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Eric Johnson

Correlation and Hedging Revisited

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Hello, I am starting a thread regarding the idea of trading positively correlated currency pairs. I read the extensive postings on other threads and have developed some tools that I find useful. I have been trading these new tools successfully for about a year now. Basically I first developed my own ideas and charts, then adapted some of the ideas from the other posters.

I will have to see how this works with posting links to other trading forum websites. I was going to post this in context to a mega thread dealing with this subject. I was limited in my posting options, so I will post it on this website. I will begin with a nice customization of another person’s work to show where my work diverges from their main thread. The idea of the JM Variance was posted early in the major thread here by the developer JM1941.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=160912&page=29

It had more floating variables and intensive displays than I wanted for my systems. It was abandoned early on in their thread, and was replaced by a stochastic system. I do not care for the stochastic system much, due to stochastic flattening at tops and bottoms. I want precision and accuracy, avoiding rescaling, and light programs that I can run on multiple charts. Hedging can involve hundreds of pip draw downs, and something like a flattening stochastic can be costly. As far as I could tell, most of the posters found their results to be moderate and mostly resigned to demo trading and further development.

My development focused on trying to get clear measurements for when positively correlated pairs are separating enough to trade back together. Here is a parable to give an idea of the challenges and task. If I were going to mechanically measure the ocean ripples at two different bays over long periods, I would have to set up measurements. First the tide levels would have to be compensated for. These are the major daily bar trends. Next the individual waves would have to be filtered or compensated for. These are the hourly trends and chop. Finally one could get down to trying to get accurate measurement and comparisons of the ripples created by the wind (5 minute charts), and contrasting them to the other bay, in real time.

So I went to work reprogramming the JM Variance to be able to compensate and freeze some variables, so I can measure what I choose. After this is presented, I will go on to share my extensive correlation charts and profiles. I do not use the standard numerical correlation websites for choosing positive pairs. I find that a visual overlay chart is better for this. I am well aware of the distortion factors.

For the reason that a 2 pairs move apart (hence show low correlation) before I want to trade them back together; numerical correlation charts are not my preferred method. For distance of separation and speed of separation, I use my version of JM Variance.

Correlation (hedging) trading is a fairly complex endeavor. I have taken it to many levels, including trading currency pairs against indices, stocks, and commodities. The draw downs can be staggering, the news drastic, and trades can last for weeks. It is not something to quickly jump into. The concepts of scaling, tuning and measuring are not a precise science. The wild cards like the Swiss Euro intervention can throw off historical correlations, possibly for all Swiss related pairs.

I stay with correlation trading because it is a good way to use minimum lots to get very long pip gains. I have tripled accounts in a few months. I also can rest in hopes that the offset correlations are strong enough to compensate for major market swings, and my drawdowns hopefully minimized. Also I have confidence to ride long trends and reversals, because I am somewhat hedged. These concepts hopefully will become clearer as I show charts and strategies. There is a real beauty in just watching my open trades fluctuate until they are well in the profits. I have a real confidence that the correlations will bring the pairs back together as they have thousands of times before.

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Thanks. A couple questions

Why are you using the term ‘hedging’ instead of ‘spreading’?

Does your work include consideration of which pair (or instrument) is leading?

Example: EUR and US indexes are directionally correlated – but which one is determinant / leading?

Tranfer same ? to the correlated pairs.

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I will try my best to be useful with the questions. Honestly I got deep into the chart technicals not really even knowing what a "hedge fund" really was. So I hope others will accept the invite to add knowledge.

 

I say hedging because if you are working with 2 positively correlated pairs, even if both of them rise, if I am short one and long the other there should be a hedging effect. I do not care where they go, just that they come back together in pips and correlation. I think spread betting is a slightly different type of arbitrage, but I am fuzzy on that technique.

 

I have seen systems that use leading and following indicators, and some of Jason Fielders work, I think that mine is different. Do no I do not use leaders. I do establish a top pair to sell, and a bottom pair to buy.

 

As for my time periods, I prefer to trade hourly based charts, and the trades can last for days to weeks. I can trade 5 minute bars also, but do so less these days with mega trends like the EUR/USD declines.

I will show a chart as an intro. This chart is to give a beginner the allure of correlation trading. It is far from the whole story, and far from the advanced charting I will soon move to.

