Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Do Or Die

Stocks Model

Recommended Posts

An August update re: Seasonality and reversals off of ytd lows:

 

As this project developes in it's rudimentry form, i am looking for improving upon

it's profit and loss results.My basic parameters are:

 

1 Liquid traders having retrenched 40% from their last 90 day highs and near their ytd low

2. Separate into 3 groups: 0-99, 1.00-1.99, 2.00-3.99

3. Define reversal as 2 upticking sessions(higher closing price) confirmed in the third day

by either opening or at sometime during that seesion trading through the second days

close.

4. A trade is 1.5% of account

5. Stop loss set immediately 10% under entry.

6 .Half of position open sell 25% above entry

 

My 0-.99 list:

 

ANO in .63 current .63

ASTI .72/.98

CHLN .99/1.03

CYCC .81/.83

DSTI .30/.30

NBY .86/.92

NTWK .89/.93

GRO .77/1.10

 

there were 6 positions stopped out.

 

My 1.00-1.99 positions are:

 

BIOD 1.15/1.22

BZH 1.63/1.98

CHINA 1.30/1.33

COMV 1.72/2.29

CSUN 1.23/1.33

CLWR 1.72/2.81

CPST 1.20/1.20

FCEL 1.16/1.23

FREE 1.21/1.18

DRL 1.50/1.59

EGLE 1.87/1.97

GU 1.88/1.71

HW 1.91/2.18

HILL 1.69/1.83

MOVE 1.52/1.67

NLST 1.42/1.73

SYNM 1.12/1.20

SMSI 1.87/1.88

SOMX 1.00/.98

SPIR 1.50/2.11

SATC 1.09/1.15

SNSS 1.40/1.50

 

There were 7 stopped out positions

 

The list for 2.00-3.99

 

AVNR 2.73/3.00

BTN 3.65/3.95

CMFO 2.12/2.31

CCRT 2.63/3.08

CRDC 2.42/2.37

CMFO 2.12/2.31

FLOW 2.63/2.83

DLGC 3.10/3.11

FCH 2.75/2.75

FVE 3.35/3.19

FBN 2.63/2.70

JRJC 2.80/2.85

KIPS 2.30/3.08

QTWW 3.05/3.23

RDNT 2.63/2.71

ZA 2.77/2.87

 

There were 3 stopped out positions.

 

The recent volatility has me wondering about original stops and whether they should be

increased. Also, should they be different within the sub groups.

 

From July's candidates there were some staggering upside moves quickly

ABAT, IRE, KNDI, NFEC, SCEI, VALV, GBE, GRO, CCRT, NEWN, USBI

 

Capturing these high flyers with trailing stop profit orders ensured a tidy profit overall.

It seems reasonable that off of ytd lows there will be more of the same notwithstanding

a meltdown.I've noticed that the larger the retracement the better the results,so that is

another filter to maybe recalibrate.

 

This work in progress has some features I'm sure are flawed and I would like others

with a greater understanding to comment on the pros if there are any and the cons which which I'm sure there are many :-)

 

New positions made today;

 

DYAX 1.42

EDAP 2.30

LLEN 3.45

PM .26

SPMD 2.24

TSPT 2.84I

 

I must say I enjoy getting long near the bottom with a HINT of a possible reversal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GU got stopped out :(

 

New positions entered

 

AMCF 1.40

BBND 1.43

CHRS 3.06

GMR .40

JASO 3.79

ZN 2.92

 

yesterday's PM should read PMI

Edited by cash123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When I first saw you post about penny stocks I though that its usual gambling in which beginners are tempted.

 

But I must admit the model is impressive. I never really traded in penny stocks and its good to read your posts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

August's closing numbers;

 

0-.99

ANO .63 / .68......+7.9%

ASTI .72 / .94......+30%

CHLN .99 / 1.01 ...+2.0%

CYCC .81 / .84 ....+3.7%

DSTI .30 / .29 ....-3.3%

GMR .40 / .40......0%

PMI .26 / .26......0%

NBY .86 / .91......+5.8%

NTWK .89 / .90......+1.1%

GRO .77 / 1.21.....+57.1%

 

6 positions stopped out

 

1.00-1.99

AMCF 1.40 / 1.55....+10.7%

BBND 1.43 / 1.43........0%

BIOD 1.15 / 1.24......+7.8%

BZR 1.63 / 2.11......+29.4%

CHINA 1.30 / 1.32.....+1.5%

COMV 1.72 / 2.43.....+41.2%

CSUN 1.23 / 1.22..... -.08%

CLWR 1.72 / 3.21.....+86.6%

CPST 1.20 / 1.20........0%

FCEL 1.16 / 1.18.....+1.7%

FREE 1.21 / 1.23......+1.6%

DYAX 1.42 / 1.49......+4.9%

DRL 1.50 / 1.63.....+8.6%

EGLE 1.87 / 1.94......+3.7%

HW 1.91 / 2.15......+12.5%

HILL 1.69 / 1.76......+4.1%

MOVE 1.52 / 1.81.....+19.0%

NLST 1.42 / 1.80.....+26.7%

SYNM 1.12 / 1.20......+7.1%

SMSI 1.87 / 1.89......+1.0%

SOMX 1.00 / 1.00........ 0%

SPIR 1.50 / 2.30......+53.3%

SATC 1.09 / 1.33......+22.0%

SNSS 1.40 / 1.55.....+10.7%

 

there were 8 stopped out

 

2.00-3.99

 

