Sam Seiden-Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price

[PoolDuck 10]

Hello, I have been reading a lot about Seiden setups, and watched a lot of the free video's.

I'm currently testing the ideas on the currencies market, and have some questions to the users who use his approach to the market:

 

Offcourse I understand it is impossible to provide exact answers to this, but I'm interested if someone can give some guidelines)

 

- Suppose one would be trading the smaller timeframes, say 2-5 min charts. How many good setups can one expect to trade in let's say 10 days of trading ( 6 hours a day)

( next again, I understand this also depends on what grade one gives a trade, but let's say we choose to take all trades which grade 7 or higher)

 

- I have to agree with Josh that Seidens presumption is based that market conditions at the time of creating a zone and revisting have not been changed, and this is hard to believe. This question is also stated in some articles and video's and a thorough answer was not given. Next again, we could establish a rule such as the revisit has to be within timeperiod x to possibly work. Does anyone has experience with this?

 

Kind regards

[VTK 10]

...revisit has to be within timeperiod x to possibly work. Does anyone has experience with this?

Kind regards

 

On monthly/weekly,i have seen levels 10+ years old working like a charm.When it comes to S/D levels it's not how old they are it is rather where they are on the big picture.Like in real estate,location is very important.

[joshdance 10]

On monthly/weekly,i have seen levels 10+ years old working like a charm.When it comes to S/D levels it's not how old they are it is rather where they are on the big picture.Like in real estate,location is very important.

 

Again, I would love to see you pick these in advance. And I look at charts of various markets I do not trade and think the same thing all the time: "I can see why that level held" .. and so on. But I think it would be even more helpful to quantify a level in advance, call it, and then see what happens. It's not very helpful really to say "see how it stopped right there, that was expected" ... any trader can see a good trade after it has happened, the challenge and where all can learn more is doing it before or as it happens.

[VTK 10]

There you go Josh..

 

EURGBP

 

USDCAD

[joshdance 10]

There you go Josh..

 

EURGBP

 

USDCAD

 

Thanks VTK, looks good -- also if you can provide any criteria on why you think these look like good levels, as opposed to other nearby levels, etc.

[VTK 10]

Thanks VTK, looks good -- also if you can provide any criteria on why you think these look like good levels, as opposed to other nearby levels, etc.

 

IMHO,there are 3 big things when looking for quality levels.

 

Big Picture:where is the price in relation to big picture sup/dem?

This answer the question of getting long,short or staying flat.

 

Strenght of initial move;How did price leave the level?

This one gives a clue about imbalance of sup/dem at the level.

 

Profit margin;is there a profit margin?

And this one is not just about profits it's also about odds.Bigger the profit margin,bigger the odds that trade will work(if other criteria are met)

I like to see big candles when price leaves the level.This gives a chance for a price to come back in a same manner.More stretched price is when it comes to the level,stronger the reaction will be.It's like rubber band.

 

Other odd enhancers;$DXY,level on top of the level,approach to the level,retracement,time at the level.

 

Josh,i hope this answers your thoughts.

 

Now i would like to address this "time past/level will work or won't" thing whit two charts that i managed to dig up.

 

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Notice where price was at sup/dem curve when it kicked those levels.That's key thing,it's not when those levels were created.Also notice how streached it was.Now i am not saying that those are same orders from years ago and frankly i don't care who is willing to place a trade at or near those "old" levels as long as they work.

 

Here is another pick for SPX500

 

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P.S.

I ma new to photobucket so i hope that those linx are working fine for you:)

[PoolDuck 10]

And levels on top of levels

 

@ VTK, I wonder, which timeframes do you use most, and how many entries you get - say per month - for a givin market.

How many markets do you track using this approach?

 

Kind regards

[PoolDuck 10]

( sorry you already said )

 

@VTK: I wonder, which timeframes work best for you? How many entries do the charts -say in 1 month- give? How many markets do you track?

