EURUSD Et Al Trading

[sdmdad72 10]

I have recently started to trade EURUSD (mostly scalping) so that is what attracted me to this thread. As a new trader who is not familiar with market profile, I don't think I can contribute to your thread at this time except to say that I appreciate the your posts and charts. Especially the more recent postings (I have not read every posting) since I may have actally traded the EURUSD on those day. I got the PDFs that you posted (posting #190) and will take a look at them later.

 

I guess I would like to know how successful you are in trading with this approach? Do you ever trade late at night (say 2:00 - 5:00 am CST) and does your approach perform as well during these lower volume hours?

[slick60 10]

I have recently started to trade EURUSD (mostly scalping) so that is what attracted me to this thread. As a new trader who is not familiar with market profile, I don't think I can contribute to your thread at this time except to say that I appreciate the your posts and charts. Especially the more recent postings (I have not read every posting) since I may have actally traded the EURUSD on those day. I got the PDFs that you posted (posting #190) and will take a look at them later.

 

I guess I would like to know how successful you are in trading with this approach? Do you ever trade late at night (say 2:00 - 5:00 am CST) and does your approach perform as well during these lower volume hours?

 

Hi sdmdad

Note the thread is called EURUSD et al. Maybe you could contribute something from your work over the past few years that would help here too. I am really glad to see that you downloaded the PDF files but am sad to hear that you will "look at them later". I feel the information in them will remove many shades of gray in market understanding which is what I think we all need to do. To understand how the market moves is critical to becoming a confident trader. Market profile will do that for you with some understanding. For $249.00 you can buy the TPO software here Final - Home and produce the same profile charts as me on a Ninja Trader platform which is free. There is also a 7 day free trial of the software.

You mention trading hours of 2 to 5am CST. That is prime time for currency trading. Setting up and encompassing the London open at 3am EST is in my opinion crucial to what happens for the rest of the day. We have to realize that we are in a 24 hour market and BIG MONEY can move the market whenever it chooses. There are many moves during the Asian session from 5:00 pm EST until 2:00am. It costs less to make a move when there is no competition. Will my approach work then? It will work when the criteria is met as I continue to show. These trades occur when there is a consensus of market direction and mostly culminating with the completion of a bell curve. This is shown in the volume at price. These are like your triangle or wedge formations that one sees in bar charts.

Each man has his own measure of success. A short answer here would be yes, but there are so many qualifiers that one needs to know in order not to be misled. Please take what you see and employ it patiently in a demo mode to measure your own success. There are no freebies and quickies to riches in market trading. My trading is continually evolving and has now come to a point where I think I am as close as one will ever get to the "Holy Grail" of market trading. With this thread I am trying hard to carve years of research and hunting that I have gone through from your search for the HG. Just DO IT and PROVE IT!.

I include here the 6E futures (EURUSD) trade for Friday. Everything that I look for in my "trading edge" check list were there. I don't think it can get any better than this.

 

Good luck trading everyone

 

2012-04-15_0938 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Two snaps here show a candle daily chart with my Delta cycles on it. It depicts in bar form what is show basically on the 6E Profile Composite snap.

Using what you see tells me that we are into an area of uncertainty with regard to the red MTD delta points as it is within an inversion time period where the points may invert from even numbers on top to the bottom and vice versa. The red boxed area on this chart is what the profile depicts. This is the area that we want to be concerned with at present.

A mody, mini-mody bell curve profile will complete development in the price range shown before making a decisive move north or south. BIG MONEY will show you their footprints when this is about to/taking place with volume from the high volume mode. That will be when all time frames will jump on board and create a new Step one trade. It will be the "Go With" trade.

One must remember that at any given time anything can happen and it only takes 1 trader somewhere in the world to make your trade look like stink.

I don't know where I can find information that I am sharing here and if anyone could direct me to such a site I would really appreciate it. I am always interested in learning.

 

Let's make some money this week folks

 

slick

[Mysticforex 13]

There was an excellent article today, Avoiding the Euro Trap Zone by Andy Xie. The entire article is a good read, but I wish to touch some of the major points.

 

Mr Xie who was the former Chief Economist for Morgan Stanley in the Asia Pacific from 1997 to 2006 said:

 

"Europe's problems are its own making and no amount of Chinese assistance will end the crisis.........China Shouldn't Get Involved...

Edited April 20, 2012 by Mysticforex

[Fatechaser 10]

End of week greetings -- not much active trades worth posting here yet as I've chosen

to remain very distant from old trading habits that too often distract and detract from

a developing new means of little reliance on the traditional lagging indicators I've

lived by for several years -- their use will not be discarded, however.

