EURUSD Et Al Trading

[slick60 10]

This is a re-post of a chart I showed in post 72, the 4 hr chart. Plain to see nobody gives a crap about Elliott Wave reading these posts as there was a glaring mistake on that chart in relation to the 4th wave retrace. Damn, I made a mistake. Shit!

In any event the 4th wave should be where it appears on this chart. Do not wish to mislead anyone with the EW counting.

 

2012-01-25_1007 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Market waiting for FOMC

Here is a profile chart showing yesterday European session which has already been posted describing the "b" formation and spike. I have merged together yesterday's U.S. session trend day, also shown on a previous post today with a description, together with the overnight narrow 30 pip Asian session and the start of the European session today ending at 4:15 am break. Note the defined "p" pattern going up. This signifies mainly short covering taking place and also ending with the spike opportunistic high. The latter being a sign of the end of an auction. Now we are into a defined "b" pattern at present which represents long liquidation taking place and any new selling is being done by those who are more patient than day traders. The patterns of market generated information are helpful in trying to understand who is at play in the market. Day traders and shorter time frame players are in charge of the market today. The bid and ask market makers.

 

2012-01-25_1026 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Maybe turn out to be one big spike back to the morning balance area. Big hole to fill in the profile.

 

2012-01-25_1234 - slick60's library

 

slick

 

AND a bloody BIG spike it is. Blew me away. 1.3084 a possible stopping point for now on a possible double three or triangle formation.

Edited January 25, 2012 by slick60

[TimRacette 11]

For about a year and a half I would chart market profile excel, manually. It was a fantastic exercise and really helped me understand the market structure of the S&P500. When it comes down to making money though, I found the 6E to have much greater risk/reward ratios. The ES is great, because it's technical, it just chops you up sometime, stopping you out and then reversing.

 

Tim

[slick60 10]

I don't know if this morphing SOB is done messing with us yet or not. I think it has for today and now if we can get a wipe out over the next few days everything will be just dandy. Thems that knows the news beforehand had their day again today. They never lose!

Couple things happened in my eyes. We got past the 75 pip hesitation zone resistance at 1.3075 to a 1.382 retrace as shown on the chart. We also tapped the whole number 1.3100 above the large quarter which now tells us we are going to make an assault on the next large quarter at 1.3250. A strong move to show continuation while achieving the LQ is generally 3 days. If we do not do that it will be a possible sign of exhaustion as it nears its goal.

We now have morphed into another potential wave count and that being a double three in the making. Marked on the chart. Looking to complete the "B" portion of correction.

Today also now marks 8 trading days up from the low which is a nice fibo count. The Delta count is still in tact and now we need a low for ITD 3 to base for the "C" wave up.

 

2012-01-25_1407 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

For about a year and a half I would chart market profile excel, manually. It was a fantastic exercise and really helped me understand the market structure of the S&P500. When it comes down to making money though, I found the 6E to have much greater risk/reward ratios. The ES is great, because it's technical, it just chops you up sometime, stopping you out and then reversing.

 

Tim

 

I made 1 excel profile and realized there had to be a better way that does not tap you for a ton and ongoing mortgage payments on the software. I found Final - Home software being used a bunch on sites. So I got myself the TPO Chart software for $249.00 and stuck it into Ninja Trader that I use at no cost. There is no monthly fee for the TPO software. You have seen the charts I produce with it. I am happy with it the way I look at the market. There certainly is more expensive profile software out there that is more flexible, but I don't need it to paint the fence and pour the coffee etc for me. Got a hedge anyway - lol.

6E does give you a bang for your buck very quickly these days and I do not think it is going to stop anytime soon.

