EURUSD Et Al Trading

[slick60 10]

The Euro and the Aussie that I mainly follow these days are both paired up with the dollar. I do not follow the DX as much as I should so putting in some Sunday morning time on it today. Couple charts below give a longer term perspective of the DX with regard to Delta points as I follow them. The dollar was KING back in the 80's for you people who were alive at that time and has been falling from grace ever since. There are several Elliott wave patterns that come into play but will not go into them here. Too many traders consider EW to be hokey-pokey. (Not so!)

We are working to some larger time frames into the end of Dec this year and possible into the March 2013 period. I prefer the earlier. A couple targets shown on the monthly chart for retrace and projection levels. I have found that the DX is quite exacting when it comes to fibonacci retrace levels. Take note on the weekly chart.

I am researching the DX for correlation with the pairs mentioned at present.

 

weekly 2012-08-19_1052 - slick60's library

monthly 2012-08-19_1053 - slick60's library

 

Pay attention to this index. If it goes north in all liklihood the aussie and euro will go south.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

A 15 minute chart below with a possible EW pattern on it coming to fruition is shown. For Mystic's unknown analyst this may be a fitting picture. B U T do not expect what this guy was saying at this time. Upon completion of this pattern I see a retrace in the works of this move down before continuation to the downside.

A 15 minute market profile chart of the 6A is also shown with a couple thoughts on it with regard to expected price movement. I do not keep a forex profile chart.

Also shown in this post is an alternative EW pattern in the works on the weekly chart. This would correlate with the price movement in the DX that I foresee in the above post. A triangle is a rare pattern in Elliott and is often disguised in the form of a double three. This fits that bill to a tee at present. Crystal balls can become clouded though if you shake them so be careful and let price action be your guide. Look to take advantage of news announcements that create opportunity for the market makers and go with them. Generally this entails a contrariam opinion to the perceived news release.

 

15 min 2012-08-19_1215 - slick60's library

profile 2012-08-19_1219 - slick60's library

weekly 2012-08-19_1219 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

A quick post with a 4 hr chart of the eurusd. It appears to me at present that we are in a corrective move and looking for the 1.2128 level as a target at present at fib confluence. There appears a nice EW pattern on this chart that I think is in play.

 

4 hr 2012-08-20_0613 - slick60's library

 

As mentioned above we are in an inversion time frame on this chart but it appears we are southbound into Wednesday at least.

Take care

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Euro retraced alright but a lot further than this cowboy was looking for it to go. Having taken out the highs brings another scenario into play. The EW pattern I was looking at was that of a triangle and I felt we would move south. The move down into 9:00am yesterday was the completion of a triangle which went north creating what I feel is going to be a flat correction. That meaning that we will come down now into what will be an ITD 11 low shown on the daily chart by Friday when it is due.

The 4 hour chart indicates to me that our 1 high came in today at the high and now we look for a move south. The direction is highly probable but how it gets there is always a guess at best it seems until well into the EW pattern.

I fought city hall today looking for shorts where the price action clearly said we are going higher. Dumb ass old habits are hard to shed. Let price tell you the direction intraday and try not to enter the day with a directional bias. I too will try to heed this instruction.

 

4hr 2012-08-21_1527 - slick60's library

daily 2012-08-21_1528 - slick60's library

 

Good trading everyone - make some pips!

 

slick60

P.S. Quick note here - look for a possible opportunity to go short after the 2:00am Frankfurt open tomorrow. It may come as a failed test of today's high.

[slick60 10]

For me it is hard to focus on more than one currency pair at a time in regular trading hours. The Aussie set up beautifully this morning when the euro was reaming my behind. We appear to be in our down move continuation looking for a low on the 4 hour chart by early Thursday morning. On a daily basis we have an ITD low due on Monday next week. How it gets there will no doubt be interesting. Let price be your guide. A market profile does certainly help to see what is going on intraday. Lst night's news at 9:30pm once again created the opportunity that I suspected. Of course it took place while I was in bed. Damn this sleep thing - it really gets in the road.

 

4 hr 2012-08-21_1557 - slick60's library

 

slick60

 

I live in Canada eastern time zone. I would like to find a few select people who would like to trade together while working with the same thing. Many eagle eyes and a few opinions would be great. This would be done with a Skype group. My main interest would be trading the futures currencies. PM or Skype me if you are interested.

[slick60 10]

As I mentioned earlier we are at the time frame when the delta points may invert. It appears that may be the case this time around BUT we still will not know for sure until the possible 2 high and 3 low come in. The possibility is that we had a 2 low and are moving up the the 3. Drives me crazy at times and wonder why I do it. Direction is nice to know and this is the only way that one may be able to see a bit into the future. Once the points are known it is a good way to forecast direction for an intraday move.

