Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Obsidian

FX Thoughts of the Day

Recommended Posts

New day, new signals :) Let's see what we will have today...

If USD/CAD can't move above 1.0150, selling pressure may increase and may test 1.0040..if bulls take the control, 1.0240

short term is pointing north atm hmmm...

cad1.thumb.jpg.2095e1866ef6b43c2c0e269cb956c882.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is moving the market:

The euro rallied broadly on Wednesday after a ratings agency appeared to soften its stance regarding its outlook on Italy, while a media report that the IMF would boost its funding capabilities also pushed the single currency higher.

(source:reuters)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

USD/CHF is sitting on its trend line, a close below 0.94 may push the pair to 0.9315...

I guess the market wants to test 1.20 level, EUR/CHF...I am thinking of longing if that happens...

Any thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Asia session was pretty boring, hope we can see some action after London open...

 

It was not a surprise to see 1.2980 (my guess was 1.2970) after eur/usd was able to pass 1.2820...for now I prefer to wait and see what will happen today.

 

Most pairs are at support/resistance levels so don't want to get caught in a bull-bear battle:o

20jan.thumb.jpg.7e1ec55aee177f35b815cc1f6044ba6c.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

next week EUR/USD will probably try to test 1.3121 level as long as we don't sink below 1.2820 area...If we get very good news from the eurozone, we may even see 1.3260. if the pair fails to stay above 1.2965 level the outlook will remain bearish and we may be back to 1.2634 and then 1.2454 level...

 

GBP/USD is in a better shape. Maybe EUR/GBP is helping as well, 0.8370 acts a strong resistance atm. Anyway, I think GBP/USD will test and 1.5587 first and then 1.5670, even 1.5771. However if we go back below 1.5490 I guess things will turn to bearish and we may see 1.5400 and maybe 1.5200.

weekly21jan.thumb.jpg.12819f762916a62db2f55fb6f6627188.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The market is still very sensible to the news from the eurozone. Yesterday EUR/USD climbed after eurozone finance ministers reached agreement on fund treaty; ESM can make loans without unanimous government backing. Later, EUR/USD slid on news that euro zone finance ministers had sent back for further negotiations a debt restructuring offer from private Greek bondholders. Meanwhile, Germany denied a report that it was ready to boost the combined firepower of the eurozone's rescue funds to €750 billion.

 

If we hear good news, EUR/USD will try 1.3084 and 1.3120/50 levels. Today’s expected range is 1.2907-1.3150. If we go below 1.29, the pair will head to 1.2802 and maybe 1.2730.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think USD/CHF will test 0.9315/55 today. Selling pressure will increase if the pair can’t stay above 0.9390 (0.9230 and 0.9150 will be the next targets).

 

Meanwhile, EUR/CHF is coming closer to 1.20 area and SNB will defend this level for sure.

24janusdchf.jpg.554dbb3def501d218b2183815936b17b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

USD/CAD is consolidating between 1.0150 and 1.0050. The pair does this often and explode in a direction...Waiting for that to happen.

 

EUR/USD is losing its momentum but German Ifo business climate data and the fomc meeting will move the market for sure...if we can pass 1.3120, look for 1.3260...if we go below 1.2960, that means we may test 1.2820.

 

USD/CHF will try to move above 0.9300/15, if it fails I expect to see some support at 0.9225. If it is broken, then 0.9160 is the next target. If the bulls break through 0.9300/15, 0.9360 and 0.9405 will be the levels for bears to defend.

 

GBP/USD is bullish but we are right below a strong resistance area; 1.5650/70...if it breaks, the cable will head to 1.5840...if it falls below 1.5587/78, we will possibly see support at 1.5500

 

I think we may see some retracement today...I am only keeping a long position which I opened earlier (eur/chf)

25jan.thumb.jpg.e619c88eb4df8fc4eb7807da13b4875c.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is moving the market:

 

BOE Policy Vote

Tighten = 0 Unchanged = 9 Ease = 0

 

UK GDP

qq: -0.2% vs. -0.1% expected vs. +0.6% previous

yy: +0.8% vs. +0.8% expected vs. +0.5% previous

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

USD/CAD made its move...The pair climbed and tested 1.0150 area, then the bears showed their strength and pushed USD/CAD below 1.0050. Even though 1.0000 level looks like the first support now (and it may bounce to 1.0070 from there), the pair is probably headed to 0.9900.

 

USD/CHF is coming closer to next support zone, but the outlook will remain bearish unless it can trade over 0.9300 again. (check chart for next s/r levels)

 

EUR/USD may pull back to 1.3050 before it breaks 1.3120 barrier. I will be looking to buy on dips as long as we stay above 1.2900.

 

If we can stay above 1.5630/00 GBP/USD will test 1.5770. As long as it stays over 1.55, I am bullish

 

Meanwhile, watching EUR/CHF. Thinking of going long 1.2000/50 (with a stop at 1.1970).

26jan.thumb.jpg.e86fea11ec4f70c73df585ce1ab7a743.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

USD/CAD: 1.0000 is holding for now and the pair may bounce back to 1.0070. I am bearish as long as we are trading below 1.0150. If the pair goes below the parity, it may increase the selling pressure, next targets are 0.9905 and 0.9740/05.

