Market Energy: 2012 Trading Journal

[SpecTrade 10]

Well, I've decided to really do it. To put every trade I take in public. I've tried that before but never had the discipline to follow through.

 

What I trade is Forex & Gold. I also analyze SP500, sometimes other markets.

EURUSD, GBPJPY, USDCAD, GOLD, GBPUSD, alternatively also EURCAD, AUDUSD, AUDJPY.

 

My trading methodology, indicators, etc is two-fold:

 

1. I successfully use moving averages. I treat them as Floating S/R zones. (Minor ones are ema 8,13,21, middle: ema 100, 150, to some markets 89, major sma200, ema 275, ema 365, weekly ema52 high/low is quarterly mean reversion for me, monthly ema 70 with specific levels is yearly mean reversion for me)

 

2. Swings: 18-day swings, 10-day swings, 5-day swings. On these I use price zones, for example retracements (37, 50, 62) and other areas of interest. Swings also help me to identify Price Pivot Zone, where demand becomes supply, v/v. Retracements are made in simple way or counting price and time, for these I use Donn Fisher's Dynamic Gann Levels or, Andrew's Pitchforks, or Fib Channels.

 

3. Price action setups must occur at the areas of interest listed above.

 

4. Triggers are bars formations, such as: reversal/key reversal, pin bar, inside bar, tweezer. If price reacts from the interest zone but has shown none of the above I use heiken-ashi change of color to get me in.

 

No, my charts are not clean. I usually trade using 3 charts: MA chart, Geometric chart (swings), and on CAD and Gold I also use 8-hour charts.

 

The strategy is a combination of couple of systems/strategies that I've tested for about 5 years. I call it Energy or Market NRG. Many thanks to all the traders who were willing to share, and to all the writers whose books made some difference in my own trading.

Edited January 5, 2012 by SpecTrade
title change

[SpecTrade 10]

EURUSD short @ 1.2975, SL@1.3122. Closed below yearly mean reversion (YMR) support, then touch trade slightly below that area. Now half to B/E, half to 1.2911

 

 

Gold long @1.5678 SL@1.5171. Pin bar off 365ema on 1 chart. 2nd chart shows harmonic bullish pattern, horizontal terminal pattern (HTP) with spring (SPR), price pivot zone (PPZ). Now SL=1.595

 

USDCAD long @ 1.0165 S:@1.0065-1.0030 staggered. Reaction of 150ema support, quarterly mean (QMR), yearly mean support YMRS), and DGL setup.

[SpecTrade 10]

Another long order @ 1.0132. SL staggered @1.0135/1.0080 (Total SL 125pips).

Lower Bollinger Band support (which is also J.Harts' 18-day floating support). Yearly Mean support & 100ema. That's the setup. In each of my setups I want to see at least 2 things converge, so for a long position I'm looking for 2 kinds of support.

The trigger on this chart was Heikenashi color change. Order not filled yet.

[MightyMouse 12]

EURUSD short @ 1.2975, SL@1.3122. Closed below yearly mean reversion (YMR) support, then touch trade slightly below that area. Now half to B/E, half to 1.2911

 

 

Gold long @1.5678 SL@1.5171. Pin bar off 365ema on 1 chart. 2nd chart shows harmonic bullish pattern, horizontal terminal pattern (HTP) with spring (SPR), price pivot zone (PPZ). Now SL=1.595

 

USDCAD long @ 1.0165 S:@1.0065-1.0030 staggered. Reaction of 150ema support, quarterly mean (QMR), yearly mean support YMRS), and DGL setup.

 

When did you get into this trade?

[SpecTrade 10]

When did you get into this trade?

 

I checked the dates of my orders:

EUR 2011.12.29 filled on 30th

Gold 2011.12.30 filled on same day

CAD 2012.01.04 filled same day

[SpecTrade 10]

Another long order @ 1.0132. SL staggered @1.0135/1.0080 (Total SL 125pips).