At present I am sitting with a short entry order for 1.2596. We shall see how it goes into 7pm or so. This move may be done for now. Famous last words.

 

4 hr chart

 

2012-08-23_1445 - slick60's library

I still feel we are going higher into the first part of September.

 

slick60

[MightyMouse 12]

I am scared now that you want to be short.

[slick60 10]

I am scared now that you want to be short.

 

Hi MM

We have gone through a change of HH and HL's as far as I can see from where you were short forever.

Would you like to share some incite into when you change direction?

I don't know if you are short or long at this time.

Maybe if you could hone in on the time to reverse a little bit. What you say is very broad and involves hundreds of pips. I don't think the majority of the traders on this forum are looking for such huge moves before they reverse. I may be wrong but I know I sure do not want to give away several hundred pips waiting for a reversal in direction.

Thanks a lot.

 

slick60

[MightyMouse 12]

Hi MM

We have gone through a change of HH and HL's as far as I can see from where you were short forever.

Would you like to share some incite into when you change direction?

I don't know if you are short or long at this time.

Maybe if you could hone in on the time to reverse a little bit. What you say is very broad and involves hundreds of pips. I don't think the majority of the traders on this forum are looking for such huge moves before they reverse. I may be wrong but I know I sure do not want to give away several hundred pips waiting for a reversal in direction.

Thanks a lot.

 

slick60

 

Still short. I am viewing the recent events as a normal release of demand after a decent move down. I will want to add when we go below 1.18ish, likely the second time through if there is a second time; otherwise, I will add further below 1.18.

 

If we get stuck here and we continue to balance for an extended period, I might exit my short and enter again if we break out below the low of the year. Exiting voluntarily isn't something I would do until about the end of September. I could, of course, get stopped out and I will do the I coulda woulda shoulda bullshit.

 

If I were to reverse i would want to see that it has balanced and shown signs of reversal and not just a few up days. A break out up out of balance after a down move like this is very, very deceptive. So, I would want to see it successfully fail to go back into the balance area. I care less if I miss part of the move.

[slick60 10]

Still short. I am viewing the recent events as a normal release of demand after a decent move down. I will want to add when we go below 1.18ish, likely the second time through if there is a second time; otherwise, I will add further below 1.18.

 

If we get stuck here and we continue to balance for an extended period, I might exit my short and enter again if we break out below the low of the year. Exiting voluntarily isn't something I would do until about the end of September. I could, of course, get stopped out and I will do the I coulda woulda shoulda bullshit.

 

If I were to reverse i would want to see that it has balanced and shown signs of reversal and not just a few up days. A break out up out of balance after a down move like this is very, very deceptive. So, I would want to see it successfully fail to go back into the balance area. I care less if I miss part of the move.

 

Mouse

You have really said nothing. Are you running for office? If not maybe you should consider that. This is what a politician might say. I ask for specifics and you give me this. Really!

When did you get short? What was your entry level? How many thousand pips will it take for you to change direction? and and and and and

C'mon man say it like it is. Spill your guts. Enlighten us please. Some people think you have words of wisdom. Share them.

I hope this post does not piss you off. If you have some knowledge I am trying to draw it out of you for the traders to assist them.

 

slick60

[MightyMouse 12]

Mouse

You have really said nothing. Are you running for office? If not maybe you should consider that. This is what a politician might say. I ask for specifics and you give me this. Really!

When did you get short? What was your entry level? How many thousand pips will it take for you to change direction? and and and and and

C'mon man say it like it is. Spill your guts. Enlighten us please. Some people think you have words of wisdom. Share them.

I hope this post does not piss you off. If you have some knowledge I am trying to draw it out of you for the traders to assist them.

 

slick60

 

I have told you I am still short like you asked. I am short from above 1.30 and I added when it broke through 1.26 and I plan to add again when it breaks through 1.18 and so on. It took me 3 tries to get short. I have referenced these entries and planned entries on other threads. I started shorting in early march. I also mentioned that on other threads.

 

I shorted the Euro because it looked like the perfect storm. Shit fundamentals and the chart looked like it was in a going to break out of that range that was largely bound by 1.3. I mentioned that on other threads too. It still looks like shit fundamentals and we are in a down trend. In such a situation I want to be short. It's all pretty simple and most people can do it. You are seeing me ride the winning part of the trade. I took 2 small losers to get positioned, which have passed.

 

I have about a 7:1 gain right now on the entire trade concept, I have been continuously short since march and as I noted in the other post I am staying short and will do exactly what I outlined. My stop is mid 1.27

 

No magic. Nothing to hide. Very simple trading and trade management combined with confidence, discipline, and patience. If I get stopped out, then you can add stupidity to the list too.

