2012 Forex Trading Journal

[RealDemo 10]

Ok, my mornings trading cancelled due to external forces.

 

So on the pound the channel break came last night and turned into a TA dream.

I can't talk about this as a 'real' trade as I wasn't there to take it but with my retrospective goggles fitted firmly over my eyes I can give it a go.

 

My strategy involves making a decision over trading a trendline breakout or fading it. GBP I've found responds quite well to fading if given enough reasons.

 

Weighing up the probability of a TL break failure my reasons would be this:

 

1- the pound is weak against $ at the moment

2- 5480 holding price back yesterday

3- DP possible resistance

4- bull channel lower TL retest

5- bearish TL from recent high

 

......wow these goggles are great.....

 

 

....as I type crying into my gruel.... massive dollar strength coming in to the market.

[RealDemo 10]

Today I gather yet more evidence that I remain plankton like before the mighty whale market.

 

I was geared up today that what ever else gives out it wouldn't be my execution of the plan.

Well the first trade was taken, not good direction. Second trade triggered by the closing of the first, good direction but........ user error.

 

Why I placed the stop there I do not know, it's not it's place, but it was found. :doh:

 

So shocked and annoyed I decided to abort. An entry in the NY session with the pin off the pivot would have been nice but I was away from my computer.

 

100 odd pips here would have lifted moral but it was not to be..... on to the next, it's all experience.

 

Here is the chart in all it's resplendence.....

 

 

[RealDemo 10]

So going into week 3 my account is down 2%. I've learnt a lot, the biggest problem I think is my severe lack of patients, I'm going to have to get over this if I'm going to have any hope of progressing.

 

I know, if, buts and maybe's don't belong in the real world..... but..... if I had just shorted EURUSD at the start and not looked at my computer until today..... I'd be up around 300pips :crap:

 

...back to the real world.... :missy:

[RealDemo 10]

 

This triple A thing has put the boot in. It's like every time the sun breaks through a chink in the clouds over Europe a wind whips up and blows in more cloud.

 

Is this year destined to be a 2011 'take 2'?

[Obsidian 10]

There are times technical and fundamental analysis may be useless and the market goes where it wants to go. I like this saying: "The news doesn't make the market, rather the market makes the news"

[RealDemo 10]

No trades yesterday or today.

 

This choppyness is a killer for me so I'm going to sit on my hands and wait for better opportunities.

 

[RealDemo 10]

So this week my account hasn't moved because I haven't moved.

 

Looking to get some positions on this week. Eur pulling back breaking out of it's bear channel, (not shown)

 

Is this just pulling the rubber band back more so we can shoot off to 1.16?

 

Here's some levels I'm looking at on the bullish side of things.

 

[Obsidian 10]

I think 1.2800/1.2850 will hold this week unless we don't any surprises..Fed policy meeting starts tomorrow and eu meeting on wednesday...

[RealDemo 10]

I think 1.2800/1.2850 will hold this week unless we don't any surprises..Fed policy meeting starts tomorrow and eu meeting on wednesday...

 

Last weeks COT report showing a lot of commercial buying, I hope they continue, I've got a gap trade that I'd like to add to.

 

USDCHF dropping perfectly out of Asia's tight little range...... and what a lovely little range that is.

 

 

[RealDemo 10]

Took this short as price raced into the pivot. A support turned resistance level. To be honest this is late in the day for me..... uumming and aarring about what to do, (I know that's not good) also got a eurjpy short trade struggling to survive as well.

 

[RealDemo 10]

So the end of January comes around and the scores on the doors are -8.5% on the account.

 

Personally a difficult start to the year but not completely unexpected considering my level of skill.

 

Certainly I have a much better idea of what taking monetary risk really feels like. I've had very little exposure to gambling in my life so putting money behind a conviction is a pretty new experience.

 

The theory, which is simple enough, has been difficult to execute consistently, and it's been shocking just how far I can stray in this respect.

 

Recognising certain things, whatever that may be, patterns, price action etc. in real time and acting on that information is where I need to focus. The deceptive nature of how price action forms is intriguing, and it's understandable that people look for confirmation all the time.

 

Here's to better results in February.

[Obsidian 10]

So the end of January comes around and the scores on the doors are -8.5% on the account...The theory, which is simple enough, has been difficult to execute consistently, and it's been shocking just how far I can stray in this respect.....

 

We don't risk any real money in theory

It was 1999-2000 when I started trading stocks. First year I lost 50% of my account, then it took 2 years to learn how to trade and gain what I lost. We learn from our mistakes as well...

[RealDemo 10]

We don't risk any real money in theory

It was 1999-2000 when I started trading stocks. First year I lost 50% of my account, then it took 2 years to learn how to trade and gain what I lost. We learn from our mistakes as well...

 

....yes, the statistics are not in my favour, and as you say the regaining of lost ground is a steep hill to climb.

 

I'm surprised that the difference between demo and real is so large, maybe it's just me. I'm really not playing big, I mean 2 grand is really laughable. :haha:

 

I hope to learn from the mistakes I make..... I've got nearly an A4 side of notes from this months trading to make sure that I remember all of them (mistakes) and then very consciously try to force a change of habit.

