EURUSD Et Al Trading

[slick60 10]

Euro 240 minute chart

 

 

[ATTACH]27525[/ATTACH]

 

 

 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and off exchange foreign currency products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Hi Gary nice to see your smiley face again. I see we had a jump over creek at the 1.3325 level this morning. However it did it following decreasing volume and decreasing open interest. Is the move sustainable do you feel? I also look at EW patterns and this at present appears to be a big a-b-c flat building. With the weak jump over creek in my mind I am looking for a possible move to the 1.3371-5 level which is the midpoint between large quarters of 1.3250 and 1.3500. It is also a 1.144 retrace of the move down from the previous 1.3321 high.

So now we look for supply to enter the picture?

On my 4 hour chart I also have a cycle high due on the present bar as I post.

Thanks for posting. I stopped by your room one day last week. Nice to see you are still there.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

EURUSD

MY oh my oh my! This market has nothing but surprises. They have become the norm. Price has a way of making one become very humble indeed!

I have here my 4 hour chart that I keep my shorter term delta cycles on. There is a high due on average on this bar that closes at 9am. HOWEVER in this move at present it will not surprise me to see that high come in sometime later today and with wondrous amazement hit 1.3371 during the 9pm bar.

You can see on the chart the way I am looking at this move in Elliott Wave terms. Upon hitting a high we would then conceivably retrace and test the 1.2975 level or lower before a possible completion of this overall move.

Let's see what price has in store for us today. Do not forget to assess your risk before entering a trade.

Best of trading to you

 

2012-02-23_0634 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[Gary Fullett 10]

Hi Gary nice to see your smiley face again. I see we had a jump over creek at the 1.3325 level this morning. However it did it following decreasing volume and decreasing open interest. Is the move sustainable do you feel? I also look at EW patterns and this at present appears to be a big a-b-c flat building. With the weak jump over creek in my mind I am looking for a possible move to the 1.3371-5 level which is the midpoint between large quarters of 1.3250 and 1.3500. It is also a 1.144 retrace of the move down from the previous 1.3321 high.

So now we look for supply to enter the picture?

On my 4 hour chart I also have a cycle high due on the present bar as I post.

Thanks for posting. I stopped by your room one day last week. Nice to see you are still there.

 

slick60

 

 

Thank you for the kind words. It's nice to be here. Several weeks ago I had an objective of 13375 to 13400 area. I do occasionally look at open interest, but it's not a factor in my trade decisions. I don't know Elliot Wave count, so I can't help you there. The light volume retest to the 13344 area today means a lack of demand at those levels and should see a retest lower before a move back up to the 13375 to 13400 area. As long as we do not get supply (large bar action and high volume to the downside), the upthrust today will act as a probe to higher levels.

 

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and off exchange foreign currency products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[slick60 10]

EURUSD

A very annoying currency pair to get a handle on. I have been trying to look at alternates for EW counts and have one that fibs out nicely on this 4 hr chart. This structure count to me looks like the best one to consider at this time. It projects a possible high into early March with the daily down trend line - upper bounds. Venturing into Utopia we find an area around 1.3585 to 1.3600 by about the end of next week. One lays out expectations for oneself and then has to deal with the disappointments that so often follow. One day I will merely trade what the tape tells me. This does occupy some of my time and gives me targets to watch price action when it gets there. If it was easy we would all be rich wouldn't we.

 

2012-02-23_1437 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[ithai 10]

Hi Slicks60

 

May I know what indicators you use on these screen.

Thanks

 

2012-02-22_0846 - slick60's library

[slick60 10]

Hi Slicks60

 

May I know what indicators you use on these screen.

Thanks

 

2012-02-22_0846 - slick60's library

 

Hi ithai

In the price panel I have 8, 20 and 34 weighted moving averages; Prior day OHLC and Pivots in Ninja Trader Indicators version 7

The 2nd panel is the PLT Trigger for NT and the 3rd panel is the PLT TRSIBBMacd for NT.

I will PM you contact details for the bottom indicators.

