EURUSD Et Al Trading

[slick60 10]

I am new to these forums and cannot find a thread dealing with following the euro in forex in a trading way.

I would like to share some ideas and charts with this topic. I have a background like a lot of you here of being a simple retail trader in search of that ever elusive win win win ratio that never looks back. I know at this point in my trading career that it only takes money - and I know this will get the hoots and hollers from a number of participants in these forums. However to those who profess to manage large sums of somebody else' money I would be interested to know at what percentage your employer expects you to achieve and start rewarding you with performance bonuses.

Watching fiber at the moment I see it is taking away all of my thunder. I cannot type fast enough or make charts to post quick enough for this move.

A delta low is due today in my solution so weakness is expected. (Not much credibility to say that after the fact-shit-should have done this last night). It may or may not take out the 1.2666 low of a few days ago. I had (and now gone) a naked poc on my market profile chart that I wanted to point out as a potential target in this move. I will post this chart right now.

 

click on url http://screencast.com/t/60fChmnc

 

slick

[slick60 10]

In this thread I will show charts of how I follow the market from what I have learned over the years. Contrary to popular belief Elliott Wave does in fact work. I know a ton of you will say that it is merely subjective and that 10 EW guys in a room looking at a chart will probably give you 10 different counts. That is probably true BUT did you ever stop to think that maybe perhaps one of those guys is right and the naysayers are the other 9?

The Elliott Wave Theorist with my EW hero Robert Prechter was really good at one time and now like so many people/businesses out there hires people to do the work whom I really think come from the other 9. Too bad, it is all about the money and getting those subscriptions out there. Call it one way forever and YES INDEED you eventually will be right and jump on that opportunity to get on CNBC or whatever to blow your horn and sell your wares. Damn I wish there were just some good honest people out there to look up to.

As you read this post please do not think that this is a thread about Elliott Wave. I think maybe my posts are too long and challenge the attention of a lot of traders who really just want to get on with it. Like wham bam, thank you mam and where is this market going.

I am not 100% happy with this count but it certainly is a possible. We still have several hundred pips to go south before this move is over. EW does keep extending and morphing into different patterns but there comes a point when you can discard everything that breaks the rules and then you are left with the truth.

 

click on url 2012-01-11_0748 - slick60's library

 

slick

time consuming writing these posts

P.S. to thems that wants to know - look for an intermediate to longer term low due near the end of March this year.

[slick60 10]

A potential wave complete of an a-b-c flat 4th wave correction. I have a possible short intermediate term delta due in this low time frame. Now a quickie retrace to a possible higher high and then down to a lower low that 1.2666.

Needs to get done quickly

http://screencast.com/t/m3vs4a1b2fy8

 

slick

 

Possibility here is an extended 1st wave complete with 2 more impulse waves to follow. This move down in my opinion not on really big volume

Edited January 11, 2012 by slick60
additional info

[slick60 10]

Man, just killed my page

If they dump on this pair in the U.S. session they may bring it down to the channel shown on this chart

 

2012-01-11_0917 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Here is a daily chart showing Delta points. The Intermediate cycle is in blue; the Medium term cycle is in red and there is a Medium long term cycle showing in black.

You can see where these points are "due" as I refer to them in other posts. Each cycle carries significant weight. The current channel in blue that I am showing is derived from an elliott wave count. The gray, yellow and turquoise horizontal lines are quarter point lines - information about them may be garnered from reading and studying the book shown on the chart, if you are not familiar with it yet. I have also noted what price action has been in the recent past on and after FOMC days.

There is a lot of information on this chart and shows what I am seeing together with an ongoing analysis of VSA and using market profile charts.

This may or may not be of interest to anyone who may choose to read this thread.

 

2012-01-11_1305 - slick60's library

slick

 

PS - for those interested how my charts are shown, I make them using Jing from Tech Smith - a free application. Google it. I think it is neat

[slick60 10]

Jan 11, 2012. The move down from the Tuesday high 1.2792 appears to be in 3 waves. Todays move lower gave me some confirmation that in fact yesterday afternoon we were going through a period of distribution. I did manage to grab a short at 4:21am this morning at the 1.2779 level.

