EURUSD Et Al Trading

[Mysticforex 13]

@Slick60...

 

On EUR/AUD I am just using trendlines... weekly and daily. A close above the daily,

and the weekly become the target.

[slick60 10]

@Slick60...

 

On EUR/AUD I am just using trendlines... weekly and daily. A close above the daily,

and the weekly become the target.

 

Mystic could you post a couple charts with your trend lines on them so we can see what you are referring to? Thanks a lot.

 

slick

 

Did you mean EUR/AUD?

Edited May 8, 2012 by slick60

[Mysticforex 13]

A close above the lower TL (daily ) would hve me looking for a target in the area between the 2 upper TLs.

[slick60 10]

A close above the lower TL (daily ) would hve me looking for a target in the area between the 2 upper TLs.

 

Mystic I see your t-lines now but what has this got to do with the EURUSD? I do not follow this pair at all. I was giving numbers for the eurusd. Perhaps I misunderstood your question in the post above.

 

slick60

[Mysticforex 13]

Mystic I see your t-lines now but what has this got to do with the EURUSD? I do not follow this pair at all. I was giving numbers for the eurusd. Perhaps I misunderstood your question in the post above.

 

slick60

 

 

:crap: I had a major brain fart.... When I received the email that someone posted to a thread I was following, I read eur/aud, not eur/usd. My apologies.

[macplauz 10]

Understanding price movement (Trade Setups)

 

On the 5min Chart today we saw a breakout of a descending diagonal.

1.30 is a strong support zone (round number + 100 % fib extension from previous swings-see 5 min chart- and 61.80 % fib retracement on the 1h chart) + Doji candle just before the upmove started

[macplauz 10]

Again ending descending diagonal on the 5min chart (C-Wave) Yesterday (UTC/GMT +1 hour) at the beginning of the US session. The diagonal ended at the 61.80 % fib extension of wave A at 1.2983 (5 min chart) and the internal waves down of wave C lost strength and got shorter.

 

On the hourly Chart we also had a support zone there due to the prior flat consolidation The initial upmove found resistance at the 200 MA on the 5 min chart.

[slick60 10]

We have not talked about the aussie for awhile since it had a fairly long way to run. We are now either at or extremely close to the reaction/turning low in the currency pair at the major quarter parity 1.0000 level.

You can see from the two charts where the delta points are due on average and the turn is nigh. Question marks have been placed as we are not certain at this point. The turn here should give us a nice retrace north. Watch for the low today to be possibly tested with the employment data from Australia at 9:30pm e.s.t.

 

4 hr 2012-05-09_1456 - slick60's library

daily 2012-05-09_1454 - slick60's library

 

The longer term daily points are looking quite appetizing at this point.

 

Good trading folks

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

We have not talked about the aussie for awhile since it had a fairly long way to run. We are now either at or extremely close to the reaction/turning low in the currency pair at the major quarter parity 1.0000 level.

You can see from the two charts where the delta points are due on average and the turn is nigh. Question marks have been placed as we are not certain at this point. The turn here should give us a nice retrace north. Watch for the low today to be possibly tested with the employment data from Australia at 9:30pm e.s.t.

 

4 hr 2012-05-09_1456 - slick60's library

daily 2012-05-09_1454 - slick60's library

 

The longer term daily points are looking quite appetizing at this point.

 

Good trading folks

 

slick60

 

 

Sorry about the 4hr chart - erased it.

Here it is below

2012-05-09_1609 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[macplauz 10]

Today in the US session, market bounced (short term) from the 1.2920 level due to the 61.80 % fib retracement + 100 % fib extension and prior consolidation at the same level. Furthermore, the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing up didn't break substantially because there was no lower close below the range of the red breakout candle form the following candles (no confirmation).

[slick60 10]

I had an inquiry about how I split my profile charts and made an example and thought I would post it here. Maybe this will help some traders hopefully.

 

2012-05-13_1946 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I have not been very active lately while following the euro. At present it appears to me that we made a low reverse at least for retrace on June 1. End of month for the bonus boys. At present I feel we are retracing to the 1.2824 area which was a 2nd wave of 5 coming down into the low. I have a 4 hr snap of where we are with my short term delta points and a low is due this evening into early morning. From there I believe we should see the 2nd leg of this move to somewhere in the 1.2800 area. Will monitor to see what the price action is at that time.