But to be plugged in to the MP means of reading market timing. Once more reasonably

grasped the use of MACD histograms for example will aid in confirming day or swing trades--

along with of course a few others eg. mas, WRs, TLs -- and such.

 

Here's a neat little article and interview I've just found to help clarify the above.

A 2005 interview w Peter Steidlmayer -- he was asked:

How do you compare Market Profile to traditional price based technical analysis?

 

Short and sweet couple of pages.

 

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?postid=921848

 

(will try to load as attachment as well)

 

 

 

Also I had much difficulty retrieving a Steidlmayer 90 min. video recorded last summer

for anyone wishing to bear up to his dry exchanges and what seems abstract for anyone totally unfamiliar with this incredibly gifted man's research and background with the MP development of his last 20 years.

--- perhaps the link had become corrupted.

Here's one the works well for me

 

Steidlmayer Volume Strips: J. Peter Steidlmayer

 

hope to post real time charts next week --

 

make luck happen

 

FC

[Fatechaser 10]

Trying out this to test viewing of screen shot.

.

retraces this Friday leading into the US GDP advance report. (78.6 so far of 3262 high)

a turn in this ascending 4 hr channel is due soon -- yet not confirmed if this dip below

3172 is a fake out or beginning of test of 2994/3000

 

this chart should show up with a 15 min MP session shaping (futures)

and a view of the forex with an M pattern forming (retesting the am high of 3243)

 

opportunity for a morning trade in the making -- I will short this with macd histos and

mas beginning to roll over.

 

2012-04-12_1646 - DCMCG's library

 

first want to see this posted

 

FC

[Fatechaser 10]

Here's that 4 hr channel with a 15 min forex pattern in process --

note the M in formation with rolling indies

 

2012-04-27_0739 - DCMCG's library

 

(hope this shows OK -- still takes quite a spell for my posts to show up here)

 

decent scalps so far

 

FC

[Fatechaser 10]

Please disregard the chart in the 7:19 post this morning ---

 

should have been this one --which shows a developing M which eventually proved

false --- you must tread lightly until volume settles down and some confirming signal

contributes to the step one imbalanced break out -- while this pattern to me looked

promising for scalping other studies did not clearly set up --such as crossover mas,

clear break below the pausing balancing attempts you see here

 

2012-04-27_0700 - DCMCG's library

 

or whatever one uses w/o over complicating the combos of lagging indicators

 

My efforts to shed over speculating as to what I think I see and feel

focuses now on incorporating how the horizontal MP develops once the initial session step at last settles out.

Then to make use of indicators that so often only describe that which has happened.

 

They do assist the MP steps 2 - 4 -- and serve to confirm even the easy quick day trade or scalps

 

FC

 

PS please Mr and Ms moderators let me place these posts after composing them without

reviewing for so long.

[slick60 10]

Here's that 4 hr channel with a 15 min forex pattern in process --

note the M in formation with rolling indies

 

2012-04-27_0739 - DCMCG's library

 

(hope this shows OK -- still takes quite a spell for my posts to show up here)

 

decent scalps so far

 

FC

 

Hey FC, Welcome aboard. Nice to see someone else using delta points on the 4 hour charts. I don't see the "M" that you are referring to though. Also good to see that someone has picked up on the value using market profile.

Good trading to you.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Please disregard the chart in the 7:19 post this morning ---

 

 

 

2012-04-27_0700 - DCMCG's library

 

 

 

 

FC

 

PS please Mr and Ms moderators let me place these posts after composing them without

reviewing for so long.

 

FC

I agree with you here about the posting???????????????? I replied to a thread of yours yesterday which you had already corrected and it pops up today before my response. Come on TL people - No wonder traders do not want to post OR have they been and the powers to be have never posted.

This is like Bush's Home Security crap.

 

slick60

[Mysticforex 13]

@Fatechaser...

 

Until a member has 5+ ( if memory serves ) posts, each post must be read by a MOD before it appears on the board. I see you now have 6 posts so they should appear right away. If you have a problem, send a PM to a Moderator and they should clear it up.

[Fatechaser 10]

thanks much Mr. Slick and Mystic

 

I'm actually quite cool with it -- perhaps the posting criteria keeps out the Yahoos.

 

I'd lived and died with forums during my first few years of forexing -- and so many

easily deteriorate awash with nonsense repartee

 

The occasional thread does shine, however.

 

This one has immense potential to make a huge difference --

but we have a caravan load of homework to get up to speed grasping how

to read and use MP analyses in tandem with some of our oldie indicators.

These indies can be revamped, tho.

