Discussion on Volume, UrmaBlume Wanted

[UrmaBlume 10]

Pat, I'm on my knees begging you to please start this meeting 2-3 hours after the markets have closed. I've got to work tomorrow and would die just thinking about missing that meeting. Is there anyway?

 

No worries Cory. There will be another one and a recorded one and if you give me a call sometime after the close and towards the end of the week, I will give you a private one.

 

cheers

 

pat

[clmacdougall 11]

Thanks a million Pat!!

[joshdance 10]

My pleasure.

 

There will be a Webinar on "Trading the Extremes" on Tuesday 08/09 at 0830 PST - registration opens at 0800 PST - limited to first 100. Plenty of time to "Ask Urma" after 15-20 minute presentation on how to locate local and session highs and lows using order flow and locating intense commercial activity http://bit.ly/n9XF9D

 

cheers

 

pat

 

Pat, will the information in the webinar be applicable primarily with the use of your indicators, which you lease at $1400/yr, or will the information be usable by those without your indicators?

[clmacdougall 11]

And where should it be? And why should it be there?

 

Hi Joshdance!

I would really encourage you to read UB's posts over and over again. Don't look at the technical stuff, but the theory behind what he does. It will allow you to look at the market for yourself in a way which is meaningful. Once you've gotten a hold of that theory you can work it forward in your own way. That's all I'm doing , nobody has given me any special training but I'm beginning to see things differently. Today will mark my 5th year of studying. I started just a few weeks before my youngest boy was born, he'll start school in a few weeks! What a journey!!

[joshdance 10]

Today will mark my 5th year of studying. I started just a few weeks before my youngest boy was born, he'll start school in a few weeks! What a journey!!

 

5th year of studying UB's info?

 

Congrats on your journey-- I sent the kids off to their first day of school today as well (a bit older than yours though), quite amazing to see them grow month by month..

[clmacdougall 11]

5th year of studying UB's info?

 

Congrats on your journey-- I sent the kids off to their first day of school today as well (a bit older than yours though), quite amazing to see them grow month by month..

 

I wish I had started with UB's take on the markets years ago. No, I studied mostly price based information for years, just like a good newb I guess. How about yourself, where or how did you lose your way and have you found your way yet?

[joshdance 10]

I wish I had started with UB's take on the markets years ago. No, I studied mostly price based information for years, just like a good newb I guess. How about yourself, where or how did you lose your way and have you found your way yet?

 

I began in forex a few years ago but then took a couple of years off after losing a little money, and now I'm trading futures, usually oil, though obviously this past week had my interested piqued in the indexes. I won't say I've "found my way" yet, but I'm certainly on the right track, based on my results. I have some bad days, and some good days, but overall my discipline is improving, which is my biggest problem. I went through the indicator circus when I first started, and for that reason am not interested in using free indicators which only obscure things for me, much less paying for them. Especially when in the words of the author (UB's company) "the screen captures/charts in this posting have been 'cherry picked' to show the various indicators at their best and may not reflect average performance."

 

However, the concepts do make sense, and in that sense I am interested. But if the concepts require an indicator to see the "real picture" of what's going on, one that costs $100+ a month, then I'm not interested--if that makes sense.

 

My trading primarily involves price, and wyckoffian-type volume analysis. It's simple, logical, and works quite well. When I have good days in the market, it's because I took smart trades and was patient. When I have down days, it's almost always because I forced trades, and made other errors. The success lies in my discipline.

 

How about you--do you use any indicators in your trading that you have found helpful, or no? I am not an anti-indicator guy by the way I think they are great if they can help someone make good trading decisions.

[clmacdougall 11]

I don't use any published indicators. I'm creating my own which more effectively show me what I'm trying to see in the market. My studies are based on my own comparative behavioral analysis.

[joshdance 10]

I don't use any published indicators. I'm creating my own which more effectively show me what I'm trying to see in the market. My studies are based on my own comparative behavioral analysis.

 

Very cool--good luck and I hope you have lots of success!

[clmacdougall 11]

Thanks, it's been nice meeting you!

[joshdance 10]

Thanks, it's been nice meeting you!