[slick60 10]

A fairly strong day so far today in the euro suggests that perhaps we have seen a reversal low to allow us to move a bit higher. As we creep north towards Mighty Mouse"s 700 pip stop I am looking at the 1.2675 area as being a strong reactive resistance level. This is a level where supply overcame demand in the past in my view and will cause at least a pausing in the market. It is also the hesitation zone prior to the large quarter at 1.2750.

Daily charts are previously posted.

 

Good luck traders.

 

slick60

[Obsidian 10]

A fairly strong day so far today in the euro suggests that perhaps we have seen a reversal low to allow us to move a bit higher. As we creep north towards Mighty Mouse"s 700 pip stop I am looking at the 1.2675 area as being a strong reactive resistance level. This is a level where supply overcame demand in the past in my view and will cause at least a pausing in the market. It is also the hesitation zone prior to the large quarter at 1.2750.

Daily charts are previously posted.

 

Good luck traders.

 

slick60

 

it seems that my levels are close to yours...I see 1.2695-1.2713 zone, then 1.2764...above that there is 1.2845 before 1.3000. My chart says daily is bullish atm. this friday will be really interesting, end of the week, month, ben's speech etc.

[AsepX2 10]

i think it will go up until it hits BB 72 deviation 2 then it might bounce back. I only sell so gonna wait until tomorrow most likely

[slick60 10]

i think it will go up until it hits BB 72 deviation 2 then it might bounce back. I only sell so gonna wait until tomorrow most likely

 

Hi Asep

 

Can you post a chart of what you are looking at?

Thanks

 

slick

[slick60 10]

A quick post regarding the Aussie. On the 4 hour chart we are due on average for a low to come in on the 1am bar tonight. That would be bang on with a minor economic report coming out at 9:30pm this evening that the market makers may utilize as an opportunity to spike the currency and reverse. Note that I have the 5 low as possibly in.

I feel this may be very possible in as much as the ITD blue 11 low point was due yesterday. However in a downtrend I fully expect the low to come a little later than usual since we are still trending down into an MTD low point due in the middle of September. Tonight would make it 2 days late.

I will monitor price action at 9:30pm if I am still up at that time to try and catch a long down perhaps in the area of 1.0325 quarter point. This would be a trade to hold for a few days as we retrace upward.

 

4 hr chart 2012-08-28_1628 - slick60's library

daily chart 2012-08-28_1628 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

A quick post regarding the Aussie. On the 4 hour chart we are due on average for a low to come in on the 1am bar tonight. That would be bang on with a minor economic report coming out at 9:30pm this evening that the market makers may utilize as an opportunity to spike the currency and reverse. Note that I have the 5 low as possibly in.

I feel this may be very possible in as much as the ITD blue 11 low point was due yesterday. However in a downtrend I fully expect the low to come a little later than usual since we are still trending down into an MTD low point due in the middle of September. Tonight would make it 2 days late.

I will monitor price action at 9:30pm if I am still up at that time to try and catch a long down perhaps in the area of 1.0325 quarter point. This would be a trade to hold for a few days as we retrace upward.

 

4 hr chart 2012-08-28_1628 - slick60's library

daily chart 2012-08-28_1628 - slick60's library

 

slick60

 

 

We did have weakness into the 9:30pm bar but not as much as expected. Made a low at that time and have started a sharp move north this morning around 8:00am. With a 4 hr point coming early, weakness into a low point is expected which did occur. The construction eco news was at the Feb 28/12 high and the May low. I guess we will have to see what the effect is on the GDP out next week. At present a retrace trade into a higher daily ITD blue point is in order BUT watch for a quick reversal in a down trending market.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

As you are aware I have been looking for a low to come in the aussie in order to get short with a reasonable retrace. The market movers just never let this happen and it is really hard to determine if you have had the turn or not. Looking at the daily chart below the ITD blue 11 low point has finally come in late and the 1 day retrace was it for the ITD 1 high. No retrace for me to jump on so I sit on the sidelines once again as we make new lows. I see us taking out the .9580 June 1st low before we make any run at new highs. We are at an inversion time where the delta points may invert - more uncertainty. The blue 2 low is due on average Sept 17. In a down trend this can be late as we head for the red MTD 5 low due around Sept 20. I am looking at .9176 to .9555 into latish October for this low to be in. You can see levels on the weekly chart below.

