Optiontimer's Project

[optiontimer 10]

...According to the reading of post #8, entry is quite restrictive. If price needs to break the 21EMA, but misses that mark by 3 pips, then entry is denied...

EDIT: OptionTimer's post #95 clears up the rationale for requiring price to pull back to between the EMA's - 21 / 65.

 

Best wishes

 

Ingot

 

First I want to thank Ingot for putting himself "in the line of fire" by showing us his trade with his analysis. Each of us will no doubt enjoy successes and failures, and at times we will do everything correctly, and at others we will make inevitable mistakes - embrace it all, because for good or for ill, you're still alive!

 

I also want to thank Avarice, youri, and russellhq for the helpful and civil manner in which they responded to Ingot's posts, and Ingot for the gracious manner in which he received their constructive criticism - all of which is a rarity in the trading forum world of the world "wild" web.

 

Regarding the rational for requiring price, if not to break, at least lightly to "tickle" the 21/65 zone: It is good to keep this as mechanical as possible, but without allowing system dogma to cause us to throw common sense out the window. For example, suppose the EURUSD resumes its uptrend and breaks out above its May 1.4940 high. Then, after rallying a few cents above that level, price pulls back to with a fraction of a percent of that former high, perhaps even printing a 1.4940 pullback low. Let us further suppose that the stochRSI was oversold and pinned to "0", and that the 21 ema was at 1.3975 the day the EUR.USD retests "resistance now support." Now the EUR.USD rallies off that test of support, turning the stochRSI up, but with coming no closer than 25 pips of the 21/65 zone. Well, to me, common sense would say that that is an actionable buy signal.

 

In other words, we want, in most cases, to abide strictly and mechanically to our system, but retaining enough discretion to act upon objective and empirical facts the importance of which supercedes whatever the calculation of a moving average is on a particular day, such as price testing a clear and unambiguous support or resistance level. Let us not forego a good opportunity for the sake of 3 pips.

 

Now, with respect to Ingot's EUR.AUD trade, I would have liked to have seen price rally higher, toward the 1.3175 level, prior to taking a short position. Incidentallyu, the 21 EMA happened to be at 1.3271. Again, very often these ema's will catch up to significant S/R levels about the time price is reacting against the major trend to test those levels.

 

Also, as the GBP has been relatively weaker against the AUD, and as the GBP.AUD did fulfill all requirements of the system, I would have been inclined to take the GBP.AUD short, and left the EUR.AUD alone. Part of managing risk is going to be managing correlation risk. If three base currencies line up short against the same underlying, then do not feel you need to be short all three. It might be better either to short the weakest base, or to take a small, 1/3 position in each, and if the trend does kick in, keep and add to the most profitable and close the two least profitable.

 

Finally, a reminder always to focus primarily on the strategy: We are looking to position ourselves with the major trend and against the minor trend. Don't allow your focus on the system and its indicators to become so myopic that you lose sight of the strategy. As Kroll said repeatedly, having a good system is not enough - you must also have a sound strategy.

 

-optiontimer

[PWP 10]

Hi Peter,

 

Would you be able to update us on the status of your re-entry GBPCHF short?

 

Thank You,

 

optiontimer

 

HI OT,

 

Sorry for the delay. Yes - Here's the update. I exited with +200 pips and too early. One of your last posts got me thinking about my trade plan or lack there of. I now have a very specific trade plan and follow it without question. I've just finished reading Kroll's book and between that and your thread actually feel like I have control over my trading. I review my charts at 5pm EST - make my trade decisions and that's it. I've caught myself looking at trades and then doubting my trades but have stuck with the plan! It's liberating. Here is my plan. I would appreciate any comments, changes, ideas etc... (but not on my spelling):

 

- 21 & 65 EMA: if 21>65 only long if 21<65 only short positions

- Williams%R (8) hook creates entries

- Wait for price action to enter into 21-65 price territory Enter on hook Williams%R ob/os extreme

