EURUSD Et Al Trading

[slick60 10]

A quick post looking for a 4 hr 11 point low. Presently short at 1.2598

 

2012-07-03_0510 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

The short trade at 1.2598 worked out well with a pattern reverse below the 1.2560 level. At present I am labeling the 4 hour 11 point low as in and am now looking for higher numbers. That is provided the BIG GUYS with money do not decide to push it over a cliff at this time. I have daily point highs that I posted a few charts back that I am now looking to fulfill into Friday or the first of next week. My first fibo confluence comes in at 1.2844. That may be high for this move as I was looking for an initial 1.2824 high for retrace. Will have to wait and see what price doles out to the soothsayer.

Anything can happen and does!

 

4hr chart 2012-07-03_1147 - slick60's library

 

Happy holidays and good trading everyone

 

slick60

[Obsidian 10]

happy holiday and happy trading!

wish it was holiday here

 

my analysis says very similar indeed...after a close above 1.2700, it is likely that eur/usd will climb somewhere between 1.2840-1.2880 imvho

[slick60 10]

Like I said in my last post things appeared set for a go north unless------------- and that is what we got. The BIG BOYS slammed it south when everyone is thinking it should go north. Another expanding pattern that may find a low in the 1.2300 area before taking out the June 1 low. It will give us a chance to put in that higher move that I feel is still possible but really starts to get lost if that low is taken out. I still feel there is hope for an up market into the September time frame. My 4 hour 11 low was extended indicating lower prices to come and in they came with some pooh. We are now in to indecision time where the points can invert so waiting for a daily time frame low to come in by the 17th July.

 

4hr 2012-07-05_1429 - slick60's library

 

Good luck traders - we all need that!

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Here is a good case where "they" were pointing to the sky and I was looking up while they pulled my pants down one more time in bewildered embar-ass-ment. So goes the life of a prognosticator, soothsayer, crystal ball reader. Unfortunately that is what I have attempted to do most of my trading career. I will admit that I have found myself much more right than wrong but it really has not helped me to become a "better trader". If I can instill anything into a trader's mind set - that is to try to never come into a trading day with a bias formed for direction. Just let price do the talking and objectively follow with trade set-ups from market generated information that can be found using market profile.

I still have years of tools under my belt that I will not be able to shed. However I will try to endeavor to place the right amount of importance on them in relation to market price in my trading.

I still feel my delta timing cycles offer pretty reliable direction indication most times.Elliott wave patterns certainly exist but being able to determine when they are extending and morphing into something larger is still a mystery to most of us.

With that said - who cares? Why do I try to find reversal points in the crystal ball? I really do not know. Nobody ever says "hey what a great call" or "you really suck" or anything like that. What the hell!

Here is a 4hr chart showing potential price reversal points and a couple of fibonacci projection levels. There is a lot of confluence as price moves toward the 1.2225 area. This is an important retracement level from 2010. As you can see the 1.272 confluence level seems to have brought price to rest for the time being. The wave pattern tells me that we still have further to go and I look for that 1.2225 area low into this week coming. From that point I am still optimistic that we will see the 1.2747 level tested into the future.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/a895d890-c0e7-4f59-a528-f4bbb57d764a/2012-07-07_1412.png

 

Good trading folks. If you have something that works please post it here

Thank you

 

slick60

[MightyMouse 12]

Here is a good case where "they" were pointing to the sky and I was looking up while they pulled my pants down one more time in bewildered embar-ass-ment. So goes the life of a prognosticator, soothsayer, crystal ball reader. Unfortunately that is what I have attempted to do most of my trading career. I will admit that I have found myself much more right than wrong but it really has not helped me to become a "better trader". If I can instill anything into a trader's mind set - that is to try to never come into a trading day with a bias formed for direction. Just let price do the talking and objectively follow with trade set-ups from market generated information that can be found using market profile.

I still have years of tools under my belt that I will not be able to shed. However I will try to endeavor to place the right amount of importance on them in relation to market price in my trading.

