Optiontimer's Project

[livernik 10]

I read everything about Opt -method.

It is a very good work and has been supported in fine and comprehensive way by Opt.

I examined it in other charts , more exotic let's say and it works.

I appreciated it of course as I have adequate experience to do so .For less experienced traders , as Opt suggests also, they have to do much paper trading before a real move.

THANKS Opt. for the excellent job.

[NeoTrader 10]

It is looking like the GBPUSD is looking to resume its uptrend. Something I'm keeping my eye on. However, it is looking like some stiff resistance at the 1.6700 ish level where price was rejected pretty hard at the beginning of may. Also there is some intermediate resistance at 1.6500 ish.

 

This brings me to a question. I dont want to cloud things up with the system, but I want to know OT's opinion on situations like this. Do you take signals that will run you smack into nearby strong resistance/support? Do you take the trade anyway and just put on a smaller position size?

 

 

Disclaimer: My analysis of the mentioned resistance levels may be completely off as I am by no means an experienced operator, so please feel free to mock and or correct me. :haha:

[optiontimer 10]

I buy dips in uptrends and sell rallies in downtrends. I assume the major trend will continue until it doesn't.

 

If this were day trading, my answer would have been different.

 

-OT

[NeoTrader 10]

Maybe its the old daytrader in me then. Makes me somewhat squeamish to take trades in the face of resistance/support.

 

I suppose this is akin to a psychological hang-up. I expect reactions at those levels but perhaps fear something violent that will wipe out standing profits, maybe make it hard to stick with the position.

 

Part of my process in backing up to taking trend trades is to stop white-knuckling it.

 

[optiontimer 10]

Kroll tells a story about a trader who called him one day asking what he thought about the head and shoulders top in Cotton. Cotton was in a strong uptrend, without a hint of slowing down, and Kroll was confused by the question. Turns out the trader was aking him about a "head and shoulders top" visible on a 5 minute chart. A mere consolidation, Krol told him, and right he was, as Cotton closed at all time highs by the end of that session.

 

Just goes to show the perils of mixing time frames.

 

-OT

[PWP 10]

Position Update:

 

Eur/Cad Stopped out -200 pips - 2nd loss - total loss -340 - I'll leave Eur/Cad alone until whipsaw rules are met

Eur/Chf still on stop at BE

Gbp/Chf closed out for +780 pips

New Entry orders:

Long Aud/Usd 1.0790 Stop 1.0670

Short Usd/Cad .9560 Stop .9660

 

I unit on both as still small account but will take 2 units increments once able. Gbp/Aud is also a short setup but risk too large for my tastes. Although if I had a larger account I'd probably take it - The couple of times I've passed due to large risk those trades turned out to be huge winners...

 

I'm not sure my posting these trades is helping anyone - So unless otherwise requested this will be my last position update. Thanks everyone - OT if you have any further direction please advise. Thanks

[optiontimer 10]

I'm not sure my posting these trades is helping anyone - So unless otherwise requested this will be my last position update. Thanks everyone - OT if you have any further direction please advise. Thanks

 

If I may "otherwise request," I would greatly appreciate it if you would continue, if you yourself have no objections to doing so. Not forever, but perhaps you could continue through the rest of this month. I can tell you from my PM box, which, I see a warning flashing to me that it is 92% full, that your example has helped a number of others wade into the deep end of the pool. I am hoping to persuade at least a few of them to follow your example by posting here in the thread.

 

As far as further direction, I will answer any questions to which I feel I have a worthy answer. I am very pleased with how this thread has worked out. I think I have given enough here for anyone who happens by this thread and who does the reading and studying to set himself or herself on the right path. The difficult part, as always, is for the individual trader to work on the emotional control, the discipline, and the patience required to succeed. For that, I can do little more than offer pep talks. I'm willing to do that as well, if that is one someone asks for.

 

So, PWP, if you feel this thread and what I have shared has helped you, then I am going to ask you, for the month of August, to help me to help others. I believe the phrase is known as "paying it forward." And I don't want anything more than to see a few others do as well as you have been able to do.

 

Thank you kindly for sharing as much as you have. No matter what you decide, it has been a pleasure for me to have witnessed that part of your efforts that you have shared here with us.

 

Sincerely,

 

optiontimer

[hotch1 10]

New Entry orders:

Long Aud/Usd 1.0790 Stop 1.0670

Short Usd/Cad .9560 Stop .9660

 

 

Hi PWP, just a query about your entry orders. They do not appear to have met all the rules (StochRSI has not turned). Is this just your interpretation?

