The Reversal/Confirmation/Continuation Trading Continuum

[UrmaBlume 10]

Today at Approx 10:55 nailed the low of the ES session, there was all the criteria needed to pick that bottom;..FROM the 1K only.....Large intensity spike divergence on the V94, and then it went up from there! will post a screen shot of the 1K, or if you have a shot of this, and the other frames...Question - I didn't notice any imbalance on the 8K / 12K / somewhat noticeable on the 5K How would I have gotten this using the higher time volume frames? as I didn't see any divergence on these volume frames...

 

The markets are defined by a Price/Time Volume Continuum.

 

Speculative Trend Following Trading is best done via a Reversal/Confirmation/Continuation Continuum.

 

At 1055 EST or 0755 PST there was indeed a bottoming spike and a divergence in the fastest time frame. At the same time there was a positive divergence in the 24k chart.

 

The order of the trading continuum is that first comes signs of a reversal. If the first signs of the reversal are not strong enough for you to enter you can wait for a confirmation of the reversal which is a set of Higher Lows or Lower Highs in both price and the indicators and enter on confirmation.

 

If you miss both the Reversal and the Confirmation trades you can again enter on inciations of Continuation as described here.

 

It is up to each trader to collate the information from different time frames and different indications into his trading decisions. While oftentimes the information is not perfect, more experience will help the trader to find more good trades.

 

Yesterday's low was a perfect example of this Reversal/Confirmation/Continuation Trading Continuum. First came the signs of reversal with the spike in commercial trade velocity and next that reversal was confirmed by a series of higher lows and higher highs in both price and net new trade and in multiple time frames. These higher lows and higher highs continued throughout the sesssion for over 20 points, offering several great Continuation Trades.

 

Reversal

Confirmation

Continuation

 

Again the market is defined by a Price/Time/Volume Continuum and Trend trading is best conducted via the Reversal/Confirmation/Continuation Trading Continuum.

 

cheers

[steve46 12]

By coincidence I use a similar sequence that I call the "afternoon reversal"

 

Works on a tight time frame and is very simple to trade

 

Today was nearly picture perfect with the first trade kicking off at noon PST

and the reversal (called the "clean up") taking off from runway #1 at just after 12:30pm

 

Good luck everyone

 

Steve

[UrmaBlume 10]

Steve,

 

A very interesting trade. Could you please explain the triggers/rationale for both entries?

 

If they have to do with the blue bands cound you please desecibe them and tell us "afternoon" time specs for the trade.

 

With nothing but unddefined blue bands and a couple of arrows the post leaves us wondering about rationale/system/method/triggers.

 

cheers

 

UrMaBlume

[steve46 12]

I could do all of that Sir or Madam

 

The blue bands represent areas of previous supply and demand

 

The logic (rules for placement) like the logic to your own indicators is propietary, however it is relatively simple....

 

The broader logic to entry relates to behavior that many professionals have observed (apparently not you however)....The"afternoon specs" are time based...as mentioned in the post the signal for the trade occurs at (or near to) 1200 hours then again at or around 1230 hours....Pacific Standard Time....this is why it is called a reversal....

Edited October 29, 2011 by steve46