The Market is Dead

[tradingadvantagetm 10]

The market is dead. Continuing with last week’s theme – there was no volume, no volatility, and no “action” of any kind. If the market isn’t dead, it sure is in a very deep slumber. The range has been so tight for so long that when it does wake up, or come back to life, it should do so with a bang.

 

Speaking of today’s lack of action, Reuters said the following… NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks ended slightly higher on Monday in a light-volume session as investors stayed cautious ahead of corporate earnings and key auctions for European debt this week.

After breaking out of the gate with strong gains on the first day of trading in January, stocks have been confined to a tight range in daily moves and volume has been low. The S&P 500 faces strong technical resistance as it has been unable to pierce through 1,285, the closing high set in late October.

 

Months of summits and meetings have still not convinced investors that Europe will avoid messy defaults or a break-up of the euro zone.

"That is what the market wants to get a look at - what is it that these multinationals are seeing in the global environment that gives them pause, or is the tone going to be a little better than expected," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Debt sales by Spain and Italy later in the week should provide insight about investors' confidence in plans to solve the euro zone financial crisis.

 

"There is this sense that we really need to see something that is going to convince us that this EU challenge ... is a headwind that can be managed," Kenny said.

After meeting in Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned Greece it will get no more bailout funds until it agrees with creditor banks on a bond swap and a deal to avert a potential default.

Perhaps the market will find whatever it is looking for that will provide a spark to the market on Tuesday?

 

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

 

Larry Levin

[TheDude 10]

Yes - I thought it was a bummer last week. I made a few losing trades expecting the volatility to come back, then I stopped for a few days thinking we were seeing a non trend day.

 

Of course, a dude doesnt hang round on the side lines for long. A dude adapts.

 

I've quadrupled my clip size and looking to scalp a point or 3 ticks here and there.

Using MD Trader with the Volume At Price display turned on has made it a whole lot easier. In fact, I'm quite enjoying this market.

 

Sods law I will be trading 4x when the vol comes back and I'll lose the farm.....:doh:

 

A whole load of numbers are out tomorrow so this could be the last of it - unless everyone is still on holls until MLK holiday is over this Monday....

[ruffcut 10]

I think they are telling HFT to chill out and let the markets start to breath slowly. A loss of confidence in the market from investors is very costly to the ponzi campaign.

[chcculle 10]

the market fluctuates between two states... range expansion and range contraction. We have been trading in a range but we will not stay there. We will break one way or the other. Which ever way we break, we would expect some continuation. Your best bet during a period like this is to keep in mind that this is not permanent. Better trading days are ahead and you are best to wait for better opportunities unless you're a fan of trading in a range.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I've heard people suggesting that the market is dead and volatility is gonna drop for a while. Give it a damn chance is what I say!! ES for example has only really slowed down over the xmas period. Even if it did stay like this for a while, it's not as if it's been untradable.

[xkr1962 10]

Plenty of trend trades using support and resistance about on the currencies. It is a fallacy that the markets are untradeable in the holiday periods.

 

Trends work on all timeframes therefore what looks like a sideways market on h4 h1 etc in fact has loads of tradeable opps on m5.

 

Happy trading in 2012 folks

[Tams 20]

The market is dead. Continuing with last week’s theme – there was no volume, no volatility, and no “action” of any kind. If the market isn’t dead, it sure is in a very deep slumber. The range has been so tight for so long that when it does wake up, or come back to life, it should do so with a bang.

 

Speaking of today’s lack of action, Reuters said the following… NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks ended slightly higher on Monday in a light-volume session as investors stayed cautious ahead of corporate earnings and key auctions for European debt this week.

After breaking out of the gate with strong gains on the first day of trading in January, stocks have been confined to a tight range in daily moves and volume has been low. The S&P 500 faces strong technical resistance as it has been unable to pierce through 1,285, the closing high set in late October.

 

Months of summits and meetings have still not convinced investors that Europe will avoid messy defaults or a break-up of the euro zone.

"That is what the market wants to get a look at - what is it that these multinationals are seeing in the global environment that gives them pause, or is the tone going to be a little better than expected," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Debt sales by Spain and Italy later in the week should provide insight about investors' confidence in plans to solve the euro zone financial crisis.

 

"There is this sense that we really need to see something that is going to convince us that this EU challenge ... is a headwind that can be managed," Kenny said.

After meeting in Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned Greece it will get no more bailout funds until it agrees with creditor banks on a bond swap and a deal to avert a potential default.

Perhaps the market will find whatever it is looking for that will provide a spark to the market on Tuesday?

