Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Obsidian

FX Thoughts of the Day

Recommended Posts

During days like this, I just sit back and watch. It is hard to predict how markets will react to important news. Don't have to be in the market all the time ;)

We are around key levels, let's see how this week will end. I will update my charts tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: Basically we have gone nowhere...We are stuck between 1.3230 and 1.3030 range for last 7-8 days. Now this week we can go either way. I think we will break 1.3230 resistance and climb somewhere around 1.3340 first and then 1.3540. After that point we will move all the way down, back to 1.2600. This is just a technical guess of course. Prices will tell us what will happen next. I will be watching 1.3230 and 1.3000 levels to go long or short.

 

GBP/USD: The pair was able to break and close above 1.5770 resistance. This is a bullish sign but I also see that bears are increasing their pressure. I expect this week's range will be 1.5941 and 1.5650.

 

USD/CAD: I had said "I am bearish as long as we are trading below 1.0150. If the pair goes below the parity, it may increase the selling pressure, next targets are 0.9905 and 0.9740/05.". This is still valid.

 

USD/CHF: The pair is consolidating between 0.9220 and 0.9105. I do not see any big changes in technical levels. Close above 0.9220 would indicate that it is going to try 0.9315. If it breaks 0.9080, we will probably see 0.8950/30 next.

05feb.thumb.jpg.d45b05161026b6eda00b4620e6a168f4.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is moving the market:

€/$ climbs on press report the Greek government says it is working on a final draft of a bailout deal. To be presented to political leaders for approval later today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
missed the entry level for gbp/usd...

eur/usd: 1st target is 1.3430, next 1.3550

 

1/2 closed for 112 pips...the rest, holding for the next targets

 

USD/CHF: 0.9105 support is holding today. wouldn't be surprised if the pair makes another attack to 0.9225...still not trading this pair until it closes below 0.9105 or above 0.9225

 

GBP/USD: 1.5900/40 zone is giving bulls a tough time...

08feb.jpg.257224ad36f0c018d48c851944baa497.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Market is waiting for ECB and MPC statements, lets see how market will react...

 

USD/CAD is stuck in a small range for last 4 days, attempts to pass the parity failed...if the bulls can pass 1.0000, 1.0070 and 1.0180 might be possible...if the bear manage to break 0.9900 then the pair will head to 0.9790...

 

USD/CHF is trying to stay above 0.9105 level..still waiting for a clear direction, watching the battle between buyers and sellers is pretty boring though...

 

EUR/USD: people are waiting for rate statement, for now staying above 13240 is positive. if ECB does not make any surprise, 1.3430 is possible before the week ends. I do not think we will see the pair going below 1.3050 this week. If the pair closes below 1.2900, I will be following the bears...

 

GBP/USD: watch for ema(34) on 4h charts. little is expected from BoE, if the pair slips below 1.5770, selling pressure will increase

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bank of England:

Policy Left Unchanged (rate 0.50%)

Asset Purchases higher at GBP 325 billion vs. GBP 275 billion

 

European Central Bank:

unchanged 1.00%

The press conference with President Draghi at 13:30 GMT

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like USD bulls will try to show some strength today. I might long usdchf, short gbpusd and audusd (small intra-day positions). closed the remaining eurusd long for 115 pips. don't want to risk profit before the weekend as I see there is lack of momentum to push higher...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: The pair failed to break 1.3320 resistance and also failed to close above 1.32 level. This makes me think that the pair may test 1.31 support. If it does not hold, probably it will also test 1.3020...These zones can give opportunity to go long. If we see these levels I may attempt small longs, I will not say any stop for these. However, I may reverse at 1.2970 and go short instead with 1.2630 as my target...Of course there is a slight possibility that EUR/USD will try to climb higher on Monday. If that happens, I will waiting for a breakout. If we break 1.3320, buying pressure will increase and 1.3534 will be next stop.

 

GBP/USD: The pair was able to reach 1.5927 and 1.5941 is not broken yet. It does not look so good to drop below 1.5770. 1.5725 support is holding for now but If we can't close above 1.5800/35, we will test 1.5655 level. I was telling that ema34 on 4h charts acting like s/r, so I always keep an eye on that. If 1.5655 support is not broken I expect the pair another rise to 1.58/59 level. After that the pair will head south again and go below 1.5560. A daily close above 1.5940 negates this scenario.

