week 5

[hokshila 10]

Some food for thought:

 

It seems as if the weekly pivot is acting as a magneto.

 

Coincidentally (35-50%) R2 is at the 38% level and price is exactly at the 78.6 ret

of the previous past 2 days move.

 

Waiting for the Asian session to be complete before making any decision.

 

[hokshila 10]

On another note, yesterday proved to show, once more, how temperamental the FX

can be. Normally on such a busy day, "news-wise", the market may stay pretty rangy,

but look at yesterday ...

 

Probably it had to do with being end of the month and Banks squaring their

positions?

 

Anyway it was wild ... and profitable ...

 

Thanks guys for teaching me how to go with the flow! (You know who you are, don't you?)

 

Torero, Ole for your trades!

[steveshutts 10]

Morning Hok,

 

Yeah, who knows which way she will blow this morning. Nice hammer bar printed on the cable daily yesterday off the trendline with a very bullish close to the day, pretty wild action yesterday.

Until price breaks through 9700/9730 barriers, the 240 still remains in a down trend but we have a text book bull flag this morning so will wait and see what develops with the London open. Plenty more data coming out over today and tomorrow as well.

[torero 10]

I went long on this consolidation since last night. I see this consolidation as continuation. I know there is news coming but we'll see how it goes. Target is 9695.

 

[hokshila 10]

A nice range it's being formed on the hourly and 240 charts.

 

Question is what to expect before NFP tomorrow?

 

PS: If you know the answer, please do not hesitate to post it ASAP!!!

[torero 10]

No idea but I'm just going to trade until the news come out. I'm watching this one carefully here. It's been bouncing off 237.70 area a few times already, if it breaks above the triangle and confirm it, no bear will be around for the party??

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yeah, it's softly softly this morning in London trade. Most folks are still digesting the recent data in relation to the Feds statement.

 

The emphasis will home in even more so on the Data now, given the outlook on inflation/growth prospects.

 

Players will certainly be eyeing todays & tomorrows prints for further clues, hence the contained ranges into the NY Open.

 

Like hokshila mentioned, end of month balancing & protection ahead of tomorrows Payrolls will have played it's part.

[torero 10]

I'm getting indigestion just waiting for other folks to digest the news. I'm ready to go LOL. I'll practice patience and hold this until prices tell me it's time to get impatient.

[torero 10]

Might be time to exit here? Big resistance ahead and price seem to be rejected here. Gonna set my stop to breakeven and see how this baby takes this resistance. If not, the trade wasn't meant to be.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Depends on your aims for this specific trade toreor?

 

Your stops are nudging this hourly upside thrust at the 9625 zone. Most of the long stops off the 1.95 kick will be resting below today's Pivot line @ 1.96, which is also the 50% marker of the 9315-9915 leg.

 

Prices could just amble back if the next Data print (ISM) fails to ignite Cable thru the weekly highs? I guess you have to judge the trade in the context of why you executed it.

[torero 10]

I real aim for this trade was to shoot for 2.0000 LOL!!! No, I had target at 9770, but I'm going to give it room to shuffle a little but despite the resistance here. I'm seeing it being pushed repeatedly, telling me this might break, so I'll let it go and see what happens.

[torero 10]

Trailed out.

 

[torero 10]

I'm going to go back and learn this 78.6% levels from tex. I've been researching failures and seems 78.6 are good spots to watch them. Interesting, I always thought support was between 61.8 and 50% and not further. Anything beyond that was reversal levels.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Like most anything to do with technicals (on FX anyway), you'd do well to focus more on the level or area of interest than merely wait for a random signal to emerge.

 

Doesn't matter what the trigger or set up is, if a confluence of events (a Fib number/pivot/% range marker/whatever you use) occurs on or around a Big Figure or prev zone of s&r, prev swing extreme etc, then you can bet other players are looking at same zone?

 

Of course, same warning!! nothing is guaranteed or nailed on - but if a specific favorite signal/set-up comes into focus, the bar or candle prints need to confirm your intended directional play.

 

The 78.6 has proven it's worth over time under the conditions we choose to operate. To others it may simply register no interest whatsoever.

 

As with all things: check it out & thoroughly test it out

[hokshila 10]

Yes torero the 78.6 is one of those insider tricks and a really good level to

watch, which brings one question for Texx or Buk:

 

Do you guys enter trades at that level or watch the action around it on the

shorter time frames before entering a trade?

 

I'm asking this because normally if you wait for any candlestick formation,

price is already at 61.8 or higher depending on momentum.

 

Texx, it seems we posted at the same time. I think you've mostly answered my question on the previous post. :rolleyes:

[Anna-Maria 10]

Do you guys enter trades at that level or watch the action around it on the

shorter time frames before entering a trade?

 

I'm asking this because normally if you wait for any candlestick formation,

price is already at 61.8 or higher depending on momentum.

 

 

Yes, I 'sort of' covered it in the prev reply - but it really does depend on your angle or strategy stance?

 

If you're adopting a short frame stance & the 78.6 level is holding price around a key level or confluence zone from a higher timeframe, then obviously you'll be seeking price confirmation via one of the fast chart references, a tick, 1 or 5m trigger.

 

If you're swinging in via a larger chart reference (60m+) & looking to pare out/compound/enter whatever, your decision making will be wholly dependant upon your aims for that specific trade?

 

So yeah, the decisions & management etc will miror your intended stance.

 

Ok guy's, I'm gonna have to wind down the activity on here for now. We're short staffed today & it's likely to be a bit busy later. Will catch up with any comments early next week!

 

Have yourselves a safe & profitable session. Enjoy the weekend!

[hokshila 10]

Thanks Anna-Maria, enjoy your w-end too.

[torero 10]

Thanks for your help, tex and have good weekend!