Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

zdo

At Your 'mean'

Recommended Posts

Question setup:

For commonality, “the mean” in the question below is your own ‘mean’ – a place where price has ‘reverted back to’. That means it’s not specifically or necessarily a central tendency (like an average) or a measure of valuation (like a value area) or whatever … it’s simply whatever your ‘mean’ is.

There are piles and piles of threads in trading forums on reversion to the mean methods, techniques, strategies, and tactics. Even though traders don’t typically use the term, there are also piles and piles of threads on ‘excursion from the mean’ methods, techniques, strategies, and tactics.

For the most part these are described as new trend if price has just properly crossed through your ‘mean’ or resumption of trend after correction if the ‘mean’ held, etc. etc. but in essence they are about excursion from 'mean’

It may literally fall into the stupid question bin and if you don’t use a ‘mean’ or make trading decisions or executions at your ‘mean’ as described above, then please ignore question. And thanks...

 

Now finally the question - Do you have something that is distinct / atypical that you do when price comes back to your mean?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

there are many interpretations of mean....

 

arithmetic mean

 

geometric mean

 

psychological mean

 

philosophical mean

 

dynamic mean

 

and so on ... ... ... ...

 

 

 

the best qualified mean in the market is the daily closing price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i have also wondered this over the years and have generally ignored it because the mean is usually a moving number as well - so the mean can actually move to where you bought or sold it rather than the price reverting back to the mean. Plus its another personal measure.

 

I dont trade this way, but the closest I have seen someone incorporate this successfully is in two ways - bollinger bands using it as a level to reduce positions or exit them at extreme (by their measure) excursions from the previous price levels, and I have seen some others that use it as an entry zone for trend following and trying to time reversals in a trend back to a MA (similar to Option timers project here on TL) http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/10158-optiontimers-project-25.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
there are many interpretations of mean....

 

arithmetic mean

 

geometric mean

 

psychological mean

 

philosophical mean

 

dynamic mean

 

and so on ... ... ... ...

 

 

 

the best qualified mean in the market is the daily closing price.

 

Thanks ... surprised you forgot to mention the golden mean...

Also, some might argue with you that the best qualified mean is the opening price ... instead of the closing price...

 

anyways re the "many interpretaions" and

 

One more time - just for you Tams :haha:

 

"For commonality, “the mean” in the question below is your own ‘mean’ – a place where price has ‘reverted back to’. That means it’s not specifically or necessarily a central tendency (like an average) or a measure of valuation (like a value area) or whatever … it’s simply whatever your ‘mean’ is."

 

Thanks for any help with the question you got for us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Do you have something that is distinct / atypical that you do when price comes back to your mean?

 

I don't know if what I do is distinct or atypical. I have no way of determining what is typical. I guess the typical person looses money, so if someday I make money, I suppose I'll be atypical. :rofl:

 

This question makes me think of situations where the market decides it was going in the wrong direction, and suddenly has a different bias. Maybe due to unexpected news.

 

If price changes direction and very quickly returns to "The Mean", I guess I expect it to continue to previous levels very quickly. It would be like if you suddenly realized that you got the value wrong, and something really was worth that price. Oops! Better get back to the previous price as fast as possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you have something that is distinct / atypical that you do when price comes back to your mean?

 

re-validate my mean

 

PS: don't know though if its distinct/atypical. with zillions of perceptions and opinions thrown around forums I feel everything I do is distinct :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My two cents...

 

The is no particular evidence that prices revert to the mean... look at Apple.

 

However from a statistical standpoint there *is* evidence that *volatility*

reverts to the mean. Volatility can really only be taken advantage of in the

world of options. When volatility reverts to the mean then options are becoming

more overvalued or undervalued depending on whether implied volatility is above

or below that mean. Then option traders switch from selling premium to buying

premium or vice versa.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My two cents...

 

The is no particular evidence that prices revert to the mean... look at Apple.

 

....

 

that's because you are looking for a slow fractal mean in a fast fractal market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

This question makes me think of situations where the market decides it was going in the wrong direction, and suddenly has a different bias. Maybe due to unexpected news.

 

If price changes direction and very quickly returns to "The Mean", I guess I expect it to continue to previous levels very quickly. It would be like if you suddenly realized that you got the value wrong, and something really was worth that price. Oops! Better get back to the previous price as fast as possible.

 

Tradewinds,

 

Real time example to see if I get what you're saying - the EJ has quickly returned to a cluster of 'means' (see rectangle of attached 180 minute EURJPY) Are you saying you'd play it to go back to 114 ? Thanks

 

zdo

means.jpg.1c410a7c6d64309aab15071b5dd1d347.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
that's because you are looking for a slow fractal mean in a fast fractal market.

 

It's true I'm talking about longer time frames, but even on short time frames prices tend to oscillate around a mean. When prices don't move through the mean but bounce off in a rejection pattern, that is usually a pretty good signal to trade in the direction of the bounce.

