EURUSD Et Al Trading

[slick60 10]

...am I on the right side? seeing retracement to 30573-30599 area then bounce to 1 target 31156 then second target 31600

 

Hi tamag

I am not certain what you are referring to here. Could you post a chart showing your levels that you mention here?

Thanks

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

The euro appears to me to be making a 5 wave structure up from the July 24 low. We have done 3 waves to the 1.3308 high and are correcting with a 4th wave at this time. Are we done? Not sure. It appears that with the Delta cycle points a red MTD low looms out there a few weeks from now. The exact ITD count shown is not for certain at this time as we are in an inversion time frame area. Exactly how we will get down there I am not sure and where we will go. Probably look for some fibonacci retrace from the 1.3308 high.

 

Daily points http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/a3082b50-635e-48aa-8480-d4caedafa86c/2013-01-09_1723.png

 

Watch carefully at this time. We may go to a new high before lower as the MTD 9 is not yet for certain either.

 

slick60

Edited January 9, 2013 by slick60

[slick60 10]

Spent a bit of time looking at this currency pair again this morning and thought I would share some thoughts and a couple charts. My main interest these days is in the futures market and don't get into here too often. It does help with the 6E for sure so time well spent creating a belief.

Using Delta cycle points we are due for a third ITD high at this time. The red MTD 9 high will accompany the ITD 2 which is due on average Jan 14 or 15. Since the MTD is arriving late it indicates to me that we are still moving higher within a larger cycle due near the end of March. Near term there is a lot of fibonacci confluence at the 1.3427 area that may be a stopping point for now.

Delta count http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/a65d0127-5c5d-4aa7-89c6-4e1e056f15c4/2013-01-12_0828.png

 

I have shown a 2nd chart with an Elliott wave count on it that I feel comfortable with. The first wave up from the massive volume reverse back on July 24, 2012 has a very nice fibonacci break down which to me somewhat validates the count.

I am following a monthly Elliott pattern that began in April 2008 at the 1.60's high and is in the 2nd leg of the correction from that point. To me the euro has the potential to move back to the 1.50's level and it appears at this time we are in the process of building an extended third wave. We shall monitor as it goes along.

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/a04a19fe-fdd7-4d74-b819-f4d3c5cf51c9/2013-01-12_0828.png

 

Take care traders and study the clues as they unfold from day to day.

 

slick60

 

P.S. Always remember that once the market makers have caused you to create a belief, that is when the market is often ready to go the opposite way!

Edited January 12, 2013 by slick60

[slick60 10]

Euro keeps messing about correcting what appears to be a third wave and has retraced to the .382 level of that wave. An ITD high is due which will be the third ITD high in a row and generally that point will come on time or early. Because of the holidays and the inversion time area that we are in this point can come a day late and thus leaves room for another high perhaps to that 1.3425 level I mentioned above. This is also the hesitation zone beneath the large quarter of 1.3500 and would be a reasonable level to pause. BUT it may go higher

You can see on the 4 hour chart that the 8 low point appears to be in with the developing hammer. To see how high this retrace goes now is the question. Watch for signs of reverse within this next 24 hour period for a correction of the move up from 1.2997.

 

4hr chart http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/f15aef03-7a69-4304-a335-21e80c1593e8/2013-01-15_1531.png

 

daily Delta chart http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/71c1c7ae-828a-498d-85fd-2706823dd1d0/2013-01-15_1531.png

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Looking at the euro today it has retraced .886 of the move down from the recent high. The .941 has been popular lately for retraces and it may go to there on the upside before down. I feel the ITD 2 high is in and we are working on the ITD 3 as seen on the daily chart. I feel it is far too early for a Medium Term Delta red point to have come in and we will correct lower before continuing higher. I also feel at this time the high will not be taken out at this time unless we have a rather late ITD 2 high which is possible as anything goes in these markets. I have to go with the probabilities and the Elliott wave pattern that I feel is in progress.

To me we are making a 2nd wave in the start to the middle of this wave structure north. In other words the middle third wave will follow this correction if I am correct. It should have a lot of poo in it as third waves are generally the strongest.