 

If anyone is interested in the PLT indicators I use on my charts please PM me and I will give you contact details.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

6J March Yen futures

Here is a snap of a 15 minute price chart and 1/2 hour market profile. On the market profile chart I label an EW count which is kind of cool how easy it is to see the waves in a 1/2 hour profile. What I have shown is so fibonacci related within waves it still bends my mind at times. Is this going to be a BOJ intervention of 200 plus pips or are they going to drive it further. Time will tell. You can see where there is a confluence at a .012302-04 that would possibly end a nice A-B-C come Sunday night.

One gets mesmerized myopically looking at charts and a pair that one follows while missing what is really going on. I think I need 6 monitors to see them all at once. It appears to me in hindsight now that the U.S. dollar was driven lower while the Yen was also beat up in value. I hope some of you may of caught the move in EURJPY - it was over 240 pips.

I feel it is time for a little breather in several of the currencies so expect some sideways action before a possible final pop.

 

2012-02-25_1114 - slick60's library

 

Happy trading everyone.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

6J yen futures

Since my last post was on the yen I thought I would just offer a bit of what I see in my trading and show what my entry technique looks like on market profile. Following a 125 pip rout by the BOJ during the Asian session this set-up comes at the end of a very tight 31 pip European session the way I follow the currency market. A tight balance area such as this offers opportunity on a break-out one way or the other. On the break monitor volume to see if it is increasing [momentum] through the breakout level. If it is then it becomes as Jim Dalton says a "go with" trade and monitor it for continuation. You can see where my indicators give me the set-up and how it is confirmed with the market profile. A chart with volume shows increasing volume from 8:30am forward confirming the "go with" trade. This trade after entry traveled a total of 91 pips with only 4 ticks of heat.

Friday was one fantastic day for trading. I hope everyone here got more pips than me.

I hope this may be helpful.

If there are any market profile people reading this post please offer your opinions and perhaps set-ups. Thanks

 

2012-02-26_0813 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

6E euro march futures

Here is a set-up as I use on my 15 minute charts with market profile also giving information. It is a typical London 3am open kind of move when the market is established in a trend as shown by the moving averages. The market makers or whoever will make a phony move off the Asia lows as seen with the 15 minute hammer candle and then suck in and trap traders then reverse the market. This is just another chart showing my mechanical entry method using indicators and market profile. It does work.

Also note where they turned the market for retrace north again - at the midpoint of 1.3375 area between the two large quarters.

This is basically the same picture that you would see with the EURUSD instead of the futures. Just more bang for the buck on much less margin in futures.

 

2012-02-27_1050 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[Gary Fullett 10]

Euro weekly chart

 

[slick60 10]

EURUSD

Here is a 4 hour chart that I use for my short term delta cycle. As you can see I was looking for a high to come in on Friday at the 2 high. The market was due to turn so came in one bar early which is most times normal. We moved down to the 1.3375 level which is the midpoint mentioned in previous post. Note how price was contained and reversed at one of the upper uptrend lines on Friday. The upper magenta trend line I feel is the true orthodox trend line using EW points. I feel we are completing an a-b-c pattern in the near future if not already, from the Jan 13 1.2623 low. Will the three wave move be in the form of a 3-3-3 a-b-c or the more common 3-3-5 wave pattern. Don't know for sure. I suspect it will be the latter. We have completed a 3 wave zig-zag from the low followed by an irregular 3 wave flat for a "B" wave and now I look for 5 waves up to complete the move somewhere in the 1.3585-13625 area. On the chart that would come in with the magenta t-line near Friday this week in the 6 high area. We shall see as time moves on.

This chart is another reason for me to take the short I showed above but alas I did not get it because I was in bed. You people in the GMT time zone or earlier have got it made.

 

2012-02-27_1053 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

AUDUSD 4 hr and 6A march futures

This shot is just too cool. Had to post. What an opportunity! Did I take it? Nooooooooooo! I was watching the stupid euro. Getting too old to multitask as I should be doing and missing all kinds of great opportunities. I need help. An extra pair of eyes. A trading partner. Oh well we shall struggle onward.

The fore chart shows the futures mechanical entry for the aussie trade. Long on close was a nice possible $900.00 trade for a single futures contract with $500.00 margin. All the indicators are screaming to buy. The 4 hour background chart shows where I was expecting the 2 low to come in on average with the 5am bar. Right on schedule. With this information and the technical set-up there was a high probability trade signal. I need more screens or more eyes

Sometimes the opportunity lies in something other than the fool euro.