- Enter 1 tick below/above bar with stop above/below swing high/low

- Move stop to breakeven when +50 pips

- If stopped out re-establish entry order on next hook

- Take 1/2 off after 4:1 ratio achieved

- Trail stop above/below 21 EMA or 65 EMA Depending on Pair - Some follow 65 instead of the 21EMA

- Consider removing entire position is price action dictates possible top (Many Dojis) - prepare to re-enter if that happens

- Use Monthly charts to determine support/resistance zones

 

I had to establish a written stop and take profit plan for myself. Just recently I took a Gbp/Usd short and it was stopped out at BE. Which is exactly why I have that part of the plan - Gbp/Usd has since rallied. However I'm prepared to enter short again if triggered. Here are my current positions:

 

Eur/Gbp Long from .8800 Stop at .8700 (but will move to BE at +50)

Gbp/Aud Short from 1.5106 Stop at BE

 

Well That's it so far. Thanks again OT!

[SIUYA 11]

as always OT, a nice summary and often this point is overlooked....

 

"In other words, we want, in most cases, to abide strictly and mechanically to our system, but retaining enough discretion to act upon objective and empirical facts the importance of which supercedes whatever the calculation of a moving average is on a particular day, such as price testing a clear and unambiguous support or resistance level."

 

The system is often too binary, and given context applied with experience and common sense - as pointed out with the extra advice given about correlated trades, then often the system can be improved/finessed without actually having to do to much

This is usually only achieved after tracking a system for a while and then you know when to "break" the rules to achieve the same overall strategy objective without adding too much extra risk. The same can be said for those times the system says to take a trade, but experience tells you to be a little extra wary.

Ask yourself this - whats the difference between a 21day ma or a 20 d ma - a few pips maybe ??? Why use one and not the other??? To a computer this may mean everything, but to us when trying to capture 100s of pips the overall strategy is important.

 

(plus it is soooooo nice to see the thread working and happy happy joy joy )

[optiontimer 10]

HI OT,

 

Sorry for the delay. Yes - Here's the update. I exited with +200 pips and too early. One of your last posts got me thinking about my trade plan or lack there of. I now have a very specific trade plan and follow it without question. I've just finished reading Kroll's book and between that and your thread actually feel like I have control over my trading. I review my charts at 5pm EST - make my trade decisions and that's it. I've caught myself looking at trades and then doubting my trades but have stuck with the plan! It's liberating. Here is my plan. I would appreciate any comments, changes, ideas etc...

 

Awesome, Peter! I know from my PM box that you are not alone in experiencing the control and ease and calm that having a trading plan gives to one. I only wish more of those who have PM'd me their stories would share them here in the thread and not just with me, as I think others may be inspired by these stories. Let's not forget - this project is only a few short weeks old, and it seems to promise that it may make a real positive difference in the trading lives of at least a few.

 

How does that 200+ pip profit compare to what you had been accustomed to prior to using this approach?

 

Your plan looks like a sound one. I have three comments:

 

First, I am very pleased to see that you decided on your own to use a different indicator from that suggested by me. I certainly do not want to lock anyone into using a this or that indicator. As I have tried to emphasize - any indicator will do so long as its parameters are set to help us stick to our core strategy: We want to trade with the major trend, and against the minor trend. An 8 WIlliams %R should work nicely for you if you use it consistently.

 

Second, by "4 to 1 ratio," do you mean a reward 4 times your initial risk?

 

Third, I will withhold this comment for now. I hope that you continue to update us on your new plan and your implementation of it. If so, then my third comment may prove relevant, and I will share it with you. It may not prove relevant at all, in which case I would prefer to keep my mouth shut and let you do your thing.

 

Thank you for the update, and please keep participating with us!

 

-optiontimer

Edited July 21, 2011 by optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

... then often the system can be improved/finessed without actually having to do to much - This is usually only achieved after tracking a system for a while and then you know when to "break" the rules to achieve the same overall strategy objective without adding too much extra risk. The same can be said for those times the system says to take a trade, but experience tells you to be a little extra wary.