Watch for this move to still go down. BUT remember anything can happen.

 

4 hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/ff5da704-5ad4-447f-82d4-1638d88e5d0f/2013-01-17_1545.png

 

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/db87ffbb-a948-4fd2-aaec-02434431ecd8/2013-01-17_1546.png

 

Take care traders

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Looking at the euro today it has retraced .886 of the move down from the recent high. The .941 has been popular lately for retraces and it may go to there on the upside before down. I feel the ITD 2 high is in and we are working on the ITD 3 as seen on the daily chart. I feel it is far too early for a Medium Term Delta red point to have come in and we will correct lower before continuing higher. I also feel at this time the high will not be taken out at this time unless we have a rather late ITD 2 high which is possible as anything goes in these markets. I have to go with the probabilities and the Elliott wave pattern that I feel is in progress.

 

Updating the charts and adding a weekly here. Thought is we will still go lower to one of the retracement levels that are highlighted on the daily chart (perhaps the .382) to put in the ITD 3 low that was due on this day. The 4 hr chart shows we may still have room to move down into a lower 12 point. Weekly the trend is up but we still have yet to determine with certainty exactly what this pattern is in progress. Is it in fact impulsive or still corrective in larger terms?

 

4hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/bdbb7f4a-c49e-42b1-b79c-2131a4d354c8/2013-01-22_1709.png

 

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/56759848-cc70-4d59-b979-52b7d21403c6/2013-01-22_1716.png

 

weekly http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/fa623b58-c80f-46ba-9d6c-6e941633ca57/2013-01-22_1716.png

 

Good trading to you folks.

 

slick60

[M.A 10]

At last, eur/usd is out of prison in which it remained for around 2 weeks. This rally took it to 11 month high position. This rally was mainly due to fundamental factors. Some good news from euro zone were the main cause of this strength of eur/usd.

 

A big news, yesterday, was the loan repayment amount by european banks. This repayment amount is much bigger than what was expected in past forecast. In the past it was expected to be around 84bn which will now be more than 137bn. It shows that financial health of sector is stronger and better than expected.

 

Recent economic data of Germany shows that eurozone's biggest economy has started to play its role in leading whole region to recover from crisis. Strong growth in IFO has already exceeded expectations and it will, most probably, continue to do so in future.

 

In my opinion, both of the above news r strong enough to take eur/usd near 1.35 or maybe above this point.

[tamag 10]

At last, eur/usd is out of prison in which it remained for around 2 weeks. This rally took it to 11 month high position. This rally was mainly due to fundamental factors. Some good news from euro zone were the main cause of this strength of eur/usd.

 

A big news, yesterday, was the loan repayment amount by european banks. This repayment amount is much bigger than what was expected in past forecast. In the past it was expected to be around 84bn which will now be more than 137bn. It shows that financial health of sector is stronger and better than expected.

 

Recent economic data of Germany shows that eurozone's biggest economy has started to play its role in leading whole region to recover from crisis. Strong growth in IFO has already exceeded expectations and it will, most probably, continue to do so in future.

 

In my opinion, both of the above news r strong enough to take eur/usd near 1.35 or maybe above this point.

 

...and then perhaps 1.42783 ???

[slick60 10]

Now that M.A. (above) has pointed out the "good news" in the euro community that has caused this move north we should be away to the races. That is perception, and now we may be ready to make a more substantial correction to this five wave retrace. I see completion of a wave pattern that may be done or very soon. Of course as we all know any wave can get extend so be wary. The 1.3490 level appears inviting for a pause at this time. A large quarter resides at 1.3500 and it is also the major midpoint between 1.3000 and 1.4000. We are inside the overshoot area within 25 pips of the L.Q. thus it has been satisfied at this time and may be ripe for correction.

Two charts today show a parallel channel which is now in play at the high. Do you think we will push up through it with the "good news"? Be careful!

There is a lot of information on the daily chart. Study it to get a handle on where we "MAY" be in this market.