 

2012-02-27_1337 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

6A aussie futures

Here is a market profile chart scrunched up to be able to show the total last few days of moves. Notice the opportunity today afforded by the U.S. session on the right with the market open "above the High value area". Something was different about this session open where it opened and then tested into the previous value area. Breaking above the euro session high value area and going north out of balance showed the opportunity for a long trade as noted in previous post. The blue arrows are the openings for each session shown.

The clues are there if we know where to look.

It is all soooooooooo easy in hindsight but one needs to learn somewhere.

 

2012-02-27_1459 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

6E euro futures and 6B pound futures

I always wanted to hone my trades down for my entries trying to get the top and bottom tick of the move. I know a lot of you out there attempt to do the same. I am changing my way of trading and would like to share a couple charts showing 2 trades on each for today on the 15 minute charts. These use "Lagging Indicators" that everyone knows don't work - right? Well I think they do. Depends how you use them and in what context. Define a market pattern and these are nice $500.00 to $600.00 trades with a single contract in futures. Basically no heat after entry. Find the set-up, place the trade and use a 10 tick stop. Set a limit for 10, 20, 30 - whatever pips and monitor the trade. Use a trailing stop if you like.

Looks easy doesn't it? Simple red and blue dots and red and green bars.

 

2012-02-28_1424 - slick60's library

 

Good trading everyone

slick60

[slick60 10]

AUDUSD

Thought I would update the aussie that I was looking at a couple weeks ago. We appear to be making a sideways flat correction that I expected when I posted, however we did put in a new high at a 1.144 retrace level. That seems to be the fib of choice at the moment as it has appeared twice in this correction. A third time would be to the 1.0560 area for a 'c' wave retrace. From the 1.0868 high it looks like we have a 1st wave of 5 in place and have now retraced to the .618 level of 1.0802 bang on. I was looking for a high due on average with the 9pm 4 hr bar but in a down market the turn may come early. I am looking over the next week and 1/2 to see a level in the 1.0575 hesitation zone area or at the large quarter of 1.0500.

 

4 hr chart 2012-03-01_1118 - slick60's library

daily chart 2012-03-01_1119 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

AUDUSD

The aussie appears to be cycling along quite nicely at present in the 4hr chart and has reached the 1.0575 hesitation zone level I was looking for on my last post. If we are at present making a third of five waves down we are probably due for a bit of sideways action for a 4th wave within this wave. The SITD low 8 point is due on average at 5pm EST tomorrow. We may possibly be making a pattern of an expanding triangle for a larger 4th wave. In that scenario 3 waves to the low is what I look for and then retrace north.

Looking at a larger picture of delta cycles we see that a low is due Friday or into the first portion of next week. This blue ITD 6 low is within the range of where it has appeared in the past. In a down market the point may be late and be drawn by the larger red MTD cycle which also has a low due by mid month. I am still looking for the 1.0500 large quarter to be fulfilled and possibly lower to as much as the 1.0400 level before trying for a new high if it is still in the cards.

 

4hr 2012-03-06_0609 - slick60's library

daily 2012-03-06_0620 - slick60's library

 

Good trading everyone

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

AUDUSD has moved down to and hit the 1.0525 level which is the overshoot for the large quarter at 1.0500. The profile today is rather narrow boxy with a poor low. I am looking for an ending spike perhaps down to the 1.0500 level to complete this wave down. GDP is out at 7:30pm EST tonight and may present an opportunity at that time.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

AUDUSD

Continuing with the Aussie I still feel that we will see a lower low today into the SITD 8 low point shown on the chart. Note the 50 and 618 APP levels of 1.0503 and 1.0484. These are potential targets for the 5th wave in this current third or "C" wave down measured against the 1st wave in this series starting at 1.0816. As you can see there is fib confluence around the large quarter of 1.0500 which came into play last night as I posted above. So these two levels may give us a retrace north to the next cycle high on this 4 hr chart.

