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Rande Howell

Taking the Blinders Off the Trading Mind

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  Rande Howell said:
Mitsubishi

 

This answer is not for you. It is for people who actually seek to learn, rather than defiantly defend their position (or to blow off steam). It is a good question.

 

Understanding how the mind operates in pressure situations (and changing it) is something that actually has to be studied and understood by stepping back from it. The psychological dynamics involved in the dance of trading is not sacred to the people who trade. It is observable and falls into categories. What you are actually studying is how a mind, with its inherent biases and adaptations, engages uncertainty. It is in this dance that the beliefs that the trader holds about him or herself in the world and their capacity to engage uncertainty are revealed. It is these beliefs, called your mindset, that "causes" the trader to see and interpret market data in the ways they do -- and they act on them.

 

These beliefs and emotion become embedded. That is what trades. Laying out a roadmap for the way a trader emotionally interacts with the market is pretty straight forward really. For people who are trained (not just psychology types) to look for the elements of the process of performance, the various markers are not mysterous. I find very few traders can do this for themselves. And this assertion is backed up by the methodology teachers I work with. Trainers (really good ones who train their methodology as they trade in live rooms) report to me that they can train a person in the methodology to where the trader should be competent to trade -- but isn't. The problem is the mindset that the trader brings to the trade. The trainers are frustrated and baffled by why their students keep losing. They know it is in the way the mind perceives uncertainty and risk.

 

Until that changes, the trader continues in the old self limiting ways. As long as the trader seeks to find discipline externally rather than internally, they lose the opportunity to change their self limiting ways. This is what the methodology teachers understand. They do not have a problem with my not trading. They have a problem with teaching their students how to manage their psychology of risk and uncertainty. And they have figured out that they can't teach this part of trading. They may have had an attitude such as yours at one time, but hundreds and thousands of traders later, they have become convinced that training a trader's psychology to trade is, in fact, very different than teaching a process that allows a trader to have an edge in trading. Until mind and method are on the same page, the trader still has one hand tied behind his back.

 

I encourage traders to convince themselves of this by their performances and not by what I or what you say. Let it be evidenced based. You can believe your deceptions, but your trading account does not care about the rightousness of your beliefs. Only that they are effective. Usually that takes many thousands of dollars of losses for them to come a new conclusion. It's a trader's money. Your trading account will tell you if your beliefs that you bring to trading are effective or not. Look there and you will find grounding to support or question the effectiveness of your beliefs. This is where biases are seperated from grounded assessments of performance. Personally I find very few traders care whether I trade or not. They are concerned if I can help them manage the emotions and mindset that they bring to trading.

 

And may your trading be fruitful. And may you learn from it.

 

Rande Howell

 

No question that if one is having difficulty trading that he needs to change and the greatest improvement will come from changing they way he thinks. How he changes how he thinks is the question. There are incredibly simple solutions to improve and excel at trading without having to delve into the inner workings of your subconscious or trace back your cells to when they swam in a primordial soup.

 

Some may be so damaged that they simply cannot trade in the same way that a woman couldn't compete in the NFL or MLB. They might just have the wrong wiring or plumbing, etc.

 

When do you suggest they call it quits?

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  MightyMouse said:
No question that if one is having difficulty trading that he needs to change and the greatest improvement will come from changing they way he thinks. How he changes how he thinks is the question. There are incredibly simple solutions to improve and excel at trading without having to delve into the inner workings of your subconscious or trace back your cells to when they swam in a primordial soup.

 

Some may be so damaged that they simply cannot trade in the same way that a woman couldn't compete in the NFL or MLB. They might just have the wrong wiring or plumbing, etc.

 

When do you suggest they call it quits?

 

Interesting point of view MM, I think you have made some good points.

 

What simple solutions do you have in mind " to excel at trading without having to delve into the inner workings of your subconscious or trace back your cells to when they swam in a primordial soup."

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  johnw said:
Interesting point of view MM, I think you have made some good points.

