Discussion on Volume, UrmaBlume Wanted

[Orderflow 10]

I would also be interested to see the presentation webinar, is there any possibilities for that?

 

Regards

[joshdance 10]

Forget about precise orderflow analysis and pinpointing the kind of intense commercial activity in the millisecond time frame that forms local and session extremes and stick to those candlesticks.

 

Since you're so confident in the precision of your analysis, why don't you post on this thread when your indicator has pinpointed a local or session low, to see if your analysis works as well in real time as it does on an already-formed chart? Even if it's a minute or two late, it's ok, doesn't have to be at the exact time.

[UrmaBlume 10]

I would also be interested to see the presentation webinar, is there any possibilities for that? Regards

 

Orderflow, Thank you.

 

The last one was entitled "Trading The Extremes."

 

We have found a pattern that repeats itself at least once on most days and multiple times in periods of very high volatility. The pattern involves divergence between price and order flow in a higher time frame as well as the same divergence in a lower time frame PLUS a spike above the "threshold of significance" in machine placed orders by commercial traders.

 

During this last period of super-high volume and volatility this pattern was present on almost every session high on the big down days and every session low on the days with reversals up. The pattern was also present at several intra-session extremes - some of them good for more than 15 points.

 

When I do the next one - I will post notice here.

 

Thanks for your interest.

 

cheers

 

pat

[clmacdougall 11]

Since you're so confident in the precision of your analysis, why don't you post on this thread when your indicator has pinpointed a local or session low, to see if your analysis works as well in real time as it does on an already-formed chart? Even if it's a minute or two late, it's ok, doesn't have to be at the exact time.

 

With all due respect Josh, I don't think anyone is under any obligation to make market calls which might be misinterpreted by the hearer and open the sayer up to litigation. Pat's stuff is some of the most forward thinking theory available on TL and I'm just happy he keeps on writing on this site. I'm sure you've studied lots like the rest of us and if so you realize how hard it is to find good theory after a certain point. His theory is some of the best I've heard and if you'll just delve into that alone you'll end up the better for it.

Just my opinion.

[joshdance 10]

With all due respect Josh, I don't think anyone is under any obligation to make market calls which might be misinterpreted by the hearer and open the sayer up to litigation.

 

Most vendors hide behind this legality issue, but I'm not even asking anyone to make a "call." Just to say, "based on my indicators, we are at a local or session extreme and I would expect a move around X ticks from here" or something. No calls. Not saying "I'm taking this trade" or "you should take this trade," just a demonstration that in real-time, a $100+ per month indicator can be used as something other than a chart decoration.

 

Pat's stuff is some of the most forward thinking theory available on TL and I'm just happy he keeps on writing on this site. I'm sure you've studied lots like the rest of us and if so you realize how hard it is to find good theory after a certain point. His theory is some of the best I've heard and if you'll just delve into that alone you'll end up the better for it.

Just my opinion.

 

I have read many of Pat's posts and have found useful information there in theory. And I am not doubting the validity or fundamental logic of anything he says. But, he seems to imply by his comment to brownie that his methods are quite superior to simple price analysis, and so far I've seen only charts which show a low or high of a session with the indicator confirming it. Even I and other traders make real-time trade reports in the ET "CL Redux" thread, and while I make some bonehead calls, I make some darn good ones too. If I can do it with such primitive, cave-man tools like candlestick charts, surely others with such advanced technology, who are selling something, who have a reason to prove (unlike me) that what they are selling actually works, can at least give it a shot too. The truth is, I really don't care if it works or not, and from what I've seen, it looks quite accurate and probably works just fine. I just don't think it's cool to talk the talk without walking a little walk too. I hope for everyone's sake that they do work as well as claimed, sincerely. I remain skeptical of anyone selling a product which claims such great accuracy, yet who refuses to provide any proof whatsoever. Theories are all well and good, but someone who can't put his theory which he is also selling to a real test is IMO what we call "full of it."

 

I appreciate your thoughts cl, and look forward to discussing more trading ideas with you.

[MightyMouse 12]

Most vendors hide behind this legality issue, but I'm not even asking anyone to make a "call." Just to say, "based on my indicators, we are at a local or session extreme and I would expect a move around X ticks from here" or something. No calls. Not saying "I'm taking this trade" or "you should take this trade," just a demonstration that in real-time, a $100+ per month indicator can be used as something other than a chart decoration.