To me that is still a portion of a corrective move down to 1.2761 today, a slightly lower low that I was looking for. Moving back to the 1.2841 level now would complete a possible 4th wave and allow for another move lower. This has been a very hard wave structure to label with the economic climate that we are in within the EC. Time has basically run out on the downside and we should be moving north very soon. Where we are in the time cycles it would not be surprising to me to see this wave count morph into something other than a straight impulse structure down as shown in charts I am posting at present.

Be ready for surprises on the upside!

 

2012-01-11_1855 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Here we are Thursday morning waiting for the EC press conference to tell us that they are not going to do anything substantial with rates in the near term. This should bode well for the market showing some kind of stability? Really? It will merely be an opportunity for the market makers to take advantage of the good news I feel. Watch out should the market spike north at the news around the 8:30am EST mark.

Today we have the sluggish start continuing that I felt was coming yesterday. My first target on the upside will be the 1.2841 level for a retrace and monitor at that time. 1.2858 is a level of S & R to see what price action does if it gets there. Should we blow through that then we are into a decent retrace at this time.

Below is a snap of some action as I see it from one of my monitors.

 

http://screencast.com/t/UYpEiFe8Z

The look above arrow should be pointing to the "G" period high of 3:45am

Good trading folks

slick

Edited January 12, 2012 by slick60
"Look above" is "G" period high

[slick60 10]

Jan 12 move north looks decent. Comes into line with what I was looking for. We now have a potential 4th wave pattern complete and can project from here where a 5th wave move may go should we go south at this time.

One must always be aware the pattern can change into something else - hahaha I hear in the background - just happens to be a fact of life and not trying to cover my ass.

 

2012-01-12_1024 - slick60's library

 

http://screencast.com/t/9yyM0DOHXY

 

slick

Edited January 12, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

Here is a snap taken a short bit ago and I just labelled now to show how in market profile when a bench builds it will generally fill in as this one has since this snap. Probably been shown on other market profile threads in here I imagine.

 

2012-01-12_1206 - slick60's library

 

http://screencast.com/t/qdqzbc8tM9Js

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Just out of bed 4:50am and find that euro has extended corrective move in the "C" leg retrace to the 1.382 level at 1.2878. The 1 hour chart shows the wave count quite well and now that high syncs up with a delta point due at this time. I feel we should now be moving south to a level of 1.2493 to 1.2640 to complete the 5th leg in the magenta series as shown on the daily chart.

 

2012-01-13_0509 - slick60's library

 

2012-01-13_0513 - slick60's library

 

http://screencast.com/t/KgdJKXZm

 

Watch and wait for the next surprise in this pair.

 

slick

Edited January 13, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

8:55am and moving along nicely. Sure would like to have stayed up at 2:15am today when I woke up. It would have been a look at the chart and click "sell market" on the 2:30am 15 min bar close. It was a .786 to the pip retrace and a Steve Mauro "M" signal. Hard for me to get up and trade the European - London open where the best action takes place. Me being in the E.S.T. zone.

In any event I am now looking for a low to come in "due" at 9am on the 4 hr bar Monday morning. BUT it can come earlier with the sucker punch Sunday open or perhaps a bit later. These cycles as are all cycles NOT ETCHED IN STONE. However they are one great guide for me and generally will put me on the right side of the market. As I type I am watching this baby fall south. The 4 hr chart I am posting shows you what my thoughts and expectations are right now. Larger Delta points are due on the upside for me and we are running out of time to complete this leg down. Levels of retrace are shown and my preference is the .618 at 1.2644 mainly because of the time factor.

I would like to see other ideas, examples, comments so that I do not feel all alone out here in this world.

 

2012-01-13_0855 - slick60's library 4 hr chart

 

slick

 

We are now in the area where in the past this delta 4 point has come in. A "V" bottom could come in unexpectedly today. Beware of a deep sudden reversal with conviction

Edited January 13, 2012 by slick60
4 point low

[slick60 10]

9:50 am and the action has been great. Here is a 15 minute chart with a wave count on it and some possible projections. We are at this time in a consolidation period I feel also known right now as a 4th wave in the 3rd wave structure down from the 1.2878 high. We should start to see some positive divergence building on macd as shown in this chart when the low of green wave 3 comes in. I think a 1.272 extension of the 1st wave down coming in around the old low of 1.2661 may be in order for that low. Then we will waste away in another 4th wave for the (4) and remembering that this is "Friday" and we might want to take profits with the weekend upon us. So in market profile for today I expect to see the typical "b" pattern of long liquidation taking place.