4 hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/585b74dd-b1dc-4be2-9f60-949088dc5b55/2013-01-26_0911.png

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/2117cd89-b9da-4e39-9205-b7525feae5be/2013-01-26_0903.png

 

Good trading folks

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

The last post I made I mentioned a possibility that the wave structure that we are presently building may be done. That possibility is now greatly enhanced. We are on the verge of a retrace / correction about to take place in the very near future. On the 4 hour chart from the Jan 4 low I can now count 13 waves which creates an extended wave. We will know what degree of wave this is (another 1st wave or perhaps now a 3rd wave). The depth of correction will be our first clue. This wave the way I see it has a 5th wave extended wave. From Jan 4 it counts 1-2-3-4; 1-2-3-4; 1-2-3-4-5 to the high today. 13 waves. Elliott tells me this move will be retraced twice, 3 waves down and a retrace higher than the high today. The up move will become an irregular correction if we are to go waaaaaaaaaay down OR will become the start of the next impulse structure north. I will monitor the retrace closely.

Short term it appears we have a 4 hr high in place #4. It has occurred at this time or earlier 73% of the time in 37 cycles that I have charted.

On the daily chart you can see that we are due today the 31st for an ITD 4 high. Is it now in? Time will tell. This is a strong move north but will not go in a straight line. We need to take a breather.

4hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/768139b2-98d6-4339-98c3-2abc60e2b5c8/2013-01-30_1905.png

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/c81a9d47-966b-429c-bbdc-66b4a18b303b/2013-01-30_1907.png

 

Take care folks and many happy trades to ya'll

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Ups and downs and twirls, what a crazy currency. Here is a url that may help

Como se dança o merengue...

 

Enjoy compadres

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

There is not much doubt this baby is a runaway wall of worry bull market. It is moving quicker than I can post right now. I will show a 4 hr chart that appears to have a potential confluence area at the 1.3725 level that may cause a rest. This is obviously an extended wave and is the third wave overall. I will show a monthly chart later with an Elliott count that I am following at present.

We have the potential as I have said for some time now to get up into the 1.40's and perhaps 1.50 area before this is done.

Note there is non farm payroll this morning at 8:30am - a market mover most times. It is Friday and who wants to be long over the weekend. Inventory has been gathering on the long side all week and a correction of imbalance is due. That means the market makers should be taking profits. NFP may be a great opportunity today with good news for the euro to shoot this sucker south for profit taking.

4 hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/0d5daefb-9b06-45e9-8cc4-6db653197d0c/2013-02-01_0445.png

 

Note the negative divergence with higher prices and the macd at the bottom

 

be careful traders and good trading to you.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Applying the same delta solution to the DX is shown below. It is the opposite side basically of the euro and moves the opposite way unless manipulated. Note the confluence area of retrace at the ITD and MTD points coming due. Blue ITD 4 and red MTD 8.

We are very very close to a turn and I will say again news at 8:30am EST and Friday profit taking will probably take place.

We have a trend day at present in the euro - I am sure that will change.

 

DX daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/00aa534c-824d-45d3-8533-84a29b7a1e88/2013-02-01_0514.png

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I wanted to show a "possible" EW count on a monthly chart that I am monitoring at present. It really is 'crystal ball' sugar plums in your dreams stuff. No one really knows into the future where price is going except the LARGE market makers-the banks, funds, etc who are in collusion with the governments of the world. They can change the direction of any pattern at any time and do so as we are all aware.

When one starts looking at EW patterns on a monthly time frame they can morph into several alternate counts as this one shown is able to do. I monitor fibonacci retrace/extension/alternate price projections for confluence areas and see what price does at those levels. Do the market makers show their foot prints at these levels? I weigh the possibilities and try to assess the probabilities for a trade.

I do not have the money that a long term market maker has in his wheel barrow or vault or printing press. So why do I even look at the monthly charts? To try and gather a larger sense of direction. I, like probably most of you reading this thread, look for shorter term action/trades on an intraday or swing time frame trying not to expose our risk to the sharks and pigs who manipulate prices in the financial markets. That is one of the reasons why I focus a lot on the futures market-bang for your buck right now on 5 pips for less margin.