 

 

 

I have read many of Pat's posts and have found useful information there in theory. And I am not doubting the validity or fundamental logic of anything he says. But, he seems to imply by his comment to brownie that his methods are quite superior to simple price analysis, and so far I've seen only charts which show a low or high of a session with the indicator confirming it. Even I and other traders make real-time trade reports in the ET "CL Redux" thread, and while I make some bonehead calls, I make some darn good ones too. If I can do it with such primitive, cave-man tools like candlestick charts, surely others with such advanced technology, who are selling something, who have a reason to prove (unlike me) that what they are selling actually works, can at least give it a shot too. The truth is, I really don't care if it works or not, and from what I've seen, it looks quite accurate and probably works just fine. I just don't think it's cool to talk the talk without walking a little walk too. I hope for everyone's sake that they do work as well as claimed, sincerely. I remain skeptical of anyone selling a product which claims such great accuracy, yet who refuses to provide any proof whatsoever. Theories are all well and good, but someone who can't put his theory which he is also selling to a real test is IMO what we call "full of it."

 

I appreciate your thoughts cl, and look forward to discussing more trading ideas with you.[/quote

 

Josh,

 

Vendors and vendor-type individuals target the misplaced fascination that traders have with buying or selling the low or high respectively. Buying the low, for instance, is ideal to most traders because it represents a trade that he did not have to deal with any heat.Heat is pain and new traders want to avoid pain. After the fact, it also represents the maximum gain you could have taken from a move because the trader would, of course, sell the position at the high. Vendors prey on the desire to avoid pain. As long as a trader remains fascinated with buying the low or selling the high, he will remain new.

 

Vendors are typically people who never quite learned how to trade, but want to remain close to the markets and are skilled at avoiding exposure.

 

MM

[clmacdougall 11]

Most vendors hide behind this legality issue, but I'm not even asking anyone to make a "call." Just to say, "based on my indicators, we are at a local or session extreme and I would expect a move around X ticks from here" or something. No calls. Not saying "I'm taking this trade" or "you should take this trade," just a demonstration that in real-time, a $100+ per month indicator can be used as something other than a chart decoration.

 

 

 

I have read many of Pat's posts and have found useful information there in theory. And I am not doubting the validity or fundamental logic of anything he says. But, he seems to imply by his comment to brownie that his methods are quite superior to simple price analysis, and so far I've seen only charts which show a low or high of a session with the indicator confirming it. Even I and other traders make real-time trade reports in the ET "CL Redux" thread, and while I make some bonehead calls, I make some darn good ones too. If I can do it with such primitive, cave-man tools like candlestick charts, surely others with such advanced technology, who are selling something, who have a reason to prove (unlike me) that what they are selling actually works, can at least give it a shot too. The truth is, I really don't care if it works or not, and from what I've seen, it looks quite accurate and probably works just fine. I just don't think it's cool to talk the talk without walking a little walk too. I hope for everyone's sake that they do work as well as claimed, sincerely. I remain skeptical of anyone selling a product which claims such great accuracy, yet who refuses to provide any proof whatsoever. Theories are all well and good, but someone who can't put his theory which he is also selling to a real test is IMO what we call "full of it."

 

I appreciate your thoughts cl, and look forward to discussing more trading ideas with you.[/quote

 

Josh,

 

Vendors and vendor-type individuals target the misplaced fascination that traders have with buying or selling the low or high respectively. Buying the low, for instance, is ideal to most traders because it represents a trade that he did not have to deal with any heat.Heat is pain and new traders want to avoid pain. After the fact, it also represents the maximum gain you could have taken from a move because the trader would, of course, sell the position at the high. Vendors prey on the desire to avoid pain. As long as a trader remains fascinated with buying the low or selling the high, he will remain new.

 

Vendors are typically people who never quite learned how to trade, but want to remain close to the markets and are skilled at avoiding exposure.

 

MM

 

Whether right or wrong MM, you are generalizing. I'm sure there are vendors who have risk to reward ratios in keeping with reality. As none of us have purchased Pat's indicators or service why subject him or it to unjustified ridicule.

Are vendors a certain height or weight as well? I have no idea as to whether or not Pat's service is worthwhile but I sure appreciate him sharing his knowledge and well thought through insight. If you have something to say contrary or in addition to his theory than let us know, otherwise please don't scare him away from TL or we'll have nothing but elliott waves to count or fibonacci ratios to debate about instead of some more meaty theory to dig into.

[MightyMouse 12]

 

Whether right or wrong MM, you are generalizing. I'm sure there are vendors who have risk to reward ratios in keeping with reality. As none of us have purchased Pat's indicators or service why subject him or it to unjustified ridicule.

Are vendors a certain height or weight as well? I have no idea as to whether or not Pat's service is worthwhile but I sure appreciate him sharing his knowledge and well thought through insight. If you have something to say contrary or in addition to his theory than let us know, otherwise please don't scare him away from TL or we'll have nothing but elliott waves to count or fibonacci ratios to debate about instead of some more meaty theory to dig into.

 

If they could trade, then why would they vend? Is it that they like writing code, marketing, and selling better than they like trading? I suppose that could be. In general when it walks like a duck... Also, I wasn't specifically speaking of anyone in particular