Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

RealDemo

2012 Forex Trading Journal

Recommended Posts

Ok, my mornings trading cancelled due to external forces.

 

So on the pound the channel break came last night and turned into a TA dream.

I can't talk about this as a 'real' trade as I wasn't there to take it but with my retrospective goggles fitted firmly over my eyes I can give it a go.

 

My strategy involves making a decision over trading a trendline breakout or fading it. GBP I've found responds quite well to fading if given enough reasons.

 

Weighing up the probability of a TL break failure my reasons would be this:

 

1- the pound is weak against $ at the moment

2- 5480 holding price back yesterday

3- DP possible resistance

4- bull channel lower TL retest

5- bearish TL from recent high

 

......wow these goggles are great.....

 

GBP110112.jpg

 

....as I type crying into my gruel.... massive dollar strength coming in to the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today I gather yet more evidence that I remain plankton like before the mighty whale market.

 

I was geared up today that what ever else gives out it wouldn't be my execution of the plan.

Well the first trade was taken, not good direction. Second trade triggered by the closing of the first, good direction but........ user error.

 

Why I placed the stop there I do not know, it's not it's place, but it was found. :doh:

 

So shocked and annoyed I decided to abort. An entry in the NY session with the pin off the pivot would have been nice but I was away from my computer.

 

100 odd pips here would have lifted moral but it was not to be..... on to the next, it's all experience.

 

Here is the chart in all it's resplendence.....

 

EUR120112.jpg

 

EUR120112PT2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So going into week 3 my account is down 2%. I've learnt a lot, the biggest problem I think is my severe lack of patients, I'm going to have to get over this if I'm going to have any hope of progressing.

 

I know, if, buts and maybe's don't belong in the real world..... but..... if I had just shorted EURUSD at the start and not looked at my computer until today..... I'd be up around 300pips :crap:

 

...back to the real world.... :missy:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR160112.jpg

 

This triple A thing has put the boot in. It's like every time the sun breaks through a chink in the clouds over Europe a wind whips up and blows in more cloud.

 

Is this year destined to be a 2011 'take 2'?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are times technical and fundamental analysis may be useless and the market goes where it wants to go. I like this saying: "The news doesn't make the market, rather the market makes the news"

gbp-nfp-sentiment.jpg.b57c6349ca6a527b6146d2ce4d550212.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So this week my account hasn't moved because I haven't moved.

 

Looking to get some positions on this week. Eur pulling back breaking out of it's bear channel, (not shown)

 

Is this just pulling the rubber band back more so we can shoot off to 1.16?

 

Here's some levels I'm looking at on the bullish side of things.

 

EUR22012012.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Obsidian said:
I think 1.2800/1.2850 will hold this week unless we don't any surprises..Fed policy meeting starts tomorrow and eu meeting on wednesday...

 

Last weeks COT report showing a lot of commercial buying, I hope they continue, I've got a gap trade that I'd like to add to.

 

USDCHF dropping perfectly out of Asia's tight little range...... and what a lovely little range that is.

 

 

CHF230112.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Took this short as price raced into the pivot. A support turned resistance level. To be honest this is late in the day for me..... uumming and aarring about what to do, (I know that's not good) also got a eurjpy short trade struggling to survive as well.

 

CHF24012012.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the end of January comes around and the scores on the doors are -8.5% on the account.

 

Personally a difficult start to the year but not completely unexpected considering my level of skill.

 

Certainly I have a much better idea of what taking monetary risk really feels like. I've had very little exposure to gambling in my life so putting money behind a conviction is a pretty new experience.

 

The theory, which is simple enough, has been difficult to execute consistently, and it's been shocking just how far I can stray in this respect.

 

Recognising certain things, whatever that may be, patterns, price action etc. in real time and acting on that information is where I need to focus. The deceptive nature of how price action forms is intriguing, and it's understandable that people look for confirmation all the time.

 

Here's to better results in February.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  RealDemo said:
So the end of January comes around and the scores on the doors are -8.5% on the account...The theory, which is simple enough, has been difficult to execute consistently, and it's been shocking just how far I can stray in this respect.....

 

We don't risk any real money in theory :D

It was 1999-2000 when I started trading stocks. First year I lost 50% of my account, then it took 2 years to learn how to trade and gain what I lost. We learn from our mistakes as well...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Obsidian said:
We don't risk any real money in theory :D

It was 1999-2000 when I started trading stocks. First year I lost 50% of my account, then it took 2 years to learn how to trade and gain what I lost. We learn from our mistakes as well...

 

....yes, the statistics are not in my favour, and as you say the regaining of lost ground is a steep hill to climb.

