FX Thoughts of the Day

[Obsidian 10]

Looks like Bernanke didn't say anything new...still 1.32 is tough to break so closing 2/3 position here and moving sl to 1.3160

[Obsidian 10]

During days like this, I just sit back and watch. It is hard to predict how markets will react to important news. Don't have to be in the market all the time

We are around key levels, let's see how this week will end. I will update my charts tomorrow.

[Obsidian 10]

EUR/USD: Basically we have gone nowhere...We are stuck between 1.3230 and 1.3030 range for last 7-8 days. Now this week we can go either way. I think we will break 1.3230 resistance and climb somewhere around 1.3340 first and then 1.3540. After that point we will move all the way down, back to 1.2600. This is just a technical guess of course. Prices will tell us what will happen next. I will be watching 1.3230 and 1.3000 levels to go long or short.

 

GBP/USD: The pair was able to break and close above 1.5770 resistance. This is a bullish sign but I also see that bears are increasing their pressure. I expect this week's range will be 1.5941 and 1.5650.

 

USD/CAD: I had said "I am bearish as long as we are trading below 1.0150. If the pair goes below the parity, it may increase the selling pressure, next targets are 0.9905 and 0.9740/05.". This is still valid.

 

USD/CHF: The pair is consolidating between 0.9220 and 0.9105. I do not see any big changes in technical levels. Close above 0.9220 would indicate that it is going to try 0.9315. If it breaks 0.9080, we will probably see 0.8950/30 next.

[Obsidian 10]

I had 2 positions that I opened yesterday.

Seems it is time to close and collect some pips;)

usd/cad=-3

eur/usd=+32

 

now time to focus on aud/usd and gbp/usd...

[Obsidian 10]

What is moving the market:

€/$ climbs on press report the Greek government says it is working on a final draft of a bailout deal. To be presented to political leaders for approval later today.

[Obsidian 10]

Bernanke testimony is expected to start soon

 

Ben Bernanke Debates Economic Policy with Senators | C-SPAN

[Obsidian 10]

missed the entry level for gbp/usd...

eur/usd: 1st target is 1.3430, next 1.3550

[Obsidian 10]

missed the entry level for gbp/usd...

eur/usd: 1st target is 1.3430, next 1.3550

 

1/2 closed for 112 pips...the rest, holding for the next targets

 

USD/CHF: 0.9105 support is holding today. wouldn't be surprised if the pair makes another attack to 0.9225...still not trading this pair until it closes below 0.9105 or above 0.9225

 

GBP/USD: 1.5900/40 zone is giving bulls a tough time...

[Obsidian 10]

Market is waiting for ECB and MPC statements, lets see how market will react...

 

USD/CAD is stuck in a small range for last 4 days, attempts to pass the parity failed...if the bulls can pass 1.0000, 1.0070 and 1.0180 might be possible...if the bear manage to break 0.9900 then the pair will head to 0.9790...

 

USD/CHF is trying to stay above 0.9105 level..still waiting for a clear direction, watching the battle between buyers and sellers is pretty boring though...

 

EUR/USD: people are waiting for rate statement, for now staying above 13240 is positive. if ECB does not make any surprise, 1.3430 is possible before the week ends. I do not think we will see the pair going below 1.3050 this week. If the pair closes below 1.2900, I will be following the bears...

 

GBP/USD: watch for ema(34) on 4h charts. little is expected from BoE, if the pair slips below 1.5770, selling pressure will increase

[Obsidian 10]

Bank of England:

Policy Left Unchanged (rate 0.50%)

Asset Purchases higher at GBP 325 billion vs. GBP 275 billion

 

European Central Bank:

unchanged 1.00%

The press conference with President Draghi at 13:30 GMT

[Obsidian 10]

Seems like USD bulls will try to show some strength today. I might long usdchf, short gbpusd and audusd (small intra-day positions). closed the remaining eurusd long for 115 pips. don't want to risk profit before the weekend as I see there is lack of momentum to push higher...

[Obsidian 10]

What is moving the market:

Greece's Laos party chief Karatzaferis: Cannot vote in favor of bailout deal

[Obsidian 10]

EUR/USD: The pair failed to break 1.3320 resistance and also failed to close above 1.32 level. This makes me think that the pair may test 1.31 support. If it does not hold, probably it will also test 1.3020...These zones can give opportunity to go long. If we see these levels I may attempt small longs, I will not say any stop for these. However, I may reverse at 1.2970 and go short instead with 1.2630 as my target...Of course there is a slight possibility that EUR/USD will try to climb higher on Monday. If that happens, I will waiting for a breakout. If we break 1.3320, buying pressure will increase and 1.3534 will be next stop.

 

GBP/USD: The pair was able to reach 1.5927 and 1.5941 is not broken yet. It does not look so good to drop below 1.5770. 1.5725 support is holding for now but If we can't close above 1.5800/35, we will test 1.5655 level. I was telling that ema34 on 4h charts acting like s/r, so I always keep an eye on that. If 1.5655 support is not broken I expect the pair another rise to 1.58/59 level. After that the pair will head south again and go below 1.5560. A daily close above 1.5940 negates this scenario.