 

Kind regards

[VTK 10]

@VTK: I wonder, which timeframes work best for you? How many entries do the charts -say in 1 month- give? How many markets do you track?

 

Hola PoolDuck!

 

I trade just spot fx,swing trading.I don't go lower than 60M or higher than daily for placing trades.I am not in love with any particular time frame just trading of one which gives best deal.Like going in different shops but checking out same merchandise.

I am very picky about levels and i am always looking for quality rather than quantity so i don't have more than couple of trades per month.Let's say up to five,rarely more.

Trading all majors+some crosses.Keeping eye on $DXY,SPX500,gold.

There are also two fantastic markets which i would trade if i wanted to do daytrading,FGBL and FESX of EUREX.From mine observation they move more steadily than FX.

Hope that helps PoolDuck!

[joshdance 10]

I ma new to photobucket so i hope that those linx are working fine for you:)

 

Thanks VTK -- I would switch from photobucket if I were you Try screencast, or chartupload.com, or better yet upload them to TL's servers so there's not a bunch of spam when you click them...

[VTK 10]

Yesterday i was quite general on what i am looking for when searching for trades.

Although i have answered "..why you think these look like good levels, as opposed to other nearby levels.." with general explanation i would like to be specific about those two levels as Josh has put the question that way.

 

EURGBP-It's at weekly area of demand,level it self is very clean and neat,it's origin of big move in price which did not meet any serious supply for quite some time,there is nice profit margin,price didn't spend lot of time at the level,it's fresh level where price hasn't been already,also it's not just a reaction of price to some prior level....

 

What i don't like;EG is very high on sup/dem curve,other words EUR is expensive so sellers should have easier time than buyers.This leads me to conclusion that i should take potential profit quicker than i would do if price was much lower on S/D curve,making EUR cheaper.It's same as with any other buying or selling,high prices make people sell,low prices make people buy.

 

 

USDCAD-It's close to big picture demand,UC is very low on S/D curve,strong move out of the level,potential for huge profit margin(target which i have marked is there just to make example)

 

Does all this guarantee that those will work?Of cores not.There aren't any guarantees in trading.Except that we can lose $$$ quickly and easily:D

 

By the way Josh,how to upload jpg on TL servers?

[PoolDuck 10]

VTK, as I understand correctly, these are the variables whereupon you asses the probability of the trade:

 

• Big picture

-Location SD curve

-Trend?

 

• Level itself

-Velocity

-Time at level

-Level on top

 

• Arrival

-Retracement

-Clean

-Prof. Margin

-Time of day?

 

• Additional

-DX

-Tick?

 

 

I am wondering, how do you asses the probabilities precisely? Do you assign values to each catagorie including subvariables( e.g. in excel) ? Or do you just look at the potential trades with these variables in your head and make a sound decision( With this I mean based upon experience/intuition) ?

[joshdance 10]

By the way Josh,how to upload jpg on TL servers?

 

There is a section "Attach Files" and a "Manage Attachments" button.. you can upload from computer or URL.

[VTK 10]

Trend?

 

Trends are nothing more than price moving between two key areas of supply and demand.I don't look at MA,highs/lows....to determine what's the trend.By quantifying sup/dem one can anticipate what could be next move(trend) of price.

 

Time of day?

 

I would say that with spot FX that's not important.But if one is trading,for example,on Globex then i think it would be a good idea to go for levels which are made during US session.Only exception might be currency futures but don't hold mine word for it as i don't have much experience with those.

 

 

Tick?

 

If you mean tick chart i am not using it.But as candles are made per X amount of trades placed i don't see the point of using it in spot FX as it is decentralized market.

 

....just look at the potential trades with these variables in your head and make decision.... based upon experience/intuition ?

 

After some time potential trades start to poke you in the eyes.That comes with experience and discipline.Although Sam made for class odd enhancers scoring spreadsheet i am not using it anymore.

