week 5

[torero 10]

It's at the Asian Low and just below 50% retracement, let's see how it takes this support.

 

[steveshutts 10]

Hi Torero,

 

Very dull day today, lets see if the US brings us some action.

Cable just pushed through the asian low but this is one of those cases where it is at a key support level on the 240 chart so, as you mentioned, this could be a turning point here, it doesn't look like price is going to follow through at the moment.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Cable just pushed through the asian low but this is one of those cases where it is at a key support level on the 240 chart

 

More importantly, it's the long range weekly support area too. The 240m chart highlights the 'confluence' area with that 61.8 line from the recent higher low leg up on Cable.

 

A good buy area with corresponding lower frame triggers - if only to check the resolve back to short term (hourly) range resistance!

 

 

 

[torero 10]

Excellent chart, tex, and glad to see you back! No wonder it's been hanging around this area for so long. We'll see if it can hold or start lifting.

[Anna-Maria 10]

If it fails to prop here, there's a bit of Daily support lower down @ c9450 which is the 78.6% zone on that 240m graph + a weekly S1 pivot camp.

 

It's slowly & lazily displaying lower tops on the hourly off last weeks highs, so this weekly support zone is a pretty decent flag for Bull-Bear (near term) strength.

 

Can always flip to a stop & reverse stance if the lower frames signal a stall & shunt to the short side - we'll see huh!

 

ps: Still experiencing hangs & delay's here on posting etc. You guy's finding things a little better of late?

[torero 10]

yes, tex, it's gotten better and faster, but there are days, it'll act up. Soul harasses programmers constantly to get the site to hum like a ferrari, but once in a while it hums like a FIAT LOL!

 

I see the major resistance here, but it's trying to finish off the rest of the bull stops before going higher?

[Anna-Maria 10]

I'm peeking at the hourly for the near term resistance stalls torero.

 

As a coincidence? Buk has todays Pivot lines marrying up with a couple of the markers I'm spying. The 9688 zone is also the main Weekly Pivot area, so alongside the natural s&r lines, we have some likely upper side turbulance to navigate should price manage a push North.

 

The demand area below at that Weekly support + last weeks lows was sufficient (in my book) to trigger a long, & the lower graph with the 15m bars displayed a probable lower risk upside trigger.

 

Like I said, the follow thru needs to kick it up with supporting deals, otherwise it's suspect to weakness & the $ Bulls will merely soak up the activity & drive it back thru the confluence supports back towards the lower Daily lines.

 

I sure won't hesistate to book some profits up here if it begins to stall & blow out.

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

And of course, if hokshila's done his math this morning he'll no doubt have calc'd the S1/S2 % supports (based on the 9591 NY close of Friday) @ c9557-9543.

 

A good enough secondary reason to fade it back into the range, even for a lazy intraday strike!

[torero 10]

Decided to take a chance after seeing a higher low and on the first small breakout action. Let's see if it can take it higher, I'm giving this baby a bit of room to maneuver so placing my stop below a major support area. See how it goes.

 

[hokshila 10]

Tex, math? what math? Don't know what you're talking about...

 

I love those babies. Work like a charm.

 

I've been most of the day out of my office, but I saw a couple of spots good for

scalps. However, I'm trying to follow your advice and go just for A Grade

trades.

 

Basically I'm watching the same levels as you. I corrected my fibs to match

yours and watching the action around PW low level.

 

I'll patiently wait and see what tomorrow brings.

[steveshutts 10]

If i got my workings right on your calcs Anna, price rebounded right off R1 this morning during the asian session at 9641?

Now waiting for a continuation signal to see if this move back up will continue. I am currently waiting to see if we get some support down at the 9600 level and will look for a signal there. We may find some support off yesterdays high now acting as support and also this 9615 area is a fib confluence zone as well.

Anna, i know you mentioned that in times of medium term trends you will take on setups before the London open, but this is not one of those times. In instances lke this morning, if you got a good signal would you take it?

[steveshutts 10]

Re-thinking that one, i suppose as your trades are momentum based off major s+r areas, i am thinking that you would probably wait for the london open, when there would be plenty of players around and the necessary momentum to see price move?

