Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

TinGull

ER Analysis 1/30/07

Recommended Posts

The plan getting fairly routine as of late. The ER2 is not wanting to break to new highs or lows and we just range. We hit the VAH on the monthly profile yesterday and bounced right back down. Amazing sometimes how Market Profile shows you what will happen. As for the trading day…once again ER2 formed one of its extremes (the low of the day) in the first 30 minutes. It’s nearing 84% of the time that ER is hitting an extreme in the first hour of trade.

 

The profile was a fat one again. Buyers did have strength over the sellers at 121/205 TPOs. Notice, though, that ER2 is near the top of a downtrend line on the monthly volume profile:

 

ervolprof129.thumbnail.jpg

 

The bottom of this wedge could easily get hit tomorrow or the next day, and it’s going to get into make it or break it time for the Russell.

 

Values for todays trading:

 

VAH - 798.5

 

POC - 797.3

 

VAL - 794.3

 

With just a 4 point value area, we could see price move from the top to the bottom or vice versa. It’s a pretty small value area. Today we had a 5 point VA, and we stayed above it all day long. Good day for the bulls. Price right now (Monday evening) is trading inside of value. IF we are to open up inside of value, I would look at shorts around VAH. This coincides with the ominous 800 level. I would also look to long the VAL around 794. Now…if we start heading down hard, I won’t take that short. I will most likely look for a retracement to the POC or VAL.

 

With the markets looking for a higher open as of now (pre news) we are outside of value to the upside. A play that *could* work is going long off VAH. I want to see a break of 800 first, as I feel there are going to be some sellers in this 800-805 area. Only time will tell right now.

 

Overall, the rest of this week will be interesting. Lots of data for the markets to digest and a Fed day wednesday. Those are always messy.

 

Best of luck!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's my two cent quick analysis outlined with arrows on the chart.

 

My crystal ball says lower and when that fails, I pull out the good old magic 8 ball and give it a shake.

 

OPPS, I should read these topics, this is a market profile analysis thread. :o

er2.thumb.jpg.88c0e8af61f5679b1b1eef250bbd0237.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Paul has a cat that can predict market turns. I tried to buy it off him but wouldnt sell.

 

Anyways, Tin what are youre thoughts on the ER2 and how MP plays into it? As you know I've been married to the YM for some time. Does ER2 respect the MP levels and concept as the YM does? On the YM, whenever the PP is in the middle of the value range, it tends to stop price dead in in its track. Have you noticed anything like this for the ER2? Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:) no worries.

 

For MP and ER...ER is married and FAITHFUL to Market Profile. As far as daily pivots, I'll look at some charts and let you know this morning in the chat room. Im just getting ready for the day right now. But I can say that ER2 respects all levels of MP from the VAL-POC-VAH. All of those levels you need to watch for, where YM tended to follow VAL-VAH only.

 

And the special situations apply very well to the Russell too. Some reallly nice MP stuff goes down with the Russell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

even the magic 8 ball failed me as well....ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh. ;)

 

HOPELESS!!!

 

jk, was too damn tired to trade today (31 jan 07)

 

gosh I hope the market will be there tommorrow. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.