Shorter term we have the 4 hour chart with an 8 low due around 5pm this evening. How the Labor day holiday is going to affect this point is a guess at best. [Note the 4 hr points have been inverted since my last chart]

 

4hour http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/f074ecac-f386-424b-97f8-930d39abb428/2012-09-03_0932.png

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/d76058c9-4807-44fa-95d5-3011b04df06f/2012-09-03_0934.png

weekly http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/deacc206-2c8c-4cbb-b727-655d4e15ce31/2012-09-03_0934.png

 

Good hunting traders.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

From my last post on the 4 hour chart it appears that our 8 low came in with the 9pm bar last night. The next high is due on the 1am bar tomorrow. There is news at 9:30 this evening that the market makers will use as an opportunity to churn the market to their liking. The GDP quarterly. The 9:45pm 15 minute bar has shown a propensity of late to create a reverse also. If the MM gives you the opportunity this evening "go with him" as the next low is not due until 1 am the following day.

Remember at this time the low also has opportunity written all over it at 9:30pm with employment news due at that time.

The overall trend is down in this currency for some time yet but beware of breathing areas of retrace. Daily delta points are still working in the inversion time area and a revision to my posted ITD's would not be a big surprise to me.

Be careful folks - but take advantage of the MM opportunities.

 

4 hr chart http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/9bba2ed3-81f4-410c-88e5-75c73b89df33/2012-09-04_0501.png

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I feel I would be remiss not to post an alternative view of the aussie as I am looking at it. In the weekly charts I am looking for a pattern down that would utilize a 3 wave structure top to bottom. In the daily shown here along with another 4 hr chart alternate ITD points are shown and a 5 wave move to the overnight low.

It is quite possible at this time to see a move back to the 1.0400 area before continuation south. There is resistance at that level and it is also the area of the 2nd wave retrace as shown on the 4 hr chart cyan waves.

Let price show you where it wants to go and catch the move with these posts as a possible guide to direction.

4 hr http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/89202650-acfd-4a19-90ba-cb16ea31ae13/2012-09-04_0551.png

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/3b368687-9e44-4f95-9515-25dd6d874129/2012-09-04_0551.png

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Gonna be some hot times in the ole town today and into next week I feel. The EUR rate setting is at 7:45am followed at 8:30am with the Draghi press conference. That is always good for some really quick moves. ADP also this morning and jobless claims. Tomorrow is the NFP. Hold onto your hats and try to catch a ride with the shifty market makers as they reverse direction.

I am still seeing higher in the euro at present into next Friday the 14th area. The daily chart shows a potential Delta count that I am looking at and you can see where points are due on average.

 

daily http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/0d725deb-ea33-4295-998e-feaa0ba5d6ec/2012-09-06_0506.png

 

Happy hunting amigos

 

slick60

[MightyMouse 12]

I need a little more love than I am getting.

[slick60 10]

I have been continuously short since march and as I noted in the other post I am staying short and will do exactly what I outlined. My stop is mid 1.27

 

No magic. Nothing to hide. Very simple trading and trade management combined with confidence, discipline, and patience. If I get stopped out, then you can add stupidity to the list too.

 

 

Hi Mouse

It looks like the list may be growing - lol

 

slick

[slick60 10]

There is one way to find a reversal high or low I find and that is for me to try and crystal ball the outcome of the game before the first pitch is thrown. Eating crow is a bit of a specialty on my menu at times.

So with the FOMC meeting and setting coming up on Thursday this week it fits very nicely with a potential spike high reversal I feel. I will show a profile chart with all sessions merged since the 11:30am close of the European session on Friday past. We are building a big balance area that generally ends with an end of auction spike. In this case I think high. No matter what the result will be for the long awaited and baited QE3 to be or not to be news shall create the opportunity for the market makers to facilitate an opposite of perception move to trap everyone on the wrong side. This fits well with the Delta cycles that I follow and show quite often. We are coming into a cluster of highs that are due on average at this time.

On the daily chart a magenta vertical line is drawn for Sept 13 news day. Horizontally see where the hesitation zone above the Large Quarter of 1.2750 is along with the yellow midpoint of the 2 LQ's. See how they come into play with the upper parallel channel that I have drawn. Scan left to the previous ITD blue 2 high and note the supply bar that came in on May 22 from that same hesitation zone.

So I see a move to the 1.2825 to 1.2890 possible high area for a very tradeable short in that area.

Watch price and volume. Do not be fooled by the market makers. UBS is yammering about an inevitable QE3 to come in. Everyone will see nothing but up on the euro should this occur. Be wary traders.

 

profile http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/04f0936b-3ba3-4180-b325-dc27675772d7/2012-09-11_0635.png

daily 2012-09-11_0745 - slick60's library

 

Good luck folks

 

slick60

[MightyMouse 12]

I have been continuously short since march and as I noted in the other post I am staying short and will do exactly what I outlined. My stop is mid 1.27

 

No magic. Nothing to hide. Very simple trading and trade management combined with confidence, discipline, and patience. If I get stopped out, then you can add stupidity to the list too.

 

 

Hi Mouse

It looks like the list may be growing - lol

 

slick

 

I was stopped out on Friday.