2012 Forex Trading Journal

[RealDemo 10]

Hi,

beginning at the start of next year I shall be trading my first live forex account.

 

In true community spirit I'll be recording these efforts for delight and derision here:

 

http://forexnovicetrader.weebly.com/index.html

 

.... should you wish to look

 

I'm not selling anything btw.

 

Actually.... other than to publicise my possible slow death, I'd be interested to here from anyone who may be planning going live soon. Preferably forex trading, but don't let that stop you, happy to share thoughts with anybody who finds themselves at this particular stage on their trading route.

 

I'm going to try and post some stuff here as well but I must make it clear this is obviously not 'Guru Time'. The aim is to just try and provide a record of what might happen when we (me) as novice traders open our wallets and stop playing monopoly.....

 

....if statistics can be believed then this might not take very long.

 

My own reason for creating something public is this...

 

Firstly, that the ease in which I could stray from my rules will hopefully be restricted due to the public embarrassment it would cause me. A well executed trade that didn't work out is fine, but a forced trade that didn't make the list and then lost is not. :haha:

You never know it might work.

 

Secondly, I hope it genuinely might help others in whatever way that might be, even if it's to say "*u*k that!"

 

As I say this is the first time so I'm not going in deep, I'm putting $2000 in a microlot account and taking it from there. This money can be lost without provoking death or divorce....or both.

 

So there you go, hope this might interest somebody.

[henryduncan12 10]

Thanks to share your 2012 forex trading plan. Same thing is here. I am also planning to go for real account with AVAfx https://www.avafx.com/Real-Registration-Steps/ since next year. I hope next year will good for you and me as well.

[RealDemo 10]

Hi,

hope things go well for you too. If you can find time post your thoughts and experiences.

[RealDemo 10]

 

Nice snowy christmassy Swissie bonus this morning.

 

Set-up gave a normal entry signal, entered early getting in before the rush, stop just the other side of last 15m swing. Fairly high probability of a $ pullback today on all pairs anyway, some profit taking and the Euro at a significant low 1.30. TP set for swing low support and within ADR.

 

I don't normally trade news but the correlation of a technical set-up with a bonus fundamental move created a pretty good trade.

 

2 lots left on for the possibility of a continued move lower, may have to wait for NY before a continuation or reversal is seen,50pips locked in with stop.

[RealDemo 10]

 

 

An important lesson I've learned on the subject of support and resistance is the way it changes from one to the other and the trading opportunities that creates.

 

Looking back at this recent Eurusd chart, 3 possible short entry set-ups stand out for me at this swing low support turned resistance.

 

First entry would be short off the line 3220, high probability that price will be rejected there.

 

Second would be short after the formation of this bearish candle, we arrive a little bit later but we've got some more supporting evidence that sellers are coming in.

 

Third would be to wait for the candle and look to short a fib retracement of that candle. This last one of course risks missing the boat completely if it doesn't retrace.

 

All these entries allow us to get in early before the price takes off on the breakout, which in a down trend is what we want.

 

This pullback retest can be seen on all time frames and is an excellent way to enter a trend.

[RealDemo 10]

 

Approaching the low of 2011.

 

Where are we off to next :question:

[RealDemo 10]

 

 

USDCHF remains in bearish mood in this channel. The triangle formation butting up against the DP this morning falling away sharply at the London Open.

 

My bias was bearish with the 4hr trend and from the DP the TP levels were S1, S2, and much to my surprise S3.

 

On the 4hr bullish channel price is now on the lower trend line.

[RealDemo 10]

 

Long GBP this morning out of this Asian range. Looking at the 4hr gives some perspective on where price will probably find sellers and buyers will bail out, plus some news mid morning to watch out for. Actually R1 target hit before the news so closed trade.

 

 

 

Looking for a set-up to go long this pair back into this channel. I chose to try and fade this Asian session breakout, looked like a possible DB pattern but first trade stopped out by a spike.

 

Re-entered on the break of the last 15m swing. All out at R1.

 

[RealDemo 10]

 

These last four days give a pretty good overall picture of what this very simple European open stategy can offer. The demo results I've had from this year have been encouraging, so briefly.....

 

Trade 1,Monday. A loser to start the week, it happens.

 

Trade 2,Tuesday. A flyer, these are the best but these are the winners I need to max out.

 

Trade 3,Wednesday. Another flyer, not so high. Took the trade off due to news. Didn't max out.

