Market Profile Trading Setup

[TinGull 10]

I'm using 30 min with session from 8:20 - 4:15. The pivots and all on the site you gave there don't make much sense for MP. The VAH and such wouldn't have given as clear an opportunity as it did on mine....for ER2 anyways.

[torero 10]

I guess there are different ways to calculate MP so no idea which one is the real one. Oh well.

[ant 10]

Hey Guys,

 

Please make sure that you are using a 30m chart with a timeframe of 9:30-4:15 EST. I believe that is what this site uses (http://www.mypivots.com/DailyNotes/dailynotes.aspx).

 

Soultrader, the value area for the YM should match exactly with the site mentioned above.

 

Torero, please compare your value area for the past few days with the site and let me know what you get.

[torero 10]

Ant,

 

I see two different MPs on the following, I use ER2Z06 AND @ER2.D

 

For ER2Z06 I set the custom session to 8:30-3:15pm (exchange time).

For @ER2.D I set to "regular session"

 

I get two different results. Not sure which one is appropriate but neigther showed the numbers close to the mypivots site.

[ant 10]

Torero,

 

Do you expect to get the same MP for ER2Z06 using bars from 8:30-3:15pm as you do for ER2.D for the regular session? I'm sure you know that they generate different 30m bars that would influence the MP and value area.

 

Could you tell me what your UVA, POC, and LVA are for 10/20, for example, for the regular session of ER2.D? I want to make sure we are set up the same way.

 

Thanks.

[Soultrader 12]

Sorry to spoil the fun guys but could you post any questions you may have about Ant's market profile indicator in the original thread located here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f46/market-profile-indicator-tradestation-646.html

 

It will be alot easier for other members who may encounter similar problems. Thanks

[Gordon G. 10]

Dear James and Ant,

 

I found it difficult to trade the ES with MP reference points yesterday, probably because the markets were waiting for the FOMC ... don't know.

 

Any idea of how to use MP in days like this ?

[Soultrader 12]

Dear James and Ant,

 

I found it difficult to trade the ES with MP reference points yesterday, probably because the markets were waiting for the FOMC ... don't know.

 

Any idea of how to use MP in days like this ?

 

Hey Gordon,

 

I admit 10/25 was a hard day to trade off MP. I had some issues as well. If you take a look at my premarket analysis, I mentioned that I had trouble finding decent trading opportunities. A couple traders had excellent entry points at the weekly pivot which was pretty much the low for the day.

 

One of the things about trading is to identify trading opportunities from days that offer no opportunities. For me, 10/25 was a no opportunity day.

 

Talking MP... you saw that the previous days were stuck in consolidation. So one method you could of applied was to play the consolidation brackets. This means watching for the VAL and VAH for 10/23 and 10/24. These areas offered trading opportunities.

[ant 10]

Dear James and Ant,

 

I found it difficult to trade the ES with MP reference points yesterday, probably because the markets were waiting for the FOMC ... don't know.

 

Any idea of how to use MP in days like this ?

 

For 10/25, I keyed on the selling tail, the high volume node of the 2-day composite, and the single prints below the balance area. See chart. However, during the trading day on 10/25 I didn't see a good entry based on market internals so I didn't get a trade in. So I agree with James on the "no trade". I usually do not enter a trade at a MP reference area without confirmation, especially on an FOMC day.

[TinGull 10]

My MP levels were perfect on FOMC day, and today they worked out great too. I've still got mine set to 8:20am-4:15pm EDT. Especially early in the day when you can see it broke through the POC and UVA and pulled right back to it and zoomed up...pulled back and zoomed up. Very nice.

[TinGull 10]

And today...perfect again. I tried using the 9:30-4:15...it's not so hot for me.

[torero 10]

tingull, what timeframe as you using for MP charting? I see you have 2 mins shown but is it what you use or something else? thanks.

[torero 10]

i'm not sure if anyone has been to enthios.com where Jardine talks about VPOC (Virgin POC) where this POC has been touched by price in the days after the POC was formed. Anyone know if this worthwhile technique?

[TinGull 10]

Torero, I use a 2 minute candle chart, 30 minute MP. And I don't know if the VPOC is worthwhile or not...I haven't done any research on it.