Lower Bollinger Band support (which is also J.Harts' 18-day floating support). Yearly Mean support & 100ema. That's the setup. In each of my setups I want to see at least 2 things converge, so for a long position I'm looking for 2 kinds of support.

The trigger on this chart was Heikenashi color change. Order not filled yet.

 

long entry order triggered

[SpecTrade 10]

short EUR stop moved @1.2836 and half @ BE

 

CAD long 1st trade stops @1.0154, 2nd trade stops unchanged

[SpecTrade 10]

Every week if I have time I will try to show the way I identify some setups. Today I show 5-6 charts of USDCAD D1 timeframe with 3 lines:

thin line is 100ema,

thick one is 275ema,

orange is 365ema.

 

When the price comes near any one of these ema's from above I identify this as Floating Support areas of interest. Possible long setup.

When the price comes near any one of these ema's from below I identify this as Floating Resistance areas of interest. Possible short setup.

 

On the following charts I marked resistance with downward arrows and support with upward arrows.

Obviously price doesn't respect these areas each time, sometimes it will sit there and whipsaw for awhile, other times it will cut through all of the line hot knife through butter. If it didn't we would have a perfect trading system based on nothing but touch trades off these areas and all of us will be millionaires.

 

However, study these charts (years 2000-2004 I believe) and see how often it was possible to make some good pips/$$$ just by trading near these areas. You need to develop a trigger that is within your trading style. My one is on Daily, but if you want to sit and wait for daytrade, you could possibly get some serious pips after a few trials. Careful trade management would be necessary. Risk never more than 1% of your equity (even as low as 0.3%-0.5% will give good success rate) for intraday. Why so small? You probably will get stopped out couple of times without the possibility of reducing SL. Think about it: if you get into good trend on lower timeframe yours SL will be small, position larger, hence RR can be very, very good.

Even on D1 I risk 1-2% only. Usually 1%, since I try scale into positions and also because I trade other pairs. IMO all markets correlate more often than not. When there is change-in-trend on one pair there is also change in many other pairs and even in markets that are not currencies. I have to be prepared for simultaneous entry on 4-5 markets, moreover I need to be prepared if they all go against me without me loosing more than 7-10% max. That's my heat tolerance, yours might be better or worse.

 

Most important imo is the patience to wait sometimes weeks or even months for what your strategy describes as "setup" area, and what I call an area of interest.

 

There is nothing new in this lesson. Moving averages is what our grandfathers developed and also traded successfully. I hope this lesson will be helpful to some of you.

[SpecTrade 10]

Here I post my how I like to see convergence of various indicators for what I call important area of interest. I have already written about 100,275, and 365 EMAs. I will explain other indicators later.

I post 2 charts of USDCAD present time. Sure, I could just use 1 thing, for example Andrews Pitchforks (Median Lines) or Gann Lines. But that's just my preference. I like to see 2, or preferably 3-4 areas line up.

[MightyMouse 12]

Is it possible for you to post when and where you plan on entering and placing your stop and target before you enter?

[SpecTrade 10]

Is it possible for you to post when and where you plan on entering and placing your stop and target before you enter?

 

Yes, that's my intention. I started here late while the 2012 trades were in.

I posted USDCAD long @1.0132 before entry was triggered.

[SpecTrade 10]

I'd like to thank the people whose ideas I found very useful in my trading.

 

Don Fisher - the creator of DGL (Dynamic Gann Levels) and Andrew who introduced me to him.

Joseph Harts & Jess Thompson - for the amazing "Trend Dynamics"

W.Gann - for his infinite knowledge and ideas, even though most are very hard to comprehend.

Paul Coghlan & - for sharing his mastery of Pitchforks

Tim Morge - for sharing his experiences and knowledge of Andrews' methods

Jim of James16 - for sharing bars formations and PPZ's

Ray Barros - for his book "Nature of Trends"

Ed Seykota - for his web "Trading Tribe" and wisdom.

 

Also the TL community and FF community.