The scenario to me looks good for the low to come in Sunday night - Tuesday early so we can get on with the sizeable retrace north.

In my work this is really starting to look like a repeat of cycles that took place at the 1.1876 low back in 2010.

 

2012-01-13_0946 - slick60's library 15 minute chart

 

Happy trading folks

 

slick

The reason why I started this post-trying to find a low for our present move down. Often times I have found that the midpoint of the third wave down will become the midpoint of the whole wave down - "ROUGHLY" - be nice if it was exact - so using this approach 2598 area looks doable to me. So that comes in using fibs around 1.2581 to 1.2608. Let's see what happens.

Edited January 13, 2012 by slick60
Just cannot get all my thoughts together at once

[slick60 10]

Working on the magenta box count at present. Fib target levels shown. There is a nice confluence of the initial 1st wave down in this series at the .886 level of 1.2537 shown here.

Coming in next week as a low will bring a weekly time and price squaring of .786 at 1.2532 from the 2010 low of 1.1876. I will show this in a weekly chart. Could it really get this good?

 

2012-01-13_1046 - slick60's library Daily chart

 

2012-01-13_0802 - slick60's library Weekly chart

 

Have a good weekend folks

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I keep forgetting to remind myself and you how important quarter points are in the currencies. Here is a chart of today's action showing same. The horizontal blue dotted lines are quarter points.

 

2012-01-13_1102 - slick60's library

15 minute chart

 

slick

 

Here is a Market Profile chart showing a large Initial Balance and generally what that means. Also a good low with an 18 pip responsive buying tail.

 

http://screencast.com/t/lPf2FFe8zku

Edited January 13, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

I started this thread with an et al attached to the eurusd. Here is a snap of a weekly GBPUSD [cable] pair. It too has some direction

 

2012-01-13_1244 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

As usual studying the charts on the weekend. Too old to get a life now - ha ha.

I do want to post some charts with what I was looking at this morning trying to find a reasonable target for this euro to come to rest at and reverse. Crystal balling it which no one can do.

Using several different means for projections I keep coming up with a level of 1.2585-87. On the 15 minute chart I show a wave count that I am following at present. On the chart I show projections based on the wave count from the 1 hr chart which look interesting to me. Also that I have a delta low due during the 9:00am 4 hr bar on Monday fits in nicely. The Monday holiday in the U.S. - how will affect trade? - not sure. I know that a turn is due and we are very close. There is a mundane MACD shown at the bottom of the 15 min chart which shows the deepest bar in the histogram came in at the Friday low. To me that said continuation, this market is not done to the downside. I do look for a lower low from here and the macd will probably show a positive divergence at that low for a reversal. My humble opinion. Below is a 15 minute chart showing ongoing EW count.

 

15 min 2012-01-15_1400 - slick60's library

4 hour 2012-01-15_1413 - slick60's library

I keep forgetting everything I wished to share a lot. Not good. Here is also a 15 min chart in line form showing the wave count. Sometimes it helps to see it in this form.

http://screencast.com/t/Ajavp5Fv0FvB

 

slick60

Edited January 15, 2012 by slick60
add chart

[slick60 10]

Forex trading is a tough business with all the odds in the world stacked against you. Here is a snap of a bit of our competition.

 

2012-01-13_1625 - slick60's library

 

 

These are the people who have your playbook in front of them

 

slick

[slick60 10]

Often times I find after a big washout such as we had on Friday the 13th my 4 hour cycle points may come in early. Throw a holiday into the mix and now we have disarray. We can find a 5 wave count on the hourly chart into this morning low at the double bottom. I don't like it but one has to take what the market gives. Is this Magenta wave 5 low as depicted on the daily chart? There is a good chance that it is-nothing etched in stone. Uneasy at a turning point that is how we are supposed to feel. The markets are designed that way by thems thats got the money. With the longer term delta cycles that I posted earlier we are fast running out of time for this move to complete. Failing to take this low out quickly I will have to consider the retrace underway for a wave (4) at this time.

