Scalping ES for a Living

[jackb 10]

@jackb And, I did that to avoid all the people trying to tell me how to trade, how to read a book and go do it.. all the things I'm getting here! It didn't work.

 

I will tell you something, I am the most OPEN trader of anyone around. I guarantee you that most traders whether it is was with SIMULATOR or real money can not produce my returns!! Not for 6 months or a year.. I know this because my systems are top ranked out of all the thousands people have tried to make. And they try very hard, too. So, yes I am a successful trader by QUANTITATIVE measures. Against anything I can measure it too. Am I successful compared to people anonymous people on a board or compared to vendors who let you dream up the returns? Who cares. It can't be measured.

 

Why do you think everyone is so upset that I'm so frank about things? That I'm so honest.. because everyone is running around losing money and not wanting to admit it. Everyone is running around and afraid to realize the Emperor has no clothes!

 

Sure, maybe you did great on a simulator. Did you ever reset it? Start over? I can't do that with my record! Try to do what I did for # months I've did.. lets see how easy it is!! Maybe you did with real money but gave it all back.. Whatever i do is on my record.. good or bad and for anyone to see. No resetting. No lies. No "I don't predict the market.. I just scalp". This was another trick that Senters used, the "I don't predict market.. I just scalp". My thought was, "okay if true then why bother with the worthless analysis?"

 

Anyway, I'm about ready to say this is settled. We've not heard from a single person stating they do these returns or vouching that they took every trade in the room and did these returns. We had a few first time posters telling me to go sign up with them. The reports from people who had tried their service were terrible.

 

I'll leave it open. Maybe we will hear from some scalpers eventually or for from more people who took every trade with real money in the Larry Levines scalping room. Please speak up!

 

Any full time scalpers in crude or 6e here? Looking forward to hearing what type of returns you've experience and what size account you did it with.

 

You've only been trading with real money since April and you don't have enough equity to be a sponsor. That makes you a nobody. If you can't understand that simple bit of logic, then you have way more problems to deal with than figuring out how to become a successful trader. And your obstinate tendencies are a trait the market loves to feed on. You undoubtedly don't understand that now, but you will...and I suspect in a big way.

[Predictor 11]

I just wanted to give an update. I've spoke with a few people privately who I've no reason to doubt who are making good money scalping. It seems I'm hearing from a few sources: they are trading CL and 6E.

 

However, I haven't been given any evidence to believe this vendor's claims. I've one good report about the market profile room and several negative reports about the scalping room. I'm glad people replied who had real experience with this vendor.

 

Thanks.

[Tradewinds 12]

@jdevron

If you are to imply that just because I have superior ability that it infers I would easily get a job. This is not realistic. I knew a lot of brilliant programmers growing up and many didn't have a job. They did open source. I was in the top 20% of programmers for years before I was able to get a job and when I finally got into the field, I was surprised I was among the best. Getting a job is more about meeting the requirements, . . .

 

Businesses and people do NOT recognize or value exceptional people. In fact, exceptional people are basically overlooked and probably even discounted. The business model is to hire monkeys who can be trained, and will try to do what you tell them to do.

 

Sorry if I'm off the subject.

[Tams 20]

I see the previous thread here. First, let me start by stating that I'm a *very* successful trader. I am already more successful by measurable means then most. I have 2 of the top ranked futures systems at C2 greater then 6 months old (one discretionary and one quantitative). I've been over there at that other trading forum. However, I'm thinking of moving here because there doesn't seem to be a lot of quality posting going on over there.

 

I have 2 questions. Please read them carefully.

 

1. Has anyone taken every trade in Larry Levines trading room with eral money and do the results match the hypothetical results they send out? I seen what happened to the other thread about his program. Please do not share your experience unless you have taken every trade with real money for at least 1 month (or as close as possible).

 

2. They claim they do around 5k NET per month with only 5k in the account trading 1-3 ES contracts with a max stop of 2 points. They actually average around 7-8k month net. I do not believe that is possible. They claimed over 100k profits last year trading 1-3 contracts. They sent me an Excel file but no real money track record. If anyone here can do that with 5k account and produce real money track results for at least 1 year then I'd be willing to do 2 things: A. Pay you and B. Pay you for mentoring. Again, let me be frank I do not believe that it is possible. I, also, offering mentoring and trade the ES nearly exclusively on hypothetical account. I take proxy trades with rea money at NADEX since April -- for every trade I place. I have very strong returns but nothing like that. The average trade profit is around $20 per trade they claim. This is very low.

 

I honestly, think, it would be difficult to trade the ES for a living with even 100k. Most everything has told me one needs around 300k to trade for a living.

