EURUSD Et Al Trading

[slick60 10]

Sometimes you have to just bare your chart of everything and look at basic price. In this hourly chart I am showing my potential wave count for this move up from the 1.2623 low. It has been a difficult move to put a wave pattern to. I still feel it is a corrective move and not THE great move north to the moon at this time - despite all the record short interest.

So at present this interpretation opens the door for this move to continue to a new high to put a final 5th wave in - guessing at the 1.3008 level where it would be equal to the distance traveled of the 2nd wave in this series. That would be the red box shown on previous daily charts.

 

http://screencast.com/t/5zNYkTcIHM

 

slick

 

This 4 hr chart shows where my short term cycle 7 high is due and an alternate price projection of the © and (5)th waves coming together in the 1.3008 area.

 

http://screencast.com/t/tpwjwWvWUb

Edited January 20, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

A quick post to show alternate count which may be giving the glaring message of this move is done. It completes a double zig zag at a relationship of © = 1.382 x (A)

On the 5 min chart waves are out of whack to each other and this can only be a corrective move south at this time in my opinion

 

Hourly chart shows alternate count in the letters with red boxes on them

 

2012-01-20_0448 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Trying to reason this out as fast as I can. 5 min chart is showing me a wave count that may have an initial resting area around the 1.2875 quarter point

 

2012-01-20_0520 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Like playing chess with the market makers. What will his next move be to throw up a smoke screen? Trying to keep tabs of possibilities in this 5 minute chart. It changes very quickly as the MM weaves his magic thru the market on the way to getting your account - and trying for mine too!!

 

2012-01-20_0628 - slick60's library

 

slick

 

Very few like an Elliott Wave count because it is so subjective. I agree, however price does not sit still nor does time, thus the wave count can continue to morph into its' final pattern. I am very well aware of this having used EW for over 35 years. When uncertainty reigns hold onto your money - do not flaunt it in front of the market maker because he will not be opposed to snatching it from you. I do not see 100% direction at this time - if somebody does, please help me out.

Edited January 20, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

I am guessing at present that the "bid and ask" guys got hammered pretty good yesterday and got too short with their inventory with what I saw as Japanese intervention taking place. These guys have been given the right to facilitate trade and someone had to be taking the wrong side for most of yesterday. The yen cross currencies were worked pretty good and then the single currency boomed a short while later. Today at present I am seeing a somewhat "b" pattern building in the market profile which is supposedly long liquidation and we have a balancing of inventory taking place. From here patterns say we can go up and delta cycles say we have had enough and we can go down for a nice retrace. We are closer to the high than the "to be" low so my money is waiting for some good confirmation.

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Here is a look at the EURUSD and the EURCAD 15 min charts that I follow showing nice entry points for 50 pip trades this morning. Nice dark cloud candle stick patterns on both of them. Take a trade on the break of the t-line or less risky with the pullback under the t-line on the 2nd bar.

 

2012-01-20_0735 - slick60's library

 

I missed these as I myopically watched fiber. Need to broaden my view to opportunities in the other pairs.

Please post your set-ups if they will help the little guy to win!

It is soooooo easy to look at the left side of the charts.

 

slick

[slick60 10]

You can tell I'm bored right now. Look out! Here is a chart of cable - GBPUSD showing how I have some kind of idea where the trend may be at any given time. It helps to keep me on the right side of the market. This comes from an understanding of the delta cycles.

 

2012-01-20_0808 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Here is a snap of the market profile coming into the U.S. session in 25 minutes. Overnight in Europe we have had long liquidation, balancing of inventory taking place. This is the familiar "b" pattern describing such action. As James Dalton describes it - The b-shaped pattern is one that you will see often, and it represents two things: (1) Sellers are primarily liquidating long positions (the opposite of a short-covering rally), rather than a combination of long liquidation and new shorting: and (2) buyers are at least more patient than sellers. This is important to note because these patient buyers are not in it for a "day trade", rather some longer time frame - at least overnight.

 

2012-01-20_0906 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Where are the trading opportunities? How do I catch a winner? Using hindsight as an example today I wish to show you a snap of my two monitors together in the 15 minute time frame. This is a 15 min price chart ending at 10:30am Jan 17, and a split and squeezed market profile chart of the action of Jan 15 to Jan 17th.

I started studying Elliott Wave about 35 years ago; I have been using Delta cycles from the Delta Phenomenon/Market Matrix for approximately 7 years; I read, followed and studied Wyckoff for a couple years; I have read Tom Williams books and attempted to apply Volume Spread Analysis to my trading; I have books in my library on candlestick charting-Steve Nison; Larry Williams was my hero for commodity trading back in the 70's and now I have been studying market profile for almost 2 years with understanding from James Dalton's two books on the subject. Like most in search of the holy grail of trading. Nobody has shown me how to get rich OR I am I guess a very slow learner. Today I want to show you this example of what will satisfy the appetite of most traders who may read this post. If you do not understand what you are looking at please grab a webinar of Steve Mauro at https://www.marketmakersforex.com/videos.php . He is doing another webinar at 4pm Jan 22/12 at this site if u may be interested https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/130618042 . PLEASE DO NOT THINK that I am in any way connected to MMfx or CompassFX . Someone pointed me to his site a couple months ago and to me it was in fact "like he says-the last piece of the puzzle".