 

hourly 2012-01-16_1402 - slick60's library

daily 2012-01-16_1423 - slick60's library

 

I will wait for a confirmation of some sort before taking a long at this time. Possible retrace levels for a (4)th wave are shown on the daily chart.

 

slick

[slick60 10]

It appears to me now that we are in the final 4th wave retrace of this move down that started at 1.4247. The 2nd wave retrace was a complex flat 3 wave correction in my view, thus we should now see a zig-zag or a triangle for the 4th wave. Triangles are fairly rare so I am opting for a bit deeper z z making a double zz shape. We have already started with a complex piece of this correction which should take up until approximately Jan 27. News items etc creating opportunity to move the market lower may arise before that time so one must be prepared for them. I am at this time looking for a low to complete sometime into March and will assess at that time.

Once I can identify the first of the 3 waves in this retrace I will be able to get a possible price projection at that time.

 

Good trading folks

 

slick

see charts previous post

[slick60 10]

They always do this to me when I am asleep. Costs the market makers much less money to make their move during the Asian session when volumes are less and that they did one more time at 9:00pm EST Jan 16/12. They will trap traders in the wrong direction with their fast move and dangle the carrot out in front of those traders whom they want to move the market to where the MM's want it to go. I have a couple charts showing the 9 pm push/volume increase in the 6E futures contract and how the market profile looked at that stage with several sessions merged into a ranging balance area.

 

15 min 2012-01-17_0504 - slick60's library

market profile 2012-01-17_0512 - slick60's library

 

Up up and away and where they stop no one knows...................really

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

I have mentioned before and posted in one chart the name of a book that I feel is very pertinent to the forex currency markets. It is the Quarters Theory which some of you may already be familiar with. I find it helpful for possible levels of support and resistance and levels for price targets and stop placement. This 1 hour chart will show how the 1.2800 level put the brakes on this move for a rest. 1.2800 is the first whole number above a Large Quarter which is at 1.2750 and is viewed with some importance.

 

1 hr chart 2012-01-17_0550 - slick60's library

the book 2012-01-17_0547 - slick60's library

 

The book is available as a PDF on the net

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Further to the previous post here is a 15 min futures chart showing a big volume spike into the high with a lot of selling. This is a sign of weakness and also the futures got to a 20 pip premium on this drive up. The normal lately has been about 5 pip premium to the March contract. Do you suppose the same players offset their bets in forex using the futures market?

With this push it may be the start of the market maker pattern - the "M". It may be the high of the day and we will soon head the opposite way to later consolidate.

 

15 min futures 2012-01-17_0621 - slick60's library

 

slick

 

For those who may not be aware the spike high shown is one of those opportunities that the market makers take to grab your money. 5:00 am news was great, much better economic sentiment seen for the EC than what was forecast. As everyone rushed in to grab a piece of the action long the MM said thank you for your money as he accommodated them with the sell side and and a bit more.

Edited January 17, 2012 by slick60

[slick60 10]

There are too many weak longs, tag-a-longs I call them, going for the ride. They are viewed as obstacles who will sell early as the market maker takes this move north. As they sell he will have to absorb. That costs money so the tag-a-longs must be removed. A move back to the 1.2720-25 level should do that and then we can continue north.

My short term cycle point high is not due until 9:00 pm this evening. I do not feel this high this morning is that high. It may very well be late in an up move.

 

slick

[slick60 10]

I follow the market in various ways and also use short term indicators to hone in on entries for trades. Below is a before [ left ] and after shot [ right ] of how I follow in short time with some so called lagging indicators. To me I interpret the lagging indicators as to what money has been doing in the past thus signalling entries are near as shown on the chart. There are many ways to track the market. Find something that works for you and get some money.

 

2012-01-17_0939 - slick60's library

 

slick

[slick60 10]

At this time coming into the London close I suspect we will have a retrace of the last quickie move down and eventually take out the high of the day by this evening. I am looking for an irregular flat a-b-c which will take us to the area of 1.2823 where there is some fibonacci confluence. From that point we will have a deeper retrace than the .618 already hit to perhaps the 1.2664-95 areas as shown on the hourly chart. I believe we have a 3 wave structure up to this morning's high and it is the first part of a more complex zig-zag I feel that will form over the next week plus.

 

2012-01-17_1109 - slick60's library

 

slick60