 

USD/CHF: As long as 0.9100 holds, the pair is heading to 0.9200/50 zone.

 

USD/CAD: If the pair can close above 1.0070, that means the bulls are taking the control again to push the pair higher. the next resistance is at 1.0150.

feb12.thumb.jpg.b2fbc7322ba4dcf33345fa096289eaa2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the tip, I will ask that to myself 10 times and I will do opposite of what I said :cool:

 

Well, the Greek austerity budget was approved by the parliament yesterday, as expected...This was a prerequisite for more aid...I think approving the austerity plan is the easy part, implementing the plans will definately be more difficult...We will see...Greece’s debt will balloon to almost twice the size of its economy in a couple of years and they will need economic growth and sucessful privatization to generate sufficient revenue to pay back...

 

Anyway, the news doesn't make the market, rather the market makes the news, so I will be following the numbers only as usual...The levels which I told in my previous post are still valid...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think today is the day to test 1.3100...Yesterday opened a short position @1.3245 and still holding it (1/2 closed and stop moved to 1.3225) for 1.3100 or 1.3020. I am currently bearish until eur/usd closes above 1.3220.

eur14feb.jpg.a78aee889fef659359f265cc07915704.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GBP/USD may go higher (to 1.5740/70 zone) before it slips to 1.5665/55.

Watch 4h chart and ema34, gives nice clue

 

gbp/usd climbed to 1.5770 and turned to south...I was able to get in @ 1.5756...closing 1/2 and moving sl to 1.5730

gbp14feb2.jpg.d3ee67989a975c222875eabcd910e4f3.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think today is the day to test 1.3100...Yesterday opened a short position @1.3245 and still holding it (1/2 closed and stop moved to 1.3225) for 1.3100 or 1.3020. I am currently bearish until eur/usd closes above 1.3220.

 

EUR/USD update: remaining closed @ 1.3111

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: Greek drama continues and the euro is falling. 1.30 level did not show any sign that it will be strong support so I joined to bears' side...If the pair closes day below 1.3000, I think we will see 1.2870 tomorrow. I had said that I was bearish until eur/usd could close above 1.3220, this is still valid...I will be selling on rallies as I don't see any fundamental or technical reason to long this pair...

 

USD/CHF: Finally the pair moved outside of the channel. It will be heading to 0.9335 as long as it can stay above 0.9250

 

GBP/USD: Until I see a daily close above 1.58, I am not thinking of longing. I am still bearish. Though my smaller time frame indicators say the pair may re-test 1.5700/20

 

USD/CAD: 1.0070 is the key level for me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: Buying the rumors selling the facts, I am not holding positions too long until we pass 1.3320 or break 1.2970. Just scalping this pair at the moment.

 

GBP/USD: Bounced nicely from daily ma(34) and closed above 1.5800...I am in as I planned..

 

USD/CHF: Failed to close above 0.9250 and we are still stuck in this 3 week band...

17feb.thumb.jpg.ff88fed0f4f1cbfe233040bec39b0c00.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD continues to trade between 1.30 and 1.3250 range. Recently, the pair has formed a couple of supportive candles on the daily chart though. So it is possible that we can see a to the upside. The headlines from the eurozone will dominate the forex market today. Investors focus will be on EU meeting on Greek bailouts. According to charts, if EUR/USD can climb above 1.3150 then we will test 1.3200 and 1.3300. However, if the pair breaks 1.3130 then it will test 1.3060 and if it does not hold we will see 1.2980 which is also the monthly pivot.

 

GBP/USD:

Last week GBP/USD bounced from 38.2 fibonacci level, also note that this level was supportive ema(34). The cable has been very strong for a while and the price action will remain bullish as long as the pair is above 1.5770/1.5800 zone. Daily chart suggests that the pair will try to break 1.5928/41 resistance. If the pair can pass that barrier then buying pressure will increase and it will probably head to 1.6038 and 1.6129 next. However if GBP/USD falls below 1.5770, then I expect a movement towards 1.5660 support. In case the bears increase their strength, we may see 1.5580 level next.