Ask yourself this - whats the difference between a 21day ma or a 20 d ma - a few pips maybe ??? Why use one and not the other??? To a computer this may mean everything, but to us when trying to capture 100s of pips the overall strategy is important.

 

(plus it is soooooo nice to see the thread working and happy happy joy joy )

Yes, indeed, it is very nice to see the thread working very well for a number of traders. I had hoped to help at least one individual in particular, but I felt that others could benefit from this as well.

 

I thank you, SIUYA, for your contributions as well - you have done an excellent job of translating your experience for us in a way that helps further the project without unduly complicating it.

 

Thank You,

 

optiontimer

[PWP 10]

How does that 200+ pip profit compare to what you had been accustomed to prior to using this approach?

 

Second, by "4 to 1 ratio," do you mean a reward 4 times your initial risk?

 

 

Thank you for the review! I appreciate the information that you've given. My prior trading had a tendency to be very successful for about 1 day and then I'd lose everything I gained and more on the following 3 or so days. Very frustrating and too emotionally, fear, & greed driven. The basic plan that you've helped us all develop is just that - A plan. And if it's followed you actually can objectively make trade decisions. Your plan is far superior - less trading, more sitting on ones hands... not screwing up the plan.

 

Yes - I did mean 4 times the initial risk on the trade. I've committed to doing that because I've learned that you need to take a profit at some point. I've had sooo many trades where I was up 130 pips only to see it evaporate within 1 day and often turn into a loss. The idea of 4:1 and taking 1/2 off is that it’s equal to taking off the entire lot at 2:1 Risk/reward ratio and then still having another whole free trade to hopefully continue to run. Also there's always the opportunity of pyramiding on the next pullback to the 21-65 area....

 

There is one dilemma that I have with my plan and it's that I have an aversion to loss. That's why I've put in the +50 pip stop loss being moved to BE. The idea was to make sure that I'm actually entering at the correct point. When I look back in history it seems that the entrance points that we're targeting either work - break lower - or don't really commit and tend to float for awhile before committing to the larger trend. That's the dilemma - if I get in too early than I feel lots of pain - by having the +50 pip BE plan than if it retraces I get taken out and can reenter at a better point... There is a lot of whipsaw in FX. However, I want the returns that Kroll spoke of in his book. So I may have to change that part of my plan at some point - still trying to figure the stop part of the plan out... Let me know if you have any ideas. At this point I'll stick with my plan.

 

Sorry for the long post...

 

Thanks again - Peter

[optiontimer 10]

I think I was a day early with my suggestion that Feeder Cattle were tradeable. I think yesterday was the signal day and today we should be looking to trade if the price goes higher than yesterdays high.

 

Would you agree?

 

Also, if the price doesn't make it today do we wait for the sRSI to fall back to 0 and start again waiting for the signal day? Or do we wait and see if the price breaks the signal day's high and take the trade?

 

Still getting up to speed, but I should be able to get a chart posted in the morning, and we'll see then what we have.

 

-optiontimer

[iwshares 10]

 

(This is off-topic I know) but I have always learned more by allowing errors to fully play themselves out, than by cutting them short and never knowing what might have happened. Consequently, I am looking to see what happens, because at some point, we are going to see some trend reversals, and unless I have an interest in the trade (albeit a demo situation) I would never follow the activity long enough to refer back to entry, and learn what may have been a warning sign along the way.

 

I hope that makes sense.

 

Yes Ingot it makes a lot of sense, case in point in testing a new strategy today I realised half way to stop loss I'd drawn a trend line wrong but let the trade play anyway - which meant I then also noticed I'd made a premature entry, something I'd not have noticed had I cut if off straight away!

 

The age old phrase "You learn more from mistakes than successes" seems especially true in trading

[russellhq 10]

I had a quick flick through the charts, looks like Crude Oil could be signalling today for entry tomorrow.