Hope this helps PoolDuck!

[PoolDuck 10]

Trends are nothing more than price moving between two key areas of supply and demand.I don't look at MA,highs/lows....to determine what's the trend.By quantifying sup/dem one can anticipate what could be next move(trend) of price.

 

 

Thanks for your answers VTK!

 

Well about the trend, this is something that confused me too. Because in essence, price should travel( in a trend on your trading timeframe) between higher timeframe SD levels ( until offcourse these are broken. But in an article he does write about trading in the trend.

See here:

Online Trading Academy Lessons from the Pros 02/08/2008: Indicators And Oscillators Are Wonderful If You Use Them Properly - Sam Seiden

( 6th sentence under the chart: " Once we know this, we only want to buy pullbacks in price.")

[Or does he mean trend direction on higher timeframe? Eg if the higher timeframe is in an uptrend, only buy at higher timeframe demand levels.]

 

 

For the spreadsheet, could you give me the weightings of the variables, via here or via a personal message? ( BTW, I completely understand if you choose not to share this)

 

Kind regards

[VTK 10]

You're welcome PoolDuck:)

 

Note that in this article he explains trend following strategy.No mention of S/D.

But as far as i know his charts are naked,just S/D and that's it.Also what i told about trend is how i have been trained to see it based on XLT class.

[VTK 10]

Update of EURGBP trade.

 

Cheers!

[SpideySense 10]

A friend of mine searched the web for info on the odds enhancers and created two description files and a spreadsheet for trade evaluation based on info sitting out on other boards. He published it in OpenOffice format. I've converted it to bill's format for those who are open challenged.

 

Learning to methodically test each potential trade's quality is one of the keys to this method imho.

 

Enjoy

 

 

.

Probability Enhancers.zip

Probability Enhancers (Microsoft ver).zip

[VTK 10]

Good stuff Spidey:)

It's almost same stuff as odd enhancers that we got in XLT.Theory is on spot,difference is just in how spreadsheet look like.It wouldn't feel right for me to post original one which i got from OTA because of other XLT colleagues.Those that you have attached are fine to use.

But with time you can throw this out of window.Low risk-high reward trades start to poke you in the eyes.

[PoolDuck 10]

Thanks for sharing:)

[VTK 10]

:rofl: .....i am stuck with this darn EURGBP trade...freakin thing just don't wanna hit mine stop or target,whichever-i don't care..

If something doesn't happen with it until xmass,will kill it personally:D

[zdo 20]

:rofl: .....i am stuck with this darn EURGBP trade...freakin thing just don't wanna hit mine stop or target,whichever-i don't care..

If something doesn't happen with it until xmass,will kill it personally:D

 

I’m loving my EURGBP this morning too…

… I've had a short covering order resting at .85104 since 11/28

... Low this morning on the 'spike down' was .85109 …

[VTK 10]

You gotta love tha pipettes!

 

Well i am just saying to my self that such trades are testing mine discipline as i am in for almost a month.And it ain't going anywhere..Saw it went down in afternoon,maybe i am lucky and it has hit mine stop,gotta check out:D

[Romant 10]

Hello. On the attached image there is the daily chart of futures contract on Gazprom, one of the most liquid, or even the most liquid one on the Russian market. I've marked with the lines the supply\demad zone.And marked with the pointer a price movement that is strange for me. In the marked place the price could reach the level if it've gone a hundred points higher into selected S\D zone. But it didn't and then droped down. So there are some questions:

1.Did the S\D zone was selected correctly?

2.Why did the price droped down so hard, but didn't touch the level?

3.If the S\D zone was marked correctly, will it continue to move down?

4.If the price goes up for several weeks and suddenly starts to go down as huge as in the area with the pointer, but without touching the level, what makes you change the view of the market and makes you sell short instead of buy long in such situations??

Thank you for the answers!!!

[goi 10]

Hi

How to see the video? I am unable to view it!