week 5

[Anna-Maria 10]

Worth watching this level (9650-60) as it was Fridays high zone. It's also shy of a lower top level on the 240m @ 9730, which the Cable Bulls really need to threaten to garner support for a push back towards near term highs @ 9914.

 

Could become mired in range clack if the Stateside data prints neutral.

 

 

[hokshila 10]

Anna-Maria, let me ask you this:

 

Yesterday, because I had to be out of my office, I missed the entry at the 9550

level. However this morning there was a p/b at 6:20 GMT around the 9615 level.

 

In another moment I'd have just bought in my positions there, however this time

I didn't because:

 

a) The Asian Box wasn't closed

 

b) We were near R1&R2 levels

 

Thus, I'm exercising my patience waiting for another set up and on the other

side being disciplined at not chasing the trade.

 

Since I missed my initial set up yesterday, am I going in the right direction waiting, or

would have been OK to jump in with an small position at 6:20 today?

 

I understand that this has to do with every trader's risk management, but I'm

trying to properly understand and apply this concrete system "rules".

[steveshutts 10]

Price currently touching on the 38 fib level from yesterdays push up and at this mornings stall zone.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

However this morning there was a p/b at 6:20 GMT around the 9615 level. In another moment I'd have just bought in my positions there, however this time I didn't because:

 

a) The Asian Box wasn't closed

 

b) We were near R1&R2 levels

 

Thus, I'm exercising my patience waiting for another set up and on the other

side being disciplined at not chasing the trade.

 

I understand that this has to do with every trader's risk management, but I'm

trying to properly understand and apply this concrete system "rules".

 

If your signals, triggers offer you a potential entry & you can justify it by weighing up the ancilliary information at hand, then execute it via smaller size?

 

You're correct, in that I can't answer the question with a definite yes or no, because I'm not you! and I don't know exactly what your overall perception of the trade/area/risk etc is.

 

If I miss an ideal (potential larger swing) entry then I'll either wait for price to confirm it's directional bias on the hourly or bat it back via the smaller frames on an intraday opp with a view to checking the intent.

 

But that's just me.

 

There are various methods you can adopt if you witness prices struggling on the ladder at the s&r zones, even when it's trading within a defined trending phase. If your "rules" state you don't enter until a time overlap phase has played out, regardless of the price journey, then you have to obey your rules - period! otherwise, how will you judge their effectiveness??

 

That's not to say rules can't be tweaked or assessed if you're missing too many opp's.

 

But you first need to establish a template & attempt to include/exclude guidelines & parameters. This will offer you structure. Once you're familiar with your base structure, & your understanding of levels, supply-demand zones, & how they impact on important levels + your price aid assistors etc, then you can begin tweaking & adjusting them to fit with your take on the activity?

 

It's a "time & experience" tutorial. You simply can't rush or fast track it. Which is why familiarity with your instruments is crucial to forming an appropriate method of playing them under differing conditions.

 

If your structure & awareness are up to speed, then your control & decisions become enhanced, even when you mess the entry up, or the entry simply fails to kick on. Structure instills discipline. But if you try second guess your trade plan or begin ignoring your basic template(s), you'll be building up trouble for yourself farther down the line.

 

Because once your signals begin failing you (on a mini loss run or drawdown), you won't be in a position to accurately & quickly adjudge what's going on?!!

[hokshila 10]

Many thanks for the reply, I get your point, crystal clear.

[torero 10]

Held it overnight and finally got stopped out from 50 pip trailing. I'm going to tweaking my trailing stop, 30-35 pips would be sufficient I believe.

 

[Buk 10]

Yesterday, because I had to be out of my office, I missed the entry at the 9550

level.

 

In another moment I'd have just bought in my positions there, however this time I didn't because:

 

it happens all the time hokshila.....I missed an optimum compound entry on GBP/JPY earlier due to the time which it triggered....the night guy didn't take it therefore it went off without us - tough! no biggy, we'll simply wait till another signal either sets up or it fails to truck on & dies out..........

 

we miss entries & optimum pare outs/exits due to varying reasons, it's part & parcel....you're not going to nail all of them at choice levels...sometimes you just have to let them go!

 

the prime focus is risk management!.....as long as our risk & protection flags are adhered to, any slight doubt & the trade doesn't get actioned....better to let it go, sit back & wait for the next prime opp.......

 

stick to your plan & trade it accordingly!!!......never get conned into entering a trade in a hurry just coz you "feel" you've missed a bus......there are shed loads of opp's on these things every month.....let the gamblers chase the bright, shiny pips....."better to be out wishing you were in, than in wishing you were out"

[torero 10]

I like that wishing phrase, think I'll adopt that motto. Yes, it's tough to sit on one's hands and watch it ride without you but it's better off in the end because many don't imagine the opposite scenario may occur: exit is door is farther than expected or worse, not even visible when the trade turn sour. I think chess players would make great traders, but they can envision the scenarios before the move is made. Imagine if we can do that to manage our risk before leaping.

