Think Like a Trader

[bobcollett 10]

You "professional" guys crack me up. On every thread a professional saunters in like a sixth degree blackbelt and criticizes the thread subject, book, setup, etc. and insinuates that it is the path to failure. Douglas would probably say that these boards act as feedback loops for the self proclaimed and I would agree.

 

Dear youngamerican,

You are 100% correct

And its also very clicky.

BUT

If everybody agreed with the post, we would'nt have a forum.

Take your pick

Kind regards

bobc

PS TITZ is the second worst book I ever read.

The worst is Revelations

[MightyMouse 12]

Douglas defines the term "edge" and includes it as one of his 5 fundamental truths. As the OP quotes:

 

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another

 

Now, if a person likes the term "set up" better and wants to substitute it in, then it's only fair that the same definition be kept:

 

4. [A set up] is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another

 

The person who says Douglas's "edge" seems like a "set up" and that "there are plenty set ups which will lead your account to hell if you trade them religiously" is not following Douglas's definition.

 

If you want to point out that discerning such an edge or set up in the market is not as simple as Douglas makes it sound, I think a lot of people can attest to that. But let's not continue the straw man fallacy.

 

For me, the bigger issue is making up a definition of a term and then claiming it as a fundamental truth when it isn't clear to me at all that is the case. It's sort of like defining "marriage" as being between one man and one woman and proclaiming that as a truth.

 

The person who said that is I.

 

A set up is a 61% fib retracement from a high. If you trade this and use his suggested trade management, your account will be drained in time.

 

An edge is knowing if you should take the 61% pullback long or if you should short into it or if you should simply stay away. And, based on what develops after you enter, how long you should stay in. Basically, it is knowing if there are traders in the market who are willing to pay you. If they are not there and you get in or stay in, then you will likely be the one paying

 

I have not read TITZ in while so I am not as studied on it as many here and therefore may be misquoting him by recalling what I thought was negative in the book and that is certainly not fair. Sort of like being asked about an ex wife and the only thing I remember is that she was a bitch. But, if I recall correctly he indicated that he scales out of positions with the first scale coming out just for peace of mind. That may seem like a reasonable strategy for a newbie and it did seem reasonable to be, but later on I realized that it was a guaranteed loss in your account. A guaranteed loss does not give me peace of mind. I then concluded that he really does not trade since no one can trade for long by taking trades that guarantee a loss. Of course you could trade with a guaranteed loss if making money wasn't the objective. Surprisingly, there are lots of traders who trade for other reasons than making money.

 

I also felt that the book focused too much on entry as if all that mattered is the entry and that you were sort of at the mercy of the market gods after you entered. Once again, my ex wife is a bitch and my recollection might be negative. But, my experience has shown me that entry is not everything. I could be wrong and have learned the wrong way to take money from the market.

 

The reason why it is a guaranteed loss, is that he indicates that " to this day" he would scale out of a third of his contracts at 4 ticks and have a 6 tick stop. When you play this out at a 70% success rate and take into account commissions and that the market must go 5 tics to guarantee a 4 tic exit and only 6 tics to give you a 6 tic loss, the $expectancy is about -$4.5 per contract. If the success rate is less than 70%, the loss rate is more. Again, this lead me to my conclusion that he does not trade or more accurately he does not trade profitably which to me translates into he does not trade. However, I do give him kudos for writing a very successful trading book. If your goal is to write a successful trading book, then following his lead is a great direction to take.

 

My statements may anger some; however, that is not my goal. I am offering a short cut to others who may be reading it seeking a solution and are about to sip the cool aid.

[phantom 16]

You "professional" guys crack me up. On every thread a professional saunters in like a sixth degree blackbelt and criticizes ...

 

What an awesome analogy...

[gosu 10]

* * *

 

An edge is knowing if you should take the 61% pullback long or if you should short into it or if you should simply stay away. * * *

 

That is YOUR definition. I am not disagreeing with your definition but it is not what Douglas uses. Douglas's definition of "edge" is akin to an unfair coin. If the coin is rigged toward heads, there would be no concern about any individual toss and every toss ought to be bet on heads. It is a valid point.

 

Now, if your point is that no such unfair coin exists in the market which leads you to reject his definition and insert your own, that would not be a definitional issue.

[MightyMouse 12]

That is YOUR definition. I am not disagreeing with your definition but it is not what Douglas uses. Douglas's definition of "edge" is akin to an unfair coin. If the coin is rigged toward heads, there would be no concern about any individual toss and every toss ought to be bet on heads. It is a valid point.

