Trading the Storm - Methods for the Struggling Trader

[Maelstrom 10]

Out at 12628 all contracts on close above previously noted stop. +24 per contract - far from a sexy trade, but them's the breaks sometimes.

[Maelstrom 10]

This is the sort of thing you can kick yourself for sometimes

 

[Maelstrom 10]

Just a possibility..... won't trade it, but will be interesting to see if it goes down here.

 

M

 

[Maelstrom 10]

  adam777 said:

Hi M

 

Do you use the range in the blue box on the left as the extension for the target (ie placing the range of the blue box at the bottom of the entry candle) ?

 

Please see my comments on your chart for a better expaination of my question.

 

Adam,

 

You use the formation just prior to your entry bar.....so in this instance, the first extension would be based off of the next formation (the one right before the first oval)

 

M

[IamJon 10]

  Maelstrom said:

 

... because as careful as I have tried to be in laying things out, I think some things may have been skipped over, put in the wrong order, or frankly just been unclear.

 

M, it's up to us to ask questions and put it all together.

 

  Quote

I have given some thought to putting together a pdf or document with everything laid out as clearly as possible, but that would be a pretty significant effort, and I am really not sure how many people would find that useful.

 

I would find it very useful but, it's all in the thread and it is up to me to take the effort to read it.

 

  Quote

Good news is, the thread is just about at it's end.... not much more to go over.I think I have gotten just about everything out that I wanted to, disjointed as it may be.

 

M, one of the things I don't believe you covered was how to handle support/resistance unless the recent rules to handle a choppy market is just that.

 

  Quote

Perhaps I will start a journal in that section to post my trades real time and results in case anyone is trying to follow.

 

You already have a thread to journal your trades. There just haven't been any posts there since the end of June.

 

J

[Maelstrom 10]

Jon,

 

All good points - thanks! As for S&R, some is what I have gone over, and there is a little more that I look at, but I am going to hold off on that for now. Enough confusion out there already

 

M

[Maelstrom 10]

Ok, losses..... yes, they suck. But, for me, I like looking at them as opportunities.

 

The way I trade is basically from confirmed tops to confirmed bottoms, and vice versa. That is why if I had a long trade, my next trade will only be a short.

 

The "dark side" of that is the following..... if I finish up a short trade, I will be looking for a long. Assuming a signal comes up for that long, everything looks great, I pull the trigger, and.... it turns and becomes a losing trade. Of course, what does that market do? Probably takes off like a rocket in the direction I wanted right after stopping me out.

 

Do I re-enter? No. Will I then be looking for a short? Yes. I may be sitting on my hands for a while watching the market go by, but I have not yet found a reliable re-entry into a trend - this is something I still need to work on. The flip side is, losses for me open up an opportunity to take the next trade with the trend.

 

Ok, enough of that, but I will go over how a loss affects my next trade - it's really simple.

 

If I take a loss, I am looking for an opposite trade, but I disregard the first formation in my intended direction and only take trade signals based off of the second formation.

 

Example - short trade, and it takes a loss. Now looking for longs, and I get an upward intention move. I ignore that move and wait for a second upward formation to trade off of.

 

My logic behind this is, if I take a loss, there is a good chance we are in a congestion period and that is what caused the stop out. I want the market to scream at me "yes, I am moving in a definitive direction!" before I get into another trade.

 

This has kept me out of some choppy action several times. Yes, I run the risk of getting in late to a new trend, but I have found this to work very well for me.

 

M

[Maelstrom 10]

Well, set out with a purpose of laying out my trading method to help those who might need a hand in finding profitability. Not sure if I did that or not, but hopefully, I have at least been able to spark an idea or two in a few traders out there.

 

The majority of how I trade is outlined in this thread. I think there may be more than a couple of points that I did not explain as clearly as I should, but as IamJon said, questions can always be put forth. But, no need to grow a thread further just for the sake of posting.

 

I want to say thank you once again to everyone who has visited and/or contributed to the thread. I am still amazed at the community here at TL....an excellent group of people, and some great traders to boot. Thanks for the opportunity.

 

I will still be around the forums, and available if anyone has questions or comments - feel free to post here, or send a PM.

 

Thanks for following guys, and I wish you all the very best in your trading!

 

M

[YMoca 10]

M

 

First of all thanks again for starting this thread.

 

Now a few questions.

- How do you determine whether the first trade for a new week will be long or short?

- Do you take the set-up off of the 1st intention move?

- Do you wait for an overall trend to form, and then look for the 1st opposite signal?

-Also, when the market gaps open like it did Sunday night, do you count that move down as an intention move?

 

just wondering how you would have traded last nights/this mornings action.

 

Thanks

 

YMoca

 

[Maelstrom 10]

  YMoca said:

M

 

First of all thanks again for starting this thread.

 

Now a few questions.

- How do you determine whether the first trade for a new week will be long or short?

- Do you take the set-up off of the 1st intention move?

- Do you wait for an overall trend to form, and then look for the 1st opposite signal?

-Also, when the market gaps open like it did Sunday night, do you count that move down as an intention move?