 

Trade 4,Thursday. A breakeven. I cut the trade fearing a repeat of Monday.

 

....and that's that. :missy:

 

All the best to TL traders for 2012.

[RealDemo 10]

 

This fourteen day trend line on the 4hr EURUSD finally burst it's banks at the start of the US session, and kept within the longer term bear channel.

 

 

Events on the markets have strengthened Dollar across the board creating some powerful moves. The GBPUSD has dropped over 200pips.

 

Here is my chart of that pair and some explanations.

 

 

Coming into today price has been trading a very narrow range. Previous high/low trendlines are drawn and I'm ideally looking for a set-up to get short.

 

 

Early London session stays within Asian range confirming for the moment that there is little interest in buying Sterling.

 

A little fake out of this range hitting the resistance provides a perfect fading entry (green circle).

 

At point 1 the lower trend line is broken but the 33pip's to the previous swing doesn't fit with what I'm looking for so this is not taken.

Price again finding resistance back at the Asian range, and we have the US coming on line too. Session openings are useful places to look for momentum.

 

At this point an order is placed below the trend line 2, the price action is looking weak and close to the line. Stop loss can be placed outside the upper range, take profit levels S1,S2,S3 if I get lucky.

[RealDemo 10]

 

Price tightening it's range and leaving this pattern in it's wake on the 4hr chart.

 

Whatever the reason, trend exhaustion, consolidation before continuation, or possible reversal the end result is often a breakout. Go for it Asia.

 

Not my time to trade but interesting to see what develops.

[RealDemo 10]

 

A little bit messy but it got there in the end.

 

Asian session very quiet creating a tight overnight range. Approaching European session price keeping close to pivot, I'm looking for a breakout higher. Long order placed just above the pivot, SL on the other side of the range.

 

Initial break looks good but as price comes back below pivot and back into the range this looks like I should have gone for a fade.

 

Plan your trade, trade your plan....... and sweat a bit. This testing of nerve is one part of trading that used to crack me open like a nut. I now have displacement activities to help....like make tea, write journal and rules like, not stare at screen thinking you can influence anything unless you possess special powers.

 

Price breaks pivot, retests pivot. Breaks resistance, retests as support and gathers buyers at the end of the morning to move higher.

 

TP@ R1, price breaks previous 15m swing and NY opening continues the move breaking the 38fib. Stop loss moved up under resistance with a bullish pinbar.

 

(not on chart) 50% fib hit, TP2 hit @R2, in the ADR zone 130-140pips, 1.5540 resistance.

 

All out.

 

Next week I'm logging into the real account and will continue recording the consequence of that folly.

[RealDemo 10]

At the end of every week I hope to be able to review my trading by using this website : https://www.fxstat.com/

 

 

[RealDemo 10]

 

My bias is bearish but cautious as the world comes back from the holidays.

[RealDemo 10]

Asia decide to open with a bang and Europeans come in to support.

EUR,GBP,AUD all moving higher in that session which leaves no set-ups for me on these pairs this morning.

German unemployment rate down a smitchin.

 

 

The Swissy didn't react in the same way and I missed a perfectly good entry off the DP.

This should have been the only pair (of my set) that I was looking at this morning, having quickly condemned the others. My awareness was not up to speed and my reaction time to the market was slow.

 

TRADE WHAT YOU SEE...... (if you see it at all)

 

Price has since dropped to 9320 support region.

 

[RealDemo 10]

Stopped out of long bull trap I think, certainly I feel my bull has been well and truly trapped.

 

Errors:

Did not close out 1-2 lots at 10pips as written in rules.

Shorting the dollar was the wrong bias.

Recognition of market condition poor and re-entry possibility missed.

Entry into possible longer term continuation trade missed.

 

I'm adding 'watch for possible market fade after entry' into the trade management rules in the hope that one day I'll read them.

 

EUR and CHF the big movers in todays European session.

 

Not at all the best of starts, I lost 2% capital today and then stare at the price that's moved 175 pips and I wonder wtf........... :crap: did I black-out there for a bit?

 

It's not the 2% that concerns me, it's the bad trading stemming from a lack of discipline.

I need to get back to how I was feeling in demo, which at it's best felt a lot less forced.

 

[RealDemo 10]

Long USDCHF this morning.

 

 

Tight overnight range with weak but constant support for the Dollar.