[hokshila 10]

stick to your plan & trade it accordingly!!!......never get conned into entering a trade in a hurry just coz you "feel" you've missed a bus......there are shed loads of opp's on these things every month.....let the gamblers chase the bright, shiny pips....."better to be out wishing you were in, than in wishing you were out"

 

Thanks Buk, that's been the most difficult part to learn, but on the brighter

side the one paying in spades.

 

The nicest thing about trading with discipline is the calmly state of mind

achieved, because the trader knows it's following his/her system = his/her edge.

[Buk 10]

it's tough to sit on one's hands and watch it ride without you but it's better off in the end because many don't imagine the opposite scenario may occur:

 

exit door is farther than expected or worse, not even visible when the trade turn sour.

 

exactly.......knee-jerk reaction based on flawed risk preparation is a big killer......which unfortunately appears to be a common occurance with new entrants.......

 

they're more concerned with accumulating easy? or greedy pips than focusing on preserving accounts & striking off a sensible risk base........

[Buk 10]

yes, it's gotten better and faster, but there are days, it'll act up. Soul harasses programmers constantly to get the site to hum like a ferrari, but once in a while it hums like a FIAT LOL!

 

don't know about purring like a ferrari or humming like a fiat......it's shuffling like a pensioner pushing a zimmer this morning?!?

 

try poking those programmers with a poo stick James....either that or incentivize them with an hours free brothel romp!!

[torero 10]

Not sure what GBPUSD is doing right now, but I see an interesting pattern moving about in EURUSD, an inverted head and shoulders, it's at the neckline now. I'll be watching closely for this play.

 

[Buk 10]

yeah, Euro looks like it's been consolidating this support line from last week (on the hourly) at the 2950 zone........

 

approaching R1 where this 23.6 Fib is resting, with R2 the likely destination for near term bullish targets......

 

if it can continue to absorb the deals leading up thru this congested area, it could well build towards last weeks highs @ c3045.........

 

good solid step up off early months base @ 2870, which was also last weeks low zone.....appears promising for the longs especially if it benefits from any tepid Stateside data prints........

 

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

We have Consumer Confidence numbers printing at 10.00am EST ahead of a tranche of important data this week. Traders will be jostling for position ahead of the more 'observed data', which could cause jittery balances around these lower hourly range s&r levels.

 

Bit of a dead loss at current levels on this one. We're mired halfway between 2 crossroad levels on the 240/Daily techs, with half a dozen market moving data prints (incl NFP's) still to hit the tape.

 

Bit of a coin toss as to which direction it'll get thumped to be honest, but the key level to upside momentum still resides at 9733.

 

Worth holding remainders back at the b/e down at y'days entry to get a run on any insipid U.S data, but the lower top behaviour on the 240 isn't too encouraging.

 

Probably less stress involved to bat this pair via the intradays until Friday closes out & then take another assessment from there.

 

 

[Don4 10]

pin bar gbp/usd, daily chart, could be headed for the 61.8 fib longer term after penatrating 38.2 short term feb.what do u guys think? guess ill be in on the break of todays low.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=609&stc=1&d=1170187239

[torero 10]

Like tex, things are not very clear right on many pairs, except EURUSD. They seem to coiling up and wait for some news to release and bang, out the gates they go. I'm flat since this morning and don't see any tradable setups at all.

 

Don, I see a different picture with EURUSD here, a double-bottom above 50% retracement, including a small HnS from smaller timeframe, all looking bullish to me. But I respect your decision and I could be wrong myself. I'll see how it goes for a setup.

 

[Don4 10]

yea right now its slowly working its way back to the 61.8 fib but i also see some lower lows if i was risky it could be a good opertunity to short with a stoploss above the 61.8 fib but im not so ill just wait

 

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=611&stc=1&d=1170195529

[torero 10]

It's harder to judge on smaller timeframes, yes you're right about the lower lows, let's see how it goes here. This area is congested so I'll wait for a clear breakout to go either way.

[Don4 10]

yea, im with you

[steveshutts 10]

Quite a sell off on cable this morning, anybody managed to catch any of this?

[Buk 10]

no Steve.......the stragglers from Mondays long closed out as price edged thru last weeks low zone, but we haven't triggered Cable today.......

 

they're playing Yen thru the Tokyo open on the intraday's....on the back of the G7 whispers - see if it'll jolt a little panic on the carry positions!

 

nice move down tho on Sterling.....might just get hoofed back to the 78.6 (c9450) level if we're lucky!!

[steveshutts 10]

Yep, thats my next major marker to look for possible entries, thanks to you guys. .

[Buk 10]

the sight of those twin doji's on the 15m & the negative 5m band drop on the London open makes me wish I'd hauled my ass in to work earlier tho

 

I think even my 'slow-hand' reactions would have managed to trigger those mothers!! LOL........

 

certainly the cleanest of the triggers amongst the other majors this morning huh?

 

 

 

[torero 10]

I'm watching this rally for possible short here. I wasn't here to see the first drop but no support is near by, so why not?

 

[Buk 10]

sure....if you get a trigger on any lacklustre pullback then the flows ought to tip you the nod!

 

there is a bit of Daily support around this 1.95 figure, so might be helpful to keep an eye on that level.....the 30 & 15m frames have printed a hammer down yonder which might just slow this drop a tad??