 

What simple solutions do you have in mind " to excel at trading without having to delve into the inner workings of your subconscious or trace back your cells to when they swam in a primordial soup."

 

Serious?

 

Get rid of fear. I have discussed this many times. Fear is debilitating and should be minimized. If you can't figure out a way, then you should do something else. For me, it was minimizing the amount at risk over a period of time.

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  MightyMouse said:
Serious?

 

Get rid of fear. I have discussed this many times. Fear is debilitating and should be minimized. If you can't figure out a way, then you should do something else. For me, it was minimizing the amount at risk over a period of time.

 

 

Good idea.

Is this your " incredibly simple solutions" to quote your words.

 

How did you " Get rid of fear"

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  mitsubishi said:
I bet Rande had no idea what a can of worms he was opening here.Have you considered hypnotism J? Sounds like a last resort i know.But assuming you can't identify the fear and come up with logical remedies to assuage it,then the fear must be the fear of succeeding..very real for some folks.,

 

I'd suggest a script to Paul Mckenna something along the lines of:

 

''Sleep,sleep,sleep,....When you wake up,i want you to imagine you work for Goldman Sachs and that you're doing Gods' work.It's a very noble enterprise and you can't wait to get started making the world a poorer place in the interests of enriching yourself.

You will have a new insight into how markets work every time you look at a chart and the predictability of price action will soon begin to bore you slightly,though just enough for you to branch out into other areas-such as bribing and corrupting public officials.You'll realise that the more you fear losing money,the more it will slip through your fingers and that money must be viewed as merely the tool of your trade.You'll wonder why you ever had a problem doing something,that at the end of the day,is just a job.Specialized,but merely a job.Being human,you'll want to share your new found insights even with complete strangers,but will soon realise this usually results in banging your head against a wall,so will try more subtle means,before finally excepting that you're ''one of the special ones''

 

Ok..wake,wake,wake...

 

So this is how you got rid of your fear mitsubishi ... through hypnotism

 

What are you afraid of?

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  johnw said:
Good idea.

Is this your " incredibly simple solutions" to quote your words.

 

How did you " Get rid of fear"

 

 

Lower $ risk = Less fear.

 

If you can't find a simple solution, you are playing the wrong game.

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  MightyMouse said:
No question that if one is having difficulty trading that he needs to change and the greatest improvement will come from changing they way he thinks. How he changes how he thinks is the question. There are incredibly simple solutions to improve and excel at trading without having to delve into the inner workings of your subconscious or trace back your cells to when they swam in a primordial soup.

 

Some may be so damaged that they simply cannot trade in the same way that a woman couldn't compete in the NFL or MLB. They might just have the wrong wiring or plumbing, etc.

 

When do you suggest they call it quits?

 

These are thoughtful observations and question. If you have the better mousetrap that can teach a struggling trader to turn the corner on his trading, I hope they all knock on your door. steve46 (as I remember it) assumed that just about a trader could trade successfully if he were prepared properly. A successful trader himself (by his assertion), he took that competency to the next level by beginning to train other traders. He also (again if I remember correctly) was highly selective in which traders he would work with. My memory is also that he has experienced difficulty in translating his skill sets to other traders. If he is reading this, I hope he will clarify. So it wasn't the external rules of discipline that was the problem. It was the internal sense of calm authority the trader entered the trading environment that was the problem. I hope he is listening, because I would love to hear of his experience.

 

I don't really see that many damaged people (beyond normal people) trying to learn to become successful traders. I see traders who do not know how to manage emotions and have mindsets that have never been trained to deal with uncertainty.

 

The powerful question you ask about when to quit I don't believe has an absolute answer. From what I've seen, it's a question that a trader has to struggle with. Mostly, I find, that it boils down to a person's stubborness in resisting change. If he is not willing to change, then there is no reason to trade.