The picture shows the GBP/USD chart in red line EMA form. The top window is the green bar chart of the same GBP/USD. The yellow line chart overlay is the EUR/USD with a similar proportional accuracy. For months you can look back and see these pairs separate and come back together. If you could just measure the separation maximum averages, and trade them back together, you could not lose it seems. I mean, if the red is on top, sell it and buy the yellow on the bottom until they come together.

 

This is a simplistic and distorted view, but the basic concept is true. It just takes some advanced tools to see and measure clearly. I do appreciate the questions, let me know if I can be more clear.

5aa710ab643e7_EURGBPintro.thumb.jpg.aaf7d49af724d48d3488c70334a67d90.jpg

Edited by Eric Johnson

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I will now advance to my version of the JM Variance. I will rename it to the EJ Variance (EJV) for clarity form the original designers work. The attachments will still say JM Variance versions though; I do not want to disrupt the Metatrader profiles looking for my working title files.

 

From the picture you can see a yellow line chart, this is a 2 EMA overlay of the hourly bars of the EUR/USD. The white line chart is of the NZD/USD. This was created by dragging my custom indicators from the navigator menu onto the same lower window.

 

****** An early and IMPORTANT note, my preferred Metatrader is the forex.com USA (not UK, but that will work). It has the most currency pairs, stocks, commodities, and indicies available that I like to work with. Even then, there are different versions of the USA platform, they all have the currencies that work with the FXF extensions on them. Only the overlay line charts and profiles that I give are platform dependent. I have some of the line chart overlay indicators for normal Metatrader available and will try to clearly post these.

My JM Variance indicators (EJV) are not specific and accept either format of currency input in capital letters. For example EURUSDFXF is valid for a forex.com platform. For most all other platforms the input is EURUSD.

 

The bottom window of the picture shows the pink histogram. This is the EJV indicator. It shows the true pip difference between the EUR/USD and NZD/USD. Due to the prices of each pair being on different scales there is some work to be done to set up a useful chart that does not auto scale.

That is part of the challenge. The overlayed line charts are very unreliable. They rescale as you scroll them, introduce more lines, and even change on different monitor resolutions. They are useful, but I will cover them in a different post.

I will get into the nuts and bolts of the EJV indicator in the next post so you can better understand why it is a useful tool.

5aa710ab6bc60_EJVintro.thumb.jpg.8e380b362e45a286e63580b840f99ee0.jpg

Edited by Eric Johnson

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Here is where the market scientists part of the forum comes in. You are going to learn to control the graphic display that is normally automated by the computer. If you follow the logic, you will see why I did the EJM programming to set enable capturing specific measurements.

Here are the input parameters with defaults

Pair1 = "GBPUSDFXF"; **!!! Always the currency of the greatest numerical value

Pair1_digits = 0.0001 ; * leave this alone if not a Yen pair

If_yen_pair_0.01_not_0.0001 = "X" ; * change the above “digits value” to 0.01 if yen pair

 

Pair2 = "EURUSDFXF";

Pair2_digits = 0.0001 ; * change the above value to 0.01 if yen pair

P1WeekOpen = 1.61; * GBPUSD current price level – disregard “ week open” idea

P2WeekOpen = 1.42; * EURUSD current price level

Scale_factor = 5000; * this is the vertical stretch of the display histogram

For_yen_try_50_not_5000 = "X" ; * if one or both of the currencies are a yen pair change the

scale factor to the 15- 100 range

 

Lookback= 4000; *number of bars back histogram is displayed, important for not bogging down computing power on the charts, also can adjust the total number of bars on the chart from the main MT menu tools, options, charts

 

I will begin the details of setting up a workable chart. I will soon release the profiles that I have set up to save time and for examples. The reason for keeping the highest value pair as #1 is that when it comes time to place the trades you need to know the direction. If the histogram is above the zero line, sell pair #1 buy pair #2. If the histogram is below the zero line, buy pair #1 sell pair#2.

Yen pairs have different decimals, so I had to program in compensation for them. Do as the * instructions say. If the pair #1 is a yen cross, change the digits to 0.01 for pair one. You can have pair #2 be a non yen pair, or a yen pair also.