[optiontimer 10]

I had a quick flick through the charts, looks like Crude Oil could be signalling today for entry tomorrow.

 

Patience. No signals for anything until EOD - lots of hours to go before a decision can or should be made. Go play some golf - Or get back to work!

 

-optiontimer

[PWP 10]

A quick trade update:

 

Gbp/Aud - Stopped out with +1 pip :doh:

Eur/Gbp - Stop still at .8700

 

So my Gbp/Usd was stopped out BE and probably for good reason, but my Gbp/Aud trade was also stopped out but quickly continued the trend. Maybe I should wait longer before moving to BE. Any suggestions? Ultimately I would have lost 200 pips on Gbp/Usd but may gain a lot more on Gbp/Aud. At this point I'm sticking to my plan but any ideas are greatly appreciated.

 

Regards,

 

-Peter

[optiontimer 10]

A quick trade update:

 

Gbp/Aud - Stopped out with +1 pip :doh:

Eur/Gbp - Stop still at .8700

 

So my Gbp/Usd was stopped out BE and probably for good reason, but my Gbp/Aud trade was also stopped out but quickly continued the trend. Maybe I should wait longer before moving to BE. Any suggestions? Ultimately I would have lost 200 pips on Gbp/Usd but may gain a lot more on Gbp/Aud. At this point I'm sticking to my plan but any ideas are greatly appreciated.

 

Regards,

 

-Peter

 

Hi Peter,

 

As far as the GBP.AUD, don't yuou feel that you should allow for the possibility that price will come back to retest the area of your entry?

 

The problem with the GBP.USD result is that it will now reinforce in your mind that moving your stop quickly to break even is the right thing to do.

 

If you are trading forex cash, then the number of pips in your stop loss should be irrelevant. You should be able to adjust the size of your position to fit your risk parameter.

 

For example, if your max risk/trade is $200, then on that trade, your position size would be $10,000, but on another trade, where the risk is only 50 pips, then your position size would be $40,000.

 

You must set your risk so that any one trade does not matter, and so that you can withstand a series of losses - ten, twelve, fourteen in a row, and still have sufficient margin available to stay in the game, both financially and mentally.

 

If the risk is too great to take the trade, don't take the trade.

 

Be faithful to your strategy, follow your system, and control your risk through proper money management, not through choking the life out of your system and strategy.

 

By the way, how did you arrive at the 200 pip figure for the GBP.USD trade? I'm showing about a 100 pip risk, and even if you are using the .1ATR10 on both sides of the trade, it looks like 128 pips would have been a good estimayte of the risk, wouldn't it?

 

-optiontimer

[russellhq 10]

As we're discussing risk, stop loss and break even points, I'd like to ask your thoughts about "break even".

 

Previously OT mentioned the strike rate for the system taking long term positions was 33%. Therefore, since 2 occasions out of 3 we will be stopped out at our maximum risk level I would propose the contract margin is not our break even point but 2 times our maximum risk for that trade is. i.e. in the long run our winning trades have to cover our losing trades and in this set-up that's twice our risk plus commissions. Thoughts?

[PWP 10]

Hi OT,

 

Yes I agree. My trade plan was trying to be too controling over the trade. I've decided to change my plan as follows: Initial stop beyond swing high/low - trail stop somewhere between the 21 & 65EMA's - If stopped out can always reenter as signaled - also if a new signal is created before stopping out - I can pyramid in and move all stops to that new swing high/low - RIsk will be set at 1-2% of account balance.

 

Gbd/Usd stop was 125 pips - I was just estimating - sorry - will be more precise with my posts.

 

Question: There are many setups between all of the different instruments - Isn't it best to take every setup?