 

just wondering how you would have traded last nights/this mornings action.

 

Thanks

 

YMoca

 

 

YM,

 

Great questions, let me try to answer.

 

- How do you determine whether the first trade for a new week will be long or short?

 

Everything is a continuation from the last trade. Last Friday, the last qualified trade was a short, which I took and got stopped out with a relatively small profit in the congestion period. So, this morning, I was only looking for longs. Weekends, overnight, etc.... none of those things matter. I simply look at the last direction a completed trade occurred, and then look only for the opposite.

 

- Do you take the set-up off of the 1st intention move?

 

Yes, as long as the following occur:

- there is a closing bar above the formation ( for longs)

- the pullback movements do not exceed the bottom of the formation (again for longs, everything in reverse for shorts)

 

- Do you wait for an overall trend to form, and then look for the 1st opposite signal?

 

A trend for me is once there has been a confirmed formation ( 3 or more bars in a direction, then a close beyond the formation in the formation direction). Friday, the down trend was confirmed for me when a downward formation formed (started at 05:45 cst) and was confirmed once a bar closed below the formation. Trend remained down until this morning with the upward formation that began last night around 17:02 cst.

 

-Also, when the market gaps open like it did Sunday night, do you count that move down as an intention move?

 

That is a difficult one, but yes, I do usually count that gap as an intention move.

 

 

Today, I took the long trade that you indicated on your chart (spot on with your entry bar btw!) , and unfortunately, was stopped out to the tick. But, now looking for shorts (and ignoring that 1st downward formation that formed this morning)

 

 

Hope that helps!

M

[Maelstrom 10]

I made an inaccurate statement in my last post, so let's see if anyone can identify it and why (hint - it was part of my answer to question #3).

 

Yes, I make mistakes..... lots of them actually lol

 

M

[YMoca 10]

  Maelstrom said:

 

Trend remained down until this morning with the upward formation that began last night around 17:02 cst.

 

 

The only thing I can see is that it should have been more specific and said.

 

"Trend remained down until this morning "when there was a close above" the upward formation that began last night around 17:02 cst.

 

That's all I can see

 

YMoca

[Maelstrom 10]

  YMoca said:

The only thing I can see is that it should have been more specific and said.

 

"Trend remained down until this morning "when there was a close above" the upward formation that began last night around 17:02 cst.

 

That's all I can see

 

YMoca

 

Good catch, but the downward formation I referenced from Friday was an invalid one. See post #172.

 

Sorry for that - trade was over and done, so out of sight, out of mind.

 

M

[mslk 10]

  Maelstrom said:

Well, set out with a purpose of laying out my trading method to help those who might need a hand in finding profitability. Not sure if I did that or not, but hopefully, I have at least been able to spark an idea or two in a few traders out there.

 

The majority of how I trade is outlined in this thread. I think there may be more than a couple of points that I did not explain as clearly as I should, but as IamJon said, questions can always be put forth. But, no need to grow a thread further just for the sake of posting.

 

I want to say thank you once again to everyone who has visited and/or contributed to the thread. I am still amazed at the community here at TL....an excellent group of people, and some great traders to boot. Thanks for the opportunity.

 

I will still be around the forums, and available if anyone has questions or comments - feel free to post here, or send a PM.

 

Thanks for following guys, and I wish you all the very best in your trading!

 

M

 

thanks maelstrom for this thread, its been great following it. i would love to see more application of your trading method and follow some of your trades, like the Reading Charts in Real Time thread. no sure if you can or not but its just a suggestion. thanks again.

 

-mslk

[IamJon 10]

  Maelstrom said:

Well, set out with a purpose of laying out my trading method to help those who might need a hand in finding profitability. Not sure if I did that or not, but hopefully, I have at least been able to spark an idea or two in a few traders out there.

 

The majority of how I trade is outlined in this thread. I think there may be more than a couple of points that I did not explain as clearly as I should, but as IamJon said, questions can always be put forth. But, no need to grow a thread further just for the sake of posting.

 

I want to say thank you once again to everyone who has visited and/or contributed to the thread. I am still amazed at the community here at TL....an excellent group of people, and some great traders to boot. Thanks for the opportunity.

 

I will still be around the forums, and available if anyone has questions or comments - feel free to post here, or send a PM.

 

Thanks for following guys, and I wish you all the very best in your trading!

 

M

 

M,

 

Thanks for sharing all that you have in this thread. I hope that if any specific things come to mind that you feel you should have elaborated on (such as S&R) please feel free to post in this thread. I don't think those of us that have been following this thread and are truly interested in trading this way would be more confused by any additional information and nuances. I also hope you will continue to post some of your trades in your other thread that was intended to be used as a log of your trades.

 

Thanks,

 

J.

[Maelstrom 10]

  mslk said:

thanks maelstrom for this thread, its been great following it. i would love to see more application of your trading method and follow some of your trades, like the Reading Charts in Real Time thread. no sure if you can or not but its just a suggestion. thanks again.

 

-mslk

 

Mslk,

 

Thanks for the kind words - I do appreciate it. I think I may continue to post some trades, if for nothing else to keep my self in check.