You set the week open value to the present price now. After you display the histogram, it is here that you adjust the up and down orientation of the histogram. Only use pair one and move it a few pips. For instance if the histogram was above the zero line too high, I could change the number from 1.60 to 1.65 . Each chart must be independently tuned. You want a lookback of at least 12000 bars. This placement of the histogram to zero line is aiming to have the histogram oscillating above and below the zero line over the last 6000 bars in general. You will probably need to set the scale factor first. Both of these are general setting estimates, you are really looking for fast and far separations. They will show up better if you adjust your settings properly. Once set up, I adjust lookback to 4000 to save computing power.

 

The scale factor I set by scrolling back 12000 bars (and setting the lookback to 12000 temporarily). I reduce vertical stretch scaling (scale factor) until the highs and lows fit on the chart. I know they are highs and lows because they keep continuing to the zero line eventually. Work with the week one (P1) open value to center at times. It is possible that the pair just changed real pip ranges as seen on the day bars ( had a major range change). Usually with scale factor adjustments down by 1000 at a time, the chart looks useable. Any histogram with a Yen cross can be scale factored from 15- 100 units range. I know this sounds complex, but with practice is not that difficult. My preset templates will be helpful also.

Oh yes, Meta trader backfill. Sometimes I need to make individual blank charts with the correct time frame. Then I turn off the auto scroll. Use the page up key to backfill the chart, then the histogram will backfill when the program is restarted.

So with all of that detail, I will soon post what to look for with your set up charts. I have 1 hour and 5 minute chart profiles I will release to get you started. I am sure I will want to edit and add to this page, but I wanted to give a taste of where this is headed.

My coding programming I am sure is far from properly copywrited or refined, it has been tested and used, hope it is useful.

''JM_Vari-BEST lookback yen 10 INVERSE positive up.zip

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Here are the EJV Metatrader profiles and indicators (bulk pack) for the forex.com FXF extension platform. It is to help people experiment with.

Backfilling may need to be done with individual charts. Deactivate the auto scroll and use the page up key to backfill the proper time period.

There are unnecessary indicators in the pack, and some for regular Metatrader platforms.

Make sure you unzip to the proper level to paste into the Metatrader program files.

JM HOURLY STACKS 1.zip

RANDOM HOURLY JM.zip

RANDOM HOURLY SECOND.zip

STACKS 5 min JM.zip

RANDOM JM 5 MINS.zip

RANDOM 5MIN II.zip

indicators.zip

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Eric,

Are you looking for sets of pairs to spread that are pretty highly correlated on daily ++ timeframes / charts but not so much on less than daily timeframes?

Current example would be GBPUSD and EURGBP...

Thanks.

zdo

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I built my general correlations on charts similar to the example of the EUR/USD GBP/USD that I posted previously as an example. It is hourly bars converted into a 2 SMA line chart, overlayed. I am looking for the basic visual confirmation that the pairs tend to travel up and down in similar patterns over months. More importantly, I need to confirm this with the EJV indicator, this lets me know that the pip difference is cycling in a range. I want the range to be consistent enough to base trades upon when the pairs are far separated.

Day bars are not enough intraday detail. I am not looking to trade absolute historical separations a few times a year and hold them for months. I want to be able to reverse strong hourly trends, that have run long and short, on normally correlated pairs. These have the combined factors working to put on the trade in the direction of the spread coming back together.

Highly correlated pairs are best, because the trades pay off quicker. I can trade non correlated pairs also, I just need to see that on my indicator EJV, that the expansion and contraction pip range is consistent and looks tradeable.

I am looking for a few factors for a good trade. I use the line overlay charts as a radar for possible wide spread pairs, that normally cross. I then check them on the EJV to make sure that the distortions on the line overlay charts are not misguiding me. If the EJV histogram looks good for long term range oscillation, I evaluate entering the trade.

On the EJV histogram I look for a few factors. First is the speed or angle of separation. If it is fast and wide, the chances of it coming back together some, are good. I do not trade the histogram back to the zero line, I exit trades at support and resistance lines once I am in the profit. These lines can be on the histogram, or in one of the pairs, but I close both.

The second factor is the historical magnitude of the separation I go back at least 12000 hourly bars and set the histogram (shrink) to fit in the display window. I want to be near my historical extremes, with a recent rapid expansion for ideal trades.

Then I should confirm on the 5 minute EJV histogram that the pairs are also looking separated in the same manner. That confirms that the market is ready for an immediate contraction. These trades are hundreds of pips profit, or drawdown. The precision is necessary.