The low I feel we may see this evening is shown with two areas of confluence on my chart.

 

2012-06-12_1442 - slick60's library

 

Good luck traders

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I have not been very active lately while following the euro. At present it appears to me that we made a low reverse at least for retrace on June 1. End of month for the bonus boys. At present I feel we are retracing to the 1.2824 area which was a 2nd wave of 5 coming down into the low. I have a 4 hr snap of where we are with my short term delta points and a low is due this evening into early morning. From there I believe we should see the 2nd leg of this move to somewhere in the 1.2800 area. Will monitor to see what the price action is at that time.

The low I feel we may see this evening is shown with two areas of confluence on my chart.

 

2012-06-12_1442 - slick60's library

 

Good luck traders

 

slick60

 

Geez, roll over week in the futures got me again looking for a lower low. The futures did mark a 2nd low by 7 pips at the 10:30 time yesterday which I will now address as being the #12 low. Forex missed it by 1 pip.

I am now looking for this market to retrace to the 28 plus area in three waves, the first of which is either in or in its' concluding stages from yesterday lows.

Will have to see what price says when we see the 1.2800 whole number. 1st whole number above the large quarter of 1.2750.

 

take care folks

 

slick60

[Mysticforex 13]

So what's the deal folks? E/U keeps playing with the 12600 area. This weekend are the Greek Elections.

Is something going on behind the scenes?

Is it just short covering?

Any ideas, opinions?

[slick60 10]

Trading the 6E futures I like to sometimes scalp 5-10 pips at a time with proper set-ups that I use with indicators. I think I have shown this before, however here is another example from the 13th that I made for a friend.

I use a 12 range chart and especially follow the Williams %R 14 period indicator looking for extreme overbought and oversold as part of the signal. The 3 minute chart I now use to follow volume tells me if we are getting near a top or a bottom of a move. I also look at how the candle closes with the higher volumes. The 14-3-3 stochastic is a nice indicator to verify the OB or OS conditions most times. It will often lead on a roll over. Bollinger bands also give you a visual reference as to OB and OS. Note on the 3 minute the blue dotted lines. They are quarter points and are very important levels for taking trades.

On the example shown I will sell on %R OB just under the 1/4 point in this case. Normally I will see that my signals will take place with the close of a 12 range bar and place an entry order 1 pip above or below that range. Depending on where we are in the larger time-frame I will limit for 5 tics to "test the waters" so to speak. Each large move begins from the small time-frame and for multiple contract traders it may be a good way to position at the top or bottom of a move.

I hope this may be of some help to you.

 

2012-06-13_0605 - slick60's library

 

If you have questions please ask.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Updating the shenanigans of the euro I have a couple charts. One is the 4 hr with the delta point count and the 2nd is of a daily with the delta pt count on it.

Several scenarios at play here (as there always is). Short term I feel we will be retracing to the 2675 1/4 point area for this move bringing in the #4 point high OR it can continue into a later 4 high and move past the Sunday night high putting in a daily higher high and late ITD 4 point which I have now labelled with a question mark.

In short we have finished with the high of the retrace move at the #4 on daily chart or we continue to the 2824 level and then down OR it becomes a 1st wave up of a greater retrace that will take us to the 1.3600 to 1.3750 + level before going into the pit of despair.

Please stay tuned to "As the world turns"

 

4 hour http://screencast.com/t/rbuN2AKV6

daily 2012-06-19_0956 - slick60's library

 

good luck my friends

 

slick60

Edited June 19, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

Continuing with the saga of the euro I would like to post an hourly chart showing an Elliott Wave count that I am following at the present time. This chart represents the © wave of an a-b-c correction known as a flat which normally builds itself in a 3-3-5 form of waves. Note yesterday how the market stopped at a couple of .618 extensions within the wave structure coming down. I am now looking for a completion of this 5 waves down in the area of the 1.2439 price level. Here the final wave will be equal to wave (1) from the high and .382 times the wave (3) with a confluence of a .786 times the center 3rd wave extended.