 

slick

[slick60 10]

It is bewildering as I try to share my work with others. As I chart and plot my way through waves and moves I generally run into no problems. It is when I share that the "soothsayer's curse" as I call it kicks in. I have revised the daily chart that will be familiar to most of you. From the May 4, 2010 high at 1.4940 we put in an A_B_C formation to the 1.4549 high shown on the chart. We are now looking to move down in 5 waves to an ending low for this large campaign. Our first move down where we find the purple A fits well as a three wave structure. We then had a 3 wave retrace to 1.4247 "MINI" on the chart. We now can count an A-B-C down from 1.4247 as being complete and now we are putting in the 4th wave "D" for the move. That is "ME" in the box. Mini Me - a fractal. 1.3145 should be resistance for this move north. We shall see.

The Delta ITD count will work out if this does not stretch much more as it is being drawn late by the larger MTD cycle. It would be nice to have that crystal ball I eluded to earlier, but I don't. My wife broke it!

Off to see my oncology team tomorrow. The last visit was at the 1.4247 high. It will not surprise me in the least to come home and find a reversal on my charts one more time with lost opportunity.

Let's see where this baby runs to.

 

2012-01-25_1850 - slick60's library

 

slick

 

How do you like my 22 year old cat?

[slick60 10]

Everybody has heard of trading M's and W's. Looking at a 15 minute chart this morning I am waiting for the market maker to tip his hand and give me some direction for trade. I need to see sharp vol increase and momentum [conviction] going out the top or the bottom of the present range as shown. Asia was a 43 pip range and opportunities should be outside of that balance with conviction.

We shall see - soon

 

2012-01-26_0407 - slick60's library

profile and 2 min 6E http://screencast.com/t/TUdf9IMRJNES

slick

[slick60 10]

Where is this thing wanting to go?

I have a 15 min chart with a wave count that looks to me that maybe 1.3140 to 1.3156 area may be an end of wave area.

I have the central pivot at 1.3052 and London generally will move the market toward that in session.

 

2012-01-26_0430 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Away most of the day today. I see that we have run into a roadblock of sorts at the 1.3175 level. This is an area of support and resistance back to Aug 11, 2010 when supply came into the market sticking in a 325 pip down move correcting the up move from 1.1876. It has acted as support / resistance several times since then. Most recently it became support on Oct 3, 2011 and acceleration the following day with a 223 pip bullish engulfing candle. Supply came in Dec 13 breaking eventually to the 1.2623 low. So once again here we are with a daily high unable to close above the 1.3175 in the form of a southern doji. The doji is especially good at market highs showing a reversal. 1.3175 is the hesitation zone before the next large quarter at 1.3250. We quickly slipped back to the whole number 1.3100 acting as support for the time being.

My view at present is that any retrace toward the high at this time is a good shorting opportunity as the market works its way back to the last large quarter at 1.3000. I feel we may even go below that to the 1.2875 level - the midpoint between large quarters that offered support with the gap down open at the start of the week.

 

hourly quarters chart 2012-01-26_1853 - slick60's library

daily quarter and delta 2012-01-26_1854 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

To "b" or not to "p" that is the question.

On the profile chart you can see defined b and p patterns. P represents short covering while the 'b' signifies long liquidation.

Should fresh selling come into the overnight market we will probably see a defined down move. Hopefully they will give me a retrace to get short.

 

market profile 2012-01-26_1912 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Central pivot today is 1.3127, just above the midpoint 1.3125. From the European close into the USA session at 9:30 yesterday the inventory is just about 100% short. That means someone went long coming down to the lows. If I am correct that we may have a high is place a 1.3183 for the time being the guys that bought the longs and are holding need to unload. I see a stop zone above the 1.3120 area probably up to the 1.3130 or so area. I will monitor action at that point if we get there to position short.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Watch for a possible spike opportunity at 8:30am on news perhaps to the 1.3173 level and then south. Maybe all the way back to 1.2375 area.

 

here is a profile showing P at present and wud like a spike tail ending auction into the 70-75 area. That is Utopia

 

2012-01-27_0800 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

This is gonna be a long post I suspect - need to vent!!!!!! and teach.