 

Regards,

 

hotch

[optiontimer 10]

I also would like to entreat mrcsidney, Ingot, russellhq, peterbee77, neotrader, iwshares, and anyone else who is following along and either paper or real trading this system to share their results as well.

 

This does not require daily posting. Post your orders when they develop, and your fills, and any changes to your position. For example, in some cases due to risk factors, and in a few other cases due to the size I am already carrying in other accounts, e.g. wheat, I have thus far only taken one trade, long 10 year notes, which I am still long with the initial stop loss in place. Unless anything changes, I will simply update the position as of the weekly setle on Friday. So, this whole system requires very little time. If you are trying to apply it, take a couple of extra minutes and share your efforts here with us.

 

I know from posts here and from PM's that a number of you have made some decent profits using the information in this thread. Remember, it all started becasue someone else gave some time and shared some hard won experience to help you. Pay it forward, friends, pay it forward. "Give, and it will be given to you. A good measure, pressed down, shaken together and running over, will be poured into your lap. For with the measure you use, it will be measured to you."

 

Thank You,

 

optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

Hi PWP, just a query about your entry orders. They do not appear to have met all the rules (StochRSI has not turned). Is this just your interpretation?

 

Regards,

 

hotch

 

PWP selected Williams%R as his short term oscillatoer, and as of today, this indicator has signalled that momentum has turned (Williams %R is plotted opposite of the manner in which we plot Stochastics and stochRSI, i.e. OB is graphed down, OS is graphed up).

 

What matters is not the particular oscillator you select - what matters is that you use it consistently.

 

 

 

-OT

[hotch1 10]

Thanks OT. That makes sense.

[peterbee77 10]

I am intrigued by the ability to scan charts for criterion like that. Peterbee, or anyone else for that matter, can you tell me what software you are using?

 

Hi Neo,

 

I must admit I'm a fan of my charting software, which I've been using for 7 years now - I'm still learning new features it has. It's sold by a little Aussie company called BullCharts, which suits me because I trade Aussie stocks. Their website is " http://www.bullcharts.com.au " and has a bit of info about it.

 

Even though it's primarily designed for Aussie stocks, BullCharts will also accept other data in Metastock format, which is an industry standard data format I believe. So you might be able to run your Ninja daily data feed through it (I'm assuming you live in the US of A). I'm not sure how real-time data would work - it works fine with Aussie data.

 

Briefly BullCharts comes with about >250 inbuilt indicators (including Stochastic RSI), each of which can be tweaked to your own preferred parameters. But what I like most is you can code your own indicators, or variations of other's indicators - do-able by someone like me, who is not an IT professional.

 

Their stock scanning is menu-driven so you can easily construct a scan that applies any of their indicators to a number of stock fields (open, low,close, high, volume, value-traded, no. of trades, median price, etc), or you can also include scan criteria based on pieces of your own-coded script. One feature I've found useful is that some scanning criteria can be set to "must be met" while others are set to "optional" and you assign a weighting to each of them, so you end up with a list of stocks ranked according to their total scores on your weighted optional criteria.

 

After looking at their site you might want to talk to the head guy, Brendon, as to whether it might be feasible to adapt it to your needs. Note their phone no is local Australian, so you'll need to delete the leading zero, and add your international access code (is it "00" in USA?) and Australia's international dial-code ("61") to the phone number on the website (so "(02) 98.." becomes "00 61 2 98..". And bear in mind we're 14 hours ahead of USA Daylight Saving time at the moment, so 8:00pm Thursday USA East coast Daylight Saving Time translates to 10:00am Friday Sydney time, for example.

 

Good luck,

 

Peter

[optiontimer 10]

Beanoil

 

[optiontimer 10]

Cotton

 

[PWP 10]

Thanks OT for the feedback - I just didn't want to waste thread space if it wasn't useful. I will absolutely continue with position updates as necessary. Also - Thanks for responding to hotch1 - Sorry for the delay.

[PWP 10]

PWP selected Williams%R as his short term oscillatoer, and as of today, this indicator has signalled that momentum has turned (Williams %R is plotted opposite of the manner in which we plot Stochastics and stochRSI, i.e. OB is graphed down, OS is graphed up).

 

What matters is not the particular oscillator you select - what matters is that you use it consistently.

-OT

My chart looks a little different but same idea - it is Williams%R set at 8. The Rectangles highlight yesterdays' bar - here's Aud/Usd:

[Avarice 10]

I have just been filled Soybean Oil @ 56.90 with a stop at 58.63.

 

I have another short awaiting entry in Oats at 349 and I plan to go long CAD as soon as it hits 1.0429.