 

The traders "out there" watch various moving averages very carefully and so when prices get near them you might want to be deciding if any crowd-induced price action is occurring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tradewinds,

 

Real time example to see if I get what you're saying - the EJ has quickly returned to a cluster of 'means' (see rectangle of attached 180 minute EURJPY) Are you saying you'd play it to go back to 114 ? Thanks

 

zdo

 

I would expect it to test a support/resistance level first, say 112.25 (see prices on 7/20 and 7/24). After the August drop it did that (to the 110.50 area) and after the 8/4 jump it's testing the S/R level from 7/28. 114 just seems too optimistic to me, particularly since it spent little time there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tams,

If you have time, could you please define / amplify how you are using the terms

"slow fractal mean" and

"fast fractal market"

??

Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My two cents...

 

The is no particular evidence that prices revert to the mean... look at Apple.

....

 

that's because you are looking for a slow fractal mean in a fast fractal market.

 

Tams,

If you have time, could you please define / amplify how you are using the terms

"slow fractal mean" and

"fast fractal market"

??

Thanks

 

this might help

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=25590&stc=1&d=1312482392

fractal.jpg.a53d942b711ca7835f4c0ba5807f6001.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would expect it to test a support/resistance level first, say 112.25 (see prices on 7/20 and 7/24). After the August drop it did that (to the 110.50 area) and after the 8/4 jump it's testing the S/R level from 7/28. 114 just seems too optimistic to me, particularly since it spent little time there.

 

TradeWinds, After your general idea, I wasn't expecting such a detailed answer . Anyways - thank you very much ;)

TradeWinds :confused:

Edited by zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No, I'm not Tradewinds, just some guy who butted in ;)

 

calsprdr, just messin' with you...

 

My illustration was a question to see if I had the right idea of what TradeWinds was saying. I could care less about how that particular situation works out.

 

Seriously, re

114 just seems too optimistic to me, particularly since it spent little time there
how long it spent there, etc. was part of my question about the whole concept to him..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
this might help

 

nonvrbl comunikshn

 

see attached

 

 

Trying to keep up, Tams …

Does these pictures have anything to do with the OP question? Thanks.

WithFastMeanMoved.jpg.81aefd371eb2c520c3abf0c703f1e12f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The question is the answer…

Generally (and somewhat in terms of trends), I am repeatedly assessing the probabilities of whether the current move back to my ‘mean’ is a correction and the mean ‘value’ will hold and the current trend resume or price will cross mean and a new ‘trend’ form with my ‘mean’ / ‘value’ now moving in the other direction from the direction it was moving at the most recent extreme before the reversion.

 

One of my almost daily practices is to ask myself “what can I do tomorrow to make myself an even better trader?” and/or “what can I do today to trade even better?”

In that spirit, this question unfolded about certain systems as it occurred to me that in the evolution of my skills and platform representations, I’ve become more ‘unconsciously competent’ and precise at assessing, measuring, and trading ‘reversion to’ than I have at ‘excursion from’ ‘means’. Proficiency with the ‘excursion from’ ‘mean’ trading is less elegant and results are also less consistent– intermittently / sometimes almost automatic, other times out of phase… in certain systems.

 

…will try to refine the question. To start, we can remove the “distinctive” part from the question… was trying to avoid a rehash of methods “everybody” already knows about… and the question is still not about valuation or quantifying a valuation or where or how to place a ‘mean’. Thanks all.

The question is the answer…

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of my almost daily practices is to ask myself “what can I do tomorrow to make myself an even better trader?” and/or “what can I do today to trade even better?”

In that spirit, this question unfolded about certain systems as it occurred to me that in the evolution of my skills and platform representations, I’ve become more ‘unconsciously competent’ and precise at assessing, measuring, and trading ‘reversion to’ than I have at ‘excursion from’ ‘means’. Proficiency with the ‘excursion from’ ‘mean’ trading is less elegant and results are also less consistent– intermittently / sometimes almost automatic, other times out of phase… in certain systems.

 

…will try to refine the question. To start, we can remove the “distinctive” part from the question… was trying to avoid a rehash of methods “everybody” already knows about… and the question is still not about valuation or quantifying a valuation or where or how to place a ‘mean’. Thanks all.

The question is the answer…

 

There is two parts (or three really if you think that Tams and Zdo are mean reverting to some sort of super average being (does super average exist ??))

 

Part one - the method of trading - mean reversion or mean excursion

Part two - your definition of mean

 

both a personal, both adoptable......