I gotta make this post. I am sitting here watching this market somewhat churning from high to low to a new high and listening to Steve Mauro one more time talking about the market makers. He has already long ago told us in webinars that the dealers have got our orders right in front of them. The pending buys, sells. stops, limits, the list goes on. I believe this - they have my playbook. While doing so I am following trend line breaks on the 15 min charts. I have Trade Station for my forex platform. At approximately 11:00am price snaps north thru a t-line with momentum and I get a "Disconnected from Trade Desk" or whatever it says from TS. My connection goes down and the charts stop. This is where I have my LIVE account for forex. It is down for about 5 minutes and then I get the "Data connection" pop up back. Charts start rolling. In my "order Window" I see they have changed my pair from EURUSD to USDJPY even though my charts that are live are all EURUSD. Now I have to change back to my pair that I want to trade. Understand this - TS THE DEALER/MARKET MAKER found himself on the wrong side of the move and shut us down.. How do I know this? I am also running a 2nd computer with my futures platform powered by Zen-fire and it does not skip a beat. Steve continues to talk all the time TS is down on that computer. Just f....ing lovely. Having your playbook is not enough, they still have to pry the rocks up to crawl under them.

Now look at your trading platforms. Hover your mouse over one of the hot buttons for buy, sell etc and you will see them pulse or do something. Don't click the mouse and BET your ass you are sending your intentions to the platform dealer. Do you ever wonder why so many updates to your platform? Well some SOB that programs for them has come up with another way to tap your platform. Geez, I wonder if they can see me take a p......! Gotta shut the door to my bathroom - haha.

I chart trade in Ninja Trader. I will not use a DOM. Do you wonder why especially when the dealing desk tells you it is the only way that orders will be recognized - that chart trading has flaws and they may not execute your stops etc. Let me explain to you. I can enter orders off a tic chart, 2 min, 5 min, 240 min, day and you name it. They have no idea where I am or what I want to do. In a DOM your total order flow from any chart sends the message and you are visible. I was told by my futures dealing desk to use the DOM. I have never had a problem with a chart fill. It is bullshit.

Did you honestly think you were dealing with a market making network where your order is paired up with somebody an ocean away in nano seconds? They can't even make cell phones work from a hollow in a roadway.

To all the dealers out there providing data to you through their special platforms - take a hike and s.... you. You are the lowest form of life that is using oxygen on this planet!

HEY GUYS AND GIRLS - USE BUY AND SELL MARKET ORDERS and keep your mouse away from those buttons until you are ready. You get in a trade - monitor it - screw the stops. Until you can do that you leave yourself wide open and they will continue to punish you until your account is gone or you are margined out.

 

slick60

Edited January 27, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

We are within striking distance of the next Large Quarter at 1.3250. We are resting above the "hesitation zone" and long term support/resistance at 1.3175. New high on the move. Will we fulfill that quarter. Remains to be seen. Stalling in the 25 pip overshoot area under the LQ would be a sign of weakness and a reversal would be almost assured. I am not betting any of my money on this move at this time. I am standing aside and waiting for the signal that we are on our way down to the low 20's or below.

 

hourly quarter points chart 2012-01-27_1226 - slick60's library

 

she is sure looking cooked, but I think I have said that before.

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

A work in progress

Note - a whole lot of question marks.

 

http://screencast.com/t/C5897ycd

 

slick

Edited January 27, 2012 by slick60
Cleaned up chart

[slick60 10]

I am always looking for possibilities and sharing my findings with those who choose to read this thread. It keeps me occupied. For all the Elliott naysayers out there this is a good market at present as the EURUSD continues to be a continual move of either-ors and at times makes one feel like they do not have a clue. There is always a developing picture which I monitor for opportunity as it fulfills a possibility. We are at such a juncture at this time as one can see on the posted chart and knowing a few of the Elliott rules.