[Anna-Maria 10]

Hi Steve,

 

Yeah, I prefer to have some company on board if I'm looking to execute an intraday position away from a perceived busy level.

 

Trouble with executing during the ghost shift (between NY & London), is the liquidity. Prices have a tendancy to fade off if a mini trend is absent.

 

You can get a move which occurs as Tokyo opens & it can be good for maybe 30-40 pips, then a sharp pullback or fade into the London Open?

 

They're ok to transact as a quick play on the Tokyo price activity, but you need to be mindful that it's only a range play.

 

If I leg in during London or NY (as was the case y'day), I'll maybe book a little profit if the level suggests so, then keep stops tucked away at the relevant technical zone.

 

That way I can allow Tokyo to take up the slack & assess the picture as London comes to the table.

 

This morning prices have nudged back slightly off my R1/2 % zone (9656-9642) & the R1 pivot zone @ 9632. It's not threatening the Round Number @ 1.96 as yet & looks to be attracting some support for a pop thru one of my resistance markers from y'day - so, all's well at the mo.

 

Until a swing or trend becomes established then every trade execution is merely a short end momentum (or range) position. As with the vast majority of our entries, they'll be subject to a partial pare out & trail. No-one knows where or when they'll fully break out into a potential 100+ pip move. But we want to be positioned (with trailers) wherever possible should the occasion unfold.

 

If prices merely bounce off a resistance zone up here around 9650 & shoot back, we'll be able to scale out a little more profit & our remaining stakes will get snatched for a b/e. If not, we'll trail up & look to compound back.

 

Either way, we got our value entry back down below at the prev weeks low/confluence zone & are sitting on a dime a dollar trade!

[hokshila 10]

Re-thinking that one, i suppose as your trades are momentum based off major s+r areas, i am thinking that you would probably wait for the london open, when there would be plenty of players around and the necessary momentum to see price move?

 

Good question Steve, I was about to ask the same, because price is sitting above the 50% fib level too, however, if I'm correct, it would be wise to wait and see how price reacts around the 30&50% R levels after London opens.

[hokshila 10]

Tex, so this is sort of "massaging" the trades by going in, scaling out, scaling

in again until some trend develops?

[steveshutts 10]

Its a 'test the waters' technique, and that was a nice entry yesterday Anna.

Did you pare out some last night after the inverted hammer spike on the 15, off 9610, or did you manage to hang on to the full position? Just curious, how much would you be looking at paring off in that situation? 50% and then move the stop to break even or the remaining 50%?

[hokshila 10]

I started doing that last Friday and it was great because I was paring out,

let's say 80% of my position, letting the rest flow and was ready to increase it

in case some sort of trend developed.

 

And I have to say that it was great. Much better than selling all my positions

at one price and waiting to enter again fully loaded at some other level.

 

So, that's something I forgot to mention, that it's having a great impact on my

performance, specially on the psychological side. Things tend not to be so black

and white then.

[Anna-Maria 10]

hokshila,

 

Yes, you could describe it as such.

 

Thing is, I play these positions primarily with the assumption that price is going to attack an upside resistance zone & make it's decision. It's gonna do 1 of 2 things:

 

1) Attract sufficient support to bust the level & continue to next stage s&r.

 

2) Hit supply at the upper resistance zone & get batted back to lower demand level where it will look to garner support from the prev buyers for a further punt to the upside.

 

So, essentially we're seeking intent? Who has the field. Who controls the near term strength?

 

London is the majority volume player, therefore nothing will be determined until they hit their buttons. In the interim, price will bob around & look to fake or fade the key levels.

 

It can be a dangerous time slot to engage. The flows are thin & suspect to false pops.

 

One major advantage to this current long off y'days lower confluence zone, is the fact I have the option to short prices back to my entry if the smaller frames begin to display exhaustion or meet decent supply up here at current levels?

 

The (1.96) Round Number will be the key to that particular play however. At the moment I need do nothing. Simply wait until London decides to kick it up or bat it back.

 

30min & hourly bars are looking ok thus far, so a case of waiting to spot any fall-out on the sub 30min bars to decide what stance to take.

[Anna-Maria 10]

So, that's something I forgot to mention, that it's having a great impact on my performance, specially on the psychological side. Things tend not to be so black and white then.

