At Your 'mean'

[jpennybags 11]

Alright... I make trades at the extremes from the mean (as defined by the market price)... or, I trade breakouts of the extremes. What is throwing me, is the term "at your mean". Price defines the mean, and I'm responding to price action as it corresponds to the mean. The market defines the mean price level... I have no say in the matter. There are strategies in use of the Andrews pitchfork which involve buying or selling the extremes, and scaling in or out of positions at the mean. Even this is defined by the market price and trend though (I don't use this method... it's just my understanding of one method that involves the mean).

 

Not getting it... but, it wouldn't be the first time.

[jpennybags 11]

OK... I've been sidetracked by my own density. After reading back through the thread (carefully) I understand what you are describing as "your mean". I do have a "mean" that is expressed by price extremes. This would be more of a band or area above and below a trend line of a price pattern. Price movement into this range, would trigger the possibility of a trade, but not initiate one. What I'm looking for is the market to indicate a reversal. once I've seen that, my entry is on the pullback from that reversal move. Sorry dude.

[zdo 20]

jpennybags, et al,

 

re: “What is throwing me, is the term "at your mean"”.

 

I emphasized ‘at your mean’ to keep the question an open question. Had I limited it to a certain moving average or another ‘mean’, I suspected that those who didn’t use that particular ‘mean’ would be less inclined to contribute… so far turns out it didn’t matter much

 

and re “Price defines the mean, and I'm responding to price action as it corresponds to the mean.”

Yes price does create ‘mean’ but it doesn’t define ‘the mean’. At each price there is a whole spectrum of available ‘means’, not just one ‘the mean’ .

Most ‘means’ are ultimately 'mean'ingless :doh: – those considered AND those not included in considerations…

 

re “There are strategies in use of the Andrews pitchfork which involve buying or selling the extremes, and scaling in or out of positions at the mean…” Great observation ! Also makes it a perfect one off example of why I didn’t specify a particular ‘mean’ – few would consider / remember / whatever that the Andrews Median Line is yet another way of ‘mean’ projection.

…and basically, the OP question is the same as Andrews conundrum – what to do at ‘your mean’?

 

Andrews observed certain price behavior as price approached the line - and especially that price tended to change trend at or near the line.

Andrews determined there was a high probability price returned to this line after the third pivot

…

Those familiar with Andrews’ work know that he determined prices tended to change trend when they reach the Median Line. Many expect prices to reverse at this line every time without fail, and quickly dismiss the method when they find out it does not. Andrews determined the line could indeed be used to signal a change in trend, BUT according to his course, “under specified conditions”. So, apparently there is more to it than that.

Is the method worth further study?

 

Andrews' Pitchfork - an Explanation

 

Attached is EURUSD 144 minute sort of real time example

[jpennybags 11]

At each price there is a whole spectrum of available ‘means’, not just one ‘the mean’ .

 

 

I realize this not where you intended to take this thread, but as we are already here:

 

I would agree with this statement if you had said "in each price pattern" instead of "at each price"... please explain.

[zdo 20]

At each price there is a whole spectrum of available ‘means’, not just one ‘the mean’ .

 

 

I realize this not where you intended to take this thread, but as we are already here:

 

I would agree with this statement if you had said "in each price pattern" instead of "at each price"... please explain.

 

How about “At each moment in time, there is a whole spectrum…” ?

That and “in each price pattern” and “at each price” all seem functionally interchangeable to me at this point…

but please note I’m probably getting downright slappy at this point… am on a trading marathon. The trading is fun and easy at this time - but I’m really starting to feel the net 17 hour + days spread all over any 24 hour period…

and I may be at it all week... more turns in last 4 trading days than previous (vacation shortened) month combined... yammering post count per day also way up., too..

hmm :missy:

[jpennybags 11]

Alright... the "each moment in time" suffices. In the end, talking about / concerning yourself with "mean" price is somewhat superfluous... to that I would agree.

[zdo 20]

... In the end, talking about / concerning yourself with "mean" price is somewhat superfluous... to that I would agree.

Does that mean making trading entries at (your) "mean" price is also somewhat superfluous?

 

Boys, Oh Boys, Oh Boys! It's makes you wonder! :rofl:

[jpennybags 11]

I can draw a trend line anywhere... is it right, will it be right... don't know, don't care. I'm looking for the market to show me something that I'm looking for at that point in time. For me, and the way I trade..."my mean" is superfluous. If I were to spend a great deal of time considering it, what good would it do me in any practical sense... I'm looking for something that is "kinda right" based on price patterns.

 

Consider someone who is a strictly a system trader who takes every signal... especially automated systems. Their "mean" should probably carry more weight (for them) than "my mean" does for me.

 

By the way... what do you do at your mean? You haven't said.

[zdo 20]

By the way... what do you do at your mean? You haven't said.

 

Yes I have. From Post 19 “Generally (and somewhat in terms of trends), I am repeatedly assessing the probabilities of whether the current move back to my ‘mean’ is a correction and the mean ‘value’ will hold and the current trend resume or price will cross mean and a new ‘trend’ form with my ‘mean’ / ‘value’ now moving in the other direction from the direction it was moving at the most recent extreme before the reversion.”

I have a ‘mean’ that (is only used / “carries any weight” in certain MarketTypes and in those Types) gets visited / tapped by the high or low extreme of a bar quite frequently. Was just asking what others do (if anything) at their ‘mean’. Two ideas so far…

 

 

For me, and the way I trade..."my mean" is superfluous.

 

from the OP (Post #1)

“… if you don’t use a ‘mean’ or make trading decisions or executions at your ‘mean’ as described above, then please ignore question..."

ie the question was for those who do routinely make trades at their ‘means’

 

Besides the fact that all but a few of us are "looking for something that is "kinda right" based on price patterns", why am I even talking with you?