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The biggest leap forward in my trading came when I began to think like a trader. This important realization was a result of training my brain to think in terms of probabilities. The best book hands down (for me at least) that helped me think this way was Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas.

 

Thinking in probabilities did a lot more for me than just help analyze my trades. It allowed me to trade with more confidence because I knew the likely statistical outcome of a series of trades. (As a side note you can see what I do each night as part of my nightly homework here).

 

I’d like to pull from some of Mark Douglas’s work in this post to help you better understand how to think like a trader.

 

poker-hand-chips.jpg

 

Think in Sample Sizes

Looking at the markets in terms of probabilities is extremely important, both to help you understand your edge and to calm your emotions from trade to trade. I like to think in sample sizes of 20 trades. I am not looking at my profit/loss for the day or week; rather I am monitoring my p/l for the last 20 trades.

 

Each trade you make is simply one of thousands of trades that you will make over the course of your trading. If you keep this in mind and limit your risk on every trade then mentally there is no need to fret over one or two losing trades, or even a string of losing trades.

 

Monitor your last 20 trades. What is your worst string of 20 trades? What is your best string of 20 trades? The numbers may surprise you.

 

Eliminate the Emotional Risk

Thinking in terms of probabilities also helps remove the emotional risk of trading. Mark Douglas talks about the 5 Fundamental Truths, they are as follows…

1. Anything can happen

2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another

5. Every moment in the market is unique

 

When you train your mind to think in this way, the emotional stress and fear of pulling the trigger diminish. You become less concerned with the outcome of each individual trade and more concerned with how it fits into the larger statistical set.

Become an Observer

Think about how objective we are when observing the markets with no money on the line. This is the state of mind we are looking to create throughout the entire trade. Win, lose, or scratch. One exercise I find useful is to visualize yourself standing just behind yourself, watching over your shoulder as you trade.

 

Does this trade meet your entry criteria? Is this a trade taken out of boredom? Are you sure you want to break your rules? These are some questions the observing self would ask your conscious self. Once you’ve identified your edge, practice executing your trades the same way, each and every time. Use this observer exercise to help keep you in check and remain disciplined.

 

The 7 Principles of Consistency

Mark Douglas talks about 7 principles which help beginning traders develop into consistent winners over time. The following are his list of guiding principles…

1. I objectively identify my edges

2. I predefine the risk of every trade

3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade

4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation

5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me

6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors

7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles. I never violate them.

 

So to think like a trader means to think in terms of probabilities, identify your edge, execute your trades the same way each and every time taking every setup that first your criteria and then analyze your trades not individually, but in sample sizes. Doing these things (over time), can help develop a level of consistency trading the markets.

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Perhaps Douglas should get more credit (or blame) for the current prominence of the "psychology" of trading as separate from other aspects.

 

TITZ is OK. The analog in chess literature is not "Think Like a Grandmaster" by Kotov, but something akin to "Chess for Beginners" by Horowitz.

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I find that I'm constantly internalizing trading ideas while off doing other things away from the screen. Often I go back and re-read books like this (along with the Market Wizards Series, Reminiscences and Pit Bull to name a few more). I always end up pulling out more great nuggets.

 

Sometimes it's reading something at the right time when you're in the right frame of mind. I think that was the case with Trading in the Zone. After reading it a few times, and at different stages of my trading I would absorb different pieces of information.

 

p.s. I enjoy reading your comments MM, lots of insight, thanks.

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I know this is blasphemy but I have to say, I thought "Trading in the Zone" was a ridiculous book. Every time I have read something by Mark Douglas or listened to one of his recordings I come away thinking I have just wasted a bunch of my time.

I am not denying the importance of proper mindset and control of emotions or psychology or whatever you want to call it, but that book is not the place to get insight into the matter.

It's a great example of someone making money off wannabee traders with books and speaking tours.

my:2c:

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I know this is blasphemy but I have to say, I thought "Trading in the Zone" was a ridiculous book. Every time I have read something by Mark Douglas or listened to one of his recordings I come away thinking I have just wasted a bunch of my time.

I am not denying the importance of proper mindset and control of emotions or psychology or whatever you want to call it, but that book is not the place to get insight into the matter.