 

Now, if your point is that no such unfair coin exists in the market which leads you to reject his definition and insert your own, that would not be a definitional issue.

 

The definition I posted is totally my definition. I didn't like his casino edge as it applies to trading. If normal distributions with finite outcomes were possible, then I would agree with him.

[RealDemo 10]

 

A set up is a 61% fib retracement from a high. If you trade this and use his suggested trade management, your account will be drained in time.

 

An edge is knowing if you should take the 61% pullback long or if you should short into it or if you should simply stay away. And, based on what develops after you enter, how long you should stay in. Basically, it is knowing if there are traders in the market who are willing to pay you. If they are not there and you get in or stay in, then you will likely be the one paying

 

TITZ

Trading in the Zone presents a serious psychological approach to becoming a consistent winner in your trading. I do not offer a trading system; I am more interested in showing you how to think in the way necessary to become a profitable trader. I assume that you already have your own system, your own edge. You must learn to trust your edge. The edge means there is a higher probability of one outcome than another.

 

Brett Steenbarger from here: TraderFeed: Walking Through a Trade Setup

10) Note that I'm spending a lot of time sitting and doing nothing other than observing market dynamics and planning out the trade. There are times I'll sit for a very long time, just waiting for one great setup. The goal is not to put on trades; it's to wait for things to line up in your favor, giving you an edge.

 

DbPhoenix (member of TL) from here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/4348-trading-edge-definition.html

An edge is the knowledge proved through research that a particular price pattern or market behavior offers an acceptable level of predictability and risk to reward to provide a consistently profitable outcome over time.

 

I really like this last definition.

[SunTrader 10]

Everyone has an ego. Whoever says they don't lie.

 

But why do so many feel they have to trash another trader, or system seller or book author. Unless that other whatever is an out and out fraud.

 

Mark Douglas' books have value of some sort for any level trader. More so perhaps for struggling, aspiring ones. To say otherwise is just slinging mud.

 

Opinions are like ...holes, everyone has one.

[MightyMouse 12]

Everyone has an ego. Whoever says they don't lie.

 

But why do so many feel they have to trash another trader, or system seller or book author. Unless that other whatever is an out and out fraud.

 

Mark Douglas' books have value of some sort for any level trader. More so perhaps for struggling, aspiring ones. To say otherwise is just slinging mud.

 

Opinions are like ...holes, everyone has one.

 

Your ego is the very last thing you give up before you die. It is impossible to shrink it.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

No matter what forum, no matter what thread, there is USUALLY someone who comes along, EGO IN TOW, and tells the world why the thread starters message, system, method, indicator, etc... is wrong, doesn't work, is B.S., is fraud, etc...

 

The is the second thread (of the 2 I have read so far) in the TL newsletter (in my inbox today) where this has occurred. And to think it's the holiday season - a time of good tidings and well wishes.... LMAO!! :o

 

My favorites are the people who say, "YOU MUST UNDERSTAND PRICE ACTION" or "YOU MUST UNDERSTAND HOW THE MARKET WORKS" but who NEVER explain these in a way that is easy to understand and.

 

 

Happy Holidays

[TheNegotiator 13]

My favorites are the people who say, "YOU MUST UNDERSTAND PRICE ACTION" or "YOU MUST UNDERSTAND HOW THE MARKET WORKS" but who NEVER explain these in a way that is easy to understand and.

 

Very true TRO. The same could be said about anything in trading. This is where the 'Holy Grail' myth comes from. You have people desperate to succeed and others who allude to certain aspects of trading using enticing keywords. The trader who is yet to be consistently successful is sure that these people must hold the secret. But the secret is you must learn and understand and experience things for yourself if you have it in you to be a successful trader. Parroting other people's work is never going to make you deft enough to succeed in the ever changing markets we have. It may help you 'see the light', but then it is down to you and you alone.

[SunTrader 10]

No matter what forum, no matter what thread, there is USUALLY someone who comes along, EGO IN TOW, and tells the world why the thread starters message, system, method, indicator, etc... is wrong, doesn't work, is B.S., is fraud, etc...

 

Happy Holidays

 

Merry, merry to you too Avery.

