Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

VTK

Sam Seiden-Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price

Recommended Posts

Hello, I have been reading a lot about Seiden setups, and watched a lot of the free video's.

I'm currently testing the ideas on the currencies market, and have some questions to the users who use his approach to the market:

 

Offcourse I understand it is impossible to provide exact answers to this, but I'm interested if someone can give some guidelines)

 

- Suppose one would be trading the smaller timeframes, say 2-5 min charts. How many good setups can one expect to trade in let's say 10 days of trading ( 6 hours a day)

( next again, I understand this also depends on what grade one gives a trade, but let's say we choose to take all trades which grade 7 or higher)

 

- I have to agree with Josh that Seidens presumption is based that market conditions at the time of creating a zone and revisting have not been changed, and this is hard to believe. This question is also stated in some articles and video's and a thorough answer was not given. Next again, we could establish a rule such as the revisit has to be within timeperiod x to possibly work. Does anyone has experience with this?

 

Kind regards

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...revisit has to be within timeperiod x to possibly work. Does anyone has experience with this?

Kind regards

 

On monthly/weekly,i have seen levels 10+ years old working like a charm.When it comes to S/D levels it's not how old they are it is rather where they are on the big picture.Like in real estate,location is very important.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On monthly/weekly,i have seen levels 10+ years old working like a charm.When it comes to S/D levels it's not how old they are it is rather where they are on the big picture.Like in real estate,location is very important.

 

Again, I would love to see you pick these in advance. And I look at charts of various markets I do not trade and think the same thing all the time: "I can see why that level held" .. and so on. But I think it would be even more helpful to quantify a level in advance, call it, and then see what happens. It's not very helpful really to say "see how it stopped right there, that was expected" ... any trader can see a good trade after it has happened, the challenge and where all can learn more is doing it before or as it happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks VTK, looks good -- also if you can provide any criteria on why you think these look like good levels, as opposed to other nearby levels, etc.

 

IMHO,there are 3 big things when looking for quality levels.

 

Big Picture:where is the price in relation to big picture sup/dem?

This answer the question of getting long,short or staying flat.

 

Strenght of initial move;How did price leave the level?

This one gives a clue about imbalance of sup/dem at the level.

 

Profit margin;is there a profit margin?

And this one is not just about profits it's also about odds.Bigger the profit margin,bigger the odds that trade will work(if other criteria are met)

I like to see big candles when price leaves the level.This gives a chance for a price to come back in a same manner.More stretched price is when it comes to the level,stronger the reaction will be.It's like rubber band.

 

Other odd enhancers;$DXY,level on top of the level,approach to the level,retracement,time at the level.

 

Josh,i hope this answers your thoughts.

 

Now i would like to address this "time past/level will work or won't" thing whit two charts that i managed to dig up.

 

th_Screenshot-NetDaniaFinanceChart.png"]th_Screenshot-NetDaniaFinanceChart.png[/url]

 

th_MonthlySP500Index.png"]th_MonthlySP500Index.png[/url]

 

Notice where price was at sup/dem curve when it kicked those levels.That's key thing,it's not when those levels were created.Also notice how streached it was.Now i am not saying that those are same orders from years ago and frankly i don't care who is willing to place a trade at or near those "old" levels as long as they work.

 

Here is another pick for SPX500

 

th_WeeklySP500Index.png"]th_WeeklySP500Index.png[/url]

 

P.S.

I ma new to photobucket so i hope that those linx are working fine for you:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And levels on top of levels :)

 

@ VTK, I wonder, which timeframes do you use most, and how many entries you get - say per month - for a givin market.

How many markets do you track using this approach?

 

Kind regards

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@VTK: I wonder, which timeframes work best for you? How many entries do the charts -say in 1 month- give? How many markets do you track?

 

Hola PoolDuck!:)

 

I trade just spot fx,swing trading.I don't go lower than 60M or higher than daily for placing trades.I am not in love with any particular time frame just trading of one which gives best deal.Like going in different shops but checking out same merchandise.

I am very picky about levels and i am always looking for quality rather than quantity so i don't have more than couple of trades per month.Let's say up to five,rarely more.

Trading all majors+some crosses.Keeping eye on $DXY,SPX500,gold.

There are also two fantastic markets which i would trade if i wanted to do daytrading,FGBL and FESX of EUREX.From mine observation they move more steadily than FX.

Hope that helps PoolDuck!:2c:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I ma new to photobucket so i hope that those linx are working fine for you:)

 

Thanks VTK -- I would switch from photobucket if I were you :) Try screencast, or chartupload.com, or better yet upload them to TL's servers so there's not a bunch of spam when you click them...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday i was quite general on what i am looking for when searching for trades.

Although i have answered "..why you think these look like good levels, as opposed to other nearby levels.." with general explanation i would like to be specific about those two levels as Josh has put the question that way.

 

EURGBP-It's at weekly area of demand,level it self is very clean and neat,it's origin of big move in price which did not meet any serious supply for quite some time,there is nice profit margin,price didn't spend lot of time at the level,it's fresh level where price hasn't been already,also it's not just a reaction of price to some prior level....

 

What i don't like;EG is very high on sup/dem curve,other words EUR is expensive so sellers should have easier time than buyers.This leads me to conclusion that i should take potential profit quicker than i would do if price was much lower on S/D curve,making EUR cheaper.It's same as with any other buying or selling,high prices make people sell,low prices make people buy.