 

Irregardless of stop size - we should be able to manage the risk with trade size - at least in the FX cash market as you said... I've passed on a couple of setups, due to larger stops, that are all positive at this point - but in retrospect I should have taken those trades as well. The only reason to not take some trades is that some currency pairs are strongly Coorelated and should be counted as 1 trade for risk measurement. For instance Short Eur/Nzd & Short Eur/Aud - Clearly both are short Euro and both are long Commodity pairs... Both trades stops should be added together and then traded appropriatly for ones risk limits.

 

FYI - Looks like tonight may be a good night for setups in the Euro & Swiss Franc pairs...

 

Thanks again OT!

[optiontimer 10]

As we're discussing risk, stop loss and break even points, I'd like to ask your thoughts about "break even".

 

Previously OT mentioned the strike rate for the system taking long term positions was 33%. Therefore, since 2 occasions out of 3 we will be stopped out at our maximum risk level I would propose the contract margin is not our break even point but 2 times our maximum risk for that trade is. i.e. in the long run our winning trades have to cover our losing trades and in this set-up that's twice our risk plus commissions. Thoughts?

 

I do not know that the contract margin becoming a beak even point is mentioned in the thread. I know that Kroll advocated a max stop loss = to 45% of the contract margin, so maybe it is coming from Kroll.

 

You are not, I suppose, trading to breakeven. This system, trading with the long term trend by entering positions on reactions against that trend should do far better than a 2:1 on many of the winning trades. I am not a backtester. I am not a proficient coder. But I have eyes to see, and I have twenty+ years of trading (not all profitable, mind you) to back me up when I say that you should see a number of 400-800 point wins on 100 point risks.

 

Manage your risk with your stop loss, and then let the market take care of everything else. It will tell you when to get out. But, you must make sure it is the market you are listening to and not your nerves.

 

And each trade stands alone.

 

-optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

RIsk will be set at 1-2% of account balance.

 

Set it so that you can remain cool when taking heat. If you can keep every trade to a 1% bet, no trade should matter much at all to you.

 

-optiontimer

[Ingot54 13]

Manage your risk with your stop loss, and then let the market take care of everything else. It will tell you when to get out. But, you must make sure it is the market you are listening to and not your nerves.

 

And each trade stands alone.

 

-optiontimer

Hi Optiontimer

 

After a mixed week, I am coming around to the discipline of following the strategy more closely. I was fortunate to be watching in time to close my EURAUD position before it ran to loss (after the EURO news on Greece).There is more to be gained through simply following a simple strategy, than breaking ranks and second-guessing entries.

 

You win some and you lose some, but at the end of the day, why change a strategy that works, at the cost of stressing over the "correctness" of an impatient entry. What the exercise of the past couple of weeks has taught me is to simply have confidence in the strategy. That is priceless.

 

I am setting up a new a/c this week to exactly mirror the a/c size I will be using, and with the contract size I will be trading. This is in preparation for my live trading beginning in a couple of weeks.

 

I notice many of the Currency pairs are pulling back nicely towards / touching / through the 21EMA at the end of this week. It could be that we might see entries in a few of these. In particular I noticed these:

 

EURAUD

EURCHF

EURJPY

GBPAUD

GBPCHF

GBPJPY

CHFJPY

 

There may well be others. But these pairs are on my watch-list at the moment.

 

Thanks for your gentle guidance on the thread - appreciated.

 

Best wishes

 

Ingot

[rebyte2 10]

Hi Ingot....

 

Out of that list of yours, EA, EJ, GJ and UCHF has not, on my daily charts, ventured into the EMAs territory.

 

The others have definately passed the above first stage.but awaiting the SR to give the signal.

 

Still short GA with some 66 pips infront.

 

cheers.

[russellhq 10]

Looks like the 10-Year T-Note will be tradeable today (depending on price action) given Fridays signal.

 

And if i've calculated it right, the risk (Fridays Low minus 0.1ATR10) should be within the comfort zone too.

[Ingot54 13]

Hi Ingot....

 

Out of that list of yours, EA, EJ, GJ and UCHF has not, on my daily charts, ventured into the EMAs territory.