I will post soon my advanced line overlay charts to make more clear their look, along with more screen shots of the EJV and what I am looking for. For now I will post another line overlay chart. Each color represents a different pair, and you can see how some pairs can be spotted as usefully correlated.

5aa710ad3ab1e_lineoverlay.thumb.jpg.5446ecfcccd27e92d8f85de7767dea1a.jpg

5aa710ad407a3_selectpairsthatcorrelate.thumb.jpg.ff977c21fa3901388ff0d4fab318120b.jpg

Edited by Eric Johnson

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Here are the indicators and profile for the overlay charts seen in the last post pics. These are a limited list for most standard Metatrader platforms. I run these on Oanda MT. To make your own overlay charts, drag the custom indicators from the Navigator menu to a selected chart. The first one will appear in a lower window. Drag the pairs to overlay onto the same lower window. If you double click on the colored line, it will show you the name of the pair (or mouse over, but could be mislabeled)

I always have my Native chart indicator show up in white. Backfill is a job in MT, you may have to make individual charts and backfill them separately with the page up key.

These are a limited list of pairs, are weakly organized, and are kind of old news for me. The advanced, but complex indicators are in the next post. These are OK for an intro to overlays, but the EJV is far more important to learn to use.

Line overlays not FXF.zip

INDIVIDUAL Correlations and mega.zip

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Here are the forex.com Metatrader overlay indicators and profiles. If you find a forex.com USA platform with stocks and commodities, that is a benefit. These are extremely busy charts for many pairs, but they are organized into charts that have somewhat correlated pairs. They look somewhat like the busy chart 2 posts back.

To scan them flick through them looking only at the extreme separations. Backfill and edit them as in the previous post. I also have the 5 minute profiles here. They are the same layout as the 1 hour, but I put different notes on them. Disregard or delete any of the chart notes. You can make measurements of separations by clicking and dragging the cross hairs.

5 min correl g second.zip

CORREL FXF 1 latest.zip

CORREL FXF 2 latest.zip

correl one 5 minutes.zip

FXF Overlays.zip

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Here is another view of the EJV histogram. Near the white line "A" area, you can see on the hourly based histogram, a dramatic separation of the currency pairs. I would expect some pullback reaction from this expansion. I would add a few small positions at this point. I would wait for the greater expansion to lower historical lows ("B" on chart) before adding more positions. I exited the position when I saw support/resistance levels on the histogram "C", or on one of the pairs being traded.

 

I want histograms that oscillate often. Long flat histograms are to be avoided.

You can see that it is possible to stack histograms. Also notice on the line overlay charts on the top, there is not much separation, they are being rescaled by the computer graphics, and distorted.

5aa710adde670_secondEJVExample.thumb.jpg.95a327a45461240eb32556727da49f22.jpg

Edited by Eric Johnson

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, I have been so busy with the fast moving markets and programming EA's. Here is an alert that I customized, for correlation trading. It is based on stochastics. You choose 2 normally positively correlated pairs and it alerts you when they are spread far apart for trading them back together. I will include a copy of it here, and post it in context on my other thread Correlation and Hedging Revisited. I use it as an alert radar when I monitor large amounts of charts.

 

Stocastics are useful, but due to them flattening at peaks,I do not use this indicator much, but it was plenty of work to set up the 5 minute radar charts. I find the 5 minute charts EJV tradeable when the markets are quiet, independent of the hourly separation. They are like trading oscillation channels. When the mega trends come, you do not want to be trading 5 minute, only hourly.

 

For this indicator, if you leave the first signal blank, it will take the symbol on the base chart being used. These are my default stoc settings trying to mirror price chart action. The display notes the currency pair being compared with the native chart pair. I took the line overlay charts and composed individual tabs with stacked stocastic indicators. I use this to alert me to opportunities that I can evaluate on the EJV indicator.

The 5 minute mega is the profile, you will need my indicator pack to use the line overlay feature, but the stoc hybrid indicator will work on it's own.

5 min mega alert all 2.zip

!!!STOC HYBRID ALERT DIFFERENCES.zip

5aa710b183888_Stocstacks.thumb.jpg.5ef973f8cd1bb19b88f850bf5c13a9d3.jpg

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Hello Eric,

I am watching this with interest. Will set it up next week and start monitoring and then demo trading and see where it goes. I expect you'll get some visitors from FF as I just put a link in Dreamliners thread which has the same objectives as you have here.