 

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

 

Larry Levin

 

this guy is spamming forums with this same message all over the internet.

he probably hired a marketing kid to post the messages; I don't think he knows what he is talking about. He just want to divert traffic to his website.

[Deusomega 10]

Listen to the guy people... don't follow the so called experts aka HIM...

[wrbtrader 10]

this guy is spamming forums with this same message all over the internet.

he probably hired a marketing kid to post the messages; I don't think he knows what he is talking about. He just want to divert traffic to his website.

 

I thought he was "re-quoting" something from Reuters.

 

Also, I've seen more complaints by retail and institutional traders about the price action the past few weeks than I have all year. In addition, I heard bloomberg, CNBC, other major financial networks and floor traders talk about "unusual low volume" or "unusual low volatility" the past few weeks.

 

You saying its a big lie.

 

In contrast, I did see some good price action today between 4am est - 11am est. Still early in the year...plenty of trading to be done.

Edited January 12, 2012 by wrbtrader

[Logic 10]

The market is dead. Continuing with last week’s theme – there was no volume, no volatility, and no “action” of any kind. If the market isn’t dead, it sure is in a very deep slumber. The range has been so tight for so long that when it does wake up, or come back to life, it should do so with a bang.

 

Speaking of today’s lack of action, Reuters said the following… NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks ended slightly higher on Monday in a light-volume session as investors stayed cautious ahead of corporate earnings and key auctions for European debt this week.

After breaking out of the gate with strong gains on the first day of trading in January, stocks have been confined to a tight range in daily moves and volume has been low. The S&P 500 faces strong technical resistance as it has been unable to pierce through 1,285, the closing high set in late October.

 

Months of summits and meetings have still not convinced investors that Europe will avoid messy defaults or a break-up of the euro zone.

"That is what the market wants to get a look at - what is it that these multinationals are seeing in the global environment that gives them pause, or is the tone going to be a little better than expected," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Debt sales by Spain and Italy later in the week should provide insight about investors' confidence in plans to solve the euro zone financial crisis.

 

"There is this sense that we really need to see something that is going to convince us that this EU challenge ... is a headwind that can be managed," Kenny said.

After meeting in Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned Greece it will get no more bailout funds until it agrees with creditor banks on a bond swap and a deal to avert a potential default.

Perhaps the market will find whatever it is looking for that will provide a spark to the market on Tuesday?

 

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

 

Larry Levin

 

The old saying, "If life serves you lemons, make lemonade" is a phrase that is seemingly lost to most traders. The updated version as it would relate to trading should be, "If the market is too quiet, turn up the volume."

 

If a particular chart (market) slows down (loses liquidity) adjust the chart environment (resolution) to increase the chart speed to compensate for that loss. This is easier when using Constant Volume BarTM charting than tick or time based charts.

 

I trade Crude Oil futures primarily & the Euro FX occasionally, full time and I always prepare for the trading week by looking at what news reports are coming out each day. This week we had light news on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday so I traded accordingly, by speeding up my trading chart by 50% for those days. Today and tomorrow has a steady flow of major news reports so we move back to normal chart speeds.

 

Trading is a business and should be treated that way. Retail knows when their peak times are and when their slow times are. Manufacturing and the service sector is order driven. These industries know how to forecast when their businesses see an increase in volume. Traders need to do the same thing and they can't accurately do that by concentrating on the fundamentals each day. The fundamentals are OK for forecasting and preparing for longer term tops and bottoms but they are all but worthless on giving you any tangible information that a trader can use on an hour by hour basis. Traders need to adjust their trading based on liquidity but should never drastically nor subjectively adjust their rules on a whim.

 

This brings up a couple points regarding your last statement, "Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”. All 3 excellent points . . . taken out of context.

 

Trade well? I would certainly hope that is one of a trader's main goals.

 

Follow the trend? One first must objectively and specifically define it first before one can follow it. It's like "The Force". If Obi-Wan Kenobi didn't tell poor Luke how to find it and use it, those movies would have sucked.

 

Finally, follow the trend, not the so-called experts. Well sir I don't know about you by my whole goal many years ago was to become a successful trader and I do believe a by-product of my success was becoming an expert of my trading environment. So I will damn sure follow what I have discovered that is consistently successful and continuously profitable. I am the expert that counts when I sit in front of my charts each day, the only expert!

 

I've uploaded my Crude chart from today and there was plenty of profit there like every day. We marry our significant other, not our symbols. For god's sake traders if a particular chart is lacking liquidity there are only nearly 1000 others to choose from, pick one. The trades listed on the chart, by the way, are automated. They are not annotated in hind sight.