In the chart attached I have more than what Steve talks about but at present I think it is good information to have for me anyway.

If this information is of any value to you, please all you lurkers and others, take 2 minutes to go to your keypad and say so. Thank you in advance. Trading is a difficult business to me and I will focus more on trading.

 

2012-01-22_0722 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

We are just about at the level I am expecting a correction.

 

This level in here at the Large Quarter of 1.3000, in EW wave count this wave 4 will equal wave 2 at 1.3008, as shown on chart 1.3002 is a 1.144 fib retrace and pric e in this area will support the delta cycle count as shown on the 4 hr chart and also longer term on the daily charts.

This is an area to watch very closely for a pullback at this time I think.

 

2012-01-23_0628 - slick60's library

 

 

slick

Edited January 23, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

I am looking at the 1.3030 level for potential high. Have order in to sell short at 1.3025

 

 

slick

 

Buy stop 1.3045

Uncomfortable with flattened tops on shorter term charts - position taken off 1.30249

Edited January 23, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

There are fib retracements up to the 1.3046 level at this time, a naked POC from Jan 4 at 1.3037, the yearly high is in view at 1.3076, the hesitation quarter is at 1.3075 -

Enough stuff for me to stand aside and let this market prove itself to me before I short it again.

Opportunity came this morning long with the break of the balanced Asian session as shown on this profile chart

 

http://screencast.com/t/FRp3cO0BqIIV

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

With the delta cycle points coming due at this point I have to be alert for a turn to the downside for a retracement or continuation of the total move. I am treating this still as a corrective wave 4 for the red box to complete before the final move down in this series. I can get fooled but this is my view at this time. I have a corrective level of 1.3075 as a .382 retrace which may be met during the Asian session or into tomorrow morning. The high due is the ITD delta cycle high 2 as shown on the Delta chart.

This may be the total retrace OR we can go down and then come back to a new high perhaps around the 50% retrace level of 1.3215 by the end of this month or into 1st week of February. There is a medium term cycle high due on the 7th of February which may come early (if not in at this time). 4 hour cycle points are for a low due on this 9pm bar and then into a high sometime tomorrow - I suspect early in the cycle.

Narrow range balancing overnight and little pop tomorrow to set up a short trade perhaps. That is what I look for at this time.

 

2012-01-23_1738 - slick60's library

Delta chart 2012-01-23_1756 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[TimRacette 11]

Hey slick, do you use market profile exclusively on EUR/USD? I've used it on the S&P, but not the currencies.

[slick60 10]

Hey slick, do you use market profile exclusively on EUR/USD? I've used it on the S&P, but not the currencies.

 

Hi Tim

Read your profile and see we have traded the same things, ES and 6E. I traded ES exclusively for about 1 1/2 years and moved to the 6E when S & P was in the doldrums and volatility/opportunities looked better in currencies. I tried some of the same entry techniques for the 6E as I heard in the JPJ trading room and they did not work as well. MP does seem to be very good in currencies however. It really is the only TRUE barometer of price activity in forex that I can see.

 

slick

[slick60 10]

I feel we are building a plateau of distribution at present and it will only be a matter of time before the stop run below 1.2985 begins. Profile chart showing the distribution.

 

2012-01-24_0731 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Retrace to 1.3033-34 and away she'll go south.

 

This is what I see or they have fooled the hell out of me!

 

http://screencast.com/t/Sw7rmd9D

 

slick

Edited January 24, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

I have a market profile snap to show with a couple labels on same. Please note the shape "b" pattern and the end of session,as I keep them, price spike. James Dalton teaches in Markets in Profile that "late spikes are often the completion of an auction when they follow the "b" and "P" patterns". I feel there was a lot of short interest put on the books while everyone went on a buying rampage for a week. Someone took the short side of all that buying and the only way to get paid is to reverse the market. It is not only us, the little retail trader that places orders through the bid and ask market makers. Big money also uses the MM's to facilitate trade and have to keep him in the game. Subsequently Big money will allow the MM to get his ass out of hawk and get paid.

I view this pause at present to allow more distribution to take place at higher prices. We may not put in a new high above this morning but rest assured the bottom will fall out of this market when the inventory has been balanced once again.

Hope this makes sense.