 

Eg.--- use of the Williams R on certain charts (15min)

--- when to deem it as an OS or OB sign to complement a trade choice or when it shows only strength or weakness in a move and to not confirm as OS or OB.

 

The launch of a trade however must begin within a session displaying a MP pattern developing after a first step (step 1 of 4 in the forming of a bell or D shaped curve)

-- for ex. a step 1 the begins developing a step 2 shape within a high and low extreme or

extention. But premature to a fully developed bell curve -- another new high or low accelerates either within a market session or beginning into a next session ( ie fr a Europe to a US session)

This developing step 2 or 3 of the above example surges into a new step one

-- P Steidlmayer calls this Minus Development --

Just re-read the 22 pg article recommended in former posts.

 

Learning to rely on how profiles develop and in their relationship to volume can and will become the most important tool in when and where to minimize risk.

And most important greater assist us in gauging real clues as to what Market Maker

false or manipulated moves do to a candle or bar pattern -- (for ex.) -- a real M or W to trade the retraces of a day's high and low .

 

Today the MMs really thru a head faker at us in the Euro/USD

I compliment Mr. Slick for what he's offered here --that's begun my process of

MP use -- it gave me a measure of extra confidence to take a couple of quick winners

scalped out -- and to stay the course long enough to gain a nice piece of the 70+p

swoon south -- I'll make up some charting overlaps to illustrate.

 

Novices can be successful too

 

FC

[Fatechaser 10]

Here's these overlaps -- useful for taking scalp trades for 5,10+ pips or ticks

 

and/or an easy 30 or 40+ trade or more if one risks a higher entry abv. 3265

depends on how savvy your feel for the overall action leading into this M patten

 

This move leading into 8:00am was a manipulated ploy to pull in long accumulating

traders expecting a further breakout high continuation.

The false data pauses in each 15 min candle fr 4 to 4:15 held back higher movemt.

as if to say buying energy is building.

Then MMs allowed and motivated a drop of 30 ticks or so and began pushing north again

--gathering more buyers for 3 hrs leading into the US mk open.

10:00am manufacturing news reports -- and they false spike for another pseudo break

away high --- and slam bam --a who cares news excuse.

And now they clean up the suckers --forcing mass exit a la the 2 min extreme vol bars.

The longs must dump in high anxiety exiting.

 

"Churned and burned em again didn't we gang"

 

 

2012-05-01_1258 - DCMCG's library

 

 

(hope this comes out OK)

 

worked nicely for me today for a 40p winner

 

FC

Edited May 1, 2012 by Fatechaser

[slick60 10]

Here's these overlaps -- useful for taking scalp trades for 5,10+ pips or ticks

 

and/or an easy 30 or 40+ trade or more if one risks a higher entry abv. 3265

depends on how savvy your feel for the overall action leading into this M patten

 

This move leading into 8:00am was a manipulated ploy to pull in long accumulating

traders expecting a further breakout high continuation.

The false data pauses in each 15 min candle fr 4 to 4:15 held back higher movemt.

as if to say buying energy is building.

Then MMs allowed and motivated a drop of 30 ticks or so and began pushing north again

--gathering more buyers for 3 hrs leading into the US mk open.

10:00am manufacturing news reports -- and they false spike for another pseudo break

away high --- and slam bam --a who cares news excuse.

And now they clean up the suckers --forcing mass exit a la the 2 min extreme vol bars.

The longs must dump in high anxiety exiting.

 

"Churned and burned em again didn't we gang"

 

 

2012-05-01_1258 - DCMCG's library

 

 

(hope this comes out OK)

 

worked nicely for me today for a 40p winner

 

FC

 

FC - it is nice to hear that this way of trading seems to be working out for you. Good to see someone besides me posting here.

Your url snap of your charts does not display for me and I presume for everyone reading here. I have reproduced my charts that I think you refer to trying to show what you have stated in your posts. I have labelled the trades and break down of what took place to institute those trades. I hope this is what you were trying to show.

 

I am starting to get along in years and it is hard for me to pick up all the signals to enter a trade. We all know it is easy in hindsight BUT the real time charts seem to hide the signals as they occur. This is not the case!.

I would be interested in anyone in the EST time zone who would be interested in trading with me as extra sets of eyes on Skype to be able to execute these entries with more precision. Please send me a PM or if you already have Skype - just skype me.

 

Thanks again for your participation and good luck with your trading FC

 

2012-05-02_0637 - slick60's library

 

Good trading everyone

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Here is a potential trade that I just took looking for a reaction north. Accompanied is a profile composite of an auction that started from the Feb 24 high. It shows the area we are in and now to see if it works. I have a 12 pip stop in place.

