Why Won't My Strategy Work?!?!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Or is it that you can't make it work? I often see that the focus of posts is on how and why a strategy wins rather than the profitable application of a winning strategy. This may be for a multitude of different reasons which I'll leave to your imagination. But let me ask this question. Is the real key to a trader's success based on their system's potential for profit? If it is, then why is it that the occurrence of traders who fail to make money, jumping from system to system which have been used profitably by other traders past and present, is so frequent and persistent? Logical well thought through strategies of course are a prerequisite, but it is my contention that they are not the defining factor on a trader's road to success.

 

A really important aspect to the success or failure of a strategy is to many what is the 'peripheral' information. How to make a good system work. Most of you will have heard the trading adage or a variation of it that "No system can win all of the time". Think about this for a minute. Why is that? All things equal, couldn't there be a system that wins all of the time? No. All things aren't equal and the trading landscape is constantly changing and undulating. This is also why markets aren't random as some suggest.

 

Here are a few important 'peripheral' factors to the success or failure of your system:-

 

Time

What time of day/week/month are you trading?

 

Economic Events/Releases

Before and after key economic releases, markets can behave very differently which can of course impact your system.

 

Current conditions

Is the market trending or bracketing? Is it moving up or down? How volatile is it? Is it within recent activity or exploring new prices?

 

Phase Location

Where in the current trend or bracket is the market trading? For example, are you attempting to execute a trend strategy in a dwindling trend?

 

Stop Type Selection

What is your stop based on and how big is it? Is it fixed by number of prices, based on s/r levels or volatility based using say a channel or even an ATR method?

 

Market Selection

Which markets are you applying the strategy to? Knowing that different markets have different participant bases, you can more appropriately apply techniques to markets with more beneficial characteristics.

 

To be a profitable trader, you need to step it up and be a pro in the way you approach your work.

[estate1997 10]

[quote name=

A really important aspect to the success or failure of a strategy is to many what is the 'peripheral' information. How to make a good system work. Most of you will have heard the trading adage or a variation of it that "No system can win all of the time". Think about this for a minute. Why is that? All things equal' date=' couldn't there be a system that wins all of the time? No. All things aren't equal and the trading landscape is constantly changing and undulating. This is also why markets aren't random as some suggest.

Phase Location

There are systems that will win all the time. I know of three systems. They are based on momentum bars, Kase bars, and P&F bars. They all use cycles and multiple charts.

The only time they will loose is due to operator error in my case. I know that two are working on full automation but it is complex problem to have a program read the numbers like a human mind.

If markets are so random, why would I send out an email Thurs. at 5:45 PM telling a few friends that good news is coming and give them a new high target price for Friday on the ES which they hit. They, the people in control set these things up way in advance so traders will buy or sell from their tech analysis. Any randomness comes from stop chasing and poor decisions.

An example of their control is price volume divergence. How does price keep going up when everyone is dumping their contracts? The reason as I see it is that they have to hit a certain predetermined price which is set prior to the market turning down.

To see their control in Trade Station, use their Mov Avg Exp Ribbon indicator across several charts of your choosing. They will go through hoops to get things lined up for their next large move.

One more example is what I call a post. "They will run the price up 4 points and rapidly move it back down. That will be a pivot point for trend lines for a down move.

The bottom after a large move always has the same set up with Kase charts.

So to wrap it up. yes there is a Grail and your worst enemy is yourself. You just have to pay attention to what they are telling everyone who knows what they are saying.

We are just mice to the cats in this game.

Good luck

[ckait 10]

pretty bold statement on strategies winning all the time with a statement like that one should back it up with charts and examples.

[stinkystank 10]

There are systems that will win all the time. I know of three systems.

straight balling

 

i totally believe you

[ns6 10]

An example of their control is price volume divergence. How does price keep going up when everyone is dumping their contracts? The reason as I see it is that they have to hit a certain predetermined price which is set prior to the market turning down.

To see their control in Trade Station, use their Mov Avg Exp Ribbon indicator across several charts of your choosing. They will go through hoops to get things lined up for their next large move.

.

.

.

 

The bottom after a large move always has the same set up with Kase charts.

 

 

estate,

 

Can you give some chart examples of the above? Thx.

[Blaiserboy 10]

There are systems that will win all the time. I know of three systems. They are based on momentum bars, Kase bars, and P&F bars. They all use cycles and multiple charts.

The only time they will loose is due to operator error in my case. I know that two are working on full automation but it is complex problem to have a program read the numbers like a human mind.

If markets are so random, why would I send out an email Thurs. at 5:45 PM telling a few friends that good news is coming and give them a new high target price for Friday on the ES which they hit. They, the people in control set these things up way in advance so traders will buy or sell from their tech analysis. Any randomness comes from stop chasing and poor decisions.