 

Rande Howell

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  zdo said:
Mitsubishi,

 

You don’t have to be a trader to be fascinated with and / or need to understand how the humans typically deal with an environment that presents continuous uncertainty.

You don’t have to be a psychologist either.

 

We become more proficient in an arena as we raise our awareness.

We become more proficient in an arena that we hone and leverage our focus …

We become more proficient in what we “measure”…

Bringing a "threat orientation" instead of an "opportunity orientation" diminishes our chances of doing any of the above.

 

Rande simply offers some ways to destroy some 'threat' patterns and create some 'opportunity' patterns. His is a niche. In fact, all trading vendors, even the ones who believe they have the solution for everyone, only have a tiny niche ...and only a tiny 'success' rate too. After all they are dealing with ... traders :doh:

 

 

All the best,

 

zdo

 

that got me thinking.... would you really want a psychologist to also be a trader?

 

both areas are so specialised that i doubt anyone could seriously expect to be proficient at both unless they were of such years they had time to truly master 1 skill until it became 2nd nature that they could attempt the other. with the time it takes to go through med school, i think it would be unlikely given the constant change of markets and dedication needed to be a success that one could find the time to master both.

 

my accountant, cleaner, gardener, mechanic all do great jobs for me - none of them have traded either thank God!

Edited by TheDude

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  TheDude said:
that got me thinking.... would you really want a psychologist to also be a trader?

 

* * *

 

my accountant, cleaner, gardener, mechanic all do great jobs for me - none of them have traded either thank God!

 

Is your accountant, cleaner, gardener, or mechanic claiming he can show you how to develop a trader's mind so you can extract for yourself from the markets? I'm thinking no, and that you go to them for accounting, cleaning, gardening, and getting your car fixed.

 

You would benefit yourself immensely by taking a course in logical reasoning.

 

Fun thread.

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  Rande Howell said:
These are thoughtful observations and question. If you have the better mousetrap that can teach a struggling trader to turn the corner on his trading, I hope they all knock on your door. steve46 (as I remember it) assumed that just about a trader could trade successfully if he were prepared properly. A successful trader himself (by his assertion), he took that competency to the next level by beginning to train other traders. He also (again if I remember correctly) was highly selective in which traders he would work with. My memory is also that he has experienced difficulty in translating his skill sets to other traders. If he is reading this, I hope he will clarify. So it wasn't the external rules of discipline that was the problem. It was the internal sense of calm authority the trader entered the trading environment that was the problem. I hope he is listening, because I would love to hear of his experience.

 

I don't really see that many damaged people (beyond normal people) trying to learn to become successful traders. I see traders who do not know how to manage emotions and have mindsets that have never been trained to deal with uncertainty.

 

The powerful question you ask about when to quit I don't believe has an absolute answer. From what I've seen, it's a question that a trader has to struggle with. Mostly, I find, that it boils down to a person's stubborness in resisting change. If he is not willing to change, then there is no reason to trade.

 

Rande Howell

 

I don't want anyone knocking at my door.

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  gosu said:
Is your accountant, cleaner, gardener, or mechanic claiming he can show you how to develop a trader's mind so you can extract for yourself from the markets? I'm thinking no, and that you go to them for accounting, cleaning, gardening, and getting your car fixed.

 

You would benefit yourself immensely by taking a course in logical reasoning.

 

Fun thread.

 

in keeping with the fun and food for thought to open the mind/discussion....

 

if a psychologist came to you claiming to do your accounts, fix your car, clean the house then you might ask questions, but if they said they might have techniques to help with mental issues (not the illness types) then surely they are best qualified.

 

Again logically we might think that a psychologist that trades would be better than one that does not, however, have you heard the old saying "the best builders have the worst houses"......my guess is that might apply in the same way. :2c:

 

I think any accountant/gardener/cleaner/psychologist that claims they can get you to make money in the markets is one to be wary of....however one that might offer some qualified advice/processes/ideas/training in their technical field of expertise that might actually benefit you, or how you conduct yourself might have some merit.