 

2012-05-02_0857 - slick60's library

 

slick60

 

Note - this is a feeling the waters kind of trade with the bell curve "b" pattern still to be completed. 5-10 pips on a futures position is fine for this trade to me while I wait to see what the move will be out of the completed bell curve in the "b". Nice to see the proof of the trade in the rear view mirror when taken. That is what the 15 minute chart is about together with the market profile. I missed the ideal entry from the 12 range chart at 1.3126 - I was distracted at the time.

Edited May 2, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

We are doing a retrace of the move in euro which began Feb 24-12 I feel. That is what the composite profile shows. EVERYONE knows that we are making a narrowing triangle that should come down to the 1.3000 major quarter point. It bothers me that we turned right at the down trend line from that high (since everyone knows it should of) and went south with such gusto. The people with money are not in the habit of rewarding EVERYONE and what should happen generally rarely happens. Have they changed their ways? Are they repenting for their sinful acts and rewarding the little guy finally?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO - they will not do that!

The 4 hour chart I show here makes me a bit leary yet as the No. 2 low is not due until 9pm this evening. Although this is in the forecasting realm of things I still have to respect that possibility. I took 6 pips on my futures trade and another 14 plus pips on my forex trade to see how this develops. We have a possible EW pattern developing which would see us put in a slightly lower low today before a move north.

We are also working on delta points which are forecasting a low into the end of this week or start of next. This may come in after a retrace of the rather fast 2 day move down.

Time will tell us.

 

4hr 2012-05-02_0954 - slick60's library

Delta 2012-05-02_1005 - slick60's library

 

Steady as she goes mates!

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Shown in this snap is a developing profile of the 6E. We have had two snappy sessions to the downside and a rest is deserved. My crystal ball at present is looking behind the falling snow for a possible balanced trading session as shown with the magenta bell shape. So we need some filling in today. Where I show the open for this auction I feel may curtail the upside move today. 1.3170. Forex is 3 or 4 pips lower.

Let us see how it develops from here. What appeared to be a 9:45am possible new step 1 may turn out to be an expanding balanced trading session.

 

2012-05-02_1019 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Continuing with my last post I wanted to show how this bell curve is developing. I have split the profile approximately at the time of my last post shortly after 10 am. Do you see how each piece of the puzzle fills in with its' own bell shaped curve. This current little guy on the right looks to me that it wants to balance itself at 1.3168 continuing the fill in shape of the larger bell curve profile. I took a demo trade to show myself that it was going to do what I had posted earlier. The move north at 9:45am stunk because it spent so much time at the lower end of that period is really what made me suspicious about how it was going to react at this time.

This really should be showing a lot of value can be derived using market profile.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/c84f90b2-376d-4f08-8002-a6c1c4953e59/2012-05-02_1218.png

 

Hope this may help

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

The market profile and bell curve appear to be accommodating what I posted in #217 so far with the upper end of the profile filling to 1.3170. Note on that post the dark goldenrod colored High Volume Node at 1.3141. This has now jumped to the upside above the TPO Point of control (orange). I look for those two to come somewhat together at the completion of a bell curve shape before a new step 1 trade takes off one way or the other unless we have "minus development" in the structure. Minus being one of the 4 steps of market activity do not complete and we go directly into a step 1 which is the break out kind of move which is the most profitable and really is the "go with" trade when recognized.

Notice also that there appears what is called a bench developing at the 1.3170 level. This is an area that will normally get filled and taken out so I look for a move north perhaps after the curve completes.

The low of this auction could have been forecast in advance to within 1 pip using the "IB". That is the initial 4 brackets range combined on this 15 minute profile.

Market generated information does not lie to you. One just has to learn how to use it. I am still in that learning stage but trying to pass on some of my findings which help a lot.

 

2012-05-02_1506 - slick60's library

 

Good luck people!

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Notice in this snap if we break the auctions at the start of the U.S. session at 9:30am we can see a completed "b" pattern and a "P" pattern that is looking complete.

Now is the time I want to pay close attention to what is going on as it may bring in a sharp move. It can continue to expand the move as I have mentioned earlier but I look for something new to have conviction with it. That means show some volume with the break.

 

2012-05-02_1612 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I hope traders got a piece of the action this morning in the euro manipulation at 8:30 e.s.t.

I have health issues and was off to see my oncologist at that time of day. Damn I hate to miss a gimme!

