ER Analysis 1/30/07

[TinGull 10]

The plan getting fairly routine as of late. The ER2 is not wanting to break to new highs or lows and we just range. We hit the VAH on the monthly profile yesterday and bounced right back down. Amazing sometimes how Market Profile shows you what will happen. As for the trading day…once again ER2 formed one of its extremes (the low of the day) in the first 30 minutes. It’s nearing 84% of the time that ER is hitting an extreme in the first hour of trade.

 

The profile was a fat one again. Buyers did have strength over the sellers at 121/205 TPOs. Notice, though, that ER2 is near the top of a downtrend line on the monthly volume profile:

 

 

The bottom of this wedge could easily get hit tomorrow or the next day, and it’s going to get into make it or break it time for the Russell.

 

Values for todays trading:

 

VAH - 798.5

 

POC - 797.3

 

VAL - 794.3

 

With just a 4 point value area, we could see price move from the top to the bottom or vice versa. It’s a pretty small value area. Today we had a 5 point VA, and we stayed above it all day long. Good day for the bulls. Price right now (Monday evening) is trading inside of value. IF we are to open up inside of value, I would look at shorts around VAH. This coincides with the ominous 800 level. I would also look to long the VAL around 794. Now…if we start heading down hard, I won’t take that short. I will most likely look for a retracement to the POC or VAL.

 

With the markets looking for a higher open as of now (pre news) we are outside of value to the upside. A play that *could* work is going long off VAH. I want to see a break of 800 first, as I feel there are going to be some sellers in this 800-805 area. Only time will tell right now.

 

Overall, the rest of this week will be interesting. Lots of data for the markets to digest and a Fed day wednesday. Those are always messy.

 

Best of luck!

[wsam29 10]

Here's my two cent quick analysis outlined with arrows on the chart.

 

My crystal ball says lower and when that fails, I pull out the good old magic 8 ball and give it a shake.

 

OPPS, I should read these topics, this is a market profile analysis thread. :o

[TinGull 10]

Hi wsam...yup, it's a Market Profile analysis thread. I assume you were poking fun at the analysis with your magic 8 ball remark?

[wsam29 10]

oh no, I poke fun at my own analysis.

 

I was referring to if my analysis does not work out, out comes the magic 8 ball.:p

[Soultrader 12]

Paul has a cat that can predict market turns. I tried to buy it off him but wouldnt sell.

 

Anyways, Tin what are youre thoughts on the ER2 and how MP plays into it? As you know I've been married to the YM for some time. Does ER2 respect the MP levels and concept as the YM does? On the YM, whenever the PP is in the middle of the value range, it tends to stop price dead in in its track. Have you noticed anything like this for the ER2? Thanks

[wsam29 10]

are you talking about those lucky cats (chinese thing I think) or a real cat? :p

[TinGull 10]

no worries.

 

For MP and ER...ER is married and FAITHFUL to Market Profile. As far as daily pivots, I'll look at some charts and let you know this morning in the chat room. Im just getting ready for the day right now. But I can say that ER2 respects all levels of MP from the VAL-POC-VAH. All of those levels you need to watch for, where YM tended to follow VAL-VAH only.

 

And the special situations apply very well to the Russell too. Some reallly nice MP stuff goes down with the Russell.

[wsam29 10]

even the magic 8 ball failed me as well....ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

 

HOPELESS!!!

 

jk, was too damn tired to trade today (31 jan 07)

 

gosh I hope the market will be there tommorrow.

[TinGull 10]

HA! When I wanted to ask a girl to the prom, I requested the help of the 8Ball...and boy was it wrong. Became the laughing stock of my high school! HA!!! Damn 8balls....