 

USD/CHF: As long as 0.9100 holds, the pair is heading to 0.9200/50 zone.

 

USD/CAD: If the pair can close above 1.0070, that means the bulls are taking the control again to push the pair higher. the next resistance is at 1.0150.

[mohsinqureshii 10]

Ask 10 small traders what should be the strategy to do in the market and do against them. this is what Big traders do.

[Obsidian 10]

Thanks for the tip, I will ask that to myself 10 times and I will do opposite of what I said

 

Well, the Greek austerity budget was approved by the parliament yesterday, as expected...This was a prerequisite for more aid...I think approving the austerity plan is the easy part, implementing the plans will definately be more difficult...We will see...Greece’s debt will balloon to almost twice the size of its economy in a couple of years and they will need economic growth and sucessful privatization to generate sufficient revenue to pay back...

 

Anyway, the news doesn't make the market, rather the market makes the news, so I will be following the numbers only as usual...The levels which I told in my previous post are still valid...

[Obsidian 10]

I think today is the day to test 1.3100...Yesterday opened a short position @1.3245 and still holding it (1/2 closed and stop moved to 1.3225) for 1.3100 or 1.3020. I am currently bearish until eur/usd closes above 1.3220.

[Obsidian 10]

GBP/USD may go higher (to 1.5740/70 zone) before it slips to 1.5665/55.

Watch 4h chart and ema34, gives nice clue

[Obsidian 10]

GBP/USD may go higher (to 1.5740/70 zone) before it slips to 1.5665/55.

Watch 4h chart and ema34, gives nice clue

 

gbp/usd climbed to 1.5770 and turned to south...I was able to get in @ 1.5756...closing 1/2 and moving sl to 1.5730

[Obsidian 10]

gbp/usd closed @1.5670

done for today;)

[Obsidian 10]

I think today is the day to test 1.3100...Yesterday opened a short position @1.3245 and still holding it (1/2 closed and stop moved to 1.3225) for 1.3100 or 1.3020. I am currently bearish until eur/usd closes above 1.3220.

 

EUR/USD update: remaining closed @ 1.3111

[Obsidian 10]

What is moving the market:

EUR/USD falls on report eurozone finance ministers considering proposal to delay all or part of Greek bailout...

[Obsidian 10]

EUR/USD: Greek drama continues and the euro is falling. 1.30 level did not show any sign that it will be strong support so I joined to bears' side...If the pair closes day below 1.3000, I think we will see 1.2870 tomorrow. I had said that I was bearish until eur/usd could close above 1.3220, this is still valid...I will be selling on rallies as I don't see any fundamental or technical reason to long this pair...

 

USD/CHF: Finally the pair moved outside of the channel. It will be heading to 0.9335 as long as it can stay above 0.9250

 

GBP/USD: Until I see a daily close above 1.58, I am not thinking of longing. I am still bearish. Though my smaller time frame indicators say the pair may re-test 1.5700/20

 

USD/CAD: 1.0070 is the key level for me

[Obsidian 10]

EUR/USD: Buying the rumors selling the facts, I am not holding positions too long until we pass 1.3320 or break 1.2970. Just scalping this pair at the moment.

 

GBP/USD: Bounced nicely from daily ma(34) and closed above 1.5800...I am in as I planned..

 

USD/CHF: Failed to close above 0.9250 and we are still stuck in this 3 week band...

[Obsidian 10]

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD continues to trade between 1.30 and 1.3250 range. Recently, the pair has formed a couple of supportive candles on the daily chart though. So it is possible that we can see a to the upside. The headlines from the eurozone will dominate the forex market today. Investors focus will be on EU meeting on Greek bailouts. According to charts, if EUR/USD can climb above 1.3150 then we will test 1.3200 and 1.3300. However, if the pair breaks 1.3130 then it will test 1.3060 and if it does not hold we will see 1.2980 which is also the monthly pivot.

 

GBP/USD:

Last week GBP/USD bounced from 38.2 fibonacci level, also note that this level was supportive ema(34). The cable has been very strong for a while and the price action will remain bullish as long as the pair is above 1.5770/1.5800 zone. Daily chart suggests that the pair will try to break 1.5928/41 resistance. If the pair can pass that barrier then buying pressure will increase and it will probably head to 1.6038 and 1.6129 next. However if GBP/USD falls below 1.5770, then I expect a movement towards 1.5660 support. In case the bears increase their strength, we may see 1.5580 level next.

 

USD/CHF:

Even though the Swissy climbed to 0.9298 last week, it had failed to close around that level. Therefore we are still stuck in 0.9250-0.9100 range for the 3rd week in a row. Resistance at 0.9250/90 zone has been tested several times with price falling right back into its range day after day. We also see that USD/CHF continues to bounce around near the 0.9100 level as Swiss National Bank keeps the value of the Swiss franc artificially low to defend EUR/CHF 1.20 level. I expect USD/CHF stay inside this range until we close above 0.9250 or below 0.9100.

[Obsidian 10]

What is moving the market:

EU finance ministers reached deal for Greece with total financing of €130billion; debt to GDP target of 121% by 2020