It's a great example of someone making money off wannabee traders with books and speaking tours.

my:2c:

 

When I first read it, I thought it was good, then as I learned more and more from practical trading experience, I realized that his main audience is fledgling traders. If you are lost and need help I suppose learning that you have to be in the right mindset is good, but if you are lost and need help, you should really go do something else because there are a lot of traders who are not lost and do not need help and they will steal your lunch right from under your nose. There has to be a point where you call it quits. In life, perseverance is important. In trading, perseverance will kill you.

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plus often going back to books for ideas, or reinforcement of crap (or good stuff ) is often worthwhile in itself. Sometimes its just the one or two things a book resonates with you that is all it needs.

Look at market wizards.....a great book, and yet full of DIFFERENT styles, ideas and personalities and yet we can all learn a little bit from each of them.

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Douglas' "trading in the zone" is a good beginner book. If you reread it, you understand why he writes and does not trade.

 

...what am I missing? I've read it at least 4 times, why doesn't he trade?

 

When anyone mentions this book it often attracts comments that belittle it from "pro-traders" and often they never say why.

 

...I'd be interested in a discussion of why and where it lacks, whatever it lacks.

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more focused on relaying what's resonated and worked for me
Thanks.

 

JEHS, No, it’s not “blasphemy”. I can see how MD’s (and others’) material can become trite to experienced traders. It's called the Apex Effect... However, I’ve noticed when I discount this level of trader development, somewhere I have confused ‘cognitive grasp’ with ‘deep mastery’… I observe same tendency in others too…

 

It's not so apparent in the books, but MD's material simultaneously ranges from beginner material for beginners to master material for masters...

 

Once a year, usually in March, I still go back and substitute his tapes for music during trading sessions and skim his books (whether I think I need to or not.) Doing this brings variable (and diminishing) returns. But invariably, I still get a fresh insight into some beliefs and / or biases and / or tendencies and sometimes new leverage for dealing with them... prevents the Apex Effect...

 

btw someone mentioned "he writes and does not trade"… actually he does trade… trades selective fibs… akin to Pesavento’s style…

Edited by zdo

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Thanks.

 

JEHS, No, it’s not “blasphemy”. I can see how MD’s (and others’) material can become trite to experienced traders. It's called the Apex Effect... However, I’ve noticed when I discount this level of trader development, somewhere I have confused ‘cognitive grasp’ with ‘deep mastery’… I observe same tendency in others too…

 

It's not so apparent in the books, but MD's material simultaneously ranges from beginner material for beginners to master material for masters...

 

Once a year, usually in March, I still go back and substitute his tapes for music during trading sessions and skim his books (whether I think I need to or not.) Doing this brings variable (and diminishing) returns. But invariably, I still get a fresh insight into some beliefs and / or biases and / or tendencies and sometimes new leverage for dealing with them... prevents the Apex Effect...

 

btw someone mentioned "he writes and does not trade"… actually he does trade… trades selective fibs… akin to Pesavento’s style…

 

TITZ will lead a lot of traders into thinking that all you need to do is find an edge, which is not clearly defined, and trade it and you will take money from the market in a similar fashion to the way a casino takes money from players. Nothing can be more misleading, especially if you know how a casino really works.

 

The edge he speaks of seems more like a set up than an edge. There are plenty set ups which will lead your account to hell if you trade them religiously.The book gives the trader hope, but I think it leads him down the wrong path.

 

I do not know if he actually trades or not. I made the assumption that he does not. Shame on me.

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TITZ will lead a lot of traders into thinking that all you need to do is find an edge...

 

 

Hm, seems to me about 90% of new traders show up already thinking that.

TITZ (and 98% of books, the internet publishing, and forum posts also) may reinforce that thinking, but “lead”?

 

You’re right, TITZ doesn’t really fish out “edge” properly. Positive expectancy across a stat significant sample, etc… while these concepts and terminologies click cognitively to sufficient degree for most, they don’t ever become ‘real’ for most. For many, the ways in which he describes 'risk acceptance' will also make sense, but never really click...

 

TITZ misses covering one important point for sure. "Edge" management. MD doesn't really get down to the imbedded emotional components involved in real 'probability thinking'.

In every “sample” of trades, there are going to be one or two that present unusual challenges that most are not prepared to handle… for most beginners, it never really gets to “across the whole sample” because of those one or two make or break trades etc etc.

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TITZ is a book written for the losers in the trading game. In that regard the message is not that useful to people outside the general population of losers.

 

The gist of the message is that people lose because of their mental orientation towards the market and trading. That's hardly a revelation. However, Douglas prescribes a remedy that has as its ingredients his 5 fundamental truths.