 

USD/CHF:

Even though the Swissy climbed to 0.9298 last week, it had failed to close around that level. Therefore we are still stuck in 0.9250-0.9100 range for the 3rd week in a row. Resistance at 0.9250/90 zone has been tested several times with price falling right back into its range day after day. We also see that USD/CHF continues to bounce around near the 0.9100 level as Swiss National Bank keeps the value of the Swiss franc artificially low to defend EUR/CHF 1.20 level. I expect USD/CHF stay inside this range until we close above 0.9250 or below 0.9100.

20feb.thumb.jpg.75611de2b2d6d48aebb6fa4c54c25125.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 22nd January 2025.   Netflix Earnings Surge Driving the NASDAQ to Monthly Highs!   The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day, gaining momentum after Netflix stocks rise more than 15%. Earnings reports are gaining speed for the technology sector, but why has Netflix stocks seen such a high and sudden rise in demand? Netflix Stocks Increase 15% Supporting the NASDAQ! Netflix stocks have been one of the best-performing stocks within the NASDAQ, rising more than 79% in 12 months. However, even for Netflix, a 15% rise in less than 24 hours is considered substantial. The quarterly earnings report was made public by Netflix after the market closed on Tuesday. The earnings report confirmed the following: Netflix beat their earnings per share expectations - $4.27 reported vs $4.21 expectations. Netflix’s revenue surpasses the previous quarter - $10.25 billion this quarter vs $9.82 billion in the previous quarter. The online streaming company confirms projects to expand into live sport and event streaming will proceed. In addition to this, the company’s forward guidance for 2025 remains positive. Netflix is the 10th most influential company for the NASDAQ meaning the positive earnings data and bullish price movement supports the overall price of the NASDAQ. In addition to this, the positive earnings improve the sentiment towards the entire US technology sector. Investors will now turn their attention to the quarterly earnings report for Intuitive Surgical. Intuitive Surgical stocks on Tuesday rose 1.94%. How is the Economy And Politics Affecting the NASDAQ?     The US stock market is witnessing an upward correction after struggling in the last weeks of 2024. The bullish price movement is a result of a sharp decline in bond yields, the new US administration and earnings season. Investors remain relieved that bond yields have fallen back down from the 5.00% level. If bond yields continue to decline further, particularly below 4.50%, the move would be deemed as positive for the US stock market. President Trump took office on Monday and so far the pro-US rhetoric from the President, Vice President and Secretary of State continues to support the stock market. So far, the main concern is how upcoming tariffs can negatively affect inflation and growth. However, some economists advise tariffs will become the “norm” and may have a lesser effect compared to 2018. However, this is something traders will continue to evaluate and monitor. The VIX this morning fell 0.83% lower and trades more than 5.70% lower over a 7-days. The lower VIX indicates a higher risk appetite towards the stock market. If the VIX continues to decline a strong buy indication may materialize. On the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 82% rose in value on Tuesday. However, Apple stocks, the most impactful stock, fell 3.19% due to poor sell data. If Apple stocks continue to decline, the NASDAQ’s upward trend may come under strain. In the meantime, investors over the next week will continue to monitor upcoming earnings reports. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis The price of the index is trading significantly higher than all Moving Averages on a 2-hour timeframe and relatively high on oscillators. These factors indicate that buyers are controlling the order book. However, price action also confirms the latest impulse wave measures 3.43% which is normally the point at which the index retraces. This is something that investors may also consider. The retracement potentially also may be triggered by Netflix buyers quickly selling to cash in profit after the sudden 15% bullish surge. If a retracement does indeed form, price action and the 75-period EMA indicates that the pullback may drop as low as $21,391.30.     Key Takeaways: The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day, but price action signals a possible retracement before continuing its bullish trend. Netflix stocks increase more than 15% due to strong earnings data. Netflix beat earnings and revenue expectations by 1.39% and confirmed projects to add live sports streaming to its platforms. The VIX trades more than 5.70% lower over a 7-days and US Bond Yields remain at recent lows. On the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 82% rose in value on Tuesday. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • DASH DoorDash stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?DASH
    • SYF Synchrony Financial stock with a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?SYF
    • RKLB Rocket Labstock, big rally off support and breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?RKLB
    • RDW Redwire stock, what a launch off the 14.16 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?RDW
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.