An example of their control is price volume divergence. How does price keep going up when everyone is dumping their contracts? The reason as I see it is that they have to hit a certain predetermined price which is set prior to the market turning down.

To see their control in Trade Station, use their Mov Avg Exp Ribbon indicator across several charts of your choosing. They will go through hoops to get things lined up for their next large move.

One more example is what I call a post. "They will run the price up 4 points and rapidly move it back down. That will be a pivot point for trend lines for a down move.

The bottom after a large move always has the same set up with Kase charts.

So to wrap it up. yes there is a Grail and your worst enemy is yourself. You just have to pay attention to what they are telling everyone who knows what they are saying.

We are just mice to the cats in this game.

Good luck

 

Please share some examples, I am sure that many will be pleased to see those.

[SunTrader 10]

............

So to wrap it up. yes there is a Grail .....

:haha:

Yeah sure...........

[Blaiserboy 10]

:haha:

Yeah sure...........

 

I have looked at many things in my 'brief' exposure to trading and I have not seen the grail, I have seen a lot of my own mistakes though...... lol Somehow Mr Market seems to have a plan to defeat anything that resembles a solution.

[McKeen 10]

Great first post Negotiator!

Edited January 8, 2012 by McKeen
I misunderstood something previously posted

[estate1997 10]

Please share some examples, I am sure that many will be pleased to see those.

 

If you look at the above posts I mentioned three people that have found it and we all use different charts. Find the tick feed charts that fit your eye and start to look at the correlations of your oscillator of choice. I tried over 100 of them till I made my own.

15 months from the time I made my own to get here and another 4 months and it should be automated. Nothing in life is free.

Expect many false paths but back up and head in another direction.

Defeat is found within yourself and listening to skeptics.

One last thing, be like Smith Barney and earn it.

[estate1997 10]

estate,

 

Can you give some chart examples of the above? Thx.

I would if I could but they are sitting on a loose hard drive in my closet so I have no available screen shots.

Here is another occurrence, a Square of Nines indicator will plot the top real time on the Kase 1.25 chart. It will lead the top on the Kase 1.0 chart.

All my post refer to to the ES.

[joshdance 10]

What a way to ruin a perfectly good thread started by Negotiator by such BS. Thanks anyway N, for trying.

[pipsmasterone 10]

I am a firm believer that in order for an approach to work. you absolutely must design it to compliment your personality otherwise you will always be in an internal conflict with yourself,

Easier said than done - Its a process that can take years.

Is it possible to win on most trades? yes its possible, even with respectable profit to loss ratios. Think of the market as of a jungle where each and every living thing is trying to survive and thrive in the environment. Through perseverance, experience(luck of not being eaten first- lol) and through keen observation one can develop an edge (unfair advantage) over others. Just like in nature - in the markets(which is nature after all) no edge stays an edge forever, its all part of an evolutionary process. There you are, I said too much already, I am cutting my own branch that I am sitting on.

[SunTrader 10]

....Is it possible to win on most trades? yes its possible, even with respectable profit to loss ratios....

True but does a wise trader spend time looking for what is possible or what is probable.

[MightyMouse 12]

True but does a wise trader spend time looking for what is possible or what is probable.

 

I would suggest that a wise trader ought to spend time looking for what is possible since anything is probable.

[SunTrader 10]

I would suggest that a wise trader ought to spend time looking for what is possible since anything is probable.

As "they" say, that is what makes a market - a difference of opinion.

 

The sun might not rise the following day - a possiblility. Especially if you listen to the naysaysers regarding Dec 21, 2012. who btw misinterpret what that date truly means. But is it a real probability?

 

For inventors possibilities are a focus, to find something new. IMHO markets only have OHLC/Volume and futures open interest so no matter how you slice and dice it probabilities are the key - at least when it comes to actually making a living or better.

[bestforexpartners 10]

Always remember that the forex market comprises several exchanges; hence, always keeps this in your mind before creating a forex trading system routine as, here there are lots of differences between the forex market and other markets. Also, if you are new to the forex market and has been trading only in the stock market, you may not be wishing to get caught through any mistakes.

[Obsidian 10]

Strategies fail:

Because they are not good. The most common reason which makes them fail is they can't adapt to the change in market behavior. If you test your strategy for only trending markets, it is obvious that you will fail when you trade in a ranging market

 

Because trader does not have the necessary knowledge or personality. Everybody can be a trader but being successful trader is totally different. If you don't have the nerves to trade your strategy, you will fail even if strategy works

 

Because you don't choose the right strategy. Knowing and applying that knowledge on the field are 2 different things. If your patience only allows you to scalp, then you will lose when you choose a strategy that works on larger time frames

 

Because you are dreaming to be rich without learning how to trade

[henryduncan12 10]

I think, Every traders should ask this question by themselves and try to find out solution for it. It will help them to avoid loss and make some profit during trading.