 

Likewise cl--I look forward to reading more of your posts. Have fun with ES today -- Obama to speak in 10 minutes, get ready to short

[clmacdougall 11]

Be careful shorting, this market is slowing it's decrease incredibly fast, you could run into some upwards movement really soon now ES 1136.00 at 13:12 cst

[joshdance 10]

Be careful shorting, this market is slowing it's decrease incredibly fast, you could run into some upwards movement really soon now ES 1136.00 at 13:12 cst

 

No reason to long this market. Trend followers are tenacious and will keep shorting, especially when El Presidente speaks.

 

Either way, I was shorting the nice $2 drop in oil over the last 15 minutes. It can always go lower.

[clmacdougall 11]

This market is now effectively flat to mildly positive.

[joshdance 10]

This market is now effectively flat to mildly positive.

 

At the moment, perhaps it is--after a 75 handle range and nearly 200 handle drop since last Monday, I would expect some kind of relief... but calling it "positive" is "positive thinking" I think ;-) Longing this is swimming against the stream, that's for sure. Put another way, the easy money has been to the short side to a degree not seen in a long time.

[clmacdougall 11]

I am referring only to market action in the now, from last nights open. I am not taking anything else as part of a contextual framework other than that. There is no trade to take now. If I was still short, I'd cash it in and do nothing IMO.

[clmacdougall 11]

It is now mildly positive.

[joshdance 10]

It is now mildly positive.

 

I am not trading this as I had a very positive CL day and do not normally trade ES (IOW, don't want to screw up my profits ), but if I were, the first confirmed long for me would have been at 3:07 ET. Break out of bull flag, nice picture.

[clmacdougall 11]

Joshdance, do you trade based upon chart patterns?

[joshdance 10]

Joshdance, do you trade based upon chart patterns?

 

That is part of my equation, yes. But I don't trade solely based on this. I trade them when the market context indicates to me that they are reliable. For example, at 3:07, after the breakout of the flag and retest, it was almost a given that 35.25 would be retested at least, and given the time of day and lack of further selling pressure, it's a good long IMO. The volume supported the trade as well. Please feel free to call me just Josh if you like, that is my name.

[clmacdougall 11]

Will do Josh, it's been alot of fun but I've got to go and get my wife some milk from the store. Maybe we'll hook up again later.I've been domesticated!!

[joshdance 10]

Will do Josh, it's been alot of fun but I've got to go and get my wife some milk from the store. Maybe we'll hook up again later.I've been domesticated!!

 

haha! You just know how to keep the woman happy--all of us men have to learn that skill at some point or our lives will be much less pleasant!

[brownsfan019 17]

Pat - you in the business of being a vendor now I see? Quite a 180 turn from what you used to say around here. For awhile the company line was you and your team would never consider selling these... And now, for a measly $1400 they can be yours!

 

Gotta wonder why the big turn, right? They are working so well that now you can afford to give them away for $1400? Or...

[UrmaBlume 10]

Pat - you in the business of being a vendor now I see? Quite a 180 turn from what you used to say around here. For awhile the company line was you and your team would never consider selling these... And now, for a measly $1400 they can be yours!Gotta wonder why the big turn, right? They are working so well that now you can afford to give them away for $1400? Or...

 

Brownie,

 

Thanks for the tout. Yes, after years and hundreds of requests (you were one of them) we have started leasing some of our retail products. If you had been one of the hundred people who attended a webinar today on locating session extremes using our gear and had heard the praises and brags from our users, your questions would be answered.

 

Forget about precise orderflow analysis and pinpointing the kind of intense commercial activity in the millisecond time frame that forms local and session extremes and stick to those candlesticks.

 

UrmaBlume

[BlowFish 10]

Pat, will the information in the webinar be applicable primarily with the use of your indicators, which you lease at $1400/yr, or will the information be usable by those without your indicators?

 

Personally if the information is not based on underlying principles it is at best of dubious value (imvho) at worse.....well I am sure you can work it out.

 

UB has generously shared enough information about his indicators to come up with ones own implementations of them. (well with suitable skills I suppose). Of course he has had quite a long time to twiddle with pre and post processing but every one has there own favourite approaches to that thorny old chestnut and at the end of the day it is not that determines the usefulness of the indicator.

 

Anyway I guess I have missed the webinar by now, shame, I'd have liked to attend.

 

@Brown nice to see you are still around, few of the 'old hands' post with anything like regularity nowadays.