Dollar bulls coming back into the market at the start of London session.

 

SL now @ 9460, Dollar looks bullish but expecting a retracement in price, need to hang on.

Reason for SL placement:

Under 38% fib

Under last 15m swing

Under 9468 PSH

Under R1

 

Judging where to hang on is difficult. To tight and you risk getting stopped out before price moves higher, to loose and you risk giving back unrealised profit in the event of a reversal, but it's probably here that the real work begins....... or ends.

 

Price may want to test 9450 in which case I'm out.

 

ADP later will probably make it or break it.

[RealDemo 10]

It's cathartic.... :crap:

 

[RealDemo 10]

 

The balance isn't correct for some reason on this FXstat site, it should be $2056.81 but the -0.90 is correct.

 

A very disjointed stuttering start to my trading month. Honestly I feel lucky to be down only 0.90 cts.

 

I have really got to stick to the plan and I feel it would be wise to almost take the 'set & forget' line of attack, because my intervention is nearly always a bad thing.

 

NFP is out of the way and this pitiful start has only made me more determined to work harder.

[MightyMouse 12]

Why is the balance off?

 

How many different pairs do you trade?

 

Do you stick to a particular timeframe?

 

Are you scaling into or out of trades? What is your basic strategy?

 

Are you posting your entry stop and exit levels before you enter?

 

I applaud your effort and courage to post publicly and I hope you succeed.

 

You are going to make mistakes. It's a game of mistakes. The guy with the least mistakes makes the most. So, when you think you made a lamebrain decision, it's just a part of the game. Regroup and reload.

[RealDemo 10]

Why is the balance off?

 

How many different pairs do you trade?

 

Do you stick to a particular timeframe?

 

Are you scaling into or out of trades? What is your basic strategy?

 

Are you posting your entry stop and exit levels before you enter?

 

I applaud your effort and courage to post publicly and I hope you succeed.

 

You are going to make mistakes. It's a game of mistakes. The guy with the least mistakes makes the most. So, when you think you made a lamebrain decision, it's just a part of the game. Regroup and reload.

 

My opening balance was $2057.71, minus the 90cts doesn't make $2020.12, maybe I'm missing something. The site in question doesn't explain its inner workings very well. I may well look for another, maybe fxbook.

 

I trade 4 pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD & USDCHF. I normally only trade one at a time.

 

I place my trade on a 15m chart with reference always to the higher time frames, the 4hr especially.

 

I'm all in and I scale out using daily pivot R1 R2 etc. The basic strategy is a London open momentum/breakout grab the wave and ride it as far as I can strategy, really no more complicated than that.

 

An intraday trendline from previous day highs or lows gives me a line in the sand at which I watch for price action set-ups.

 

If I'm really on the ball and feel confident about direction I will sometimes fade a breakout, but always in the direction of the bias. I try and trade with the prevailing bias, long or short Dollar always, although I am cautious around possible 3+ day corrections I may take those types of trades occasionally.

 

I don't post before, but I do try to screen capture during my trade, for my own records as much as anything. The last USDCHF chart that I posted shows my live entry and stop.

 

Thanks for your post and encouragement, I appreciate it.

[RealDemo 10]

Well I checked today and for whatever reason it's now sorted itself out. This is correct.

 

[RealDemo 10]

I tried fading the Euro this morning. Limited success as there has been no follow through. Slight profit with minimum lot size but flat going into Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

(Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank said on Monday Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan was going to take over as chairman from Philipp Hildebrand who stepped down after a controversial currency trade by his wife.

"For the time being, the Vice Chairman, Thomas Jordan, will hold the position of Chairman of the SNB Governing Board," the SNB said in a statement.

[RealDemo 10]

With no strategy set-ups this morning I took a rather callow short on the Aussie. Thought it would pullback much further than it did after having had a good run..... it didn't.

 

But at least I did recognise that this wasn't going to be and entered half size and managed to pull a little profit anyway.

 

 

Gold pushing higher and coming up to a major resistance. With this chart of 30m gold I've got the fxcm usdollar chart. Not exactly the $index but not far off. Fairly high negative correlation, so if gold bounces I'll be looking for dollar strength, if it breaks then I'll be looking for continued dollar weakness.

 

[RealDemo 10]

This weeks GBP so far I've got in this gentle bullish channel. Previous 4hr swing failed to make a lower low.