 

I'm surprised that the difference between demo and real is so large, maybe it's just me. I'm really not playing big, I mean 2 grand is really laughable. :haha:

 

I hope to learn from the mistakes I make..... I've got nearly an A4 side of notes from this months trading to make sure that I remember all of them (mistakes) and then very consciously try to force a change of habit.

 

One example, and it's one of the larger problems for me is hesitation. Even with all parameter gauges reading 'good' I can still hover in limbo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  RealDemo said:
....yes, the statistics are not in my favour, and as you say the regaining of lost ground is a steep hill to climb.

I'm surprised that the difference between demo and real is so large, maybe it's just me. I'm really not playing big, I mean 2 grand is really laughable. :haha:

I hope to learn from the mistakes I make..... I've got nearly an A4 side of notes from this months trading to make sure that I remember all of them (mistakes) and then very consciously try to force a change of habit.

One example, and it's one of the larger problems for me is hesitation. Even with all parameter gauges reading 'good' I can still hover in limbo.

 

Trading is like a marathon, not a race though. Reach the finish line and don't care about the ones who passed you.

It may take a year for you to gain what you lost but does it really matter? Once you figure out how to beat the market, you will start making money.

If you increase trading size to gain faster, you make another mistake by forgetting money/risk management...keep it slow and constant...you will see that you feel more comfortable...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Obsidian said:
Trading is like a marathon, not a race though. Reach the finish line and don't care about the ones who passed you.

It may take a year for you to gain what you lost but does it really matter? Once you figure out how to beat the market, you will start making money.

If you increase trading size to gain faster, you make another mistake by forgetting money/risk management...keep it slow and constant...you will see that you feel more comfortable...

 

I think you may be over simplifying things with platitudes, but I get your point and appreciate your comment.

 

Trading is a performance activity, we can't learn from our mistakes if we don't care about them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DOLLAR01022012.jpg

 

London on the hard sell today. I took the option of trading this USD index again short as it failed to hold on to the swing high on the 4hourly.

 

Exited at channel low, ADR very high and ADP news, could drop more obviously but I've got my generous slice so I'm out till the next time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I should have chosen to watch some paint dry today, it would have been a thrill in comparison to this market.

 

Got squeezed out of a cable short @5796 early trying to fade something that wasn't in a fading mood.

 

USDJPY breaking 77.51 range low now, might look for a retest short there but it's a bit late in the day for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rock & Roll Thursday.......

 

Got long USDJPY 78.25..... want to please try and hang on......pretty please

 

Short CAD @ 1.0040.... f@uk I love these ones, no pissing about.

 

S&P wtf!!! yesterday it was buried, today we're off to the moon!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dude, stopping journal or stopping trading? Every trading error you have logged is exactly what every other trader goes through. You have invested a lot of time into learning to trade and maybe are at the hurdle we all have to face (usually repeatedly). its frustrating because we know what we need to do, but find it difficult to implement in real time. Its always easy in hindsight.

 

From what you have written, here are some objective observations.

 

1. Learn to control emotions. Try and do this by really accepting your risk. If you put on a trade and then nervously wait to see if it wins that is gambling. If you truly accept that every trade can lose and trade according to a backtested strategy with acceptable risk then all individual trades are insignificant. Its what happens in the long term that matters. You "simply" ensure that your wins are bigger than your losers.

2. Confidence. Are you really confident with your trade plan? do you know how your strategy performs when backtested against years worth of data?

3. Patience. You want to win and you want to win now. Don't we all, but we learn to take what the market gives us. You have a trade strategy. Your trade strategy defines your set-ups. You only trade when the set-ups show themselves.Correct me if I'm wrong, but you trade short term so set yourself realistic daily targets. Say 1% to start. So on a 2k account thats 20 a day. If you are going for 30% profit a day, its achievable, but not sustainable. To achieve big profit you usually open yourself up to big drawdown at some point and thats what canes you. Set yourself a hard limit on each trade to manage your risk. If your account attains your designated maximum drawdown, exit the trade. Irrespective of whether you think it will turn around. Those are the account killers that we need to avoid. 20 a day is 100 a week; 10% of 2000. Dop some sums to see how that compounds. Slow and steady sounds dull, but actually is a lot more stress free and a lot more maneagable. Where else can you invest 2k to receive that level of return. You could probably even go for 0.5% / day. Once you achieve your target walk away. Not necessarily closing your trade, but maybe you are lucky enough to have moved your stop loss to break even or better your original take profit price and then let the trade ride with a trailing stop.

4. Focus. If you are trading for a short time period per day ensure that you are absolutely focussed and do not have any distractions.

 

Don't give up man. Just work hard to find out what's letting you down and do something about it.

 

If you find you don't enjoy trading and its not for you then fair enough...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.