The More Trustworthy Average: EMA, MA, or VWAP?

[fltpnl 10]

hunter, can you explain what you mean by vwap's fractal coefficients are?

 

  hunter1 said:

I can't wait to read the flames and crazy rants for what I am about to say.

 

I can teach anyone to trade using the VWAP with EMA and guarantee with my cash that they will pull 4 points ( 16 ticks) per day from the ES.

 

The trick is that they would have to do exactly what I teach them to do and nothing else. And that is a big trick indeed. The heart of forums are folks that already trade but are looking to add learn or do something else. The trick is only trade with the trend as I define.

 

The problem is so many people cant help but take counter trend trades.

 

 

Also to trade with the trend you must also be able to identify when the trend may be changing. That is why it is hard to trade with the trend. Most people have not worked on how to tell when a trend may be changing or ending.

 

Vwap will give you trend . EMA will give heads up as to when trend might be changing. Trend is not as simple as a series of higher highs ect even though that sounds logical.

 

Also to trade VWAP you do not use it as a single number but rather you must use its fractal coefficients.

 

You also must learn to read the market and understand context. Stop looking for the magic indicator of buy when this color changes etc etc.

 

So now flame on !

[hunter1 10]

Fractals really should be a other topic.

 

To be short Bell curve and reversion to mean are nice but are not accurate. For example the odds of the 1987 crash was 10 to the 50th power. It never should have happened in any one's life time . There are many of these events that odds say shouldn't happen but do. Less extreme but still well outside a bell curve and mean reversion has happened many other time's and some news drives the market in moves that defy the statistical probability. A method to account for these moves is therefore needed. That is where fractals come in. you can account for these moves in a fractal picture but not in a bell curve picture

 

However for 70% of the time the use of standard deviations from the vwap will be fine and that is what I recommend. I do have a fractal method for accounting for the other 30% of moves but that is far beyond my abilities to explain here. Just go with a vwap with 2 standards and you will be fine.

[hunter1 10]

Tams I am not much on teaching. A thread on how I trade or read the market wouldn't be much help I don't think. I use Vwap with 2 EMA's. Delta candles to help identify price action at key points

 

For example if we hit the vwap from below and delta is rising I do not just take a short. I wait to see if selling starts to come in to confirm. The expectation is the vwap will be R but I still need to see proof that it is acting as R. Same with a VAH if we come to a VAH from below I expect it to act as R but need to see proof.

 

The exception to needing to see proof is if these key area's are hit and if the fractal pattern is giving a short signal in the above example. If the fractal cycle is showing a short( this cycle must be matching on 2 of my 3 charts at least ) I will just enter a short with a 6 tick stop loss no matter what the delta says. The fractal cycles are very accurate.

[Tams 20]

  hunter1 said:

Tams I am not much on teaching. A thread on how I trade or read the market wouldn't be much help I don't think. I use Vwap with 2 EMA's. Delta candles to help identify price action at key points

 

For example if we hit the vwap from below and delta is rising I do not just take a short. I wait to see if selling starts to come in to confirm. The expectation is the vwap will be R but I still need to see proof that it is acting as R. Same with a VAH if we come to a VAH from below I expect it to act as R but need to see proof.

 

The exception to needing to see proof is if these key area's are hit and if the fractal pattern is giving a short signal in the above example. If the fractal cycle is showing a short( this cycle must be matching on 2 of my 3 charts at least ) I will just enter a short with a 6 tick stop loss no matter what the delta says. The fractal cycles are very accurate.

 

many thanks for your explanation.

[MightyMouse 12]

On Viagra:

 

[quote=hunter1;134350

I can teach anyone to trade using the VWAP with EMA and guarantee with my cash that they will pull 4 points ( 16 ticks) per day from the ES.

 

Off Viagra:

 

  hunter1 said:

Tams I am not much on teaching. A thread on how I trade or read the market wouldn't be much help I don't think. I use Vwap with 2 EMA's. Delta candles to help identify price action at key points.

[Do Or Die 10]

Guys, he is just a vendor alias, see this post: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/11438-divergence-trading-strategy-advanced-2.html#post133480

 

Some calling himself a professional and *willing* to teach others, whose trading style changes every six months. Added more posts below.

Edited December 19, 2011 by Do Or Die

[Do Or Die 10]

  hunter1 said:

I am a scalper. Trade emini. oso set for 3 tics start with a 6 tic stop loss then adjust it lower after entry is filled. usually use limit orders but not always. Also quickly adjust profit target if I dont get immediate fill. never stay in a trade longer than 45 seconds. maybe 1 minute if lunch time. Friday was typical summer day. 27 trades filled 3 losers, 1 4 tic, 1 3 tic,1 2 tic. 2 winners less than 3 tics. 80% of trades are with my trend . Have only 2 against trend set ups I will take. I use just 1 chart for trading. Use mkt profile and cycles.

 

A trade example is is hit VAH and get a short signal. Go short. get my 3 tics . Using MP I am expecting price to continue to rotate down Next target is either POC or a cycle point. If I have at least 6 tics room to target I go short again on next short signal..I deal stop is still above VAH but depends on entry and what price is doing. Profit target is also adjusted depending on volume at upcoming prices.

 

Example profit target should be 84.25 but heavy volume is at 84.50 will move to 84.50 on a short from 85.

 

After costs still make over $8 on a 1 tic trade so even if I just take all 1 tic trades I make $. For me this is a job so I need to make a daily paycheck. I used to trade other methods that meant staying in for the ride but I got very tired of making 15 points one day and losing 10 the next.

 

  hunter1 said:

This is an invitation to everyone. Monday Jan 15 for 1 week you can listen to traders live as they take trades and discuss the market as it unfolds. Nothing wil be sold. There will be no teaching just the chance to listen to traders that earn their living trading the ES. You will hear everything they talk about and do during the course of trading.

 

The room is in PalTalk. It is " ES Trading Today".

 

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