Here are a few charts

4 hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/4322484e-c362-4504-a9e5-6a6742b3ae87/2013-02-02_0913.png

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/362a0bb8-1c8c-4d75-8a77-115ac2d25592/2013-02-02_0913.png

weekly http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/465e4dcb-b083-4b0b-9d12-bb220b9c9393/2013-02-02_0912.png

monthly http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/542a9ce4-36c5-4a7f-ab0a-492ace3b6fdd/2013-02-02_0910.png

 

And that takes up my Saturday morning time

 

slick60

P.S. I am thinking about doing a futures trading room that crosses over into forex also. If you have any interest please P.M. me. I would enjoy the company.

[slick60 10]

It appears to me we have run out of steam for a short while with the euro. The depth of this correction/retrace should help to define where we may be headed. Short term on the 4 hr chart I am looking for a 50% retrace of the move down from the high. A resistance zone appears to reside there. It does not have to stop there but monitor price with volume at that level.

Daily you can see we have put in the ITD 4 high when it was due on average suggesting a retrace. The ITD 5 low is due on Monday Feb 11. It may come early or late since we are between red MTD points 8 & 9 as shown. This last wave appears to me to have had a 5th wave extension and may allow for a correction down to the 1.3400 support level and if broken further down to the 1.3250 area.

 

4 hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/f8b6dbca-677b-490f-9ddb-a3cd9be10e73/2013-02-05_0551.png

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/983c0bbb-526d-4800-8c16-6f7044ca9958/2013-02-05_0554.png

 

Grab some pips guys and gals.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Thought I would update the last DX chart that I posted with regard to the delta points. The chart is self explanatory.

Remember that this is the 2nd pair of the EUR USD basically.

 

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/e2b419b0-3071-4def-a3b4-bddf921af400/2013-02-05_0656.png

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Holy Smoke, Great balls of fire today. I was watching crude oil while this baby fell 207 pips. I was not surprised - just pissed that I missed it.

The daily chart is going to show that we are moving quickly down to a confluence level in the euro at 1.3359 and a further level is at 1.3314. The latter is the balance mode from Jan 13-25 and I feel has a good chance of being re-visited. The way I am counting waves at present says we need one more down to fulfill 5 waves in this retrace. The market makers never let it finish it seems like at the high.Tomorrow may be a good day to turn this market with astrological signs. Be sharp and ready with signals. We are finally getting a deep 2nd wave type of correction that we will watch to see how this story unfolds. Generally when a point is due and there is violent price action that point will come in early.

The 4 hr chart shows the same washout in price and the next point, the 9 may be in at this time. I am looking for a shallow retrace and then culmination to this move.

 

4hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/9963a4cd-19ee-4a73-b872-1c0ff459a702/2013-02-07_1535.png

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/4b4dfaa7-3650-4aeb-a8ce-22651ea7aed5/2013-02-07_1536.png

 

Watch your butts traders and catch the next move!

 

slick60

[Vinayak 10]

The Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.75% and QE unchanged at 375 billion pounds at 12:00PM GMT. Just as I was thinking that it was going to be another uneventful day for us forex traders, things got interesting during ECB President Mario Draghi's opening remarks at the ECB Press Conference.

 

I quickly started puts on the EUR/USD and also puts on the Euro itself. And sooner rather than later, EUR/USD was falling due to Draghi's dovish attitude and remarks.

 

Draghi talked about how a strong Euro would slow down the economic recovery that is ongoing in the EU. It seems like the Euro will continue to be weak for the early part of 2013.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.75% and QE unchanged at 375 billion pounds at 12:00PM GMT. Just as I was thinking that it was going to be another uneventful day for us forex traders, things got interesting during ECB President Mario Draghi's opening remarks at the ECB Press Conference.

 

I quickly started puts on the EUR/USD and also puts on the Euro itself. And sooner rather than later, EUR/USD was falling due to Draghi's dovish attitude and remarks.

 

You were listening to this at 5 o'clock in the morning? That's dedication.