I still feel my delta timing cycles offer pretty reliable direction indication most times.Elliott wave patterns certainly exist but being able to determine when they are extending and morphing into something larger is still a mystery to most of us.

With that said - who cares? Why do I try to find reversal points in the crystal ball? I really do not know. Nobody ever says "hey what a great call" or "you really suck" or anything like that. What the hell!

Here is a 4hr chart showing potential price reversal points and a couple of fibonacci projection levels. There is a lot of confluence as price moves toward the 1.2225 area. This is an important retracement level from 2010. As you can see the 1.272 confluence level seems to have brought price to rest for the time being. The wave pattern tells me that we still have further to go and I look for that 1.2225 area low into this week coming. From that point I am still optimistic that we will see the 1.2747 level tested into the future.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/a895d890-c0e7-4f59-a528-f4bbb57d764a/2012-07-07_1412.png

 

Good trading folks. If you have something that works please post it here

Thank you

 

slick60

 

Right or wrong I give you a lot of credit for showing what you would do before the fact. It takes a certain level of humility that most guys on these threads do not have.

 

What works? I stick to following the direction and expecting that direction to continue. The euro is and has been screaming long term short to me. I have been short, have added to my short, and will add again to my short when and if we get below the 1.1875 area and plan to accelerate the adds thereafter. If we begin to get a series of higher highs and higher lows, I'll exit or get stopped out BE.

 

I would hate to miss out on something that is occurring right under my nose.

[slick60 10]

It appears to me at the present time that we are currently in a corrective move which is taking on the shape of a double zig-zag in the euro. It is best observed on a 15 minute chart. We still have one leg to finish off the upside retrace which I feel will come in approximately at the 1.2338 level about 10:15-30 pm this evening. The 4 hour chart shows I am looking for a delta point high due on average on the 1am bar on the 10th.

I am still looking for a daily cycle low to come in probably by about the end of this week on Friday. We have a couple of important fibonacci retrace levels in the area of 1.2225 and 1.2057 that I feel will be tested into that time frame. The 1.2225 level is the overshoot quarter of the 1.2250 large quarter which has already been tested twice.

 

4 hr chart 2012-07-09_1858 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

We have not talked about the Aussie for a while. I have a snap showing Delta points for daily ITD and MTD below. At present we are moving up into an ITD blue 8 point high which is due on average the 27th of July but I feel it will be pulled in early regarding where the red MTD high is due around the middle of July.

In the larger terms I feel we are building a 4th wave from the April 2001 low of 0.4775. We had two equal moves up in zig-zag form and now we appear to be making a triangle type of move from the 2011 high. We will have to see how it plays out.

I am presently looking for this move to go to the 1.0472 level where we have fib confluence as shown. There may be a resting area at another fib confluence of 1.0425 area going up.

 

2012-07-16_1324 - slick60's library

 

good trading folks

 

slick60

Edited July 16, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

Taking a weeks holidiay in an hour or so but thought would update last snap of the aussie with points. Moving along as I was seeing it in last post. We are at one of those resting levels at present. May continue right straight through. Appears a very robust market at present. Monitor the action as price moves higher to see if a reverse slips in here.

 

2012-07-19_0546 - slick60's library

 

Best of luck people!

 

slick60

[Poocher 10]

Moving along just like you were seeing.

 

Happy holiday.

[slick60 10]

Howdy folks. Analyzing the aussie on my return back to the pits it would appear that we are getting very close (if not there) for a reverse in this market. A number of charts showing the various delta time counts that I follow below.

On the 4 hour chart one can see that we are nearing an area where the 1 high is due within a few bars on average. I expect that high may come in a bit early.

Moving to the daily chart the blue ITD (Intermediate term delta) 8 high was due on average on Friday. Delta / Market Matrix rule - if a turn is due the point should come in early or on time. Another rule is that there cannot be more than 3 ITD points in an MTD (Medium term delta) time period. The red MTD 3 high is coming in late drawn late by higher time frames. The blue ITD 8 is the third point and a turn is due. You can see on the daily chart chart there is a confluence of fibonacci retrace levels where we are at present. Anything can happen and does in forex however I will be betting on a turn down into the ITD 9 and the MTD 4 into August.