[Soultrader 12]

Didnt know Jardine started teaching MP. I thought he was fib trader?

 

So the VPOC is a POC of the past trading days that acts as S&R? Not too sure if I follow correctly.

[ezduzzit 10]

Yep, the ER2 definitely bucks like a bronco, but you were spot on regarding the rewards of trading it.

 

Heck, Life was meant to be fun and a wild ride or else why even be here? There will most definitely be those who wish to timidly (they will say "calmly") muddle through life, comfortable and assured, however as long as I was lucky enough to be dropped in here to all the fun, I am gonna continue to go for it and enjoy the ride.

 

I must say that I am not even at the beginner's rank in MP but let's face it, the market has one basic tenet... to find equilibrium. It rises or falls to shut down runaway extremes and then attempts to edge its way back to efficiency.

 

Also, while many academics would disagree with us, I agree with SoulTrader that the markets are not simply random. I think the randomness we think we see comes from the constant struggles and impulses of trade placement from the large horde of retail traders as they constantly run to and fro in their mad dash to catch up with the runaway market moves. Yes, the bigger answer comes back to fear and greed but let's not forget the market hovers at and stops at value points, be they MP or Fibonacci or S/R or what have you, because people accept them, believe in them and act on them. That makes the game basically self-fulfilling, with the big players leading the greedy and fearful all over the board.

 

Our job, at least as I see it, is to ascertain what the big boys are doing and what the likely reaction will be by the horde of retail traders (of which we are a part) and then to take advantage of that highly probable response (once we ascertain any reasonable confirmation of it) without getting too greedy. As long as we continue to then think and ACT in terms of probabilities, expecting our rules and methods to keep us profitable over time, then this can be a fun game rather than one of stress, frustration and unaccceptable levels of loss.

 

It may be a simple game, but it abounds with tricks and unexpected plays carried out by those who simply understand the game far better than we do. we either learn how to find and join in on the positions they take (through whatever means of buyer/seller pressure we follow) or we continue to allow our accounts to remain avaiable for savaging by them.

 

Happy Trading

[torero 10]

Didnt know Jardine started teaching MP. I thought he was fib trader?

 

So the VPOC is a POC of the past trading days that acts as S&R? Not too sure if I follow correctly.

 

Check out enthios.com with ES and ER2 blog. He uses VPOC as S/R. His method is mainly counter-trend trading, which I think is ok but not my style. Heck I bought his book based on Fibo title but this blog is all about MP, nothing about fibs. I'm confused as to which method he really uses or the book is just for selling.

[Gordon G. 10]

Dear Ant and James,

 

talking about the 25th (yes, I know: I arrive a little bit late), why do you consider the volume bulk of 23th and 24th together and the value area of these 2 sessions and not of the bracket (23+25) ?

 

As regards the 27th, we saw a move down to the volume area created from the 23rd to the 25th.

Which scenario would make us thinking a downtrend is taking place; a move under the volume bulk ? A move through the single prints of the 23rd ?

 

Have a nice sunday !

 

Michele

[ant 10]

Why do you consider the volume bulk of 23th and 24th together and the value area of these 2 sessions and not of the bracket (23+25) ?

 

10/25 was a break out of the short-term balance area of 10/23 and 10/24. This was basically a retracement within an uptrend.

 

Which scenario would make us thinking a downtrend is taking place; a move under the volume bulk ? A move through the single prints of the 23rd ?

 

A move through the single prints of the 23rd would put price back into the balance area that formed prior to the 10/23. When a market is in a trend and then trades between two high volume nodes, this usually indicates that the trend is transitioning back to balance and a larger balance area might form. Eventually, we would look for a breakout of that larger balance area and the cycle will repeat itself.

[DeefMan 10]

Here is an article written by Michael Jardine (enthios) for Ensign's newsletter, describing how he uses POC & Virgin POC.

[ant 10]

Deefman, thanks for the link. There are a lot of interesting articles there.

[Soultrader 12]

Dear Ant and James,

 

talking about the 25th (yes, I know: I arrive a little bit late), why do you consider the volume bulk of 23th and 24th together and the value area of these 2 sessions and not of the bracket (23+25) ?