 

Thanks and regards,

Altos

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Thanks for the interest, and link to the original dream team. I did not do much to entice people in the benefits of correlation trading. As the tools get sharper, the draw downs are much less, and the beauty and assurance that correlation trades will profit; is historically a high probability. It is nice to just watch your balance fluctuate until it is well in the profit.

On the better platforms I got into hedging forex against indices or stocks. The problem was not enough backfill.

Anyhow let me know if there is direction I can be of use, there are plenty of complex tools to get the hang of here. The previous stocastic indicator and portfolio can be simply put to any time frame, including one hour.

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Here are the forex.com Metatrader overlay indicators and profiles. If you find a forex.com USA platform with stocks and commodities, that is a benefit. These are extremely busy charts for many pairs, but they are organized into charts that have somewhat correlated pairs. They look somewhat like the busy chart 2 posts back.

To scan them flick through them looking only at the extreme separations. Backfill and edit them as in the previous post. I also have the 5 minute profiles here. They are the same layout as the 1 hour, but I put different notes on them. Disregard or delete any of the chart notes. You can make measurements of separations by clicking and dragging the cross hairs.

 

When I want to unzip the files I get the message "invalid archive" Using either Winzip or Winrar.

Operating sytem Win 7. Any suggestions?

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When I want to unzip the files I get the message "invalid archive" Using either Winzip or Winrar.

Operating sytem Win 7. Any suggestions?

 

Hello rp,

They all unpacked for me no problem. They do have stored paths tho I have also re-tried successfully with WinZip and with JZip. That is three different programs unpack the zip archives. I am on XP.

 

You could try downloading again just in case there was corruption in the download but all my downloads and unpacks are 100%

Regards,

Altos

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Hello rp,

They all unpacked for me no problem. They do have stored paths tho I have also re-tried successfully with WinZip and with JZip. That is three different programs unpack the zip archives. I am on XP.

 

You could try downloading again just in case there was corruption in the download but all my downloads and unpacks are 100%

Regards,

Altos

 

Hi, thanks, I just found out that this was a browser problem. Using IE I got only empty folders, but when I changed to Firefox everything downloaded perfectly.

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Quick post today, added some new pairs to the profiles. The markets have been well expanded for consistent profits. For these big swings use small lot sizes, scale in and out, and be patient for those occasional month long slow movers.

A strategic note. Sometimes I open positions for 2 pairs, one long and one short. I assign them a number, attached to the lot amount like 108, 8 being the ID for the pairs. If I see another correlation that I want to add, I share the number. For example 218 EURUSD short, and 108 GBPUSD long and 108 NZDUSD long. Lets say that the NZDUSD makes money quickly. I can take the profit and add another 100 GBPUSD long.

There are some very nice ways to stack and exchange orders to have a consistent flow of income. Mostly if you see that the many line hourly overlay charts are not stretched, be cautious with lot size, even if the EJV looks reasonably stretched.

JM HOURLY STACKS 1.zip

RANDOM HOURLY JM.zip

RANDOM HOURLY SECOND.zip

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Hi Eric - What countries Forex.com charts are you using ? The FXF suffix is causing me a problem. None of the profiles will load on my Vanilla charts.I just tried forex Asia and got some other suffix on the pairs so deleted forex.com asia. I had intended to use Lite in Cyprus as I am an FXPro user but Lite have an even bigger range of pairs and CFD's etc.

 

My other option is to strip the FXF out of ALL the charts. I have a ute for batch renaming but no ute to batch remove the FXF inside a file and I haven't yet spotted a non Forex.com chart amongst your files.

Any comment ?

Regards,

Michael.

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Hi Eric - What countries Forex.com charts are you using ? The FXF suffix is causing me a problem. None of the profiles will load on my Vanilla charts.I just tried forex Asia and got some other suffix on the pairs so deleted forex.com asia. I had intended to use Lite in Cyprus as I am an FXPro user but Lite have an even bigger range of pairs and CFD's etc.

 

My other option is to strip the FXF out of ALL the charts. I have a ute for batch renaming but no ute to batch remove the FXF inside a file and I haven't yet spotted a non Forex.com chart amongst your files.

