EURUSD Et Al Trading

[slick60 10]

Which way is this euro going to go. We all know it is on its' way to hell in a hand basket - right? Checking the open interest in the Euro Futures for the Friday down draft we find there was an increase of over 11,000 contracts on a down day. Short open interest is at record levels and mainly being taken by the large speculators. They are supposedly the Big money, the Smart money etc blah blah blah. Here is a snap of the Jan 10/12 COT (Commitment of Traders) report. Look at the number of long vs short contracts held by the large specs. It is better than a 6.2 to 1 ratio short. This is an extreme position. I have learned that these same large specs are notoriously wrong at major turning points in the market.

Have they already missed the boat on this turn? Hopefully not. I have cycles due into a high near the end of this month or sooner. I am hoping that I have not miscounted my waves and we will still have that final plunge into March where the large specs should be all over themselves on the short band wagon.

Take a look what this group did for a couple weeks after the 1.4247 high in October last year.

 

http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/EC.png

 

Also shown below is the CME currency futures report for Jan 13/12. Note the stats on the blue highlighted line.

 

http://screencast.com/t/rAQ3Ssq4

 

I think the market makers got themselves too long during Friday's action and today was a balancing of their inventory. What do I know? A trader recently told me "I know I don't know" and that is valuable to know. :rofl:

 

slick

Edited January 17, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

Another little pop in the euro similar to yesterday. London open and drive it down then reverse on the 4:00am 15 minute bar. My short term delta high is late which is a norm in an up market. A high is expected anytime now on this 4 hour bar until 9:00 am. The HOD may be in at this time. The next low is due 9:00am tomorrow morning. I still view this move off the lows as being the first portion of a zig zag corrective move.

 

http://screencast.com/t/0Obv6xVU7wuy

 

slick

[slick60 10]

One of those crappy sit and watch days that is getting narrower by the move. Appears to me that we are building an ending diagonal pattern which consists of 5 waves all having 3 waves each. I have a 15 min chart to show with a potential wave count and as I keep mentioning this is probably the first section of a larger zig zag pattern still with some room to roam north. There is some fibonacci confluence at the 1.2917 level where I feel this wave structure may come to rest. Today at the 1.2863 level we hit a .618 retrace of the 2nd wave length from the original 1 - 2 down from 1.4247. At present I am still sitting with my thoughts of this market going higher over the next week and one half, after which we should have a good move south into a meaningful low for a long trade north.

 

Good trading everyone

 

2012-01-18_1536 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

They did it again in the overnight session - moved the market north. I am just too old to work the midnight shift again. I envy you currency traders in the Euro/British zone. You have got it made for trading these. A daytime job!!!

It is hard to get a totally correct wave count with the Asian drift sideways and patterns get pulled out of shape. Patterns get elongated - sideways - as what appears for the "D" wave shown on the 15 min chart. Couple interesting things about this count is that the final wave in the ending diagonal the way I count them is .618 times the "A" wave, a normal relationship. We still may pop higher a bit from here with an irregular start to a retrace wave. I feel that we have now completed a zig zag structure to the 1.2908 high. Is this all she wrote for the retrace move up OR do we now do a ranging sideways dance into a new high into next week? Time will tell.

 

15 min 2012-01-19_0547 - slick60's library

 

slick

On my chart I erred and put .518 instead of .618 at the "E" wave high. I have been trying to correct that snap and not able to using "Jing" - techsmith.com is obviously doing a blackout in protest of upcoming legislation re: the use of the internet. WE SOMEHOW ALL HAVE TO PROTEST SUCH A MOVE by the governments of the U.S.A and Canada where I live.

Edited January 19, 2012 by slick60
additional info/correction

[slick60 10]

Amazing - techsmith.com blacking out has screwed up my computer to where I cannot trust making a trade. I have been trying since my last post to take a snap of my chart which does not appear with "jing". Not able to use my screengrab program while jing is functioning/not functioning!!!!!!!!!!!! I closed this program and took the 15 min snap attached HOPEFULLY

As I edit in here we have hit the 1.2817 level I was looking for and now.......................

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Another chart in line form with perhaps a completing count of this wave structure. Hard to know exactly where to measure an ending wave when you have a number of lows in the last wave to measure from. We are at a fib confluence area and resting/stalling or whatever at present. I should not be the one to call it done BUT is this the HOD?

 

slick

[slick60 10]

I gotta post this chart - it blows my mind. I have just read over the weekend how to project a price move in a way that I was not used to. Look at the levels of retrace in this move up this morning as we closed in on the HOD so far. If this does not impress and maybe get a thank you I really don't know what will. I will post in a bit where I expect this market to retrace.

 

slick

[Poocher 10]

Thanks! The levels look great.

[slick60 10]

If we have finally made our high of the day here are some preliminary levels to watch if the market move south.

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Okay. If we have had enough fun on the upside then we should look to the downside. I now have a .618 retrace in the 1.2737 level where this market normally retraces to for the pattern that was laid out on the way up..

 

slick

Edited January 19, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

Trying to use Jing again. Hope this works.

Here is a chart showing how I have started to follow EW moves in the market. It is really neat to me. I find the wave count and go 1-2 and put a box around it. Then if I get another series I do the same and change the color. As the 5th wave concludes in each series I then make my colored boxes thick lined and start to look for retraces or follow through on the previous color.

I also played around with a channel this morning shown on this chart from the red 1-2 low down to the current 1.2623 low and drew a parallel on the supply side.