I wish to point out structure on this chart with the (2) and(4) waves shown. (2) is a very weak a-b-c flat and (4) is at present an a-b-c zig zag that will measure 1.618 x wave (2) at the 1.3245 area. I stated some time ago this was what to look for in structure and that it would be a move of significance. Blowing me away with the strength.

Elliott Rule - waves 2 and 4 will alternate in pattern. So if wave 2 is a flat then wave 4 will be a zig zag or a triangle. If this move continues with a sign of strength past the 1.618 measure then I will have to consider the "A" - "D" alternate count shown on the chart. If so where will it go?

In the Quarters theory we have fulfilled price movement to the 1.3250 Large Quarter and we did it with strength on a 3 day move after the 1.3000 level had been tested. 1.3250 becomes a very important benchmark at this time.

I apologize for the long posts - I have a lot to say.

 

Daily line chart 2012-01-28_0641 - slick60's library

Hourly quarters http://screencast.com/t/yPFN7HdNM1m

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Saturday morning - more analysis.

I wish to show you a scrunched up market profile chart with individual profiles for the week of Jan 22 - 27, 2012. Need to pull profiles tightly to fit them all on one snap. Note especially the failure of the value area in pink to migrate north with price during the last 6 hours of trade on Friday. This can be a sign of weakness and close scrutiny should be paid to this pair during Sunday open into Monday session.

Visual targets that act like magnets in market profile are the naked POC's. These are the Point of Control or fairest price of value during a session and have remained untouched by ensuing price action. The 24 hour profiles depicted here are from 1700 hrs EST starting on Sunday.

I have labelled some of the Quarter points on this chart also for reference purposes. No Elliott Waves on this chart - thankfully - lol.

In my opinion we are fast exhausting this move and in the least we are setting up for a reversal correction.

My advice is to be very cautious taking long positions at this level.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/ca610823-9026-4966-97b2-78cc7bdafc3a/2012-01-28_0901.png

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Associated Press -

Jan 28, 2012 — Greece and investors who own its bonds reach a tentative deal to significantly reduce the country's debt and pave the way for it to receive a much-needed €130 billion bailout.

Smells of opportunity to me for a reversal - all this good news from the savior!

 

Bond Issues

Issues ISIN Coupon Volume

Greece, 2012-1, EUR GR0110021236 4.3% 1450000000

 

End of placement Maturity date

17.02.2009 20.03.2012

 

Trying to show a Greek Bond issue due Mar 20, 2012. Here is url if it does not work

http://www.cbonds.info/em/eng/pages/Greece-bond?gclid=CLPgxvvP9a0CFYkDQAodlny4cg

 

So many zeros on the bond issue coming due on Mar 20 I don't know what it is - ha ha ha!

$62,350,000.00 interest due plus a bunch of paper that I don't really think that I would buy again. Cash in the chips! Dip into the fund! Best to pay it with a devalued currency! This issue was completed in 2009 at the 1.25000 level in the euro. Do you suppose it may head that way again by March 20th?

Reference my daily chart lower trend line. When am I expecting a major low to come in with Delta timing? What is the fibonacci extension down to. Have we created an opportunity for the large market makers to grab our accounts recently?

I have posted my feelings within this thread.

 

So when we look after Europe what about the U.S. debt? Will be time to drive the dollar the other way. Man it is scary and thank you to Goldman Sachs et al there is no way out.

 

"Inside Job" - Great documentary movie. Good trading everyone.

 

slick60

 

Sorry for the appearance of this post. TL does not post what you see when you type.

Edited January 29, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

The strength of this market has been fooling me and others I will bet for a while now. Good news may just ramp it up. One has to be prepared to go with price and wait for the clear reversal. I have worked a bunch this weekend and do have a possibility of continuation short term for about 3 days after a minor set back possibly. I have two charts to show. The daily with wave pattern has been adjusted to my primary count. I will not dismiss a retrace still up to the 50% level as shown. The 2nd chart is my Delta chart with the blue ITD points placed as possibilities at this time allowing for fruition of the up move perhaps by Wednesday the 1st. That will give us 13 trading days up from the low and will create symmetry with an 8 day move down into the low on a daily chart. I feel that the high will be put in place this eek.