Edited December 20, 2011 by SunTrader

[TimRacette 11]

I didn't realize I would receive so much #hate from my reference of 'Trading in the Zone'. I was just trying to relay an important occurrence in my own trading where I began to think in terms of in terms of probabilities and look at my trades amongst a sample set instead of individually, that's all.

[RealDemo 10]

C'mon Tim, be brave, you've got a tie on and a smile that says "I've just had sex".

 

Nobody was born with all the facts and truths in their little head even though some like you to believe that they were still in nappies when they placed their first trade.

 

As somebody pointed out to me the other day, there is some great info on this site, they're right, but it's all a question of filtering.

 

Don't take stuff as "hate" unless someones being up front and personal with you. Some people really don't like this book and that's cool, other people (grown-ups) reading this thread or any other for that matter can look after themselves and draw their own conclusion or not.

 

It's fairly easy for the successful 10% to quickly become elitist as there are not that many of them, but remember not all of that 10% are going to be excellent traders a lot of them are just "ok traders" who think they've cracked it.

[zdo 20]

I didn't realize I would receive so much #hate from my reference of 'Trading in the Zone'. I was just trying to relay an important occurrence in my own trading where I began to think in terms of in terms of probabilities and look at my trades amongst a sample set instead of individually, that's all.

 

… and thank you Tim … discussed this earlier in the thread – I’ve watched many noobs think they get this but they really don’t get it… ever

 

:haha:… as for dealing with future ‘flames’

Future Riot Shields Will Suffocate Protestors with Low Frequency Speakers

 

coming to a thread near you…

First Amendment Under Attack: 18 Examples Of How They Are Coming For Our Free Speech - BlackListedNews.com

[Qiman 10]

I didn't realize I would receive so much #hate from my reference of 'Trading in the Zone'. I was just trying to relay an important occurrence in my own trading where I began to think in terms of in terms of probabilities and look at my trades amongst a sample set instead of individually, that's all.

 

Hi Tim,

 

As you said in your original post, this book for you at least was an important key to start thinking more in probabilities and look at a larger sample size. And that was the way I took your original post, a sharing of what helped you on your own trading journey.

 

I started in the trading arena in 1995, but I too got some useful concepts and ideas out of that book, I actually bought it ages ago when it was just a limited issue manuscript and Douglas wasn't sure it it would even become a book.

 

When posting here I always keep in mind that experienced traders can be some of the most independent minded, feisty and challenging personalities around. Trading attracts a lot of people who have a hard time fitting into "The System." Many have also read so much trading BS over the years, and a certain percentage wasted money on all kinds of "secrets" and "ground-breaking" systems, so grizzled veteran traders can be pretty quick on the attack. Within such an arena it is a must to keep our senses of humor, laugh off some of the more absurd comments, and not take much of anything personally--just about everybody gets beat up around here from time to time!

[TheNegotiator 13]

coming to a thread near you…

First Amendment Under Attack: 18 Examples Of How They Are Coming For Our Free Speech - BlackListedNews.com

 

Awesome. Maybe we'll have to start encoding our forum messages old style. Hmm, I can't be too far away from Bletchley Park(somewhat ironic though)! Although I think they'd pretty much have to just shut the internet down in fairness. There's too much going on to properly monitor the internet fully. Oh no though, what about the Algos? Skynet here we come :\ !

[MightyMouse 12]

I didn't realize I would receive so much #hate from my reference of 'Trading in the Zone'. I was just trying to relay an important occurrence in my own trading where I began to think in terms of in terms of probabilities and look at my trades amongst a sample set instead of individually, that's all.

 

Simply because someone disagrees with a view does not make it hate. You, in fact, may hate to read someone disagreeing with your view, but that is an internal issue. Much is learned through disagreement.

[Qiman 10]

Mighty Mouse wrote:

 

An edge is knowing if you should take the 61% pullback long or if you should short into it or if you should simply stay away. And, based on what develops after you enter, how long you should stay in. Basically, it is knowing if there are traders in the market who are willing to pay you. If they are not there and you get in or stay in, then you will likely be the one paying

 

This is extremely important. In the mechanical stages of development for a trader, one would automatically just take the trade due to the probabilities assigned to such a situation. Is it possible to advance beyond a mere mechanical taking of trades which appear to have good probabilities? I believe it is possible, and desirable.

 

In my mind, as one advances in skill from much experience with huge amounts of screen time, there are going to be subtle clues unique to many trading opportunities. For instance, the context may be out of the ordinary, sentiment may be very volatile, there might be an unusually low volume in the contract that day, the contract has been acting odd, something just doesn't seem right, etc. etc.