 

As regards the 27th, we saw a move down to the volume area created from the 23rd to the 25th.

Which scenario would make us thinking a downtrend is taking place; a move under the volume bulk ? A move through the single prints of the 23rd ?

 

Have a nice sunday !

 

Michele

 

Very interesting question Michele. What makes trading so interesting is the way each individual trader interprets the same exact information differently.

 

In reply to your first question: I personally paid more attention to the value high cluster of the 23rd and 24th at around 12170 on the YM. The 23rd was a significant trend to the upside. If you refer to this bracket, this would place the bracket from 12026 (10/23 low) to 12180 (10/24 high).

 

However, this is not the way I interpreted the markets. If you take a look at the action from 10/18 to 10/20 price is trading in a zone from 12000 to 12100. Therefore the lower bracket of the new zone as price broke above on 10/23 became 12100. Therefore the range was 12100 to 12180 for me. I hope I didnt lose you here...

 

Your second question regarding the 27th:

 

True prices did test the POC of 10/25. However, this was not part of my analysis. Price simply tested the S1 pivot in my opinion (a favorite pivot among floor traders and professionals).

 

Looking at the bigger picture, a WARNING signal would be a break below 12100 the established lower range of the new zone. Then down towards 12000. Do not confuse WARNING with an official downtrend. Fridays action to me just looks like price rotated back from the upper range towards the lower range. Although we had an afernoon decline below value we are still accepted in the value area from 10/23 and 10/25. Not too bearish in my opinion.

 

On the daily charts, Fridays action was part of a pullback from the nice trend we are having from July.

[torero 10]

Dear Ant and James,

 

talking about the 25th (yes, I know: I arrive a little bit late), why do you consider the volume bulk of 23th and 24th together and the value area of these 2 sessions and not of the bracket (23+25) ?

 

As regards the 27th, we saw a move down to the volume area created from the 23rd to the 25th.

Which scenario would make us thinking a downtrend is taking place; a move under the volume bulk ? A move through the single prints of the 23rd ?

 

Have a nice sunday !

 

Michele

 

Michele, are you using MP to trade the European futures? Which ones? How are they working for you? How's the volume compared to US futures? Who is the best broker for trading these? I'm interesting in getting into DAX and Eurostoxx so want to get some insight. Thanks.

[Gordon G. 10]

Dear James and Ant,

 

thanks to both for your kind replies !

 

Ant, if I understood well your reply, you put a time limit to the trend (for example, 2 days of balance are to be considered so when considering the volume, but for the VA references you prefer to still look at these singularly - daily - because the "pause days" are not many and it can be considered a retracement). It's an interesting point of view !

"When a market is in a trend and then trades between two high volume nodes, this usually indicates that the trend is transitioning back to balance and a larger balance area might form" --> these are two 3:2:1 of opposite directions that would form a bigger time frame 3:1:3. Always found very fascinating this theory. To me Steidlmayer is a genius !

 

James, as regards the piece written by you “However, this is not the way I interpreted the markets. If you take a look at the action from 10/18 to 10/20 price is trading in a zone from 12000 to 12100. Therefore the lower bracket of the new zone as price broke above on 10/23 became 12100. Therefore the range was 12100 to 12180 for meâ€Â, I find it interesting as well: I talked to many people who uses MP and read nearly every book and article on MP, but I never heard of anybody using MP this way: thanks for sharing. (YM seems to have found support at 12100 while I’m writing)

 

To me, the most difficult session to trade had been the 27th of the mini S&P … no reference points respected here , from what I can see …

 

Have a nice day.

 

Michele

[Gordon G. 10]

Dear Torero,

 

I made some trades on the GB (Euro Bund) because I like the way it behaves with MP and because it's liquid.

I like as well DJ Eurostoxx 50 ... DAX is too heavy for me now.

 

I use Global Futures as broker and place trades through Onyx platform (Rosenthal Collins).

I'm sincerely satisfied with them.

However, please note that I'm not a scalper and don't know how it works for high frequency traders.

 

Hope this helps.

 

Best regards.

 

Michele