 

2012-01-24_1003 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I am sitting here this morning with a short bias - that is not good! I should be waiting for the market to tell me where it wants to go. The better than expected German business climate gave a little opportunity for the market makers to suck in some longs and roll more of their inventory at higher levels. From yesterday's shakeout we had a grinding trend day back up to about where we started. However in the process we plotted a warning sign in the market profile - the "P" pattern - just before the end of session spike. This was perhaps a sign that the market was having a difficult time going north. The 30 pip Asian range and into the euro/London session continues to say the same. We have the FOMC minutes and rate at 12:30pm EST today. MPC to release statement in about 1/2 hour.

We moved into the next large quarter above 1.3000 couple days ago and have been having trouble getting up through the hesitation zone which is at 1.3075. Resistance resides at that level and that may be something holding back right now.

My Delta point daily cycle high is past due but we are in an up market. This is normal behavior. It tells me that once our high is in place we should move in a correction lower BUT this high will be taken out over the next few weeks.

I took a short at 1.3032 and was going to hold. Nothing says we cannot go higher in here, the narrow ranges may turn into support rather than resistance.

Profile snap shows narrow ranges and the 4am spike. AND as I take this snap the SOB goes south

 

2012-01-25_0428 - slick60's library

 

If & when we transition the hesitation zone we should make a move toward the next large quarter at 1.3250. Beneath that is where I think we will run into our corrective high in the 1.3200 area and then complete our move south.

 

http://screencast.com/t/EFOsKGGVxDPg

 

slick

Edited January 25, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

Do we make the break south here for our correction? Here is a snap of 15 min chart with price break and fib price projections.

Also update hourly quarters chart with EW count. Note how the 1.2975 overshoot quarter put the brakes on this move south.

 

15 min 2012-01-25_0520 - slick60's library

hourly 2012-01-25_0521 - slick60's library

 

slick 60

[slick60 10]

Do we now have another shake out in the making? A view of market profile split at this time with the break.

 

2012-01-25_0526 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Have a 4 hr chart here showing a wave count of 5 waves complete and now into a retrace. Ont the hourly chart I have labeled the waves (A) thru (E) as they appear to be broken down into 3's which to me is another sign that this move is corrective and not impulsive. I would like to point out that this 5 wave move is what I consider "text book" in as much as the 2nd wave was a flat and the 4th wave a zig zag satisfying the rule of alternation and the relationship of the 1st wave to the 3rd and 5th in this case. Looks good to me - has the right look.

 

I apologize if the numbers scattered all over the chart are confusing. I know what they mean and quickly see them or don't see them. 4 hr cycle times for highs and lows are also shown on this chart. Possible area of retrace for this move to take us down to before the completion on the upside.

 

2012-01-25_0550 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Having fun with my crystal ball this morning. Wave pattern that was and is and will be - MAYBE

 

2012-01-25_0648 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

If any of you folks have read back on this thread you know that I have mentioned Steve Mauro and his market makers. Here is a snap showing somewhat of what he teaches which is quite valid. Asia high and low get set by the dealer and they go sideways into the euro session generally. The MM will make his quick move trapping traders to his benefit and then reverse the market. Today his opportunity was on the release of euro economic information that they knew the info beforehand and spiked the market. It went to a 1.144 x the Asia range and reversed. The entry point is shown where to take the trade and the rest is now history in the making.

Hope this helps somewhat.

 

2012-01-25_0732 - slick60's library

 

slick60

 

Had to hydrate my cat in mid post otherwise price would look better. Will take a snap and show a target on market profile

http://screencast.com/t/Kp9ER35J

[slick60 10]

In this post I wish to point out how the delta cycles come into play in my work. I know that few if any of you folks reading my posts know anything about the Delta Phenomenon aka The Market Matrix.

I am giving you target levels that I feel will be achieved and my reasoning for them. I have previously mentioned the 1.2875 level as a possible retrace and here I would like to mention that not only is it a 1.618 x the 1st move down yesterday but it is also a midpoint in the Quarters Theory. ( You guys should read that book-good information ). Geez it looks like we may get there very quickly - and if we do then the retrace level may very well be lower. However time needs to be somewhat satisfied and on this chart you can see that we are now moving down to an ITD (Intermediate term Delta) #3 low which is due on average on Feb 6th. In an up market this point will normally come early and more than likely will on this occasion. Maybe very early!

Note that in the overall down market the blue ITD 1 came late and now the blue ITD 2 has also. Also note the red MTD 9 low (Medium term Delta) also came quite late - normal. The MTD 10 high is next turning target.

We are moving down to the MTD 11 due around 1st week of March in my view. For those of you who feel we have turned the corner and now we are on the stairway to heaven I will say this. Be careful. If a cycle low was coming at the last turn then the low ITD and MTD points would not have been late. They will be early or on time.

Enough said here - I lose my readers with big posts. Most traders like wham bam thank you mam.

 

2012-01-25_0856 - slick60's library

 

slick60