 

Whether that is of any value to each individual is entirely up to that individual ......

I presently dont have a garden, but I do have a cleaner, and I often wish I had not taken my accountants advice.....to date I have not needed a pyschologist but I often suggest to my partner that she should see one....;)

 

So I guess logically - as per usual - each individual has to make the choice dependent on their circumstances for themselves.....unless of course the gardener offers extra benefits

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  mitsubishi said:
Americans...................... ever since they turned bombing people into a business plan

(took me 10 minutes to identify the reason:) )

 

gm mitsubishi,

 

This is an interesting ' look under the hood' that you are giving us... your hood that is.

 

Firstly, BS, be it political or religion, upsets your equilibrium and now American foreign policy is the root cause of your fears... this what you write in your posts.

 

Both of these conditions are perfectly reasonable and both of them lie safely outside

your ability to change them.

In other words, in your current state you feel both safe and powerless simultaneously and therefore you see no reason to change.

After all, there will always be BS in the world and America will always have a piece of foreign policy that you find distasteful and so you have a life times ammunition.

 

What does it take for a Person to change?

'Desire' ... that is all it takes ...'a desire to change'

Change doesn't require a loss of money, nor does it ask for pain or grief or ill health or any other negative or distressful condition.

 

All 'Change' requires is the desire to change to get the ball rolling.

 

How hard can that be?

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Johnw “desire”

Rande Howell “manage feelings”

Mitsubishi just do it, etc...

MightyMouse “think”

 

 

hep me geezus

 

Posters named and labeled for illustrative purposes only! I’m not really restrictiing or pigeon holing any of the individuals named to just those things… but

 

What would it take for us to discuss how it is all of the above and more?

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  SIUYA said:
in keeping with the fun and food for thought to open the mind/discussion....

 

if a psychologist came to you claiming to do your accounts, fix your car, clean the house then you might ask questions, but if they said they might have techniques to help with mental issues (not the illness types) then surely they are best qualified.

 

* * *

 

Let's be more exacting here for even more fun.

 

If the psychologist came to my door saying he was a TRADING PSYCHOLOGIST and had techniques to help with mental issues related to TRADING, I would hear him out. If he then started talking about fear of pulling the trigger as a central issue and how overcoming limited thinking about money that is inherited from our parents is the formula for dealing with uncertainty in the markets, yet he himself cannot trade, I would take out the vacuum from the closet and tell him he had better get to cleaning if he wanted to make any money from me.

 

 

Just because trading is a mental game does not mean a person has "mental issues (not the illness types)" if he cannot do it. It is much more likely the person lacks the Knowledge, Skill, and Experience needed to extract from the markets.

 

Regarding learning from nontraders, of course I have learned from people who don't or can't trade that has benefitted my trading. The person I consulted for my computer systems doesn't trade. The electrician who rewired my office doesn't trade. The support people who answer my questions regarding my software may or may not trade. Picking their brains about their fields of expertise has benefitted me as a trader.

 

In any case, I do agree with you that everyone should make his own choices about what is helpful to him.

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Gee Mitsubishi initially on reading this I thought yep you are on it - all those stupid fat lazy good for nothing in bred people who range from those that clean your house, build the roads, operate the schools, run the banks, the institutions in society right up to "everyone" should be demonised and cleaned up.....much like certain tyranical societies have done in the past and certain ideolgies at present and I am sure in the future would like to control everyone with their version of what is right.

It seems you dont like those that look for excuses, nor do you like those that gamed the system as it stands....that makes it easy for you - everyone is an idiot

 

Aren't you offering your own brand of sales pitched psychology here without offering any real practical solutions to help apart from maybe join your local "your'e all idiots - grumpy old men " group (YAI -GOM)???

 

My father is a part of this group - its depressing, as I dont see any positive inputs from such thoughts and while you may not need to see a psychologist I am sure these rants might make others think you do.....:)

 

Either way.....you are free to choose ....would you like to take that freedom from others?