 

wave count 2012-01-29_1341 - slick60's library

Delta 2012-01-29_1342 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

This 15 minute chart shows what I am looking at presently. 5 waves down tells me we are not done - but - we shud be due for a bit of retrace in here at least. It also shows short inventory has probably been balanced from Friday's run away.

 

2012-01-30_0803 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Looking at the hourly chart it is interesting to see that the move down from the high of 158 pips stopped at the hesitation zone 1.3075, 75 pips above the large quarter 1.3000. Note the retrace levels shown on the chart, especially the .618 back up to the 1.3175 hesitation zone quarter just left. Also visualize a head and shoulders pattern should we retrace to the 618 or the 786 at the whole number. Project a break of the neck line and that will take us down to the hesitation zone below the 1.3000 large quarter at 1.2925. These are areas to watch and possible targets to head for.

Watch out for stops below the 1.3075 level.

 

2012-01-30_1050 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Volume as I get it represented to me through Trade Station is shown per session on this profile chart. Something is going on today in a balanced European session. Has value all of a sudden become "I need to get in at 1.3200 level". OR could we be having a changing of the guard called distribution by the bigger money preparing for the next move down?

Are all the hedge funds etc all of a sudden realizing they have missed the boat from 1.2623 level and deciding collectively that this is a good spot to get in.

Please help me or learned ones or forex gods. I cannot see paying 575 pips more for something that was available 2 weeks ago. If the hedge funds are doing this then we really need to get new financial advisors. Hell I think I saw the lows, did I not?

 

profile chart 2012-01-31_0738 - slick60's library

 

Cheers everyone slick60

[slick60 10]

I have a 4 hr chart here that shows my short term cycle points when due on average. This last cycle has not been an easy one to read. Had me flip flopping both ways trying to get a proper handle on this last cycle. The power of the move will sometimes distort exactly where the cycle points are, highs or lows. We are in what is know as the "inversion" period when an extra point may come into the cycle as you can see by the {12} at top right. We may also have an inverted 1 which means an extra [1] point may appear. At times it is difficult to have the correct placement. Once price movement gives you the clues of confirmation smooth sailing is expected within the rules for the rest of the cycle. My next high point at this time is due on average on the 9am 4 hour bar tomorrow morning. We shall see what the market has to say about it come morning. 4 hour moves are nice to catch - they are not position trades but certainly can yield a lot of pips..

We made an a-b-c move from the 1.2623 low to the high of 1.3234. We have a lower high and lower low. I expect a move down to at least the (B) level in the area of .618 retrace as shown on this chart. Price may have something to say about that!

 

4 hr 2012-01-31_1647 - slick60's library

 

Go get them pips.

slick60

[slick60 10]

You have to wonder. How is a guy ever to be able to make a buck at this currency trading game with the BIG money hedge funds etc, market maker banks and brokers out there. Yesterday they had to make up a contrived month-end balance sheet to convince the general public to let them keep their money for the time being and so the ""experts"" (ha ha) who run the funds can get their month-end bonuses. What a manipulated crock of BS. We have no choice but to try and trade in line with them or just stand aside until regular trading resumes. At this time, today is not that day yet. The chart I wish to share is that of the Aussie, Euro and DX futures. DX/dollar manipulation at its' finest in my opinion. Check out the "where did this come from" volume on the DX chart at 1:45-2:15 am today. We NEVER get a volume burst in the DX at this time of day unless it is manipulation of the board.

100 - 125 pip moves in all the majors against the dollar. The paltry returns that these guys get bonuses for is so laughable.

IT ONLY TAKES MONEY!!!

 

2012-02-01_0556 - slick60's library

 

slick60