Now this probably will not mean crap to most of you people who view this thread, however the end of the story is that I expect a reversal at this level between 9:00am and 1:00pm today which could move back to new highs as mentioned above in my last post.

I will also post a chart showing 4 hr delta points and how they developed since my last post.

And why not - show a chart with ITD and MTD delta points as to longer term timing.

I really hope some of this may help you. It is all I strive to do on this thread.

 

hourly 2012-06-26_0524 - slick60's library

4 hour 2012-06-26_0525 - slick60's library

daily 2012-06-26_0526 - slick60's library

 

You are welcome!

 

slick60

[MightyMouse 12]

Continuing with the saga of the euro I would like to post an hourly chart showing an Elliott Wave count that I am following at the present time. This chart represents the © wave of an a-b-c correction known as a flat which normally builds itself in a 3-3-5 form of waves. Note yesterday how the market stopped at a couple of .618 extensions within the wave structure coming down. I am now looking for a completion of this 5 waves down in the area of the 1.2439 price level. Here the final wave will be equal to wave (1) from the high and .382 times the wave (3) with a confluence of a .786 times the center 3rd wave extended.

Now this probably will not mean crap to most of you people who view this thread, however the end of the story is that I expect a reversal at this level between 9:00am and 1:00pm today which could move back to new highs as mentioned above in my last post.

I will also post a chart showing 4 hr delta points and how they developed since my last post.

And why not - show a chart with ITD and MTD delta points as to longer term timing.

I really hope some of this may help you. It is all I strive to do on this thread.

 

hourly 2012-06-26_0524 - slick60's library

4 hour 2012-06-26_0525 - slick60's library

daily 2012-06-26_0526 - slick60's library

 

You are welcome!

 

slick60

 

You expect a reversal. What are the implications of the reversal you expect? Does it mean that there is a favorable trade opportunity to take a long with a good R/R? Is this talk or are you going to take a trade there?

[slick60 10]

You expect a reversal. What are the implications of the reversal you expect? Does it mean that there is a favorable trade opportunity to take a long with a good R/R? Is this talk or are you going to take a trade there?

 

MM

Yes I intend to take a trade there if it occurs while I am home. Have hospital appointment where I have to leave 11am. Right now looks like we cud hit that level soon.

I have no idea what you feel is a good RR. Please look above as I said for possibilities.

Please let price speak to you at the indicated level. Crystal balls and soothsaying is not an exact science. I use market profile amongst other things to get a more definitive picture at a fib level that I feel fits the picture.

Good luck to you and others.

 

slick60

 

PS- thought I would add, I have a pending limit order to buy 1.2442, front running the 1.2439 by 3 pips.

Edited June 26, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

I have now cancelled my pending long entry order at 1.2442 along with my stop. The market came down in 3 waves from today's high and appears that the overall 5 wave move down is extending. I have posted a potential hourly wave count and possible scenario.

I will not be here to take and monitor any immediate action for a trade entry. Will have to wait. Watch price and let it tell you the story.

 

2012-06-26_0949 - slick60's library

 

slick 60

[slick60 10]

I have now cancelled my pending long entry order at 1.2442 along with my stop. The market came down in 3 waves from today's high and appears that the overall 5 wave move down is extending. I have posted a potential hourly wave count and possible scenario.

I will not be here to take and monitor any immediate action for a trade entry. Will have to wait. Watch price and let it tell you the story.

 

2012-06-26_0949 - slick60's library

 

slick 60

 

Shit - so goes life and my continuing chances at good trades fade away one more time because of health reasons. I just clclsuoiretgngvsbkjioseyuoiaerotgfoplki and lkjgdoperugjhfdufucfucuf to get it off my chest. I hope 65 pips is a reasonable reward to what was my 20 pip stop risk. 20 minutes after I left!! To wait once again.

I believe my 4 hr 7 low point is now in and the ITD 5 low which should portend to higher prices to come into the 1st week of July.

Larger cycles are pointing at this time to a high due sometime in the 1st week of September. We shall monitor and see.

 

Good luck folks

 

slick60

 

Now need to see some kind of pullback in order to get long I feel.