 

This is a new system for me, so order entry is currently accompanied by all sorts of second guessing and doubts about the system's viability. Don't worry, no need for pep talk -- at least not yet -- I know these feelings will pass a couple of weeks in. But still it's funny how different things become once you start to put real money on the line.

 

A

[cees 10]

Although risk would probably be too high coffee has a signalbar

 

Sell 240 Stop, when filled Stoploss 250 .

[Ingot54 13]

I have just been filled Soybean Oil @ 56.90 with a stop at 58.63.

 

 

This is a new system for me, so order entry is currently accompanied by all sorts of second guessing and doubts about the system's viability.

Hi Avarice I am still coming to terms with this system myself, though others seem to have a pretty good grasp already.

 

There are two things about your entry:

 

1) Should you be waiting until the previous low of 56.60 has been broken?

2) Did you enter the trade a day early?

 

Please see my questions as sincere.

 

I thought the first point (1) needed to be fulfilled, as I had taken this technical entry myself in some trades in other instruments, and was told it was premature.

 

Secondly, I am still trying to sort out the difference between the trigger/alert bar, and the entry bar. From my point (2) I though the bar needed to close with the 7sRSI ticking down, and you then take the NEXT bar, the following day, providing price has passed the previous low.

 

Maybe it is my head - foggy from too many night shifts

 

I am trying to trade this method with some kind of consistency, but somehow I seem to be managing to complicate it without trying. :crap:

 

Have a look at the chart I post here, and let me know what you think. I am trying to be objective so please don't see this as criticism by any means, mate. I know how that can hurt when you are already doing your best.

[Ingot54 13]

Although risk would probably be too high coffee has a signalbar

 

Sell 240 Stop, when filled Stoploss 250 .

Thank you Cees for posting your chart.

 

My question also relates to timing of entry, and you can see where my confusion is coming from on the chart attached.

 

I feel once I get these issues sorted out in my feeble brain, I might attempt a live trade. I applaud your willingness to expose your thoughts to the forum mate - thank you. Your posting is really helping me come to terms with these things.

[cees 10]

Thank you Cees for posting your chart.

 

My question also relates to timing of entry, and you can see where my confusion is coming from on the chart attached.

 

I feel once I get these issues sorted out in my feeble brain, I might attempt a live trade. I applaud your willingness to expose your thoughts to the forum mate - thank you. Your posting is really helping me come to terms with these things.

 

Thanks Ingot.

 

The price I use is the pittrading price . So the last bar shows price from yesterday august 3.

The momentum shift(StoRsi turns down from 100 % level) is the signal bar. Now the market should pull me in the trade ,meaning the price should surpass the low of the signal bar minus some ticks ( 0.1 of the averagetruerange of last 10bars or someting you prefer), thats the entrylevel.

Pittrading in coffee starts at 9.15 NY time , so we wait till then , but we can enter a stoporder(only RTH trading) at a level of about 240.

 

Hope everything is clear and hopefully i didnot make any mistakes here.

[Ingot54 13]

Thanks Ingot.

 

The price I use is the pittrading price . So the last bar shows price from yesterday august 3.

The momentum shift(StoRsi turns down from 100 % level) is the signal bar. Now the market should pull me in the trade ,meaning the price should surpass the low of the signal bar minus some ticks ( 0.1 of the averagetruerange of last 10bars or something you prefer), thats the entry level.

Pittrading in coffee starts at 9.15 NY time , so we wait till then , but we can enter a stop order(only RTH trading) at a level of about 240.

 

Hope everything is clear and hopefully i did not make any mistakes here.

Thanks Cees

 

No - I am certain you haven't made an error.

Initially when I was paper trading this method, I was making heaps of pips.

I made 2400 the fist 10 days, and then last week I closed with nearly 830 pips profit, including a couple of losses.

This week I have not been able to find one single trade, after revising my interpretation of the rules.

 

It seems in the early part, I was taking the trades the day the 7sRSI closed in its FIRST "ticked-down" position. But I was shown that I was actually getting in too soon, because:

a) I was entering BEFORE the previous high/low was surpassed (and this I understand was correct)

and

b) I entered at the open of the new bar, instead of waiting until the END of that new bar.

 

I am still confused.

I think now that I was just lucky to have actually made pips, in trades that were not really valid at all.

 

Below are 2 charts of the USDJPY from 9 hours ago - the EOD bar.

 

In chart #1 I show what the chart looked like immediately before the new bar opened. I was not considering an entry, because:

1) The 7sRSI was just on it's "alert" down-tick.

and

2) Previous low had not been passed.