I am not comfortable with a wave count but it appears that a triangle may be in progress on the weekly and monthly charts. This pattern of course can morph into something other than what the crowd sees and quite often does. This is a long term pattern of retrace starting back in April of 2001 as seen on the monthly chart.

 

4 hr 2012-07-28_2022 - slick60's library

daily 2012-07-28_2023 - slick60's library

weekly 2012-07-28_2024 - slick60's library

monthly 2012-07-28_2025 - slick60's library

 

Good hunting traders and watch for the sharp shooters!

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

The Delta Phenomenon/Market Matrix is not precise. It does give a generally good direction. However at the 1st and last point of a cycle the points can invert and often do. The Aussie has this scenario at present with the red MTD points. Also note that very often with an inversion a large move will take place. Once again note the [ inversion ] points on the chart below and the large move into the [1] low point. This is a 2nd scenario that is quite possible compared to that shown in my last post. I hate the uncertainty that inversions make but have to accept what price tells me for direction as the points play out into the future.

If this proves to be the case then the blue ITD 8 high can continue higher coming in late in an up trend. Let us see what price tells us at the start of this week. Should the ITD 8 point continue higher for a couple days watch as the ITD 9 low may come early and continue the strong move north into the 10 and red MTD 4 high due near mid August.

Crystal balling is dangerous at the best of times let alone while we are in these crazy currency markets at present. The market manipulators are hard at work. Try to become a contrarian trader at news events where there are perceived "STOP zones" within easy reach.

 

daily chart 2012-07-29_0859 - slick60's library

 

Good luck folks cause we sure need it.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

The Delta Phenomenon/Market Matrix is not precise......

If this proves to be the case then the blue ITD 8 high can continue higher coming in late in an up trend. Let us see what price tells us at the start of this week. Should the ITD 8 point continue higher for a couple days watch as the ITD 9 low may come early and continue the strong move north into the 10 and red MTD 4 high due near mid August.

Crystal balling is dangerous at the best of times let alone while we are in these crazy currency markets at present. The market manipulators are hard at work. Try to become a contrarian trader at news events where there are perceived "STOP zones" within easy reach.

 

daily chart 2012-07-29_0859 - slick60's library

 

Good luck folks cause we sure need it.

 

slick60

 

At present it appears that the blue ITD 8 high is in on what looks like a narrow trading day. I tried short at the 1.0490 level and got out with a few pips. I am waiting to see if we can get a pullback to the Major midpoint / large quarter at 1.0500 again. We spent 36 minutes at that level initially, came down and crossed through to try higher. It appears that a stop and reverse zone is being built up by the bid/ask market makers as they balance their accounts. The 4 hour 1 high point appears to be in which leads me to believe that the ITD 8 has arrived. There are a number of scenarios that can play out in here near term. Let price be your guide.

 

4 hr chart 2012-07-30_1241 - slick60's library

Updated daily 2012-07-30_1242 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

This is a relentless slow move up but will correct. Perhaps we are very near to that level now. Here is a revised count of the 4 hour points as pointed out from a friend who follows this this. Hope this helps - look at the possible triple top at the inverted [1]. Are we there yet? The ITD 8 high is overdue so now leaning to the alternate 2nd look picture of the longer term points. Thank you to "Fatechaser"

 

4 hr chart 2012-07-31_0734 - slick60's library

 

Let price tell you when it has had enough!!!!!

