Market Energy: 2012 Trading Journal

[SpecTrade 10]

Both GBPJPY and USDJPY look good to short.

[SpecTrade 10]

CAD long @9950 stopped at BE+7

 

GBPJPY short @ 125.59 stopped -62pips, short@126.68 stopped +26 pips

Short@ 125.46 was interesting: as soon as the trade went on I've realized I'm wrong, this time the breakout might be real, so I manually closed trade at BE, and went long @126.27 with SL125.31, triple the normal position size, closed +202 pips.

 

USDJPY similar situation, 1st short @79.88 stopped out -51pips, 2nd short@80.14 closed @ BE.

[SpecTrade 10]

After backtesting, I came to conclusion. I am changing the fractional % risk to fixed dollar amount risk following the simple formula:

fixed dollar amount risk / SL pips / pip value.

 

I will use it grading the trades into: high risk - low dollars amount, medium risk - medium dollar amount, low risk - high dollar amount.

 

The dollar amount is discretionary and it should be proportional to the size of account, meaning: use a fraction of an account larger than 10%.

Edited February 28, 2012 by SpecTrade
explanation

[SpecTrade 10]

EUR short@ 1.3389 SL 1.3570, 1.3516 - touch trade high risk

 

AUD long order@1.0788 SL:1.0627

 

USDCAD short order@1.0006 SL:1.0055 - but probably will cancel it if it moves down the amount of pips x2 risked without a retrace.

[SpecTrade 10]

GBPUSD short on pin bar @1.5940 & 1.5888 - delay of my updates - trades from march 3rd. I was too greedy to take RR1:2 profit on the 1st trade, now it seems to be going back.

Also, if GBP froms a pin bar today I will place long trade orders.

[SpecTrade 10]

I cannot find time to get all up to date on my journal here. I'm during the renovation of my apartment before my 1st kid arrives to this world. The tiles' work should be done in 1 week, or so they told me, now it has been over a month and it's still a mess. Then there will be carpenters. What a mess and dust at home!

I still put trades, but just not that many, since I need peace and quiet. I could go to a coffee shop, but every time I leave the workers they make some mistake.

 

When I finally have time, I will update all my trades that were opened during that time.

I am in DD now, but no fear, I'm coming out of it. Strategy wasn't the problem. the problem was that I traded a completely new idea with real money on 4 pairs. Yeah, but that's me: after I started trading life I have no patience to forward test a new strategy.

 

Good trading!

[SpecTrade 10]

It's been thaaat long???

 

Ok, so just short update. Mostly losses, but recently I recovered half.

Below are just entries without SL values attached, sorry just too much writing.

I know to most of the readers this is meaningless. But again, this journal is merely a documentation of my own trades. I post all of these below, as I try to stay objective, and especially during this time there were many very bad trades.

 

DAILY TF TRADES:

EUR SHORT@3389 +54

GJ SHORT@126.68 +26

UJ SHORT@7988 -51

UJ SHORT 8014 B/E

GJ SHORT 125.46 B/E

GJ LONG@126.27 +202

CAD SHORT1.0006 B/E

AUD LONG 1.0788 -12

GU SHORT 5940 +157

GU SHORT 5888 +155

 

BREAKOT TRADES (intraday):

EUR -43 x 2 (x2 means long and short)

GU -42 + 5

CAD 0, +26

UJ -41

 

DAILY CONT.

GU LONG 5831 -60

GJ LONG 128.96 -90

 

BREAKOU TRADES:

UJ -46, +67

CAD -34, -29, -18

GU +23, -24, -23

EUR -46, +4, +11, +1

 

DAILY CONT:

GJ LONG 129.70 +11

GU LONG 5703 -23

CAD SHORT 9897 -37

GU SHORT 5630 -120

 

BREAKOUT TRADES:

EUR -10, 0, -19, -22, -25, -34

CAD -81

 

DAILY CONT:

CAD SHORT 9909 -3

UJ SHORT 8303 +13

EUR LONG 3166 +28

EUR LONG 3267 -107

EUR SHORT 3169 -110

GJ LONG 132.04 +54

EURGBP SHORT 8313 -25

AUD LONG 0424 +13

EUR LONG 3208 +53

GJ SHORT 130.92 (INTRADAY) +55

CAD SHORT 9965 BE

GJ LONG 131.65 +59

EJ LONG 110.15 -17

EUR LONG 3267 +2

GJ SHORT 131.90 +31

EUR SHORT 3337 +22

EUR SHORT 3354 -17

GJ LONG 131.02 +151

EUR 3304 LONG =BE

AUD LONG 0360 =BE

EJ LONG 109.58 +117

EUR INTRADAY LONG -26 SHORT -11

 

OK, so there it is. I know, it's not at the time of trade, but I rarely have time to post in right after I put the trade. First, because of the renovation going at my place, 2nd - because I rather put the whole picture of the trade with the chart, where I opened, where I closed, how did it feel during the trade, how log was it open, did I get out based on technical analysis or stomach problems (!), how much did I smoke after I put the trade, did I keep watching it intraday or set&forget, etc, etc.

