Any Bond Futures Traders Around?

[cybernick 10]

Hi, I'm a budding Bond Futures Trader (Bunds & Treasuries).

 

Any advice for me or specifics about the bonds market structure that I should take note?

[TheNegotiator 13]

What are you looking for? Some tips that'll make you money? Bond futures are much like any other product from a technical point of view that they trade via an auction. They have things which probably effect them more than other products though. Bond auctions, POMO, interest rates/inflation, curve plays. Lots of things. Know what's happening in the news. Understand which timetabled events are going to effect your markets and learn what you find works best for you from a technical standpoint. If you have any specific questions, ask them and maybe someone will be able to help.

[phantom 16]

So, CyberNick, why are you choosing bonds as your trading vehicle? Do you plan on holding your positions overnight or just day trading them? The bonds and notes can move very slowly at times, almost like molasses. So get used to that; be patient. But, come financial report day, they move very fast. So, don't get caught in a position before the release unless you have some equity built into the trade.

 

Make sure you know what the big picture looks like, i.e. weekly highs and lows. Trade around those numbers. Don't trade counter-trend without keeping a close eye on your position. Best to stay with the trend at all times if you're a beginning trader in that market.

 

The bonds and notes LOVE Fibonacci numbers, especially .618, so learn what that means and use accordingly.

 

Anyway, good luck (or better yet, good skill).

 

Luv,

Phantom

[cybernick 10]

Thanks for the tip on fibonacci numbers, heard that from someone too.

I'm day trading the Bunds & T-notes.

 

Any other specifics to note?

E.g. For support & resistance levels, use purely horizontal lines & fibo lines? Are trend channels/moving averages useful?

Also anything to note on the DOM/ charts?

[Jaap 10]

The Bund future (FGBL) is very nice to daytrade. Very volatile and liquid.

ADR(10) = 1,60 and daily volume around 900 k. Tick value 10 euro.

 

Jaap

[phantom 16]

  cybernick said:

Thanks for the tip on fibonacci numbers, heard that from someone too.

I'm day trading the Bunds & T-notes.

 

Any other specifics to note?

E.g. For support & resistance levels, use purely horizontal lines & fibo lines? Are trend channels/moving averages useful?

Also anything to note on the DOM/ charts?

 

What I do is to draw a line between last week's high and low and then look at the fib retracement ratios in price and in time. When the time "node" is hit, look for some kind of reaction in the market. If the time node just happens to align with the price level fib node, look for a turning point in the market.

 

I could write a book about support and resistance in the bond/notes markets. (I have volumes of charts I've made notes on over the years) and maybe I'll post something later. But the above tip ought to get you started.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[cybernick 10]

fibonacci in time? haven't use that before. How do you draw that?

[cybernick 10]

Also any strong correlations with other markets?

[phantom 16]

  cybernick said:

fibonacci in time? haven't use that before. How do you draw that?

 

Look for "fib time extensions" in your software package. Draw point-to-point, just like retrace levels.

 

Also, bonds are usually the mirror image of the SP500, ie bonds up when stocks down...

But, of course, this relationship strays at times...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[BigAl_LBL 10]

Be very aware of BPV's, understand yield curve, check the volumes and RSI, be aware of the relevent spread strategies (even if you don't want to trade spreads other people do). Read the no bs guide to trading pdf until you understand it or get training from a company like GTC who are excel at training for Bond and STIR futures trading.

Other than those just watch the ladder until you can see what is happening. Oh and one other thing - probably the most important - check the economic calendar every day, know when every announcement is due and be ready for it.

[drm7 10]

  cybernick said:

Also any strong correlations with other markets?

 

In this environment, longer-term bonds (10, 30 years) are inversely correlated with equities (ES, YM, NQ).

[cybernick 10]

Any market tends to lead the T-notes & Bunds?

[doubletop11 10]

  cybernick said:

Any market tends to lead the T-notes & Bunds?

 

They just tend to be the inverse of the US indexes. I really wouldn't say there's a leading marketing of them that I know of. If you want to do spreads that's another subject all together.

But once you know how to truly trade Price Action and support/resistance(supply/demand) It's pretty much just like trading any other market. Every market has it's little quark but that's how it goes.

Futures trading and bonds are wonderful, but no matter what market you chose to watch make sure you have a general idea on what's happening in Forex, futures, and equities(or indexes). Never forget the big picture!

[cybernick 10]

I'm currently trading the 5 years, 10 years & 30 years. Scalping & sometimes spreading.

Any good reference materials/books/blogs I can follow?

[Chippy 10]

30/10/5 year bonds all work great with Stochastics and RSI...on a 5 min chart you can scalp that all day long with the extreme readings of Stoch and RSI.

[cybernick 10]

  Chippy said:

30/10/5 year bonds all work great with Stochastics and RSI...on a 5 min chart you can scalp that all day long with the extreme readings of Stoch and RSI.

 

Thanks! What are your Stoch & RSI settings?

[Chippy 10]

  cybernick said:

Thanks! What are your Stoch & RSI settings?

 

slow stochastics, 13,2,2,1 8 low and 92 high extreme

 

rsi normal settings length 14, oversold 5, overbought 95

 

When they both agree its best to go in. You can trade just off the stoch if you want. However, only trade in the trend direction..that is what I do. If it's an up day, only buy on low extremes. I use the open price of the market for general trend direction (after the first hour of trading I see where its trending...above or below the open, and that is my set direction). I also use other indicators to tell me whether its an up trend or down trend...but I paid for those off someone lol People can generally find their own ways of finding direction...it's really personal preference on indicators to use.

 

But whatever you do, make sure you have a set plan and set rules...and always follow them! I go for 5 tick stop 5 tick target every time, and I have a 60% win rate with all my rules. Provides a little income each month, but I am not aiming to be a billionaire in 1 year either Biggest thing is setting up your own plan I think. If you have any questions about more specifics you can pm me

[kuokam 10]

I must be missing some thing. I see both S&P and the treasuries at all times highs, yet every body is saying that they don't go hand in hand. The only inverse move was this Friday following NFP release, as the index when up and the 10 years down.

[TheDude 10]

  kuokam said:

I must be missing some thing. I see both S&P and the treasuries at all times highs, yet every body is saying that they don't go hand in hand. The only inverse move was this Friday following NFP release, as the index when up and the 10 years down.

 

 

Theory states that people will ditch bonds and buy stock when rates are low, opposite when rates are high - thus a supposed inverse relationship.

 

As we all know, theory rarely works in the real world.

 

Currently you have governments buying bonds for QE measures, against a backdrop of low rates - so both stocks and bonds rally.

[kuokam 10]

Thanks Dude, I thought I was going lunatic .

Looks like for the time being, it's safer when trading the treasuries, to favor the longer term maturities as indicators, rather than the relationship to an index.

The following days will tell if the inverse relationship restored last friday is back to stay.

 

  TheDude said:

Theory states that people will ditch bonds and buy stock when rates are low, opposite when rates are high - thus a supposed inverse relationship.

 

As we all know, theory rarely works in the real world.

 

Currently you have governments buying bonds for QE measures, against a backdrop of low rates - so both stocks and bonds rally.

[meow 10]

To the question what lead the price of the bonds 6J- can be good indicator. When they are trending together 4-6 ticks of 6J gives you 1 tick in ZB apptox. Those are my observations lately.