On a nothing news item in the U.S. about a few less employment claims than expected the market makers in my humble opinion (hah - my opinion is never humble!) rammed the good news for the U.S. the wrong way with the euro. Thank you very much and turned it the right way. The move down was in a new step one of the profile extending the building lower bell curve as shown. There was immediate minus development normal market development and price shot back up on the 8:36 bar as shown on the 2 minute chart on the right. This is a profile composed from 2:00am May 2nd, the European open until the 8:30 splash. You can see the LARGER long liquidation bell curve that has developed as I posted yesterday. Also note now how the market has retraced to the 1.3180's and you can see when I merge these two split profiles together "voila" we will have nearly a perfectly completed bell curve. We have a long tail on the bottom and a long tail above in the profile which will allow it to expand if it so desires into the NFP data tomorrow morning at 8:30 am.

Chart on the left is the delta 4 hour points that I follow and you can see the 2 low certainly should be in with this boomerang north. Now we wait for the 3 high - or is it in early? - not really sure at this time because anything can happen in this market.

I am still looking for a low to come in below today's low into tomorrow to Tuesday. I sit with baited breath wondering how the market makers are going to try to get me to bend over for them once again. I will remain in the upright position!

Good luck traders!

 

2012-05-03_1655 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[macplauz 10]

EUR/USD broke out of the wedge (red lines) and headed lower with strong momentum. The market stands now under the neckline of the H&S. The market found support at the major level of 1.30, the 61.80 % retracement level (1.2955) of the upward move since middle of January and Daily Pivot Point (S3) at 1.2953. Medium support is the 100 % fib extension below 1.29. The break of the recent lows (Stop fishing) is accomplished and market is likely react/retrace from there. A typical consolidation (Bear flag with 3 swings) would indicate further momentum down. However as market has already triggered the stops under recent lows and stands at strong support the market could retrace higher. Further price action will give hints.

 

On the 1h time frame we currently have a strong resistance zone below 1.31 due to gab close, Weekly Pivot Point, 61,80 % retracement and recent consolidation. Market is likely to turn around (short term) or at least consolidate there before further upward movement.

[slick60 10]

EUR/USD broke out of the wedge (red lines) and headed lower with strong momentum. The market stands now under the neckline of the H&S. The market found support at the major level of 1.30, the 61.80 % retracement level (1.2955) of the upward move since middle of January and Daily Pivot Point (S3) at 1.2953. Medium support is the 100 % fib extension below 1.29. The break of the recent lows (Stop fishing) is accomplished and market is likely react/retrace from there. A typical consolidation (Bear flag with 3 swings) would indicate further momentum down. However as market has already triggered the stops under recent lows and stands at strong support the market could retrace higher. Further price action will give hints.

 

On the 1h time frame we currently have a strong resistance zone below 1.31 due to gab close, Weekly Pivot Point, 61,80 % retracement and recent consolidation. Market is likely to turn around (short term) or at least consolidate there before further upward movement.

 

Hi Macplauz

I am in somewhat agreement with you that the chances for a move north exist. I have included here a couple of snaps. One from an older chart with Elliott wave counts on it showing a possible (B) wave completed with a contracting triangle where the 'e' wave broke down. Not totally unusual! The 2nd snap shows my Delta points and the #1 low is due anytime now. It can come later as we are currently in a downtrend mode. As you say with a little more information we may have a chance to make a right decision. Everything looks really really bad for the euro right now so maybe it will go the other way. I like to take a contrary position most times.

 

2012-05-07_1944 - slick60's library

2012-05-07_1945 - slick60's library

 

slick 60

[Mysticforex 13]

Hi Macplauz

I am in somewhat agreement with you that the chances for a move north exist. I have included here a couple of snaps. One from an older chart with Elliott wave counts on it showing a possible (B) wave completed with a contracting triangle where the 'e' wave broke down. Not totally unusual! The 2nd snap shows my Delta points and the #1 low is due anytime now. It can come later as we are currently in a downtrend mode. As you say with a little more information we may have a chance to make a right decision. Everything looks really really bad for the euro right now so maybe it will go the other way. I like to take a contrary position most times.

 

2012-05-07_1944 - slick60's library

2012-05-07_1945 - slick60's library

 

slick 60

 

Hi Slick,

I have been reading your analysis and I like it. Simple and makes sense.

I am just wondering if different methods of analysis come to the same conclusion. On a move north, I am looking 132-134 area. What are you seeing?

[slick60 10]

Hi Slick,

I have been reading your analysis and I like it. Simple and makes sense.

I am just wondering if different methods of analysis come to the same conclusion. On a move north, I am looking 132-134 area. What are you seeing?

 

Hi Mystic

What method of analysis suggests 132-134 area for you? I can see 1.3627-32 into June should this auction continue from here.

 

slick60