Note the green 50 ema has crossed down through the red 100 ema into the blue 200 sma and the 100 ema has rolled pretty good. I see this as a sign of a weaker than expected move and lower targets may be in sight.

Watch for your chances to go long for a reasonable retrace if we do hit one of those lows later today. Employment data comes out at 7:30pm this evening and may be the next manipulative opportunity that the market makers employ.

Note the macd at the bottom of this chart. The deepest histo bar is at the low in price. Often times there will be a positive divergence in the macd with a lower price. That is what I look for to complete this portion of the move.

 

2012-03-07_0813 - slick60's library

 

slick60

 

P.S. Don't be afraid to post your comments. I feel I am out here all alone and WHY should I continue to do this?

[slick60 10]

While merging some daily profiles into weekly views I noticed a perfect example of how "Opportunity" shows itself in market profile. This example during an up trending market that has paused during Feb 21 and 22 is shown. It is what James Dalton calls the "Go with" trade. Opportunities like this are hidden to most traders following price bars or candles. I am sure there are a number of you who can catch them, however I wish to point out the benefit of using market profile for market generated information.

I hope this may help

The profile is split to enable viewing - 30 minute bar periods

slick60

Edited March 11, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

I am always looking for the highest probability trade set-ups and thought that I would share this snap of Friday's action using the 15 and 60 minute charts together with the 24 hour and 3 session market profile. It shows me how price appears in relation to the balance and value areas when price gives me an entry signal with the lagging indicators. Though lagging I feel the indicators are validated by the market profile. They are representative of what money has done in the immediate past.

This is the picture that I try to remember as it set ups in real time. As you know it is not that easy but with constant training and observation confidence can be built to take a mechanical non-emotional trade with a limit stop. In set-ups like this my stop is 10 pips. Entry is on close of the 15 minute bar.

 

2012-03-11_1104 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

For those traders who like to use indicators as I do for entry signals I would like to point out how easy it is to miss a signal depending on your chart size that you normally watch. I have several snaps taken at 7:20am this morning but showing a trade set-up from 8:15pm last night. Using the 6E euro futures I show what the market looks like now, what it was like last night and how scrunching your chart together in consolidating areas can bring your indicators to the forefront.

I was up looking for a move south but paid no mind to last night's chart. I watched a bit of TV and off to bed.

When we look in back testing we wonder "How did I miss that?" It is easy.

I don't know if this helps - it opened my eyes.

Note - this is my normal 15 minute chart screen

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

A few charts to show the aussie may be in the process of making a reverse. On the 1st chart are shown the delta cycle points and a low blue ITD 6 is due at this time. Charts 2 and 3 show the structure at present on a daily chart as a follow-up to a post I made about 4 weeks ago. I removed the bars to show the wave pattern more clearly. On the 4th chart note an SITD low 10 is due in this area.

Generally when I place labels this early they get whacked. This is a possibility that I look at presently.

Will we now make a run on the aussie to test the highs or will this develop as still an ongoing 4th wave. Only time will tell.

Note that price is reversing off the 1.0475 overshoot area below the large quarter of 1.0500.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

With a narrow Asian session of 43 pips in the 6A opportunity was set up with a "go with" trade when price broke south. The 15 minute chart shows indicator trade set-ups on the short side with the trend.

I am looking for a low this evening in the 5-9:00 pm time frame for the Aussie. There is economic news from 8-8:30 pm this evening which may provide the market makers opportunity to swing the market. Longer term cycle lows are a bit overdue so a turn is close on the horizon for a decent long trade I feel.

 

2012-03-14_0751 - slick60's library

 

happy trading everyone

 

slick60

Edited March 14, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

I know a lot of traders do not have the patience to wait for a 15 minute trade set-up and cry at having to give up sooooooo many pips from the high or the low. I know - was there - and still am to some degree. Here is a chart of the 3 minute chart I have set up to hone entries for the trade set-ups shown on the 15 minute chart in last post. I am still guided by the larger picture and rely also on market profile. This chart is scrunched more than I look at while trading in order to be able to show the above trades.

 

2012-03-14_0837 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Eleven of them - less than 12 hours old

 

2012-03-14_1423 - slick60's library

 

Slick is proud grand-daddy