 

I actually had this pair on a watch-list for tomorrow, and turned on my charts tonight to see that the pair has gone troppo!

 

It makes me think I have either struck an aberration (you can't win them all) and the setup was very nearly complete, except for price beating the previous low,

or I was right to ignore the pair until tomorrows close, to see what it looked like then.

 

This is driving me crazy. I know I am complicating the simple strategy somewhere, but can't figure out where just yet.

 

It will be a simple thing once I "get it."

I will re-read the rules and see if I can get something into my extremely thick mind.

 

I am not too anxious about this - I know that it is just a matter of getting the true picture, and this can be easily sorted in a moment, once I understand correctly. I am really pleased to have found such a great strategy, thanks to Optiontimer's sharing with us. It does take quite a lot of time and commitment to post what he does, and I am very grateful for that.

[cees 10]

Thanks Cees

 

No - I am certain you haven't made an error.

Initially when I was paper trading this method, I was making heaps of pips.

I made 2400 the fist 10 days, and then last week I closed with nearly 830 pips profit, including a couple of losses.

This week I have not been able to find one single trade, after revising my interpretation of the rules.

 

It seems in the early part, I was taking the trades the day the 7sRSI closed in its FIRST "ticked-down" position. But I was shown that I was actually getting in too soon, because:

a) I was entering BEFORE the previous high/low was surpassed (and this I understand was correct)

and

b) I entered at the open of the new bar, instead of waiting until the END of that new bar.

 

I am still confused.

I think now that I was just lucky to have actually made pips, in trades that were not really valid at all.

 

Below are 2 charts of the USDJPY from 9 hours ago - the EOD bar.

 

In chart #1 I show what the chart looked like immediately before the new bar opened. I was not considering an entry, because:

1) The 7sRSI was just on it's "alert" down-tick.

and

2) Previous low had not been passed.

 

I actually had this pair on a watch-list for tomorrow, and turned on my charts tonight to see that the pair has gone troppo!

 

It makes me think I have either struck an aberration (you can't win them all) and the setup was very nearly complete, except for price beating the previous low,

or I was right to ignore the pair until tomorrows close, to see what it looked like then.

 

This is driving me crazy. I know I am complicating the simple strategy somewhere, but can't figure out where just yet.

 

It will be a simple thing once I "get it."

I will re-read the rules and see if I can get something into my extremely thick mind.

 

I am not too anxious about this - I know that it is just a matter of getting the true picture, and this can be easily sorted in a moment, once I understand correctly. I am really pleased to have found such a great strategy, thanks to Optiontimer's sharing with us. It does take quite a lot of time and commitment to post what he does, and I am very grateful for that.

 

Ingot

the usdjpy did not cross or touch the 21 ema on the rebound , which is one of the rules.

So there is no signal bar and no entry according the rules.

But supposing it did touch the ema then your entry point would have been around 76,70

 

The sudden rise in usdjpy was caused by the intervention of the japanese central bank.

[optiontimer 10]

Ingot

the usdjpy did not cross or touch the 21 ema on the rebound , which is one of the rules.

So there is no signal bar and no entry according the rules...

 

Ingot, maybe you should have printed check sheets, one for long trades, and one for short trades. Then, simply plug in the requirements as posted in post #8, or re-write them as a question that requires a positive response, e.g. Has price rallied to the region of the 21/65 ema's or slightly above? If yes, then proceed to question #2:

 

Has stochRSI registered a 100 reading on a closing basis? If yes, proceed to #3:

 

Has stochRSI turned down and closed below 100 on a closing basis? If yes, then place a sell stop below that day's low, with a stop loss above the reaction high.

 

If you use the check sheets, then you would not have considered the USDJPY any further after question 1. You could also add a pre-question: If you are considering a short, is the 21 ema below the 65 ema, if yes, has price retraced at least to the 21 ema, if yes, has stochRSI closed on any day at 100, if yes, has the stochRSI closed below 100 on a subsequent day, if yes ... enter on a sell stop below the low of the first day on which stochRSI closed below 100.

 

-optiontimer

[russellhq 10]

I've attached my entry for today which makes my 3rd open position (it's been a quiet week)

 

I've annotated the chart with a number of points which illustrate my entry.

 

First, I looked for Price Action near the 21EMA. Confirmed.

Next, looked for the 7sRSI turning down from 1 to give signal to enter the next day. Confirmed

Next, I looked for the nearest significant high and measured the Risk, risk was acceptable.

Today, following yesterdays signal, I looked for price falling below yesterday's low. Confirmed.

 

Following all the confirmations above, I sold at 56.30