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I believe we have a high in place for a move now into the ITD 9 low point shown on the daily chart. It is due on average on Monday the 6th. The last few retraces down have been rather fast and I suspect this one will also be the same perhaps retracing to the lower trend line shown and the .786 level. The retraces have been 3 or 4 days and with the NFP coming in on Friday that is 3 days. Would not surprise me to see the 9 low put in early. This is a strong move up and the ITD 8 was late indicating to me we have further to go into the ITD 10 high and MTD red 4. They are due about the 13th of August. The 1.0253 .786 is at a large quarter and should contain. To the upside I suspect at this time a move to the 1.0575 level which is the "hesitation zone" above the large quarter of 1.0500. The Aussie likes to turn at these zones or large quarters quite often. It fits the bill.

Let price be your guide and watch for volume increases for signs of reverse when these zones come into reach.

Note the 4 hr points chart.

 

daily 2012-07-31_2030 - slick60's library

4 hr 2012-07-31_2031 - slick60's library

 

Good trading people.

 

slick60

[MightyMouse 12]

I believe we have a high in place for a move now into the ITD 9 low point shown on the daily chart. It is due on average on Monday the 6th.

 

From your post to God's ears

[slick60 10]

From your post to God's ears

 

Hi MM

Perhaps "group prayer" may work - lol.

All kidding aside, I know that you are an apostle of higher highs and higher lows to determine the up trend which is certainly the case in the Aussie this last little while. My question to you is when do you make your entry trades to catch the train in the right direction? And when do you get off before the train derails?

Thanks

 

slick

[MightyMouse 12]

Hi MM

Perhaps "group prayer" may work - lol.

All kidding aside, I know that you are an apostle of higher highs and higher lows to determine the up trend which is certainly the case in the Aussie this last little while. My question to you is when do you make your entry trades to catch the train in the right direction? And when do you get off before the train derails?

Thanks

 

slick

 

Slick,

 

I am more interested in the dollar rising than the aussie dropping. I am short euro/usd and the dollar rising some more across all pairs would pep me up a bit.

 

As far as when do I get in and out: I get in when I am able to get in with low risk. It doesn't matter to me if I catch the whole move or get in too early or too late. What is important is that I can get in within my risk parameters and price moves away from my entry. I look at general direction then hone down to HH HL if long or LL LH if short to find a cheap entry. Entry involves, sometimes, lots of small losers, and or throwing away lots of decent gains until price moves away from my entry. As price moves away, i expand my timeframe of view and ignore the minutia. Also as price moves away, I add to my position at various times. For this particular Euro trade, it took 3 attempts to get in and have added once and my stop is better than break even so I will make something if it snaps way back.

 

Getting out is really the harder part since baked into the cake is the fact that i do not know what the market is going to do. As I add, I bring my average price closer to the current price which increases the possibility of my position being taken out break even or with a small gain if there is suddenly too much adverse volatility. I won't let a position that I have added to go negative. In the case of this trade, it is still in a monster range, bound at the bottom by 1.18. So, what feels like a down trend may really end up being just a range bound trade. My gut tells me that it will go through 1.18. My greed wants it to go through 1.18. But both have been wrong many, many times. Part of riding a nice move is focusing on the reasons to stay in the trade and ignoring the reasons to get out. This leads to being incredibly biased in the direction you are trading. If I am fortunate enough for the market to continue in the direction of my bias, then I will make a decent amount. If it decides to detour or reverse, I could get out with peanuts. On the other hand, I could make 30 to 60 cents for the penny I risked.

 

There is no magic or secret. It is confidence, patience, discipline, and luck.

[NeoTrader 10]

MM I always find your posts refreshing, to the point, and helpful.

 

thanks

[slick60 10]

I am not about to give up on placing delta points. Once again on the daily chart below you will see that I have the high of today number an ITD blue 8 high. It is late in the cycle to where it comes in on average, (frustrating as hell) however this will make the 8 point coming in this late 12 1/2% of the time in the last 10 years of cycles that I have.

I am now looking for an ITD 9 low very soon OR maybe not! The run to this high is exactly 1,000 pips and it took 62 calendar days to complete. Nice numbers fibo wise but what do they mean? At present I am looking for an approximate .618 retrace of the last move up, a continuation into possibly the 1.0675 level for the ITD 10 and MTD 4 combination as shown.