 

So you changed your handle from light65536 to Predictor !

 

That's snakey.

[noego 10]

So you changed your handle from light65536 to Predictor !

 

That's snakey.

 

And still very successful by most measurable means.

[VaughanV 10]

Does the under-current to this thread not prove that paper-trading leads to overconfidence?

 

Predictor, look past the tone of the responses you have received and rather take on board the valuable insights that you have inadvertently garnered.

 

Every successful trader had to find out what worked for them. They paid their dues largely by overcoming themselves.

 

Most people arrive at the markets with some money, a method and no mind. They trade off the money to build up the other two, but most bet big initially and blow out.

 

Their egos get in the way of learning the craft. (Why do you think one of the respondents calls himself "No Ego" - he's learnt his lesson, like we all had to.

 

You could spend weeks with Tiger Woods learning to play golf, but you will never ever play as well as him. Spending time with the best trader will not make you the best trader. Stop focusing on the method alone, a trader's psychological makeup is unique to that trader - that deserves as much attention.

 

Good judgement comes from bad experiences. Go and get yourself some bad experiences, but try and keep them as cheap as possible.

 

Come back to this thread when you are ready to learn.

 

Peace.

[noego 10]

Very well said Vaughn.

[Predictor 11]

>Good judgement comes from bad experiences. Go and get yourself >some bad experiences, but try and keep them as cheap as possible.

 

I would disagree to some extent. The trader who hasn't had a bad experience may trade better then the one who has. This holds true in Gymnastics where the younger gymnasts aren't afraid to do the moves whereas older gymnasts may have memories of painful accidents. The same is true of heart attack. If you've had one you are prone to another because you've weakened the muscle.

 

I'd say the same could be true for trading. I know it is because I've always won but have had losing streaks. My resilience is much higher then if I had lost to begin with. This also true in condition responses. Of course, this is the basis also behind problem gambling but would equally apply to successful trading. At any rate, I'd say that often bad experiences may be the result of bad behaviors and we all know that behaviors are hard to correct. I'd say a trader like Rob Hoffman has a much greater chance of blowing up again then a trader who controls risks and understands the market can do anything.

-----------

 

Enough of that, I wanted to update what TradingAdvantage and one of Larry's reps had to say to my question about if Dan's results were made with real money.

 

Does Dan take every trade with real money?

 

This is education.. blah blah blah

 

Can you show me the real money results from Dan's room?

 

No. that's illegal. They'd shut this place down in a heart beat. You will never get the real money results from us.

---

 

I've never heard that showing a real money equity curve is illegal if it is a real money equity curve. I'm absolutely done with these jokers.

[clmacdougall 11]

So you changed your handle from light65536 to Predictor !

 

That's snakey.

 

Tams you are making me laugh again:haha: Careful not to drive this cat off the edge, he'll wear his fingers out with a respose to your one liner questions. Too funny!!

[Do Or Die 10]

(deleted)...............

Edited August 25, 2011 by Do Or Die

[TRADEZILLA 10]

Predictor,

$50k/yr is VERY possible trading no more than 2-3 contracts on each set up with a 2pt stop, so a $10k account can accomplish this on ES, though $5k may be bit slim with potential drawdowns... However, I've yet to see an automated sytem accomplish this and def no vendors looking to make $$ from you advertising this..

 

PM me as I trade with a small skype group and you will see this done live and for free.. I'd like to see you perform this live as well.. Generally, I'm not a scalper though that's how I traded in the past, but will often exit my trades early when I see something that warrants an early exit, which turns some trades into scalps.. BTW-what's the fixation with that vendor with big claims? Many vendors have similar claims..

TZ

[lvjames 10]

I have a question for Mr. Levine.

 

If you could make 7 to 8 thousand dollars per month on a $5,000 account, why would you sell your services? You could trade 10 contracts per trade and make 70 to 80 thousand dollars a month. Or, you could trade 100 contracts per signal and make 700 to 800 thousand dollars a month. The ES is so liquid that you could probably trade 500 or a 1,000 contracts at a clip without affecting the market. That would give you 50 to a 100 million dollars a year.

 

This same question goes to another burned out floor trader named Oscar that I see on You Tube.

[VTK 10]

Good judgement comes from bad experiences. Go and get yourself some bad experiences, but try and keep them as cheap as possible.

 

Good one,VaughanV!

 

As mine favorite trader once wrote;

".....Instead of being afraid to fail, I now understood that

success is IMPOSSIBLE without some failure.Most people are afraid of failure in any part of life, especially trading. You have to understand that failure does not happen TO YOU, it happens FOR YOU. It is an opportunity to grow. When you shift your mind and think this way, you will smile with each failure, knowing

that you have just identified a flaw that needs to be corrected or removed. Adversity is scary in the moment, but it is always when we

grow the most. How wonderful adversity and failure really are."