 

The others have definately passed the above first stage.but awaiting the SR to give the signal.

 

Still short GA with some 66 pips infront.

 

cheers.

Hi Rebyte - and I forgot earlier - but a belated welcome to the forum.

 

Yes, you are correct. But I didn't mean that these had already triggered - just to be on high alert because these are the closest pairs to possible pullback conditions. Of course nothing stops them from trending another 800 pips ... but that is less probable than a reversal ... we await!

 

I'd like to draw your attention to this post from Optiontimer (to my great relief I can tell you) See post #104 ... and I quote:

 

Regarding the rationale for requiring price, if not to break, at least lightly to "tickle" the 21/65 zone: It is good to keep this as mechanical as possible, but without allowing system dogma to cause us to throw common sense out the window.

 

For example, suppose the EURUSD resumes its uptrend and breaks out above its May 1.4940 high. Then, after rallying a few cents above that level, price pulls back to within a fraction of a percent of that former high, perhaps even printing a 1.4940 pullback low. Let us further suppose that the stochRSI was oversold and pinned to "0", and that the 21 ema was at 1.3975 the day the EUR.USD retests "resistance now support."

 

Now the EUR.USD rallies off that test of support, turning the stochRSI up, but with coming no closer than 25 pips of the 21/65 zone. Well, to me, common sense would say that that is an actionable buy signal.

 

In other words, we want, in most cases, to abide strictly and mechanically to our system, but retaining enough discretion to act upon objective and empirical facts the importance of which supercedes whatever the calculation of a moving average is on a particular day, such as price testing a clear and unambiguous support or resistance level. Let us not forego a good opportunity for the sake of 3 pips.

Now, with respect to Ingot's EUR.AUD trade, I would have liked to have seen price rally higher, toward the 1.3175 level, prior to taking a short position. Incidentally, the 21 EMA happened to be at 1.3271. Again, very often these ema's will catch up to significant S/R levels about the time price is reacting against the major trend to test those levels.

 

Also, as the GBP has been relatively weaker against the AUD, and as the GBP.AUD did fulfill all requirements of the system, I would have been inclined to take the GBP.AUD short, and left the EUR.AUD alone.

 

Part of managing risk is going to be managing correlation risk. If three base currencies line up short against the same underlying, then do not feel you need to be short all three. It might be better either to short the weakest base, or to take a small, 1/3 position in each, and if the trend does kick in, keep and add to the most profitable and close the two least profitable.

 

Finally, a reminder always to focus primarily on the strategy: We are looking to position ourselves with the major trend and against the minor trend. Don't allow your focus on the system and its indicators to become so myopic that you lose sight of the strategy. As Kroll said repeatedly, having a good system is not enough - you must also have a sound strategy.

 

-optiontimer

Now I know you will take the emphasised and underlined bits in good spirit, Rebyte, because I highlighted those bits with the utmost respect for your comments.

 

Part of my reply is to remind new readers of the thread, that consistency in operating the strategy is always tempered with common sense, and rational and disciplined focus on the rules. And part of my response is to allow traders some flexibility in their own decision-making process, so that they "own" this strategy for themselves.

 

I hope Optiontimer doesn't take me to task too hard for saying that, but I am not meaning, by any stretch, that we should rewrite the strategy to suit our own whims. The rules are clear, but we have uncovered some grey areas, and Optiontimer has helped us to find a way through these, by pointing out the real issue - trading against the minor trend, and in line with the major trend.

 

There are fairly strict guidelines to adhere to, to accomplish that condition, but there are also opportunities for bold traders and more conservative traders, to put their brand on the way they trade the strategy.

 

My way, up until the closing of the markets last week, was to enter with a very tight stop (30 to 40 pips) as soon as the candle opened with a tick up/down from the 100 / 0 levels respectively. That was the "bold trader", who was prepared to risk 40 pips or so to see if an earlier entry was viable. That was, by the way, also risky, and at least 24 hours before most of the signals were confirmed, as posted earlier.