 

One example, and it's one of the larger problems for me is hesitation. Even with all parameter gauges reading 'good' I can still hover in limbo.

[Obsidian 10]

....yes, the statistics are not in my favour, and as you say the regaining of lost ground is a steep hill to climb.

I'm surprised that the difference between demo and real is so large, maybe it's just me. I'm really not playing big, I mean 2 grand is really laughable. :haha:

I hope to learn from the mistakes I make..... I've got nearly an A4 side of notes from this months trading to make sure that I remember all of them (mistakes) and then very consciously try to force a change of habit.

One example, and it's one of the larger problems for me is hesitation. Even with all parameter gauges reading 'good' I can still hover in limbo.

 

Trading is like a marathon, not a race though. Reach the finish line and don't care about the ones who passed you.

It may take a year for you to gain what you lost but does it really matter? Once you figure out how to beat the market, you will start making money.

If you increase trading size to gain faster, you make another mistake by forgetting money/risk management...keep it slow and constant...you will see that you feel more comfortable...

[RealDemo 10]

Trading is like a marathon, not a race though. Reach the finish line and don't care about the ones who passed you.

It may take a year for you to gain what you lost but does it really matter? Once you figure out how to beat the market, you will start making money.

If you increase trading size to gain faster, you make another mistake by forgetting money/risk management...keep it slow and constant...you will see that you feel more comfortable...

 

I think you may be over simplifying things with platitudes, but I get your point and appreciate your comment.

 

Trading is a performance activity, we can't learn from our mistakes if we don't care about them.

[RealDemo 10]

 

Quite like the idea of trading a Dollar index, this one turned out nice and reversed in it's channel.

[RealDemo 10]

 

London on the hard sell today. I took the option of trading this USD index again short as it failed to hold on to the swing high on the 4hourly.

 

Exited at channel low, ADR very high and ADP news, could drop more obviously but I've got my generous slice so I'm out till the next time.

[ajaxfinancial 10]

Thanks a lot nice post.keep it good posting like this.

 

Thank you,

[RealDemo 10]

Been on a bit of a thinking holiday.

 

Thunk a lot.

 

Forex, it's like a greased eel.

 

Back at it next week to cast my hook into the waters.

[RealDemo 10]

I should have chosen to watch some paint dry today, it would have been a thrill in comparison to this market.

 

Got squeezed out of a cable short @5796 early trying to fade something that wasn't in a fading mood.

 

USDJPY breaking 77.51 range low now, might look for a retest short there but it's a bit late in the day for me.

[RealDemo 10]

Rock & Roll Thursday.......

 

Got long USDJPY 78.25..... want to please try and hang on......pretty please

 

Short CAD @ 1.0040.... f@uk I love these ones, no pissing about.

 

S&P wtf!!! yesterday it was buried, today we're off to the moon!!

[RealDemo 10]

This journal has ground to a halt due to lack of time and commitment.

 

Work and family has left none spare, so I may as well just put a full stop here.

[svb70 10]

Dude, stopping journal or stopping trading? Every trading error you have logged is exactly what every other trader goes through. You have invested a lot of time into learning to trade and maybe are at the hurdle we all have to face (usually repeatedly). its frustrating because we know what we need to do, but find it difficult to implement in real time. Its always easy in hindsight.

 

From what you have written, here are some objective observations.

 

1. Learn to control emotions. Try and do this by really accepting your risk. If you put on a trade and then nervously wait to see if it wins that is gambling. If you truly accept that every trade can lose and trade according to a backtested strategy with acceptable risk then all individual trades are insignificant. Its what happens in the long term that matters. You "simply" ensure that your wins are bigger than your losers.

2. Confidence. Are you really confident with your trade plan? do you know how your strategy performs when backtested against years worth of data?

3. Patience. You want to win and you want to win now. Don't we all, but we learn to take what the market gives us. You have a trade strategy. Your trade strategy defines your set-ups. You only trade when the set-ups show themselves.Correct me if I'm wrong, but you trade short term so set yourself realistic daily targets. Say 1% to start. So on a 2k account thats 20 a day. If you are going for 30% profit a day, its achievable, but not sustainable. To achieve big profit you usually open yourself up to big drawdown at some point and thats what canes you. Set yourself a hard limit on each trade to manage your risk. If your account attains your designated maximum drawdown, exit the trade. Irrespective of whether you think it will turn around. Those are the account killers that we need to avoid. 20 a day is 100 a week; 10% of 2000. Dop some sums to see how that compounds. Slow and steady sounds dull, but actually is a lot more stress free and a lot more maneagable. Where else can you invest 2k to receive that level of return. You could probably even go for 0.5% / day. Once you achieve your target walk away. Not necessarily closing your trade, but maybe you are lucky enough to have moved your stop loss to break even or better your original take profit price and then let the trade ride with a trailing stop.

4. Focus. If you are trading for a short time period per day ensure that you are absolutely focussed and do not have any distractions.

 

Don't give up man. Just work hard to find out what's letting you down and do something about it.

 

If you find you don't enjoy trading and its not for you then fair enough...

[gavind 11]

Hi RealDemo, how's it going so far. Are you still into reading? Would be nice if you can share some updates.