 

Sorry for offtopicking!(is this even a word!? )

[kgrodrigue 10]

Were basically all looking at the same math in some form or another. Pick a system and stick to it and create your own edge....

 

It wont work all the time even the perfect one will fail. But its random so you just have to know when to get out and be ready to jump back in even though your mind is saying dont.

Based on your stats you should in this instance be profitable overtime....It should work based on your stats 7 out of 10 times etc....

 

 

Remember consistency come from within...

[Ronin 10]

>Good judgement comes from bad experiences. Go and get yourself >some bad experiences, but try and keep them as cheap as possible.

 

I would disagree to some extent. The trader who hasn't had a bad experience may trade better then the one who has. This holds true in Gymnastics where the younger gymnasts aren't afraid to do the moves whereas older gymnasts may have memories of painful accidents. The same is true of heart attack. If you've had one you are prone to another because you've weakened the muscle.

 

I'd say the same could be true for trading. I know it is because I've always won but have had losing streaks. My resilience is much higher then if I had lost to begin with. This also true in condition responses. Of course, this is the basis also behind problem gambling but would equally apply to successful trading. At any rate, I'd say that often bad experiences may be the result of bad behaviors and we all know that behaviors are hard to correct. I'd say a trader like Rob Hoffman has a much greater chance of blowing up again then a trader who controls risks and understands the market can do anything.

-----------

 

Enough of that, I wanted to update what TradingAdvantage and one of Larry's reps had to say to my question about if Dan's results were made with real money.

 

Does Dan take every trade with real money?

 

This is education.. blah blah blah

 

Can you show me the real money results from Dan's room?

 

No. that's illegal. They'd shut this place down in a heart beat. You will never get the real money results from us.

---

 

I've never heard that showing a real money equity curve is illegal if it is a real money equity curve. I'm absolutely done with these jokers.

 

Agree, I asked the same question to one of the Larry Levine's reps and he never answer it.

What is amazing is the CNBC brief appearances were Larry Levine never made a significant valuable comment about the markets ! only some vague useless bullshit.

 

I was interested in taking his training last year to improve upon my method from 75% win ratio scalping the ES using one point stop loss and 2 points target, but decided not to.

[MightyMouse 12]

Predictor,

$50k/yr is VERY possible trading no more than 2-3 contracts on each set up with a 2pt stop, so a $10k account can accomplish this on ES, though $5k may be bit slim with potential drawdowns... However, I've yet to see an automated sytem accomplish this and def no vendors looking to make $$ from you advertising this..

 

PM me as I trade with a small skype group and you will see this done live and for free.. I'd like to see you perform this live as well.. Generally, I'm not a scalper though that's how I traded in the past, but will often exit my trades early when I see something that warrants an early exit, which turns some trades into scalps.. BTW-what's the fixation with that vendor with big claims? Many vendors have similar claims..

TZ

 

Pardon me for injecting a little reality into the thread, but to make 50k a year trading 2-3 contracts with a 2 point stop, and risking 2 pts to make 2 points, you'd need to be right 60% of the time and would have to take 22-33 trades a day. One to one trades at a 60% win rate gives you a net of about $3 a trade. If you can find that many profitable opportunities in es, then $50k a year becomes possible trading 2-3 contracts; otherwise, it is fantasy.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Pardon me for injecting a little reality into the thread, but to make 50k a year trading 2-3 contracts with a 2 point stop, and risking 2 pts to make 2 points, you'd need to be right 60% of the time and would have to take 22-33 trades a day. One to one trades at a 60% win rate gives you a net of about $3 a trade. If you can find that many profitable opportunities in es, then $50k a year becomes possible trading 2-3 contracts; otherwise, it is fantasy.

 

MM,

 

Sorry, just to look at those figures you quote again.

 

Assume you hit +2 points 60% of the time and -2 points 40% of the time.

 

Trading 1 single lot in ES 10 times a day you would get 6 winners and 4 losers so net 2 winners and +4 points. 4 points per day at 20 days per month 12 months per year = 960 points per year. 1 ES point = $50. $50 x 960 = $48,000 per year. Of course then you have to deduct comms which could knock up to a quarter off that total if you are on a high retail $5/RT rate- $5 per trade x 10 trades per day x 20 days per month x 12 months per year = $12,000.

 

So how did you get 22-33 trades per day? Did you use the round turn figure instead of the number of trades?

Edited December 12, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[MightyMouse 12]

MM,

 

Sorry, just to look at those figures you quote again.