[SpecTrade 10]

Gold stop moved to 1.601.7

 

USDCAD - both trades: half of the positions stops moved to 1.0168

[SpecTrade 10]

Gold stop moved to 1.601.7

 

USDCAD - both trades: half of the positions stops moved to 1.0168

 

 

few hours later: I'm moving stop on Gold back to 1.595 area.

on one chart I have actually short signal - small pin bar off quarterly mean and daily 200sma. H8 chart.

however, it just doesn't seem right, I don't know maybe it will go down, it's just the area doesn't seem that solid.

then i have another chart (with sunday bars) and it shows me more clear that there is nothing to short. so i'm moving my stop at the low of the bullish pin bar.

[SpecTrade 10]

EUR short half stop moved to 1.2905, other half @ 1.2822

[SpecTrade 10]

1st USDCAD long: stops moved to BE + 3 pips.

2nd long: half@ 1.0168, other half @ 1.0100.

It looks that very probably I may get stopped on both trades.

[SpecTrade 10]

1st USDCAD long: stops moved to BE + 3 pips.

2nd long: half@ 1.0168, other half @ 1.0100.

It looks that very probably I may get stopped on both trades.

 

a few hours later: 1st trade stopped @ b/e (actually +2, but that's insignificant if i'm looking to get 300-500 pips).

2nd trade half stopped (-65pips).

cad seems not ready to take off in any direction. narrowing pattern = triangle.

[SpecTrade 10]

stop moved: 1,607.2

I'm glad I didn't take the short or brought stop too close.

[SpecTrade 10]

GBPUSD short touch trade order@1.5715 SL@1.5820

 

reasons:

 

chart1:

MQ (Mean Quarterly)

PPZ

50% ret

RN

 

chart2:

Pitchfork (orange line)

Fib Channel (red line)

[SpecTrade 10]

I'm thinking short off Pin Bar at 200sma and 62% retrace.

order @1.0256 SL staggered: 1.0365 & 1.0423

[SpecTrade 10]

it's still running nicely. stop moved 1,612

[SpecTrade 10]

long order @1.0216 SL staggered @1.0145/35. trying to get back in long position. i still have uptrend on my charts.

 

first doji then outside bar off quarterly mean and daily 100ema. h8 chart.

[SpecTrade 10]

eurusd stops moved 1.2822/67

gbpjpy stop moved 119.00

[SpecTrade 10]

eur half closed @ 1.2822 (+153pips/2)

 

cad long order change: long @ 1.0214, stops unchanged

 

gold stop moved 1,627.5

[SpecTrade 10]

it's not surprising that sp500 gives bearish signal, as it arrived at it's turning point on my h8 chart - it is exactly at POC (point-of-change) from a larger previous swing. right now it looks like a tiny upthrust pattern. price also follows up along the resistance of DGL level 1. however stop here would have to be quite far: above the MX (maximum extension area) , let's say at least 1.3300. However, given the recent rotation above the res. made of MQ (quarterly mean - gray line), MYR1 (yearly mean res.1 - dashed red line) daily 275 ema (white line: thick) and daily 365ema (white line very thick) - I have some doubts, because it gave numerous bearish pin bars, yet the res. level became a support. It could be that the uptrend persists. We are in a trading zone - meaning, we should be taking short as well as long signals.

 

Two Daily charts also looks slightly bearish, but what disagrees is: again rotation above 365ema (purple) and also forks as well as DGL disagree. The best area of thinking short is the upper green circle I've marked, or at least the lower one. We're still in an area of PPZ - marked dark gray, so bears will be no surprise.

Another chart with Fib.Channel - gives an excellent area to short - but wait until this day is over and let's see how the bar looks like.

It's just the manner in which price smoothly went above some resistance points... it could be just a correction.

 

What happened to Corn today? And Soybeans? !!!

Oh, if I only had the money to trade either Corn or Soybeans. Some very nice signals in these markets...

Edited January 12, 2012 by SpecTrade
mistake in ema number