 

When you boil it down, two traders can use the same mean, with different methods, and both get good results - it then becomes a matter of cutting losses for both when wrong, running profits, or taking profits will differ between the two, and the end stats will be highly likely to be different in terms of risk:reward, and winners v loosers stats....assuming this is measured over a wide enough time frame and various markets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tradewinds,

 

Real time example to see if I get what you're saying - the EJ has quickly returned to a cluster of 'means' (see rectangle of attached 180 minute EURJPY) Are you saying you'd play it to go back to 114 ? Thanks

 

zdo

 

Whenever price suddenly surges, like in your attached chart, I tend to have a bias towards believing there was some underlying reason that will continue to be valid in the very short term. So, I would seriously consider that the EJ would go back to 114, BUT it depends. I guess the scenarios would be:

 

  • Huge price move up - No major news at the price move, price reverts to mean
  • Huge price move up at the point of major news, price reverts to mean
  • Huge price move up on good major news, and more major news came out shortly afterwards that was bad, and price reverted to the mean.

 

If the price spiked up hard with no major news, I tend to have a bias towards believing that the underlying reason for the big price move will remain valid for the very immediate short term. In this case, I would have a bias towards believing there was a high probability that price would return to 114.

 

If the news came out immediately before the huge spike up, AND there is no other major news coming out, or not coming out for a few hours, I would also have a bias towards the price returning to 114.

 

If the huge spike up was good news, and the huge spike down was bad news, I would not assume that any levels were going to be revisited. In this last case, my assumption is that the reversion to the mean was an, "Oops! We got it wrong! Better get back to the mean as fast as possible."

 

In the first two cases, the reversion to the mean is not an "Oops! We got it wrong." I think of it as simply the market clearing out transactions and reverting to the mean before the next move up.

 

I use NYSE Internals to help me understand what the ES is doing. So I'd also be looking at the Advancers/Decliners and Up Volume/Down Volume for subtle clues as to what kind of "pressure" was being exerted on the price.

 

I know nothing about Forex, and have no desire to trade it unless there was something other than price that correlated to price movements.

 

Of course, it could get more complicated. You could look at what was happening on the longer term. Multi-day levels. Weekly level.

 

There's also the issue of volatility. If there is bigger than normal price moves, the trends aren't any different, it's just that the scale is different.

Edited by Tradewinds

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey guys… interesting discussion. What I have to add is more a question than a statement; please keep that in mind. My understanding of mean reversion and how it would be represented in market price on a chart would be more of a stair step pattern rather than a moving average pattern, and would represent a market consensus on price through each cycle of buying and selling (high to low - low to high… whatever the time frame).

 

In a downtrend, selling momentum would carry the price below the mean - a measurement further below the mean than the high measurement was above it. In the next down leg, the mean would have been dragged lower due to the momentum from the previous move down.

 

A market reversal and beginning of an uptrend would begin as buyers then moved the price measurement further above the mean than the measurement from last low. Subsequently, as buying momentum continues to move the price a greater measurement from the mean than the last swing low measurement the price continues higher until it can no longer move the price greater than the measurement from the last swing low… then the cycle begins again.

 

My understanding… as price moves through cycles of high to low (low to high) the market consensus of the "mean" moves with the trend in a stair step fashion, with price falling through the mean, or rising above it. Someone square me away if the notion is ill conceived.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...more a question than a statement; please keep that in mind. My understanding of mean reversion and how it would be represented in market price on a chart would be more of a stair step pattern rather than a moving average pattern, and would represent a market consensus on price through each cycle of buying and selling (high to low - low to high… whatever the time frame).

 

...

 

My understanding… as price moves through cycles of high to low (low to high) the market consensus of the "mean" moves with the trend in a stair step fashion, with price falling through the mean, or rising above it. Someone square me away if the notion is ill conceived.

 

Your understanding that the ‘means’ (whether they be moving averages, stairsteps, or whatever.) move with ( and lag ) the trend is generally accepted across the board and is not ill concieved. The notion of 'value area' moving in discrete quanta is probably more useful than the concept of a 'mean' moving continuously and more smoothly.

I would suggest you look a little deeper into your preconceptions about “market consensus of the "mean"” though…

 

“Mean reversion” has been thoroughly treated in the trading literature. “Mean excursion”, too, although not explicitly in those terms as much. But, besides MA crossover crap and content about retracement to 'mean' , specifics of methods, techniques, etc. ie basically taking trades at one’s ‘mean’ hasn’t garnered much discussion. That is what this thread is about.

 

Folks, should we infer from the lack of exposition elsewhere and dearth of comment on methods in this thread that traders are making most entries before or after price has contacted ‘mean’, but few are making trades at their ‘mean’? Boys if that's the case...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Folks, should we infer from the lack of exposition elsewhere and dearth of comment on methods in this thread that traders are making most entries before or after price has contacted ‘mean’, but few are making trades at their ‘mean’? Boys if that's the case...

 

Boys, Oh Boys, Oh Boys! It's makes you wonder! :rofl:

 

I really only care about the mean reversion after an unusually big price move in a short period of time, or an extended, steady price move. Other than that I'm looking to exit at price extremes, and re-enter at a better price if I think the trend will continue. If i don't think the trend will continue, I'm looking to enter at price extremes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.