 

Personally I blame the accountants for all of societies woes - off course after I blame myself every morning, but by the end of the day I know I am part of the solution and those sticking accountants are still out there causing mayhem and undermining society.;)

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  mitsubishi said:

 

Of course,there is always a price for everything,and in this case the price is that England,who invented football and cricket can't win a damn thing.Imagine 50 David Beckhams rather than one and you see what i mean.The Bunnies never concern themselves with the majority,despite their claimed belief in democracy.

These people are fully trained members of the self entitlement trend......(cont'd)

 

Inventing a game doesn't entitle you to anything other than being recognised as 'the inventor of the game', and it's not true that England can't win a damn thing.

 

The England team are the current ICC World Twenty20 champions having won the 2010 ICC World Twenty20 and are the current holders of the Ashes, which is the Test match series contest between England and Australia and which has been played since the 1882–83 Australian season. The team is currently in sixth place in the ICC ODI Championship and, as of August 2011, are the top ranked Test side in the world. Wikipedia.

 

I could go on about outstanding players like Botham, Gooch, Stewart, and more recently the likes of Flintoff...... but I won't :)

 

Mitsubishi would you like to offer up a time when you considered things were better, or do you consider that the rot set in about the time of your birth.

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.........................................................................................................................

  mitsubishi said:
CELEBRITIES/THE MEDIA/SPORTS/CULTURE

 

Ever find yourself trawling through 150 channels of junk on the TV trying to find something worth watching? Ever asked yourself why you're paying to be not entertained?

Welcome to the rewarding failure trend

 

No I don't ever, and I fail to understand it's relevance in your argument.

 

Ever get tired of listening to untalented B-movie celebrities agonising over their next plastic boob job?

 

What?, sorry Mitsy but WTF.

 

Ever wondered why your teenage kids are even more miserable 'cos they aren't talentless enough to join the ever growing members on the rewarding failure trend?

 

Well mine aren't there yet, I can only hope that their value system installed by their all knowing father will overide this :)

 

Ever wondered why the 100k a week sports stars never put a single dime back into the game they owe everything to? Is it 'cos they're part of the self entitlement trend that actually believes they're worth it?

 

You mentioned Beckham earlier, you know he's pretty charitable.

 

Ever despaired that each less educated,world owes me a living generation, is slowly dumbing down the entire planet and ensuring the 1% and Bunnies get to stay in power?

 

Less educated? not sure what you mean by this. There has been recently huge efforts by humans to change the balance of power has there not? I think your "BLINDERS" are well and truly strapped on

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Reminds me of the scene in Animal House - when Belushi's character (Bluto) is responding to a pledge being suspended - and wails to the gods "Did you say over? Nothing is over. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?".

 

Entertaining - but let's not desire it to be factual as well.

 

Mitsu, I think we need to check your lithium levels. Your on a rant worthy of Dennis Miller hopped up on chocolate covered coffee beans dipped in meth. Somewhere I see the good Doctor - err scratch that - the good LPC - leaning back in his chair - scratching his beard (you do have a beard right Rande? Since were throwing stereotypes around like cheap nerf footballs) - delighting in the fact he doesn't have to have you on his couch.

 

Somewhere in TL Hall of Fame, this thread should be bronzed and memorialized.

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gm mitsubshi,

 

Well, you have managed to describe the negatively charged space that your mind occupies

in a far more descriptive manner than my post #57.... it really is a look under your hood.

 

Of course a part of the world exists as you describe it ... but why do you chose to place yourself at the center of it...

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  mitsubishi said:
Well that's a very interesting point.

Now i know that my rants tend to be entertaining (hopefully) first and factual second, but things have changed..coincidently right at the time of my birth.(1960)

Prior to this decade,the swinging 60's,when people said things like '' hey that's cool dude..and give peace a chance'' things were very different.After the war there was rationing,far less sex outside marriage,you got married at 21,could spend your working life at one company (when we had a manufacturing industry),and when people got arrested for something,they didn't sit in the interview room saying ''no comment...no comment...no comment'' They didn't think the world owed them a living- they were lucky to be alive and getting on with clearing up the mess that Hitler made.

