Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Bnet

EURUSD Observations

Recommended Posts

I just wanted to share some basic trading analysis here:

 

The EURO was fundamentally weakening, and on the daily ranging for a while. It would either break up or down.

 

20110927-ne57n4xjnreyts69xskbpti9d1.jpg

 

When it broke earlier this month, there were a couple of good opportunities to make money [and one possibly coming up as it retraces again.

 

Trading the hourly charts may not be for novices [particularly on the trading psych area - it can be a bit stressful!], but just today there were a couple of other opportunities to make some bucks.

 

20110927-bmx76n71de18d468mc61unu2jk.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the hourly, again, there was a consolidation at support, where buying EUR/USD [upon breaking 1.3575] would have made some monies.

 

20110928-et9xcifinxjx23bgcse4fhr9cg.jpg

 

If you combine this with the daily, as well, selling off at the resistance line is a good idea. If the EUR/USD is going to be trending downwards on the daily, that would be a good entry point.

 

Often times, simple PA along with understanding ranging vs. trending can be the most profitable strategy. But you have to remain disciplined, setting stop losses properly, entries properly, and knowing when to take out a chunk of your profits!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tradewinds - thx for the Q. I am looking at the hourly, where the previous resistance line turns into the new support line. Note there is also a support line that intersects there, making it stronger.

 

20110929-gp6yphs2nm368utjewqrwhbfn.jpg

 

Point is that generally basic support, resistance, trend lines along with price action is a good starting point for understanding what is going on. Too often, novices tack on a gazillion indicators without understanding the basics of price action.

 

Lines & PA should support one another. i.e. One may be tempted to buy when the price gets back to 1.3550 for the second time, but there is no suitable price action to make such a move on.

 

Similar to a game of poker, one should set very conservative rules and when those are met, put in a proper trade. [Entry & SL etc. I will get into soon - that is most challenging]

 

One note of caution - trading ranging pairs is a bit more challenging than trading trending pairs... particularly on a short timeframe such as the Hourly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Bnet said:

Lines & PA should support one another.

 

Thanks for the chart. That looks good. I hadn't thought of using two separate support methods, and looking for where they converge. I really like that idea. It gives a lot more information, and makes the price action more understandable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, continuing onto the trading observations... generally, trading the daily is the best, because longer timeframes are better for trading psychology IMHO. [other reasons exist, but my experience shows this is the main reason. When you are trading the daily, naturally you are in it for longer than a couple of hours, and aren't frantically looking at the charts, stressing, making bad decisions]

 

Trading psychology is a separate topic- i have lots of experience there :)

 

Anyhow, here is a short based on trendline, fibonacci as well as price action

 

20110930-mes3y3hnbj5ei54qgd9njefpuf.jpg

 

You will notice that the moves up continue to be rejected, and then the price actually breaks below the previous low. This is where a sell, with a SL at the top of the previous 3 days, and taking half your profit at a reasonable point and letting the rest ride would be a good idea.

 

Notice also the fundamentals of the euro and the overall trend is downwards. It is generally recommended you don't trade against the trend! And if you do, be cautious.

 

At the current price point, it may range slightly and continue going down. It may be recommended to take some profits, move the SL and re-enter if it retraces. In fact, when you are going with the trend, you can take your profits, then wait for a retrace, then buy/sell again to go with the trend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

P.S. My best advice regarding trading psych - take a break after a good run :)

 

i.e. If you did short the EUR/USD and made some money... don't trade for a short while, specially if you are feeling happy!!

 

Reason? When you are feeling happy, there may be over-confidence... and you may also lessen the value of your earnings. You may think that is "play money" now [let's say you made 5%, you may think you can risk that 5%]. You may then take a trade, get all stressed out from a loss and try to recoup that 5% again... make bad trades.

 

Point being- if you are feeling any type of emotion, good or bad... stop and take the day off. Plenty of opportunities coming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Bnet said:
P.S. My best advice regarding trading psych - take a break after a good run :)

 

i.e. If you did short the EUR/USD and made some money... don't trade for a short while, specially if you are feeling happy!!

 

Reason? When you are feeling happy, there may be over-confidence... and you may also lessen the value of your earnings. You may think that is "play money" now [let's say you made 5%, you may think you can risk that 5%]. You may then take a trade, get all stressed out from a loss and try to recoup that 5% again... make bad trades.

 

Point being- if you are feeling any type of emotion, good or bad... stop and take the day off. Plenty of opportunities coming.

 

Good points. I agree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the EUR/USD prediction was correct, and some may choose to take profit right about now, and re-enter on a possible retrace. [that you can see in more detail on the hourly]

 

Or you could play it out, but depends on the strength of your psychology. If you do play it out, the stop loss should be moved tight, anyway.

 

20111003-d87tpfc4bp6mkeki2hfg1dcqpr.jpg

 

Remember- if you make ~2-3% let's say, that is *Darn good*. Don't go for a home run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.