 

USD/CHF: The pair will continue to dive unless it can't trade above 0.9300 area. 0.9080 looks like the nearest support. If that support is broken, I will be looking for 0.8930 and 0.8765

 

EUR/USD: Charts show that the market is buying the pullbacks at the moment and first resistance in front of us is 1.3240/60 area. 1.3395 is the next and tougher one. If the pair goes lower, 1.3115 will be first support level. I doubt if we will see 1.3020-1.2960 zone next week but anyway I guess that zone will show strong support. I am bullish as long as we trade above 1.2950.

 

GBP/USD: 1.5770 is a strong resistance so it may push the pair back to 1.5650/20. If bullish momentum continues, we will see 1.5900. 1.5580 is an important level to watch for next week/month. If the pair can't pass 1.58 and falls below 1.5580, we may go back to 1.54

29jan.thumb.jpg.529d4ba04f68f09d260973adc938fade.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

USD/CAD: Bounced back to 1.0070 and headed to parity again. Waiting for a breakout to confirm the direction. Yesterday's candle shows that the usd bulls are not so strong though.

 

USD/CHF: The pair seems to be consolidating between 0.9200 and 0.9100. Close above 0.9225 would indicate that it is going to try 0.9315. If it breaks 0.9080, we will probably see 0.8950/30 next.

 

EUR/USD: 1.3100 support is holding but the bulls still have to break 1.3230 resistance first. News from the eurozone will determine the next levels. Levels which I mentioned in the previous post are still valid.

 

GBP/USD: Yesterday GBP/USD tested 1.5650 support as expected and now headed towards 1.5770 resistance. Let's see how the battle between bulls and bears will end at that level.

31jan.thumb.jpg.42d92879ef4470e3488d3e5d73bd0b64.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

USD/CAD: The pair can't pass 1.0070 so it slipped below parity...

 

USD/CHF: 0.9225 is a tough nut as we can see. So I am going with the bears...

 

GBP/USD: 1.5770 is broken and I am following the bulls...

 

EUR/USD: 1.3230 is still a strong barrier so I am not touching this pair at the moment...

1feb.thumb.jpg.5a6dcc84e0e1f09ed2fab07fe215117f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • CVNA Carvana stock, nice top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
    • GDRX GoodRx stock, good day, watch for a bottom range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?GDRX
    • Date: 14th February 2025.   Can The NASDAQ Maintain Momentum at Key Resistance Level?     The price of the NASDAQ throughout the week rose more than 3.00% to bring the price back up to the instrument’s resistance level. However, while taking into consideration higher inflation, tariffs and the resistance level, could the index maintain momentum?   US Inflation Rises For a 4th Consecutive Month The US Consumer Price Index, or inflation, rose for a 4th consecutive month taking the rate even further away from the Federal Reserve’s target. Analysts were expecting the US inflation rate to remain unchanged at 2.9%. However, consumer inflation rose to 3.00%, the highest since July 2024, while Producer inflation rose to 3.5%. Higher inflation traditionally triggers lower sentiment towards the stock market as investors' risk appetite falls and they prefer the US Dollar. However, on this occasion bullish volatility rose. For this reason, some traders may be considering if the price is overbought in the short term.   Addressing these statistics, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Fed has yet to achieve its goal of curbing inflation, adding further hawkish signals regarding the monetary policy. Other members of the FOMC also share this view. Today, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, stated that the Fed is unlikely to implement interest rate cuts in the near future. This is due to ongoing economic uncertainty following the introduction of trade tariffs on imported goods and other policies from the Republican-led White House.   Most of the Federal Open Market Committee emphasizes additional time is needed to fully assess the situation. According to the Chicago Exchange FedWatch Tool, interest rate cuts may not start until September 2025.   What’s Driving The NASDAQ Higher? Earnings data this week has continued to support the NASDAQ. Early this morning Airbnb made public their quarterly earnings report whereby they beat both earnings per share and revenue expectations. The Earnings Per Share read 25% higher than expectations and Revenue was more than 2% higher. As a result, the stock rose more than 14%. Another company this week that made public positive earnings data is Cisco which rose by more than 2% on Thursday. Another positive factor continues to be the positive employment data. Even though the positive employment data can push back interest rate cuts, the stability in the short term continues to serve the interests of higher consumer demand. The US Unemployment Rate fell to 4.00% the lowest in 8 months. Lastly, investors are also increasing their exposure to the index due to sellers not being able to maintain control or momentum. Some economists also increase their confidence in economic growth if Trump can obtain a positive outcome from the Ukraine-Russia negotiations.   However, during Friday’s pre-US session trading, 80% of the most influential stocks are witnessing a decline. The NASDAQ itself is trading more or less unchanged. Therefore, the question again arises as to whether the NASDAQ can maintain momentum above this area.   NASDAQ - News and Technical analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ is largely witnessing mainly bullish indications on the 2-hour chart. However, the main concern for traders is the resistance level at $21,960. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is mainly experiencing bearish signals as the price moves below the 200-period simple moving average.   The VIX, which is largely used as a risk indicator, is currently trading 0.75% higher which indicates a lower risk appetite. In addition to this, bond yields trade 6 points higher. If both the VIX and Bond yields rise further, further pressure may be witnessed for index traders.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • LUNR Intuitive Machines stock watch, attempting to move higher off 18.64 support, target 26 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?LUNR
    • CNXC Concentrix stock watch, pullback to 47.16 triple support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?CNXC
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.