Not saying everything was perfect.There were plenty of slugs grafting away under the stone.The socialists got a good start here,creating the national health service and respecting the rights of the workers.Later,as i said,they would evolve into the Bunnies If the slugs can't get rid off something,they will infiltrate it and rot it from the inside out.

Then the 70's came and it was a great time to be a teenager.You could get away with stuff your parents could never dream of,which tended to annoy my fathers generation.

Then in the 80's,we finally had to face the real world and get a job.But this was the era of ''Greed is Good'' and it would never be as easy to make money again.

Meanwhile the Bunnies had by now, produced a generation of ''what about me?/world owes me a living'' folks and the entitlement trend was embedded in the culture.So.into the 90's where if you couldn't earn it,you did it on credit.

Whereas in the 60's/70's,if you couldn't afford,you didn't buy.Now everybody wanted it all and they wanted it now.And the slugs always do a nice line in credit.In fact they built a 2nd empire on the stuff and then crashed the whole thing into a wall,which is where we are now.

Does any of this ring true with anyone out there or did i just make up my own history lesson?''

And i know each generation turns into their own father,getting irritated by everything and talking about the good old days and you want me to talk about the positives but..

If everything is fine and dandy then what would psychologists do for a living? :confused::helloooo::):):):)

 

It is a very close macro description of recent times; however you omitted the fact that while our parents were critical of us getting away with things they could not get away with, they were busy setting up social healthcare and retirement benefits for themselves that they did not have the money to pay for, deciding, instead, to leave the burden of paying for it on others.

 

Meanwhile, grandpa can get a new heartvalve to keep him alive to enjoy his state of dementia without his estate paying a dime. What would the holidays be like without grandpa sitting at the table, staring aimlessly at the center piece?

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This thread certainly has taken the blunders off the trading mind!

Thanks all. Great job.

Have a wonderful weekend.

 

If a psychologist "showed up at my door", I'd hire her on the spot... she's also a psychic...

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I encourage readers of this forum go back and re-read the article I posted that has prompted this discourse. When you read it, really notice what I am saying about beliefs and feeling and their impact on perception and the creation of a particular reality. Particularly the way they co-mingle and produce a certainty of belief in what ever direction that the emotion is taking them THAT IS NON-NEGOTIABLE. Then read, from these eyes, this thread. It is really fascinating. What I notice is that the direction of the discourse is not about observing the impact beliefs and the feeling element of an emotion has on our trading or our lives. No, this discourse is about being fused to beliefs and feelings that take us for a ride without our ever really knowing it -- so consumed by the fire of the emotion. Now apply that to trading.

 

Rande Howell

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Wow! Rande you still yanking at them blinkers?

 

  mitsubishi said:

If it wasn't for guys a shade older than him strapping themselves into spitfires,i might have been born into a very different world.

 

... recently I saw an article about a 'health and safety' issue concerning old Spitfire pilots....it would have you breathing flames mitzy, I can't post the link for fear it may induce an aneurysm. ;)

 

I grew up in the seventies too, and apart from some quite awesome musical talent knocking around.....oh and the motorways were empty...... it was pretty s#it.

 

There's the US kicking Vietnamese and Cambodian ass, Watergate, then the Arabs and Jews had a war :doh: yeah, a real one not just blowing raspberries. The IRA was blowing up stuff, the cold war, the cod war, two Germanys, inflation hitting a mighty 24%, stagflation! 3 day weeks, oil crisis, and no TV after 10:30pm.....

 

The end of that decade culminated in countrywide industrial action that had rubbish piled up to the second floor and grave diggers not digging graves.

 

...ahhh happy days :rofl:

 

(I apologise for any facts that may have spoiled this post) ;)

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    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
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