 

Many people on trading sites extol the book's virtues. No doubt the message is effective in reaching its intended audience.

 

But how useful are these "truths"? Are they even truths at all? Does it matter?

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All in all, I thought TITZ was a good as a beginner. I Suppose TITZ could still be useful to many traders. Two things I know for sure is that TITZ are harder to get when you are older, but it is still exciting to talk about TITZ.

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Positive expectancy across a stat significant sample, etc…

 

Terminology like 'expectancy', 'edge', 'profit factor' can be very misleading for new traders.

 

The probabilities in market, whether they are about a pattern or setup or strategy, are NOT definite- they are estimation only. (in practice they are not even estimation, turn out to be wild guesses).

 

The method of new trader will be constantly evolving, every 50 trades or so. His method will evolve irrespective he is making money or losing, simply because he will be learning a lot about market behavior and trading in general.

 

How do you expect a person to *statistically* define 'edge' in such situation.

 

I agree with MM that trading a setup religiously is the sure way to hell for a beginner trader.

 

TITZ will lead a lot of traders into thinking that all you need to do is find an edge, which is not clearly defined, and trade it and you will take money from the market in a similar fashion to the way a casino takes money from players. Nothing can be more misleading, especially if you know how a casino really works.

The edge he speaks of seems more like a set up than an edge. There are plenty set ups which will lead your account to hell if you trade them religiously.The book gives the trader hope, but I think it leads him down the wrong path.

 

I do not know if he actually trades or not. I made the assumption that he does not. Shame on me.

Edited by Do Or Die

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You "professional" guys crack me up. On every thread a professional saunters in like a sixth degree blackbelt and criticizes the thread subject, book, setup, etc. and insinuates that it is the path to failure. Douglas would probably say that these boards act as feedback loops for the self proclaimed and I would agree.

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Douglas defines the term "edge" and includes it as one of his 5 fundamental truths. As the OP quotes:

 

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another

 

Now, if a person likes the term "set up" better and wants to substitute it in, then it's only fair that the same definition be kept:

 

4. [A set up] is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another

 

The person who says Douglas's "edge" seems like a "set up" and that "there are plenty set ups which will lead your account to hell if you trade them religiously" is not following Douglas's definition.

 

If you want to point out that discerning such an edge or set up in the market is not as simple as Douglas makes it sound, I think a lot of people can attest to that. But let's not continue the straw man fallacy.

 

For me, the bigger issue is making up a definition of a term and then claiming it as a fundamental truth when it isn't clear to me at all that is the case. It's sort of like defining "marriage" as being between one man and one woman and proclaiming that as a truth.

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...what am I missing? I've read it at least 4 times, why doesn't he trade?

 

When anyone mentions this book it often attracts comments that belittle it from "pro-traders" and often they never say why.

 

...I'd be interested in a discussion of why and where it lacks, whatever it lacks.

 

ok, how about this......

 

 

 

in TITZ, one of the main lesson for the new trader is that 'the market can do anything at any time'. this is bullsh!t.

 

why?

 

markets work in phases. they have to in order to absorb order flow. markets trend, they reach a climax, they correct, then they balance, then they trend again. its a cycle. sometimes the balance between trends is missed as the market reaches its climax and the correction develops into a new trend.

 

Also, volume activity will tend to lead price. or rather, price reacts to volume. it has to. there is no other way it can be.

 

to suggest 'anything can happen at any time' implies (to me) a sense of randomness in the market. randomness is a term we use for something we dont understand.

 

so the douglas idea is flawed. it may appear to be great for the new trader, but i believe it will in fact act as an excuse mechanism for the newbie when he gets stopped, rather than encourage him to find out why he got stopped out. its a cop out.

 

as for douglas' other book, that too was even worse bullsh!t. i just developed a phobia about dog bites that i never had before reading that book. go figure.

 

imo, if you want a good book on trading mindset, read brett steenbarger enhancing trader performance. this is written by a psychologist who has an interest in trading, not an author who says hes a trader to try and get kudos.

 

the brett book is for people who want to continually progress their trading, not for a 'nice read' by the fireside as many peoples 'favourite trading books' seem to be/ it's tough work and most wont be bothered with the effort involved when they realise to get good at this gig is going to take more effort than reading a couple of cosy douglas books.

Edited by TheDude

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ok, how about this......

 

 

 

in TITZ, one of the main lesson for the new trader is that 'the market can do anything at any time'. this is bullsh!t.