Any comment ?

Regards,

Michael.

 

OK, I found a utility called "PilotEdit Lite which allowed me to strip out the FXF and I have now loaded the Profiles successfully - all I have to do now is make sense of them. :-)

Regards,

Michael.

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Hi, I run different MT platforms, even at the same time, for different chart ideas. I use the forex . com USA best, or UK. True, their profiles may be unique

. Oanda has recently added a large amount of pairs, and they do not carry the FXF. Here is a basic starter platform profile and indicators for Oanda or other platforms attached below.

 

If you have some determination, just change the FXF extensions by deleting them in the code. It is this line that gets changed and compiled.

 

extern string Sym_1 = "AUDUSDFXF";

change to

extern string Sym_1 = "AUDUSD";

 

do not change the name of the indicator or the profile cannot find it.

 

the indicator also has the ability to change the symbol on the chart, if you can access it in the indicator list , and edit the properties.

 

I do recommend using different MT demo platforms, I like watcing the indices right from my FX platform. Good luck with the details, at least you do not have to make this stuff up as you go as I did.

non FXF basics.zip

INDIVIDUAL Correlations and mega.zip

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Hi, I run different MT platforms, even at the same time, for different chart ideas. I use the forex . com USA best, or UK. True, their profiles may be unique

. Oanda has recently added a large amount of pairs, and they do not carry the FXF. Here is a basic starter platform profile and indicators for Oanda or other platforms attached below.

 

If you have some determination, just change the FXF extensions by deleting them in the code. It is this line that gets changed and compiled.

 

extern string Sym_1 = "AUDUSDFXF";

change to

extern string Sym_1 = "AUDUSD";

 

do not change the name of the indicator or the profile cannot find it.

 

the indicator also has the ability to change the symbol on the chart, if you can access it in the indicator list , and edit the properties.

 

I do recommend using different MT demo platforms, I like watcing the indices right from my FX platform. Good luck with the details, at least you do not have to make this stuff up as you go as I did.

 

Ah yes, I should have learned to code in MQL. Bit past it now tho', retired and happy to be.

 

I used the utility mentioned above to strip out the FXF and was able to load the profiles OK

Wasn't sure what the "BEST" related to though but now I recall PGF used to use it too, maybe still do. Yes, I run FXPro, Alpari, Windsor and SIG, FXDD is usually installed but not running. With the exception of Alpari these are all GMT +3 which makes the first bar of the week start where it should and so no Sunday bars. I have loaded and checked all profiles and they seem OK. Just have to wait for the market to commence and see what happens.

 

Interesting you are in BK. I would move to somewhere between Hua Hin and Surat Thani as I am a sea kayaker but my Chinese wife is very happy here and does not want to learn a third language.

Thanks for the files, I'll load them also and see how we go.

Regards,

Michael.

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I will rewrite a short section on how to use the line overlay charts. For the hourly profiles I just quickly flip through the pair tabs. I look for any pair that is greatly separated from the pack. I can use the cross hairs to click and drag for a measurement between lines. I really am not too interested unless the lines being compared are on opposite sides of the chart. Then I look back historically to confirm briefly if these lines have been traveling together in positive correlation. Then it is off to the EJV indicator charts to see the comparison in real pips, and see if it is indeed stretched far apart.

 

For reading the EJV charts look for rapid expansions. Avoid slow moving gradual expansions. When noticing distances of separation, look at the total run, even if it began on the opposite side of the zero line. Add positions gradually. You will be amazed how few lots you need when the pip runs are in the hundreds. To exit, phase out. You can use normal chart levels of support and resistance, or EJV levels of support and resistance. I never ride back to the zero line. I only want the extremely good trades and stretches.

 

If you expect low volatility you can trade 5 minute bar EJV, but be prepared to exit at a loss if the market trends hard against you. Also following a hard trend 5 minute bars can be traded for the quieter market follow through. Five minute bars are consistent money, but with the news and market wildness, I am sticking to hour bars these days.

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Hi Eric - Thanks for posting the further files. Unfortunately ""non FXF basics.zip (128 Bytes, 2 views)"" was a near empty zip as you can see from the 128 Bytes. It had lots of icons but no content in them. Could I ask you to check and re-post ?

Thanks,

Michael.

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