Using Neural Nets

[mr-T 10]

Hi Everyone!

 

I am interested in hearing from anyone who has successfully applied neural networks or genetic programming to forex forecasting. I posted a message in the technical trading sub-forum (http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/neural-genetic-algorithms-trading-1122.html) to see if anyone there had any ideas.

 

I have heard of instances in which NNs and GPs have been applied to forex forcasting, using intra-day data. I'm new to these techniques, so I need some help to get going.

 

Many thanks,

 

mr-T

[torero 10]

Hi mr-T, welcome to the forum. I've used a few products in the past to build systems and to integrate and optimize my strategies in TS. I didn't have any luck with it due to my limited ability to understand how to use (requires good amount of time to understand despite vendors telling you how easy it is, it's easy if you want to lose money). I've used Genetic Optimizers to backtests but in the end, some had success, I didn't find much better results. Lack of knowledge is my only limitation. It has potential but always keep healthy skeptical and test out everything first.

[mr-T 10]

Hi Torero,

 

Many thanks for your reply! I know what you mean. The theory behing NNs and genetic algorithms is pretty hard to digest, nevermind the implementation. I have chanced apon a propietary software package called 'Tiberius', which uses NN algorithms for data modelling. Some users have applied it to forex modelling, but I'm not sure how they have gone about it. I am using a demo version of the package at the moment, and it looks very good - lots of features and very flexible. Like you say, developing computational modellers based on NNs or GAs requires a lot of time and devotion in order to be able to tailor it to specific needs. All I really know at the moment is that some have done it. I just need to find out how, then try it for myself. I'm pretty good at losing money at the moment, so I have nothing more to lose in that sense

 

Best regards,

 

mr-T

[walterw 10]

Mr T , my first and last neural net experience was with Neuroshell ... I think that soft its not really what I wanted... then after I read an article about our mind and its capacity to percieve many variables and work better than any nn... so I started to train my mind on the "feel" of the market (as soultrader teaches tape reading ) in hand with a simple technical aproach... and let me tell you, screen time optimized my brain nn ¡¡... any way, I like your idea of developing some nn... I would like to see at this point what a nn could optimize my actual trading technique... could be cool to see that... could you share whats the site of this soft you are demo... ? cheers Walter.

[notouch 10]

The best neural networking technique is sitting there staring at price for years, training your brain to recognise patterns so it comes as second nature.

[mr-T 10]

Hi guys,

 

Many thanks for the replies! I do prefer screen time and my own intuition to make trading decisions, however, this has not landed me in good steed of late... My use of a NN / GA program would be to serve as an auxiliary to my normal decision-making process. Something that could provide trading suggestions on crosses that I may not have been following too closely. I am a proponent of the powers of the human brain and always prefer gut-feeling over robotic rhetoric, it's just that I have been hearing some good things about NNs and FX.

 

Walter, the link to the package I mentioned is: Tiberius - Predictive Modelling Software

 

Does anyone know of a forex margin a/c provider that provides access to raw data feeds, in addition to charts? I would need this for an automated intra-day trading system. The alternative is to use freely available end-of-day data from sites such as Yahoo finance.

 

Many thanks,

 

mr-T

[walterw 10]

What type of data does he needs to work on.... csv ?

[mr-T 10]

CSV is fine. I've found that the Metatrader 4 platform provides the option to export realtime and historical data into excel. I've opened a demo a/c with them.

[I, Brian 10]

My limited understanding is that major houses are going to be using AI as well, and that the net result is that everyone basically ends up following the same trends. So to really break into the bigger profit margins, you have to apply a lot of human thinking to override program suggestions and make plays according to what you predict will be winning cycles.

 

2c.

[vladv 10]

The best neural networking technique is sitting there staring at price for years, training your brain to recognise patterns so it comes as second nature.

 

 

How many years do a trader need to do that to be profitable in his transactions?

[walterw 10]

vlad : it took me about 1 1/2 year to understand the market ... no one trade... just looking at it .... with that understanding I did develop my aproach wich today gives me a nice result... so its not imposible, its just a matter of optimism and actitude, also belief and the fact that there is a lot people that made it.... its posible... cheers Walter.