We are in a 4th wave retrace of the red color at present. Today's high I feel has completed the first leg of a possible double zig zag. Time will tell. If it progress as suspected I will be able to better make a price projection high after the 2nd leg of this formation is complete. Also since we are in a 4th wave of the 1st degree coming down it would be normal for price to burst through the upside of the upper channel line.

 

2012-01-19_1016 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Looking at the market profile chart I feel we have a weak structure in the euro session that needs some filling on the downside. I point out a little bench that will normally get filled at the 1.2858 level. I feel immediate targets on the south side may be the previous value area low at 1.2871, the bench and then a test of the overnight lows. We shall see.

 

2012-01-19_1036 - slick60's library

 

happy sailing folks

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Been sidetracked. Looks to me like we may have completed a 3 wave pattern down into this morning low in the 1.2875 area. Now to see where the re-test takes it. With everyone now knowing the market is going north it may come back and look at the morning high again before completing the 2nd leg of correction. The market makers probably have not got enough for their greedy BIG pockets to run it straight south at this time so we have to wait and be careful. Bet your butt they will get paid with your dollars.

Be careful.

 

slick

 

here is a snap of the daily EW pattern filled in from couple post back

 

http://screencast.com/t/RFXLqhVgy

[slick60 10]

It appears that they are taking a run at the Yen today. EURJPY and USDJPY both very strong in relation to the EURUSD

 

2012-01-19_1114 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Maybe not the right thread for this but I wish someone wiser and smarter than me would alert me as to where to find this kind of information before hand. What does one look at? Checking the Yen charts today it is obvious the yen is being run today. Here is a story I just found.

 

Euro-yen intervention an option for Japan, but not now | Reuters

 

slick

 

man there were such opportunities in the market this morning with this information

Not fair when central banks get into the fray

Edited January 19, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

Man, don't mess with Central Banks.

How did the Delta cycles know that this move was coming a week ago? Beats me - lol

Using the Quarters Theory a strong move will usually take three trading to complete a transition from one Large Quarter to another. The last LQ being 1.2750 and the next one being 1.3000. 1.3008 is a 4th wave of equal length will come in at 1.3008 thus a target for at least slowing down. The wave count and the delta cycles can be looked at to complete at or very near that level. LQ's are shown on the accompanying chart in turquoise. A LQ may be deemed to have been filled if price trades within 25 pips of the LQ it is trying to get to.

 

2012-01-19_1203 - slick60's library

Time for this market to take a rest - after lunch here for goodness sakes

 

slick

Edited January 19, 2012 by slick60
additional info

[slick60 10]

This chart may be a little bit premature and maybe a lot of wishful thinking - but my earlier scenario is still in play. Will have to wait and watch it play out.

 

2012-01-19_1223 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

WOW! This has been a wild ride today. Almost feels like one of those blow offs doesn't it? Looking at the 4 hr chart I am now able to see [looking at smaller time frames also] a double zig zag about complete. Could this be all in one day? A target area right now may be the quarter point at 1.2950. I have a 1.2951 .618 projection of price on one of my blue 15 min charts like I showed earlier. I need to be very cautious trying to chase the market up at this level and in the least should have very tight stops on any long profits that I may have accumulated. One has to ask the question - who has been selling all the way coming up? If professional money is only seen in the market someone still sold. There is not enough retail traders in my mind to have taken the wrong side all the way up so somebody with deep pockets was selling. If I am wrong - please someone enlighten me.

Here we have a 4 hr chart with my short term cycle points on it. We are in the area of where the 7 high point has come in during the past. The move up was so strong that the 5 and 6 are about run together without a break. This is not self-serving. It is a fact of market strength from time to time. When moves happen like this I begin to doubt myself that I have the points on the right side some times.

Be very careful and not too giddy up here if you are long.

 

slick

 

trouble with the techsmith.com site again

[slick60 10]

Thanks! The levels look great.

 

You are welcome. Going along pretty good so far. Thank you for the response.

slick

Edited January 19, 2012 by slick60

[McKeen 10]

Hey Slick!

 

I just wanted to tell you that I am following your thread - but I am a silent lurker...

I'm sure others do as well.

 

Thanks for your contribution, you seem very skilled and have a very nice approach.

 

[slick60 10]

Hey Slick!

 

I just wanted to tell you that I am following your thread - but I am a silent lurker...

I'm sure others do as well.

 

Thanks for your contribution, you seem very skilled and have a very nice approach.

 

 

Thanks McKeen, nice to see someone respond at 10 o'clock at night. Nothing good on TV eh?

 

slick

[McKeen 10]

Thanks McKeen, nice to see someone respond at 10 o'clock at night. Nothing good on TV eh?

 

slick

 

You know you can´t win a war against a woman and those reality shows are a no-no...

[slick60 10]

You know you can´t win a war against a woman and those reality shows are a no-no...

 

Yeah man, nothing but crap. Treat her nice and she-ll keep cooking for you. LOL and ladies please this is not chauvinism as my lady of 47 years will attest - just trying to make people smile

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Got me wondering with the strength - who is selling?

Hourly chart with a bunch of lines - fib confluence shown. Wave pattern will count out.

This chart shows bunch of quarter lines on it.

 

2012-01-19_1715 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

3:40am the market is moving fast. Looking like the move up may be at rest. Trying to get a handle on it but the retrace down is deeper than what I would expect for continuation. Within the Quarters theory the large quarter at 1.3000 will be deemed to have been filled since we traded within 25 pips of that number at the high. Will try and post a chart within the hour.

 

slick

We have a 2nd wave at the midpoint of 1.2875 where a move down may come to rest while it decides where it is going from there.

 

15 min http://screencast.com/t/gPuhCbA7QooP

Edited January 20, 2012 by slick60