AVNR 2.73 / 2.85......+6.9%

BTN 3.65 / 3.86......+5.7%

CMFO 2.12 / 2.20.......+3.7%

CCRT 2.63 / 3.20.......+21.6%

CHRS 3.04 / 3.17........+4.2%

CRDC 2.42 / 2.28........-5.7%

FLOW 2.63 / 2.55........-3.0%

DLGC 3.10 / 2.79.........-10% stopped out

EDAP 2.30 / 2.21.........-3.9%

FCH 2.75 / 3.43........+24.7%

FVE 3.35 / 3.25.........-2.9%

FBN 2.63 / 2.81.........+6.8%

JASO 3.79 / 3.67.........-3.1%

JRJC 2.80 / 2.78.........-.07%

KIPS 2.30 / 3.20.........+39.1%

LLEN 3.45 / 3.50.........+1.4%

QTWW 3.05 / 3.31.........+8.5%

SPMD 2.24 / 2.12.........-5.3%

TSPT 2.84 / 3.24..........+14%

RDNT 2.63 / 3.00..........+14.0%

ZA 2.77 / 3.01..........+8.6%

ZN 2.92 / 2.82..........-3.4%

 

there were 4 stopped out positions including DLGC

 

The sub group 0-.99 was by far the worst performers with 6 of 16 being stopped out.

They will be eliminated henceforth.

 

the middle group 1.00 - 1.99 had 8 out of 32 stopped out...that's doable

The last group was the most promising 2.00-3.99 had only 4 of 25 stopped out.

 

Since the stopped out positions represent a loss of .15% of the account

a few high flyers managed with trailing stops should suffice.Once the +25%

threshold has been met the trailing stops are placed 10% under that days close.

 

Positions entered today start Septembers list

 

ANX 1.08

CNTF 2.68

EEE 1.13

EXM 2.02

ECTY 2.20

MCOX 1.95

NFEC 1.12

NEWN 2.26

SCEI 1.53

VALV 2.13

Edited by cash123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Time to short AAPL? anyone else tracking this stock?

 

I've been trading AAPL for some time ... I'm not in it right now simply because of the entire equity environment ... but after the next shakeout - I will be back LONG. While I am waiting, however, I've sold some naked puts against the stock at 10% below current prices. That is a strategy of mine for any stock I am long term bullish on but waiting for prices to come down.

 

Why would you short? Because of macro issues or because you think AAPL has had its run?

 

thx

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually I meant in the short term.

 

AAPL was outperforming market since last month or so... and Technology sector as a whole on up days. This relationship has changed; the markets apparently bounced this week from important 'trough', but this stock does not shows bull enthusiasm. I do not particularly like a stock opening significantly up but closing in red :)

attachment.php?attachmentid=26269&stc=1&d=1317314776

 

 

On daily charts, it closely resembles a classic exhaustion, ending with wide range bar.

attachment.php?attachmentid=26268&stc=1&d=1317314445

 

I also do not like the media attention the stock has been getting lately, everyone wants to own it.

aapl1.png.e242df8073581868c09c81f7e0678842.png

aapl.thumb.png.9bbc6c90ca450b552fb640c190fbd4ce.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sold Nov 350 put ... I don't think AAPL will get there ... but you never know. Nonetheless, I will be happy to buy AAPL at 350

 

MMS

 

I like that idea.

That's how Buffet accumulate most of his holdings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
AAPL bounced back from 360s hysterically upto 420...

 

AAPL's rally on daily charts is over. Until there is significant rally (100+ points) in SnP itself, it will not see new highs.

 

is that a prediction? or verbal diarrhea?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • ELV Elevance Health stock, watch for an upside gap breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?ELV
    • ORLY OReilly Automotive stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?ORLY
    • Date: 28th March 2025.   Market Selloff Deepens as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Investors     Global stock markets extended their losing streak for a third day as concerns over looming US tariffs and an escalating trade war dampened investor sentiment. The flight to safety saw gold prices surge to a record high, underscoring growing risk aversion. Stock Selloff Intensifies The MSCI World Index recorded its longest losing streak in a month, while Asian equities saw their sharpest decline since late February. US and European stock futures also signalled potential weakness, while cryptocurrency markets retreated and bond yields edged lower. Investors are scaling back their exposure ahead of President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2. His latest move to impose a 25% levy on all foreign-made automobiles has sparked fresh concerns over inflation and economic growth, prompting traders to reassess their strategies. Investor Strategies Shift Market experts are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of heightened volatility. ‘It’s impossible to predict Trump’s next move,’ said Xin-Yao Ng of Aberdeen Investments. ‘Our focus is on companies that are less vulnerable to tariff policies while taking advantage of market dips to find value opportunities.’ Yield Curve Signals Economic Concerns In the bond market, the spread between 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yields widened to its highest level since early 2022. Investors are bracing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts if economic growth slows further. Long-term Treasury yields hit a one-month peak as inflation risks tied to tariffs spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that while tariffs may contribute to short-term price increases, their long-term effects remain uncertain. Gold Hits Record High as Safe-Haven Demand Rises Amid market turbulence, gold prices soared 0.7% on Friday, reaching an all-time high of $3,077.60 per ounce. Major banks have raised their price targets for the precious metal, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting gold to hit $3,300 per ounce by year-end. Looking Ahead As investors digest economic data showing US growth acceleration in Q4, attention will turn to Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. This data will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed policy moves. With markets on edge and trade tensions escalating, investors will closely monitor upcoming developments, particularly Trump’s tariff announcement next week, which could further dictate market direction.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Crypto hype is everywhere since it also making new riches as well, i however trade crypto little as compared to other forex trading pairs.
    • The ewallets can be instant withdrawals like skrill etc or they can also pay through crypto but not tested their crypto withdrawals so far.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.