 

 

USDCAD-It's close to big picture demand,UC is very low on S/D curve,strong move out of the level,potential for huge profit margin(target which i have marked is there just to make example)

 

Does all this guarantee that those will work?Of cores not.There aren't any guarantees in trading.Except that we can lose $$$ quickly and easily:D

 

By the way Josh,how to upload jpg on TL servers?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

VTK, as I understand correctly, these are the variables whereupon you asses the probability of the trade:

 

• Big picture

-Location SD curve

-Trend?

 

• Level itself

-Velocity

-Time at level

-Level on top

 

• Arrival

-Retracement

-Clean

-Prof. Margin

-Time of day?

 

• Additional

-DX

-Tick?

 

 

I am wondering, how do you asses the probabilities precisely? Do you assign values to each catagorie including subvariables( e.g. in excel) ? Or do you just look at the potential trades with these variables in your head and make a sound decision( With this I mean based upon experience/intuition) ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Trend?

 

Trends are nothing more than price moving between two key areas of supply and demand.I don't look at MA,highs/lows....to determine what's the trend.By quantifying sup/dem one can anticipate what could be next move(trend) of price.

 

Time of day?

 

I would say that with spot FX that's not important.But if one is trading,for example,on Globex then i think it would be a good idea to go for levels which are made during US session.Only exception might be currency futures but don't hold mine word for it as i don't have much experience with those.

 

 

Tick?

 

If you mean tick chart i am not using it.But as candles are made per X amount of trades placed i don't see the point of using it in spot FX as it is decentralized market.

 

....just look at the potential trades with these variables in your head and make decision.... based upon experience/intuition ?

 

After some time potential trades start to poke you in the eyes.That comes with experience and discipline.Although Sam made for class odd enhancers scoring spreadsheet i am not using it anymore.

Hope this helps PoolDuck!:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Trends are nothing more than price moving between two key areas of supply and demand.I don't look at MA,highs/lows....to determine what's the trend.By quantifying sup/dem one can anticipate what could be next move(trend) of price.

 

 

Thanks for your answers VTK! :)

 

Well about the trend, this is something that confused me too. Because in essence, price should travel( in a trend on your trading timeframe) between higher timeframe SD levels ( until offcourse these are broken. But in an article he does write about trading in the trend.

See here:

Online Trading Academy Lessons from the Pros 02/08/2008: Indicators And Oscillators Are Wonderful If You Use Them Properly - Sam Seiden

( 6th sentence under the chart: " Once we know this, we only want to buy pullbacks in price.")

[Or does he mean trend direction on higher timeframe? Eg if the higher timeframe is in an uptrend, only buy at higher timeframe demand levels.]

 

 

For the spreadsheet, could you give me the weightings of the variables, via here or via a personal message? ( BTW, I completely understand if you choose not to share this)

 

Kind regards

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're welcome PoolDuck:)

 

Note that in this article he explains trend following strategy.No mention of S/D.

But as far as i know his charts are naked,just S/D and that's it.Also what i told about trend is how i have been trained to see it based on XLT class.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A friend of mine searched the web for info on the odds enhancers and created two description files and a spreadsheet for trade evaluation based on info sitting out on other boards. He published it in OpenOffice format. I've converted it to bill's format for those who are open challenged.

 

Learning to methodically test each potential trade's quality is one of the keys to this method imho.

 

Enjoy :2c:

 

 

.

Probability Enhancers.zip

Probability Enhancers (Microsoft ver).zip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good stuff Spidey:)

It's almost same stuff as odd enhancers that we got in XLT.Theory is on spot,difference is just in how spreadsheet look like.It wouldn't feel right for me to post original one which i got from OTA because of other XLT colleagues.Those that you have attached are fine to use.

But with time you can throw this out of window.Low risk-high reward trades start to poke you in the eyes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:rofl: .....i am stuck with this darn EURGBP trade...freakin thing just don't wanna hit mine stop or target,whichever-i don't care.. :D

If something doesn't happen with it until xmass,will kill it personally:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
:rofl: .....i am stuck with this darn EURGBP trade...freakin thing just don't wanna hit mine stop or target,whichever-i don't care.. :D

If something doesn't happen with it until xmass,will kill it personally:D

 

I’m loving my EURGBP this morning too… ;)

… I've had a short covering order resting at .85104 since 11/28

... Low this morning on the 'spike down' was .85109 … :roll eyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You gotta love tha pipettes!:D

 

Well i am just saying to my self that such trades are testing mine discipline as i am in for almost a month.And it ain't going anywhere..Saw it went down in afternoon,maybe i am lucky and it has hit mine stop,gotta check out:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello. On the attached image there is the daily chart of futures contract on Gazprom, one of the most liquid, or even the most liquid one on the Russian market. I've marked with the lines the supply\demad zone.And marked with the pointer a price movement that is strange for me. In the marked place the price could reach the level if it've gone a hundred points higher into selected S\D zone. But it didn't and then droped down. So there are some questions:

1.Did the S\D zone was selected correctly?

2.Why did the price droped down so hard, but didn't touch the level?

3.If the S\D zone was marked correctly, will it continue to move down?

4.If the price goes up for several weeks and suddenly starts to go down as huge as in the area with the pointer, but without touching the level, what makes you change the view of the market and makes you sell short instead of buy long in such situations??

Thank you for the answers!!!

Untitled-2.thumb.jpg.e756872138a26a39bc9421e7d2e81e70.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.