Note the Quarters points chart how the Aussie like to stop at "hesitation zones". We hit one today.

Wild day traders! Crazy!

 

daily 2012-08-02_1808 - slick60's library

Quarters chart 2012-08-02_1809 - slick60's library

 

Watch those higher highs and lower lows. They can whip you out of a lot of your money very quickly.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Rather than attempting to predict where price is going today I want to share a snap I made for you to show how price reacts to the quarter points. You may see them as support and resistance or as I do as visual points of reference. I have mentioned early in this thread the Quarters Theory and I am quite sure everyone here is using it and has downloaded the book.

This assists me to see where is a possible entry or exit point on a trade. What is the action that price is showing at these points? Has heavy volume come in to blow it through one of these areas targeting the next quarter? Have we made a higher high or lower low on less volume while coming into one of these areas indicating a possible reverse? Have we completed the important "large quarter"? Are we at a hesitation zone before or after the large quarter? What is price action at these hesitation zones? Is it going sideways as is the case ending the day on Friday? This indicates to me that we still have one further wave to the upside that will put in a new high on the euro showing continuation of the trend.

I hope these snaps help you to gain some understanding of how price moves in the currency markets.

 

2012-08-05_0751 - slick60's library

2012-08-05_0800 - slick60's library

 

Good luck traders.

 

slick60

[jayson 10]

We’ll just have to wait and see but until we get a signal of market retracement, I’ll remain bullish on eur/usd pair

[slick60 10]

We’ll just have to wait and see but until we get a signal of market retracement, I’ll remain bullish on eur/usd pair

 

Hey Jayson

Why is it that you are bullish the EURUSD? A lot of negatives why it should still be tanking and a lot of traders thinking this way.

I have here a snap of a daily chart showing delta cycle points. If we can get the red MTD 4 confirmed in early behind us I would have to think that we are going higher also into the fall at least. The 1.2480 level looks like a possible pausing area if we can put in the new high shortly at the blue ITD 10. In an uptrend this point can come in late as was witnessed in the Aussie of late.

 

2012-08-09_1846 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Taking a look at the Aussie today there exists the possibility from price action that we may have seen the high for this current move. The Delta point chart below shows we may have come to the high a couple of days early in an uptrend at a blue ITD and red MTD high. It is the third ITD point in a row which means it should not be late. You can see when the blue 10 high is due on average along with the larger time frame MTD 4.

As I have posted in the past this appears to be a 4th wave correction of a pattern that dates back a number of years. It appears to be making this move in the form of a triangle coming just a few pips away from the down trend line shown. I look now for a three wave pattern to go south and will monitor price action as it retraces. We should see down action now until about the middle of September where the MTD 5 and ITD 2 reside on average.

 

2012-08-14_1938 - slick60's library

 

Good trading folks.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Continuing with the last post about an Aussie turn the break of the ITD 9 low pretty much confirms that the larger red MTD cycle high is in place. As mentioned above we should now experience a down move into the mid September. If this pattern does continue to forge out a 5 wave triangle it would not be unusual for the 5th wave which we have now embarked upon to truncate. I would look strongly at lows coming in around the 50% and .618 retrace levels to usher in a reversal to higher highs. See what type of price action comes in at these levels together with the volume. I suspect a sharp increase in volume at that reversal to the upside.

Note these levels on the daily chart below.

Near term trading I have posted below a 4 hour chart with highs and lows due on average for this week ahead. One caveat here is that around the 12 and 1 points it is possible for the market to invert point wise. Often times it is a bitch to know exactly which way the market wants to go. Be careful going full bore during this week. I anticipate a move up retracing since we have hit the parallel trend channel 1 bar early of the 12 average low.

What kind of a three wave pattern will form into that September low remains a mystery at this time. I shall monitor price action and post when I may be able to enlighten.

 

daily 2012-08-18_2116 - slick60's library

4 hour 2012-08-18_2116 - slick60's library

 

Trade with care my friends

 

slick60