 

At the time of breakout trades I suffered 18.8% DD.

At the end of march DD is less, only -11.9%

 

CHF trade is in. I will include chart and details for that one.

 

Tomorrow and the next day they promised to finish the work, so I can finally relax, only think of finding time to clean, then paint the place in my favorite colors... or now

 

One thing I've observed about myself this time of the DD, is that I just stopped worrying. I was unhappy to see DD, but this time I never blamed myself nor the markets, nor the conditions at my place. It was more along the lines "ok, so it doesn't work, you should have been more careful and backtest it further. next time don't jump into new system with excitement and risk total of +/- 8% of the account. now go back to what you do best: D1".

That's it. Uhmmm.... don't know, but it feels different this time. More like I have a conviction that I will be fine, everything will turn ok.

 

I'm also glad the DD happened while I started posting my journal here. It will be fun to observe my own trades and the recovery process, then growth.

 

It's national holiday here in Taiwan. Nice spring day.

Good trading to all who read.

[SpecTrade 10]

3/23 Buy@ 1.0424, SL:108pips

 

Oanda charts Pin. 120SMA support. Large 50% swing support.

Major PZ, but from prev H is after 50% Reaction.

B/E 3/26. Strong day, feels good.

Price reversed strongly against my trade so I brought SL to safe area making tiny profit. Better safe than sorry.

+14pips, 5 days in.

[SpecTrade 10]

3/26 Short 9965, SL: 92pips. Result: BE. 2 days.

 

Range. After 2 losses Pin occurs at large PPZ which is also 38% retr. of bigger swing down. EMA 275 res. Potential top to bottom of range.

SL to 1.0005 same day. Day's end feels ok. Yet the next day bar that approaches half of OB - so half to BE, other half 1.0005.

SL to 1.0005 later same day. Day's end feels ok.

Yet the next day bar that approaches half of OB - so half to BE, other half 1.0005.

In the end it seems dollar will strenghten, price couldn't even reach previous bottom. Stop to BE protected me from loss. More and more I feel some trades go well from the very beginning or don't work out at all.

[SpecTrade 10]

3/26 long @131.65 SL: 180pips Result: +59pips, 2 days

 

After down from ema 580, trend seems to resume at 50% with both charts Doji. If not take this chance the move might be impossible to catch.

SL to 130 same day. Day's end feels good. Next day Half SL to 131.48 (-17)

Half closed at just +96pips due to opposite Pin forming. Other half closed at Pin stop & reverse

[SpecTrade 10]

3/26 long@ 1.3267 SL: 141pips. Result: BE+2, 3 days

 

After unsuccessful long, then short, I missed Pin off ema 120. Today's event-reaction gave me chance to get back long.

Half SL to 1.3180 same day. Day's end feels good.

Next day half BE

Market went to DGL1 stopping at 707 retr. showing it's bearish tendency. I'm glad I brought stops to BE wihout hoping for higher prices

[SpecTrade 10]

3/26 long@ 110.15 SL: 162pips, Result:-17, 3 days.

 

Good RR, same as GJ, NB. Basically JPY bigger position after losses. EJ looks good standing on weekly 52 ema high and 50% retrece.

SL to 109 same day. Day's end feels good. Next day half BE due to unfavorable PA.

I entered above RN 110, to avoid false move, so the 1st half was closed at BE, 2nd half was closed at loss as I put SL at the exact entry bar's high.

[SpecTrade 10]

3/28 short @ 133.37 SL: 162p, Result: +31, 2 days

 

Trading Range formed at 131.18 PZ, also DGL and 580ema. I had to short it.

After 2 days price is well down, SL=BE

I expect GJ to react down to around 127, this way the butterfly target will be met and good bullish reaction will form...unless it doesn't :]

EOD brought PB forming at levels favoring long, so half closed@131.28, other half stopped at BE.

[SpecTrade 10]

3/30 long@ 131.02 SL: 112p, Result: +151p, 2 days

 

PB developed in a very good area significant market tell to go long. 580ema, RN, 50% retrece, Andrews' Pitchfork, DGL - all lined up.

Entry on half PB. TPO almost hit (by 20 pips), so I bring SL very close to132.52 on Mon. TPO reached on half 151 pips.

Stopped 2nd half, needed to closed it as close to original TPO as possible. Didn't act like trand, more like Trading Range.

[SpecTrade 10]

3/30 long@ 109.58 SL: 91p, Result +117p, 2 days.

 

Uptrend, PZ, 50% retrace, 52ema weekly.

Looks like PB but closed in half, not perfect, but the tail + EUR & GJ also shows long, I entered halfPB long.

Brought stops very close over the weekend.

TPO hit during the Sunday bar (Oanda charts).

Mon afternoon SL 110.50 hit, trade closed in profit. Maybe this trade needed more patience?

Nope, not really, very soon price went straight down.