 

Cool. If you can work a playable strategy around that kind of execution & it fits your profile then great!

 

Sure, you'll get stopped on a fair % of trailers as price chops around inside a range zone, but then as long as you pare off & book a little profit along the way, you're constantly seeking to allow price to tell you what it's intent is?

 

None of us really know when the big moves are about to break out, yeah?

 

As long as we plan for that probable eventuality & can cobble together a safe, positive risk option to take advantage of these occurances, then we're doing all we can to cover the bases.

 

That particular method of execution won't suit all tastes, but as long as you can make it work & everything is in line with your equity/management/risk & psychology then for you, it works!

[steveshutts 10]

Small sell off at the expected confluence zone, 50% R2 marker, standard R2 marker and half prime area.

What paring ratio for your initial scale do you use Anna, 50/50, 70/30, 80/20?

[Anna-Maria 10]

It's purely dependant on the level & the current area of price Steve.

 

Usually within a defined range zone it equates to a 70/30 split. 70% booked at 1st level & 30% trailed.

 

At potential key levels, such as y'days weekly support or a typical level which we consider merits a decent kick back towards the dominant larger trend direction, we'll book sufficient profits to allow price to prove us wrong. Therefore the scale out will be reduced: ie, 20-30% booked, remainder trailed.

 

It affords us a b/e trade at worst scenario, with the option to chase it back if it dies quickly.

 

It really has to be adjudged on it's merits. You can't stick to a regimented percentage, otherwise you reduce & dilute potential profits when price breaks out or reverses back into the dominant direction?

 

This is where each trader needs to define their primary objective? Are you essentially an intraday player, seeking only to take advantage of the pops between your designated levels - or are you looking to trade the larger swings, where your intent is to capture a decent % of the potential move?

 

Only you can determine that stance. Which is why it's crucial to adapt any ancilliary advice or someone else's take on the technical map to fit your comfort zones?

 

It's fine to add a little of this & a bit of that to your own strategy etc, but the hard work then commences by seeing if the different ingredients blend with your template.

[steveshutts 10]

Thanks Anna, that makes sense. As you say, it depends on the objective of the trade.

[Anna-Maria 10]

One of the positives about Forums such as this is the fact different views, information & perspectives can be shared & exhanged between traders & players. If something catches the eye or sparks an interest, then it can sometimes improve or enhance your already competant outlook?

 

It can also have a negative impact. Too much time & effort can be wasted trying to integrate someone else's views on particular scenario's?

 

You then get distracted & lose control/focus.

 

I guess the compromize is to explore something which rouses interest & test it seperately on a sim or demo to check it validates your own personal comfort zone & can actually fit your style.

 

Anything from the way you look at basic technical positioning/entries/profit targets to trade management/size & risk matrix etc require very careful & precise consideration. If you're applying a method which currently suits your outlook & it's returning sufficient profits & bottom line positives, then I'd be very cautious about integrating something which you haven't thoroughly tested & explored first.

 

It's great to share individual perspectives etc, but you need to remember that what suits one, won't necessarily suit another - no matter how good the reasonings or application appears!

[hokshila 10]

Totally agree with you Anna-Maria.

 

I only pay attention/try to fit stuff that feels natural to my trading

personality.

 

Many traders jump from one strategy to another before knowing themselves as

traders (or, for the case, not even their own personality core). In my opinion,

a failing approach right from the start.

 

I read this in a trading article somewhere:

 

"Trading is the most deceptive profession in the world. A person cannot walk

into an airport, jump into a 747, and take off down the runway without any prior

training. Yet people routinely will open an account and start trading without

any guidance whatsoever."

[Anna-Maria 10]

Chipping out a bit more on the low of this neutral bar just underneath the R3 pivot zone. It's also the 38.2% level of the earlier larger Fib calc chart. 5min chart also showing exhaustive behaviour up here, see how it reacts to Asian/post London levels.

 

We have Consumer Confidence numbers printing at 10.00am EST ahead of a tranche of important data this week. Traders will be jostling for position ahead of the more 'observed data', which could cause jittery balances around these lower hourly range s&r levels.