[MightyMouse 12]

Shit - so goes life and my continuing chances at good trades fade away one more time because of health reasons. I just clclsuoiretgngvsbkjioseyuoiaerotgfoplki and lkjgdoperugjhfdufucfucuf to get it off my chest. I hope 65 pips is a reasonable reward to what was my 20 pip stop risk. 20 minutes after I left!! To wait once again.

I believe my 4 hr 7 low point is now in and the ITD 5 low which should portend to higher prices to come into the 1st week of July.

Larger cycles are pointing at this time to a high due sometime in the 1st week of September. We shall monitor and see.

 

Good luck folks

 

slick60

 

Now need to see some kind of pullback in order to get long I feel.

 

One more hour would have done it.

 

Do you see EUR/USD as being in a down trend?

 

If yes, does your system attempt to call bottoms?

[slick60 10]

One more hour would have done it.

 

Do you see EUR/USD as being in a down trend?

 

If yes, does your system attempt to call bottoms?

 

Hi MM

It depends on your time frame that you are looking at as to whether we are in an up or down trend. Monthly-down; weekly-down; daily-down at present is what I would see. There are EW patterns that will support a move up to 1.2824 to 1.3650 area. That is what I felt we were doing on the June 1st turn with the massive volume that rolled in Rollover in all likelihood.. HOWEVER that being said I do not like the price action from yesterday's low. It is rather anemic and suspect to me at this time with the lack of follow-thru.

I look for bottoms and tops all the time in every time frame that I attempt to trade. I do this by observing price action at support and resistance areas, together with an Elliott Wave pattern completing an impulse or corrective move and Delta points that are due on average coming in. More emphasis is placed on moves that are ending at or very near a quarter point and there is a fibonacci confluence at this level. I monitor price action at these areas on market profile to see if we are in or out of balance and preferably above or below the value area. I try to catch an end of auction spike on weak volume for a trade entry. This is catching the tops or bottoms of price moves.

As you know anything can happen at any given time in the currency markets - and it does. EW patterns continue to morph into something else, delta points extend or come in early and it ALL DEPENDS ON THEMS THAT HAS THE MONEY AND JUST WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH IT!

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I have now cancelled my pending long entry order at 1.2442 along with my stop. The market came down in 3 waves from today's high and appears that the overall 5 wave move down is extending. I have posted a potential hourly wave count and possible scenario.

I will not be here to take and monitor any immediate action for a trade entry. Will have to wait. Watch price and let it tell you the story.

 

2012-06-26_0949 - slick60's library

 

slick 60

 

I would like to update this post as it appears my suspicions were well founded. The euro did move down exactly to the point that I was looking at but the wave pattern still appeared to be extending to me. A snap of a 1 hour chart below shows the wave count that I perceive and am working from. The sharp move down into 5 am to the 1.2407 level appears to be a fifth wave blow off fibonacci related to the 1st and third waves of the structure from the high. A reverse move did in fact come as I suspected and has been counted out in EW on a 1 hour chart.

This move from June 1 low has been a continual barrage of 3 wave patterns and this one at present to the Friday high carries the same look. I expecting a pullback retrace and then continuation up into the end this week July 6. An ITD high is due then and may shed some light onto where this move may go into the summer. My weekly charts are showing longer term cycles that say up into Sept this year. We will have to monitor and see where a price projection might take us.

 

hourly 2012-07-01_1857 - slick60's library

4 hour points 2012-07-01_1858 - slick60's library shows a 10 high point due perhaps overnight.

daily 2012-07-01_1859 - slick60's library shows a blue ITD 6 high due on average July 6 together with a red MTD 3 high [medium term delta] due in the same time area.

 

Watch these turning points and let price and the market profile tell you when the move is complete for a high probability low risk trade.

 

Good trading people./ take care

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Often times when the market zooms one way or another in a substantial move it will bring in a point high or low early. That is the case this time around I feel with my 4 hr 10 high I was looking for. You can see from my chart that we should have a low and another high into Friday sometime at the 12. How deep will we go and what form will it take, one has to wait?

 

4hr 2012-07-02_1200 - slick60's library

 

slick60