[Vinayak 10]

Lol.. :haha: I am usually up by that time as I need to plan out my trading day and make the most use out of it.

 

Besides, I had a hunch that Draghi would have an affect as he did last time; only last time it was positive for the Euro and the EUR/USD.

[slick60 10]

From my last post I want to show a few charts. The 4 hr as it came down in one more wave and appears to have ended for the time being at the 1.3359 level that I pointed out. On the daily chart a low ITD 5 point was due on average with this drop. Now we are retracing into the ITD 6 as a high point.

I want to update the daily DX chart also here for you to compare what the opposite half of EUR USD is doing. Generally when one goes up the other goes down. The DX at present looks a little ominous to me to continue higher into a red MTD 9 high however it can also tank just as quickly. Remember that the market makers will give you the opposite perception of where the market is really going to go. If not everyone would be wealthy. We need to ride with these forces-not against.

 

4hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/ae0996fb-e3e5-4221-86bb-37ec9baabb3c/2013-02-13_1719.png

daily eurusd http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/c713745b-ae7c-4bb3-b75f-fd5afc2ec116/2013-02-13_1720.png

daily DX http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/84578ea5-46de-466d-bfaa-ce17c1183f2f/2013-02-13_1721.png

Note how nicely the DX moves with my euro delta solution.

Good trading to you all.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

This is a quick post showing a market profile split. 15 minute bars. Note the skinny volume out of a range today into the highs. This is a 6E futures chart and the volumes I get are on Ninja Trader. Note the lack of volume quickly shoving price north and then culminating on the high period with much more volume for the final push. See where price closes in relation to the high, open and high volume. This is a shot across the bow following the skinny non participating push north. The 2 min bar at 7:48 am had 14,394 contracts traded.

By splitting your profile you can see this take place. Get to know what you are looking for.

 

MP chart http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/dcfa558b-c51b-468a-83a8-f87da3a55692/2013-02-13_1740.png

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Two charts below, daily and 4 hr.

Note the possibilities for a deeper correction to take place on the daily chart.

We hit our two levels I mentioned earlier. The 1.3314 appears to me to be an irregular correction or a 'b' wave flat in the making as the second leg of the move down from the highs. At present I am looking at the ITD 6 high coming due very soon and perhaps a retrace as shown on the 4 hr chart to the .618 retrace level around 1.3575 hesitation zone. From there we may go deeper seeking out the larger red MTD cycle low due on average in March.

 

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/007e1f92-3971-4a0b-bbb6-226657ff3aeb/2013-02-14_1532.png

4hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/8057c49b-cfb3-48e0-9815-131ef46e3dc9/2013-02-14_1532.png

 

You gotta be making some pips from this shit traders.

Good luck.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

A quick post to update the DX chart which may give a clue as to where is the euro going. It goes the opposite way. Sometimes it is easier to see the euro by looking through the eyes of the DX.

 

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/7ef8e796-ebe5-4336-963d-a6d9e8ff794c/2013-02-22_0517.png

The black text on this chart is the price of Crude Oil at noted locations. Getting screwed by the manipulating government/oil companies/ and market makers. This is the game. Fill my wheel barrow with your cash.

 

weekly chart http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/e8fd6966-a76e-4f5e-a662-0fc7b3ffbdfa/2013-02-22_0522.png

 

Remember if the DX goes up the euro will probably go down. On the weekly chart note we are showing larger time cycles which become more meaningful to longer direction.

 

Take care traders.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Using a Delta solution for direction at present tells me that this market is still going lower. Also the way the DX is set up it appears that it is going higher (posted above).

The daily chart shows me that we should be coming into a low during the 1st week of March. It would not surprise me to see this low come in late around the end of the week where the MTD low is due. In a down market these points tend to come late-keep that in mind. I also feel that will be an interim low to this correction and a more meaningful low will come in about mid April. Let's see where it bottoms and what sets up at those times.

 

daily chart http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/f86c6224-24b6-445f-a3f3-2df746427bc2/2013-02-23_0803.png

 

slick60