 

And beyond this, professionals in a wide variety of fields develop a sixth sense for situations, where they simply know what to do, without being able to explain it so much by words at the moment. The decision is instant. This happens in sports, warfare, martial arts, and wilderness survival as just some examples.

 

When i am in the wilderness alone with just a knife for a week, my senses become much more acute to subtle energies and clues about the environment. It may sound like BS to some of you, but at times I have hiked all day wearing a blindfold, and have been able to then get back to my pack or my camp. And the sensing of all kinds of dynamics and life-forms goes up dramatically as one gets into the Zone and the chattering logical mind takes a backseat.

 

Though trading does need logic, reason, probabilities, it is not limited to those alone. My goal is to bring the kind of sensing that I do in the wilderness and martial arts more powerfully into my futures trading, where I am not just sensing probabilities with my eyes via charts, but due to years of experience I sense other more subtle energetic clues, and act instantly.

[joshdance 10]

When i am in the wilderness alone with just a knife for a week, my senses become much more acute to subtle energies and clues about the environment. It may sound like BS to some of you, but at times I have hiked all day wearing a blindfold, and have been able to then get back to my pack or my camp. And the sensing of all kinds of dynamics and life-forms goes up dramatically as one gets into the Zone and the chattering logical mind takes a backseat.

 

This is a very interesting idea. You may be a little out there, but my personal BS-o-meter is reading low when I read your post Just curious, you kill game and cook it on a fire you make? Like the good ol' days?

[joshdance 10]

My favorites are the people who say, "YOU MUST UNDERSTAND PRICE ACTION" or "YOU MUST UNDERSTAND HOW THE MARKET WORKS" but who NEVER explain these in a way that is easy to understand and.

 

Perhaps that's because everyone's view of the market is internalized in a different way. I can explain how I see it all I want, but it really has to be internalized by the listener. I've heard some explanations from people and was convinced that they knew what they were doing, but their explanations simply did not jive with me. We each have our own perception of the world and the market. Unfortunately, very often those who begin threads claiming to have some special insight, indicator, or system, are trying to sell something or boost their own ego. Perhaps this is what turns off so many. Not saying that's the case here of course, but it is often the case.

[gosu 10]

* * *

 

My favorites are the people who say, "YOU MUST UNDERSTAND PRICE ACTION" or "YOU MUST UNDERSTAND HOW THE MARKET WORKS" but who NEVER explain these in a way that is easy to understand and.

* * *

 

Hmm. OK, I'll give it a shot:

 

Markets go up. Markets go down. Never in a straight line, however. Markets also go sideways, also not in a straight line. These movements occur simultaneously on a multitude of "fractals" but not necessarily in the same direction.

 

On up and down moves, the market will "retrace" some part of the move and then continue. If it doesn't continue, the market will move in the other direction, which will also retrace some part of the move before continuing, or go sideways.

 

On sideways moves, the market will continue to go sideways until it "breaks out" in an up or down move. See previous paragraph.

 

There, that's all there is to it. Nice and easy. Now you can never say an easy to understand explanation is never given.

 

You're welcome. Now go make a million dollars.

Edited December 20, 2011 by gosu

[TimRacette 11]

Haha right on MM, I dig it.

[MightyMouse 12]

Haha right on MM, I dig it.

 

I wonder why that post was deleted.

[RealDemo 10]

When i am in the wilderness alone with just a knife for a week, my senses become much more acute to subtle energies and clues about the environment. It may sound like BS to some of you, but at times I have hiked all day wearing a blindfold, and have been able to then get back to my pack or my camp.

 

....yes it does... I mean how could it not?

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Hmm. OK, I'll give it a shot:

 

Markets go up. Markets go down. Never in a straight line, however. Markets also go sideways, also not in a straight line. These movements occur simultaneously on a multitude of "fractals" but not necessarily in the same direction.

 

On up and down moves, the market will "retrace" some part of the move and then continue. If it doesn't continue, the market will move in the other direction, which will also retrace some part of the move before continuing, or go sideways.

 

On sideways moves, the market will continue to go sideways until it "breaks out" in an up or down move. See previous paragraph.

 

There, that's all there is to it. Nice and easy. Now you can never say an easy to understand explanation is never given.

 

You're welcome. Now go make a million dollars.

 

Price does NOT move sideways. For price to MOVE, it has to CHANGE. QED.