 

why?

 

markets work in phases. they have to in order to absorb order flow. markets trend, they reach a climax, they correct, then they balance, then they trend again. its a cycle. sometimes the balance between trends is missed as the market reaches its climax and the correction develops into a new trend.

 

Also, volume activity will tend to lead price. or rather, price reacts to volume. it has to. there is no other way it can be.

 

to suggest 'anything can happen at any time' implies (to me) a sense of randomness in the market. randomness is a term we use for something we dont understand.

 

so the douglas idea is flawed. it may appear to be great for the new trader, but i believe it will in fact act as an excuse mechanism for the newbie when he gets stopped, rather than encourage him to find out why he got stopped out. its a cop out.

 

as for douglas' other book, that too was even worse bullsh!t. i just developed a phobia about dog bites that i never had before reading that book. go figure.

 

imo, if you want a good book on trading mindset, read brett steenbarger enhancing trader performance. this is written by a psychologist who has an interest in trading, not an author who says hes a trader to try and get kudos.

 

the brett book is for people who want to continually progress their trading, not for a 'nice read' by the fireside as many peoples 'favourite trading books' seem to be/ it's tough work and most wont be bothered with the effort involved when they realise to get good at this gig is going to take more effort than reading a couple of cosy douglas books.

 

Your comments are spot on about Douglas's "anything can happen" fundamental truth. I think his motivation comes from a correct stance: to convince the reader that predicting is unnecessary. However, the statement itself overstates the case and I don't think he believes it himself. Consider how he defines "edge" - "a higher probability of ONE THING HAPPENING OVER ANOTHER." If he really believed that anything can happen at anytime, the definition would need to be altered to "a particular thing happening, period" or "one thing happening over all other things."

 

Your recommendation of Steenbarger's book is interesting. I am one of those people you describe as wanting to continually progress in my trading, so I do put in the time to try to keep up to date with the current trading literature. What's so good about it in your opinion? I read it and was rather put off by his unending praises for Woodie's CCI Club.

 

I find there are no books being written for expert traders nowadays. Probably there is no money in it. Of past books that are accessible, Gann's books come the closest in my opinion, with the exception perhaps of "Tunnel Through the Air."

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This is a little bizarre guys. Here are a bunch of people who I've known to be intelligent and may also be good traders. But you're slagging Douglas off for something he doesn't purport to be / do.

 

I read the book 10 years ago when I was new and sort of got it but sort of didn't. Then I have reread both books in the last couple of years and 100% get them. One of the differences in between is that I went from interday trading to interminute and intersecond trading and discovered a bunch of things about myself that were not present on longer timeframes. Things he talks about and attempts to address. Another is that I've run into a number of people who had valid edges (read setup, exit, management package) and never turned them into money.

 

The thing he's slagged off for seems to be not telling people how to do the trading bit. But if you note, he's up front about that and he does define some things that are important:

- your edge must have positive expectancy

- in the mechanical stage it must be so clearly defined that you can trade it without thought or hesitation.

So he clarifies key point for a training setup. Then, at least in the first book, he offered that anyone who didn't have such an edge could email him and he'd refer them for such an edge and potentially training if required.

 

I was new to day trading so I emailed him and sure to his word I got an email back with some advice (setups and exit disciplines plus possible trading) that I didn't take at the time but knowing what I know now would have worked.

 

So, the package was there.

 

**************

 

Someone also gave the traditional "hes an author not a trader" response. Not true; its a while since the books and he went back to trading although he does still pick up bucks from books, tapes, and the occasional seminar.

 

**************

 

I do agree that in terms of psychological techniques to address trading issues steenbargers books offer a lot of extra tricks. Although I think they would be well read as idea's for working within a framework like Titz or Tdt. If one is looking for books that address that area and provide extra technique for people having trouble following the learning process from Titz, a guy who primarily works with people with Obsessive Compulsive disorders wrote a book that might be even better than steenbargers:

 

- You are not your Brain by Jeffrey Schwartz MD

 

 

**************

 

But lets stop slagging Mark for stuff that isn't supposed to be in his (good but boringly written) books but was offered by him free to those who ask.

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imo, if you want a good book on trading mindset, read brett steenbarger enhancing trader performance. this is written by a psychologist who has an interest in trading, not an author who says hes a trader to try and get kudos.

.