 

The next day, if the trade was proven to be "right" then the stop could be widened to .1ATR10 and proceed as per rule-book. But I got "trembly-knee syndrome" from that, and decided to trade by the book going forward - at least a lot more than I have up until now. It is a process of finding what works for me, while at the same time not violating the intent of the strategy.

 

I am pleased you are contributing, Rebyte, because I find that people like yourself are very observant and alert enough to spot inconsistencies, and therefore provide stability for folks like myself, who tend to see things in concrete terms one day, and abstract the next.

 

Thanks for your post - I hope to to see you continue to make 10 times the pips you have so far ... this week!

 

Kind regards

 

Ingot

 

PS: How DO you people write short and to-the-point posts?

[Ingot54 13]

Looks like the 10-Year T-Note will be tradeable today (depending on price action) given Fridays signal.

 

And if i've calculated it right, the risk (Fridays Low minus 0.1ATR10) should be within the comfort zone too.

Hi Russell

 

How are you finding Barcharts for your charting?

 

I have registered with Barcharts, but am not currently using them, because I haven't ventured into other futures, outside of Forex.

 

Are you confident of the signals?

Are the signals in line with, or consistent with Optiontimer's charts?

 

If so, then I may broaden the "swing of my scythe" to take in a few of the better tradeable commodities.

 

Kind regards

 

Ingot

[russellhq 10]

I find barcharts to be quite a good set-up for quickly reviewing a lot of charts. For instance, I've created a group of charts with all the futures OT had picked out at the start. I then set up a template to add 21EMA, 65EMA & 7sRSI indicators/oscillator. So now when I want to review the charts in the evening, I select the flipchart for the group, apply the template and then it's one mouse click from there on to get to the next chart with all the indicators displayed the way I find it easy to read. This lets me quickly review the charts in a matter of minutes.

 

The signals do seem to be broadly in line with what OT has posted in the past. Maybe OT can post a signalling end of day chart and I'll post the corresponding barchart version.

[optiontimer 10]

How DO you people write short and to-the-point posts?

 

Good question, Ingot!

[optiontimer 10]

The signals do seem to be broadly in line with what OT has posted in the past. Maybe OT can post a signalling end of day chart and I'll post the corresponding barchart version.

 

While my chart shows stochRSI rising higher than Barchart data, the key issue is that both catch the turn in momentum ... Using IB's data, I have a buy stop at 124'125 with a stop loss at 123'215, using a simple +/- one tick.

 

Thanks to russell for the heads up - with restoring everything to the new computer and a weekend spent primarily in the water, I have just now sat down to finally get my "trading cap" on after my tech enforced hiatus.

 

I cannot remember if I had mention this in a past post, so pardon me if it is redundant. I have decided to add a number of cash market forign exchange pairs to the trading mix. Since position size is easier to manage with these, and as the account I'm using is small, this should allow for more opportunities without having to assume unduly large risks.

 

GBP.CHF looks to be a good short opportunity based upon our little strategy and its accompanying system - it was very good to me during the traderslaboratory OANDA forex trading contest. Perhaps it will remain nice to me with real cash as well - but no matter, "have stop loss, will trade," as I once read somewhere, probably here at traderslaboratory.

 

Any updates from out there from anyone else following along? What are you trading? Doesn't matter whether it is demo dollars or real dollars - I'm just curious to see how people are doing with the information from this thread.

 

Thank You,

 

optiontimer

[rebyte2 10]

OT....

 

I also have GCHF on watch but im abit reluctant to press the go button as im feeling some bad vibes coming out of the US if Obama does not get his ceiling limit raised by next week.

 

If this is the case then the USD will probably be sold off, making all USD Xs gain in strength.

 

I know, only trade the charts but this is bigger than any charts im looking at.

 

My view is that the currencies will go in to choppy waters.... IMHO.