 

This week, thus far, has.....hmm, let me see.....what's the word I'm looking for.....oh yeah.....sucked. :rofl:

 

Actually, not too bad.....2 failed trades thus far, with the last one coming within 3 ticks of my take profit before reversing. This may very well be where discretion comes into play with any trading method, and I may sideline until the ass clowns in Washington get their collective shit together - well, as much as they can at least.

 

Thanks for the post....

 

M

[Maelstrom 10]

  IamJon said:

M,

 

Thanks for sharing all that you have in this thread. I hope that if any specific things come to mind that you feel you should have elaborated on (such as S&R) please feel free to post in this thread. I don't think those of us that have been following this thread and are truly interested in trading this way would be more confused by any additional information and nuances. I also hope you will continue to post some of your trades in your other thread that was intended to be used as a log of your trades.

 

Thanks,

 

J.

 

I will Jon.....I think the best way to elaborate or clarify on certain points will be to do so through live trades - application of ideas has a tendency to make concepts easier to grasp.

 

Thanks

M

[Phil-n-Texas 10]

thought i would post today's trade on 3200 tick chart as it was a textbook example of consolidation breakout.... sell the breakout, and reload on the retrace to the b/o TL which was confluent with 50% fib retracement of breakout swing... all aided by predictable (favorable) jobless claims and housing starts reports... notice momentum beginning to build around 10:00(EST) reads 9:00 on my chart... note that the b/o happened about 2/3 of the way into the triangle pattern which is best...

 

i like to lay and wait like a spider for these setups....

 

also, earlier in the thread there was some discussion about chart size... i'll just add that bigger charts can often produce bigger gains if you're on the right side of the trade... a lot of the time the smaller charts are just too noisy... i use to say it was like running 90mph with hair on fire...

 

for my personality, i prefer to wait for the best setup and make one good trade in the morning and call it a day.

 

happy trails...

 

[Phil-n-Texas 10]

here's the trade this a.m. on ES 3200 tick... i actually used the 1600 tick to time entry... 1/2 off then 1/2 of what's left and remaining is either going to hit target (1290ish) or stop out at 1284.75.

 

market be testing the 200MA again...

 

this time though has broken out of mid-term a-fork support and and below 150MA on the daily...

 

round-n-round she goes...

 

[Phil-n-Texas 10]

final target hit (1289.75) and out last 1/4 position... and can't believe they didn't stop run this below 1285 to my 1284.75 stop loss... missed it by a tick reversing right at 1285... even if it had taken out my final 1/4 position i had already banked a good profit because of scaling out.

 

[adam777 10]

  Phil-n-Texas said:

final target hit (1289.75) and out last 1/4 position... and can't believe they didn't stop run this below 1285 to my 1284.75 stop loss... missed it by a tick reversing right at 1285... even if it had taken out my final 1/4 position i had already banked a good profit because of scaling out.

 

 

This isn't Maelstrom's system but a completely different system which doesn't even use range bars. Why post it here?

[Maelstrom 10]

  adam777 said:

This isn't Maelstrom's system but a completely different system which doesn't even use range bars. Why post it here?

 

Adam,

 

Phil is perfectly ok in posting here..... at one point earlier on in the thread, I encouraged anyone out there to post their trading methods, ideas or questions if they thought it would help other traders. I do appreciate you watching out for the thread though, and not letting it get "hijacked"

 

And, I have been missing in action this week. After the first couple of days, I figured discretion was the better part of valor until the debt issue is resolved. Would have turned out to be ok this week, but once I told my girlfriend I wasn't trading this week, she practically kidnapped me lol.

 

M

[phantom 16]

And Phil's charts are oh so pretty!

 

 

Phantom

[IamJon 10]

  Phil-n-Texas said:

thought i would post today's trade on 3200 tick chart as it was a textbook example of consolidation breakout.... sell the breakout, and reload on the retrace to the b/o TL which was confluent with 50% fib retracement of breakout swing... all aided by predictable (favorable) jobless claims and housing starts reports... notice momentum beginning to build around 10:00(EST) reads 9:00 on my chart... note that the b/o happened about 2/3 of the way into the triangle pattern which is best...

 

i like to lay and wait like a spider for these setups....

 

also, earlier in the thread there was some discussion about chart size... i'll just add that bigger charts can often produce bigger gains if you're on the right side of the trade... a lot of the time the smaller charts are just too noisy... i use to say it was like running 90mph with hair on fire...

 

for my personality, i prefer to wait for the best setup and make one good trade in the morning and call it a day.

 

happy trails...

 

 

Phil,

 

Could you elaborate more on your entry and exit levels?

Which markets (instruments) are your bread and butter?

How do you decide on the chart time frame/# of ticks per bar?

 

If you would rather I PM you, let me know.

 

Thanks,

 

J.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

  Maelstrom said:

And, I have been missing in action this week. After the first couple of days, I figured discretion was the better part of valor until the debt issue is resolved.

 

Good decision! Unless you were planning on shorting everything Have fun with the GF

 

MMS