 

Assume you hit +2 points 60% of the time and -2 points 40% of the time.

 

Trading 1 single lot in ES 10 times a day you would get 6 winners and 4 losers so net 2 winners and +4 points. 4 points per day at 20 days per month 12 months per year = 960 points per year. 1 ES point = $50. $50 x 960 = $48,000 per year. Of course then you have to deduct comms which could knock up to a quarter off that total if you are on a high retail $5/RT rate- $5 per trade x 10 trades per day x 20 days per month x 12 months per year = $12,000.

 

So how did you get 22-33 trades per day? Did you use the round turn figure instead of the number of trades?

 

When I trade, I pay the spread and commissions. If scalping you will definitely pay the spread. 22-33 depending on if you trade 2 or 3 contracts.

[TheNegotiator 13]

When I trade, I pay the spread and commissions. If scalping you will definitely pay the spread. 22-33 depending on if you trade 2 or 3 contracts.

 

If you mean you are trading at market by "the spread", that doesn't matter. The example was you make 2 points or you lose 2 points. Not the market is printing x ticks higher or lower and so you would make or lose a different amount based on best market price.

[MightyMouse 12]

If you mean you are trading at market by "the spread", that doesn't matter. The example was you make 2 points or you lose 2 points. Not the market is printing x ticks higher or lower and so you would make or lose a different amount based on best market price.

 

If you are getting out in a 8 tick move plus or minus then you make 3 bucks a trade. You can only get 7 ticks if the market moves 8 ticks. Unless you have the ability to sell at the ask or buy at the bid to exit with 100% fills. I am not talking theory.

 

If you are getting out when it moves 9 ticks in your favor or 8 ticks against you that is a different story. That is not a 1 to 1.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Apologies MM, I must be mistaken. My assumption when someone says a system makes 2 points or loses 2 points is that this is the performance on execution. If we're taking about how far a market moves favourably before an exit is taken, that's a completely different analysis to what I understood the exercise to be about.

[MightyMouse 12]

Apologies MM, I must be mistaken. My assumption when someone says a system makes 2 points or loses 2 points is that this is the performance on execution. If we're taking about how far a market moves favourably before an exit is taken, that's a completely different analysis to what I understood the exercise to be about.

 

TN, if a market moves in your favor 8 ticks, you can't get out at will. We can even say the same about entering, but we can always avoid the trade, if we do not get filled. I know you know this, but I see that others don't consider it.

 

You will get taken out if the market hits your 8 tick stop. You can only guarantee yourself 7 ticks if the market moves 8 ticks from when you get in.

[Predictor 11]

I thought I'd add some color since last touching this topic. I have some of the top ranked public ES systems, and I also monitor the best ES traders that I can find. What I've found is that excellent ES day traders/systems will average around $30 per contract after costs. Anywhere from $10 to $40 per contract is typical. The more one trades then the lower this number tends to go. I have some day trading systems that trade infrequently that can do much more.

 

It is easy to extrapolate and estimate the number of contracts required that one must trade to do the claims they make. At 5k per month (and they had some months showing more then that), then you need to trade roughly 250 contracts/month or about 12 contracts per day.

 

Also, I've monitored trading competitions where we know the traders are both professional and taking more risk then one would in a normal account and returns over 4x-6x are excellent and top of field. They were showing returns of 24x!!

 

Realistically, this means that an excellent trader in a best case scenario might do 30k on a 5k account over a year. This is an excellent return but a far cry from the 24x returns they claim. More over, such a return could easily be strong enough to win a trading competition. Think also, even at "only" 100% return over about 5-8 years it is possible to take a 10k account to over a million dollars!

 

I believe that it is possible to make a lot in futures market if one is very skilled and perhaps doesn't get too unlucky. It is certainly possible to make a whole lot over an intermediate time frame.

 

But 24x in one year, I have not seen anyone do this. The only way possible would be to trade 24/7 but again with 5k then the overnight session wouldn't be an option. I admit it seems like it shouldn't be that difficult but all the data suggest otherwise. Even risking 15% to 20% of the account per day, I think it would be difficult to hit those numbers.

 

I'll grant it is conceivably possible but great claims require great proof. I certainly don't believe they are doing that.

 

---

Curtis

themarketpredictor.com

Edited January 9, 2012 by Predictor

[slick60 10]

I don't know if this is the right thread to post this chart in or not. I wonder if it would help anybody to know what the probable direction of the market to be on when they are trading. OR is it for naught anyway as everyone is only after $50.00 at a time.

 

snap of the daily ES chart

2012-01-13_1152 - slick60's library

 

 

slick 60