[SpecTrade 10]

3/30 long @ 1.0360 SL: 68p, Result BE, 4 days

 

Downtrend, but ema275, sma200, RN, PZ.

This was one long awaited trade, and it formed PB at significant support.

I entered on half PB. Fri reaction wasn't good, but stops brought to BE, so I'm srcured.

The trade was stopped at BE. It seems that USD is preparing for takeoff.

[SpecTrade 10]

3/30 long @ 1.3304 SL: 68p, result: BE, 1 day

 

Still Uptrend, PZ, RN.

This was really set-n-forget setup, half Pin from last week.

I though I cancelled this order, it shows up as a surprise on Mon night. I forgot about it, and now EUR doesn't look that interesting.

After analyzing, I didn't close the trade (it was profitable by 20pips), because the setup is still valid. B setup, but it should be garded as C.

Later I felt the whole setup was wrong, so I put SL=BE, and good for me, EUR went down, I was safe.

[SpecTrade 10]

4/3 long @ 9035, SL:40, result: +110, 1 day

 

Downtrend but comes to sma200, RN.

As I was watching the NB, it occurred to me that if the trend doesn't continue down, the possibility of reversal here is rather big. I don't know what news cause it, but at about 2:30am my time, USD went up.

Initially right after entry I was in about -10 pips for a few hours, so it really seems that there was something going on.

For couple of hours now 9148 has been rejected. Close it. Good RR. I'm happy with it.

[SpecTrade 10]

4/6 long@ 1.5877 SL:51p, Result -51p, 1 day

 

Retraced 50%, Uptrend, ema580, ema 275.

Dollar strenghtened, all pais started to fall against it, but not Pound.

Basically, I thought maybe Dollar is just reaction before another fall, so I took this trade.

Good-looking PB in the good area.

I got SL same day, full loss.

[SpecTrade 10]

I was very busy and tired recently. My son was born 2 weeks ago. I will post again soon.

[SpecTrade 10]

It's too much to update during the time of my absence from my journal, but not absence from trading.

Unfortunately I didn't catch the entry for nice downtrend in EUR. Stupid reason: overslept.

I promised myself not to chase price ever, hence I let it go. The setup was off 200sma.

 

Finally, my place is finished and clean. My wife takes care of the baby and lives now at her mother's place. I don't think I'm a good papa, I'm afraid of baby's crying. Need more time and more patience.

 

From now I update every entry, and I will try to do so as timely as possible.

But again, this is my journal not a signal service, so if anyone follows please remember: I do loose, and I let go some large profits if my plan requires this.

 

I will update my first post to make more clear about my trading methods.

[SpecTrade 10]

Long 124.67 SL@ 123.95. Setup: 200sma, abcd. Trigger: Pin Bar Narrow Range (PBNR).

[SpecTrade 10]

short @124.56

SL@125.10.

Not a hedge of previous trade, but a signal in my book:

Setup: 200sma, Trigger: PBNR (PinBarNarrowRange) - actually trading bar formed on Sunday on Oanda charts. I do this because on my backtests I've never looked of the triggers were Sunday bars or not.

Edited May 28, 2012 by SpecTrade
CHART

[SpecTrade 10]

I AM UNABLE TO MODIFY MY 1ST POST, SO I WILL DESCRIBE MY 3 STRATEGIES IN THESE 3 POSTS.

 

For this I use Oanda charts, which display Sunday bars.

 

Indicators:

Round Numbers

SMA 120, 200.

ATR stop (atr=2 ema=2 atrstop=2)

Overlay with korharmonics indicator

 

Setups:

1. at 120 sma

2. at 200 sma

3. harmonic pattern

4. other support/resistance area

 

Triggers:

1. PB (Pin Bar)

2. I4 (Inside bar narrow range in last 4)

3. IB (Inside Bar)

4. PBNR (Pin Bar Narrow Range - almost like doji)

5. OB (Outside Bar)

6. Bullish or bearish bar that reacted significantly off Setup area

7. Separation (wick) that is significant off Setup area

 

Trade Management:

SL=BE at the pips=original SL

half closed at 1:2 Risk Reward

half trailed with ATR stop or bar by bar in case of large movements

Edited May 28, 2012 by SpecTrade

[SpecTrade 10]

For this one I use charts without Sunday bars, preferably FXDD, but also Alpari time will do. This is slightly modified J16 strategy.

 

Indicators:

1. 365 EMA

2. 150 EMA

3. 21 EMA

4. 8 EMA

5. ATR STOP

6. MODIFIED MACD (ENERGY)

7. OVERLAY WITH korharmonics indicator

 

Setups:

 

Near significant area of emas: 365, 150, 21, 8, harmonic pattern, other S/R area

 

Triggers:

Usually PB, PBNR, and I4.

 

I do not look for harmonic patterns with my eyes, I use indicator for this. It has proven effective for me. Plus the setup has specific standards, since the indicator' settings.

 

Trade managemnt:

same as STRATEGY 1

Edited May 28, 2012 by SpecTrade