 

Also, The Investor's Quotient, by Jake Bernstein. I've got the 2nd edition. Jake's a trader and a professional psychologist, and this book on overcoming psychological issues in trading is phenomenal.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RealDemo »

...what am I missing? I've read it at least 4 times, why doesn't he trade?

 

When anyone mentions this book it often attracts comments that belittle it from "pro-traders" and often they never say why.

 

...I'd be interested in a discussion of why and where it lacks, whatever it lacks.

 

ok, how about this......

 

 

in TITZ, one of the main lesson for the new trader is that 'the market can do anything at any time'. this is bullsh!t.

 

Quote from his book TITZ:

 

"These behavior patterns are observable and quantifiable, and they repeat themselves with statistical reliability. Technical analysis is a method that organizes this collective behavior into identifiable patterns that can give a clear indication of when there is a greater probability of one thing happening over another."

 

This would seem at odds with that.

 

 

imo, if you want a good book on trading mindset, read brett steenbarger enhancing trader performance. this is written by a psychologist who has an interest in trading, not an author who says hes a trader to try and get kudos.

 

Quote from his book TITZ:

"By 1981, I was thoroughly disgusted with my inability to trade effectively while holding another job, so I moved to Chicago and got a job as a broker with Merrill Lynch at the Chicago Board of Trade. How did I do? Well, within nine months of moving to Chicago, I had lost nearly everything I owned. My losses were the result of both my trading activities and my exorbitant life style, which demanded that I make a lot of money as a trader. From these early experiences as a trader, I learned an enormous amount about myself, and about the role of psychology in trading."

 

Really you think this is an attempt at attracting kudos?

 

I've read Brett Steenbarger and learnt plenty of stuff from him too.

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Perhaps some are not understanding "anything can happen at any time." This is true in every aspect of life. There is an element of chaos and randomness at every level. However, you organize your life around certain repeatable events.

 

For example, statistically your kid gets off the school bus at 4:00 every day for the last month, +/- 10 minutes. You plan to be there to meet the child every day at that time. However, one day the bus does not arrive. The bus had a flat tire. The randomness of the moment struck, and the expected event did not occur. Does that mean that tomorrow you expect the bus to not arrive? Is it now not statistically significant that the bus has arrived 99% of the time at 4:00 +/- 10 minutes, because ONE major deviation occurred?

 

Trading with any basis for success is dependent upon the trader believing that he has the ability to place a trade and profit from the market going his direction more often than not (or more correctly, by a larger amount than when he is wrong). I believe this is practically based on experience, and cannot be based practically on back testing, though that is another can of worms. If the trader did not believe this, he would not expect to make money and should not trade.

 

Yet, we also know that the randomness inherent in all things can cause an event in the market which will be completely out of the ordinary and not meet the expectation of the trader at any moment. This can be a huge bank getting pissed off and selling; it can be a catastrophic political or social event; it can be a computer which has a flaw in it which does the wrong thing (flash crash); it can be anything.

 

So each event is independent, yet, over a statistically significant sample size (this will vary depending on your needs), a probability can be determined.

 

That being said, I abhor the "it's just math, place your trade regardless" crap. If someone wants pure mechanical performance, write a f***ing black box and go do something else. The human element makes it possible to see that, for example, while 70% of the time this should work based on the past, it likely won't right now. Some people will say that's screwing up the probabilities. Well, so be it, and we just have to agree to disagree. But if someone is SO confident in their "edge" or "set up" (boy I hate that term) that they ALWAYS take it, then program it, and go play golf. Seriously.

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      Does it mean that you are an expert just because you make a lot of profit? The amount of profit cannot be used to measure the value of a trader. Yes, you must be doing something right if you are making a frequent profit. However, that does not determine if you are an expert or not just by your profit. This is quite a common misunderstanding in the forex industry.
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      What differentiates the experts and the beginners is that experts know when the opportunity has come and knows to take advantage of it. Making profit by luck is possible, and yes luck is also very important. But can you profit with luck every time?
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The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement". Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised. Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products. The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.   USDJPY 5-Minute Chart   US Economic and Employment Data The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting. The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation. USDJPY Technical Analysis Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.     The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674. Key Takeaway Points: Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
    • Date: 1st April 2025.   Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?   Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend? Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold. Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response. Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.   XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart   The Weakness In The US Dollar Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness. Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country. Can Gold Maintain Momentum? When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price. In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US. The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price. Key Takeaway Points: Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions. Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand. Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation. Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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