Optiontimer's Project

[yodusolu 10]

I have now had three people tell me that stochasticRSI is either not available in their charting software, or that using a 7 period stochRSI the settings/data are different enough that they are unable to replicate my charts. This is not acceptable to me, as it undermines what I am trying to accomplish - a simple, easy to follow system accessible to all. By "easy," I am referring to the mechanics, of course. The hard part, as always, will be having the discipline to trade it consistently.

 

The stochasticRSI has the virtue of being unambiguous in its overbought (100) and oversold (0) readings. Any other will probably have to have an ob/os threshold. I will work on a suitable alternate and will make a decision this weekend.

 

Thank You,

 

optiontimer

 

Optimer

 

Great Job, you are doing here.

 

I use a 14,3,5 Stochastics standard setting to find the ob/os conditions. Is there any reason, why you do not favour the standard stochastics, with an 80/20 ob/os levels?

 

Just a thought.

 

Thanks

[optiontimer 10]

I use a 14,3,5 Stochastics standard setting to find the ob/os conditions. Is there any reason, why you do not favour the standard stochastics, with an 80/20 ob/os levels?

 

yodusolu,

 

Thank you for your suggestion. I have been considering using stochastics, though I would adjust the parameters differently than you. Here's why:

 

I have a very specific criteria in mind with respect to visual clarity of the indicator.

 

1) I want ob/os to be unambiguous.

 

2) I want the shift in momentum back in favor of the major trend to unambiguous

 

3) I want the indicator to be both sensitive enough to pick up on short 2-5 day pullbacks, but discriminating enough to get us through longer, 6-30 day consolidations, with a minimum of whipsaws.

 

A short term momentum indicator comes closer to what I am looking for here. For example, your stochastics, if set to a shorter term period, perhaps 5-8, and with the %D set to 1, would probably fit my criteria (it may not fit yours, and if you have something that works for you, that is great). I am putting together something that I believe is visually compelling, clear, and simple to help people who have not yet found something that works for them. In order for this to work as I hope for it to work, it needs to be easy to see, even for the least experienced "chart watcher."

 

Thank you again for your suggestion. As you can see from Trendup_'s post, I now have five people who have said that they are having difficulties with the stochasticRSI settings. I am working, as time permits, on selecting a replacement oscillator for this project, and I may yet choose a standard stochastic, albeit, for the reasons outlined above, it will be with parameters of my own choosing, rather than the standard "out of the box" settings.

 

-optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

How much of a penetration through the EMAs will you allow and still take the signal?

 

Concerning a new signal, you posted we would take it:

 

"if price has retraced back to a level between the EMA's or even slightly below"

 

For a long signal. for example, we will not take a signal that occurs with a close below the 65 EMA. If price closes then closes above the 65 EMA, or if price consolidates in a tight, narrow range at or just below the 65 EMA over a period of 2 or more days, we would buy on a return above the 65 EMA.

 

Looking at the current S&P chart, the 21 is below the 65 ema, but how do we quantify 'slightly below/above'. After the necessary downturn in the Stoch RSI, would you be looking to short the S&P on a break of Friday's low?

 

"slightly above/below" refers to price relative to the EMA's, not the EMA's themselves.

 

Currenty this system is short biased the S&P based upon the relation of the EMA's to one another.

 

A short signal would require first that the stochRSI turn down on a closing basis from its current level of 100, and entry would be triggered if price makes a lower low than the low of the signal day. So no, a break of Friday's low would not be a short entry for this system.

 

Looking st the S&P daily chart, I would expect the next entry based on this system to be a long entry. The 21/65 down cross was shallow. The major trend, visually, appears still to be up. The price action from the May high to the June low appears to be more of a consolidation in an uptrend than a trend reversal to a major down trend. The 21 ema will probably cross up through the 65 ema within 1-3 trading days. That cross, if accompanied by an oversold reading on our oscillator, will likely get us long for the next leg up. As I mentioned in another recent post, I am expecting a long campaign in the YM (Dow Industrials e-mini $5 futures).

 

-optiontimer

[Ingot54 13]

yodusolu,

 

Thank you for your suggestion. I have been considering using stochastics, though I would adjust the parameters differently than you. Here's why:

 

I have a very specific criteria in mind with respect to visual clarity of the indicator.

 

1) I want ob/os to be unambiguous.

 

2) I want the shift in momentum back in favor of the major trend to unambiguous

 

3) I want the indicator to be both sensitive enough to pick up on short 2-5 day pullbacks, but discriminating enough to get us through longer, 6-30 day consolidations, with a minimum of whipsaws.

 

A short term momentum indicator comes closer to what I am looking for here. For example, your stochastics, if set to a shorter term period, perhaps 5-8, and with the %D set to 1, would probably fit my criteria (it may not fit yours, and if you have something that works for you, that is great). I am putting together something that I believe is visually compelling, clear, and simple to help people who have not yet found something that works for them. In order for this to work as I hope for it to work, it needs to be easy to see, even for the least experienced "chart watcher."

 

Thank you again for your suggestion. As you can see from Trendup_'s post, I now have five people who have said that they are having difficulties with the stochasticRSI settings. I am working, as time permits, on selecting a replacement oscillator for this project, and I may yet choose a standard stochastic, albeit, for the reasons outlined above, it will be with parameters of my own choosing, rather than the standard "out of the box" settings.

 

-optiontimer

I have been searching for similar indicators that match all (or most) brokers platforms, and I have come across these developed by Johne Ehlers:

 

TRADERS’ TIPS - October 2010

 

By clicking on the trading platform used (eg Tradestation or NinjaTrader) it will take you to a page illustrating the indicator as it appears on the platform.

 

Then, but adjusting the setting, we should be able to get a very unambiguous, and uniform indication for any platform. The code is also given on the page appropriate for the platform. If the trading platform you or anyone uses is not represented, I am sure Google search will find it.

 

In the chart below I have placed it beside the StochasticRSI for comparison. It is not perfect, but it does give unambiguous turning points - just not as definitive as the Stochastic RSI unfortunately. If you like this one and everyone is able to get it, then we should be able to get a chart match on all platforms, should Stochastic alone not provide the answer.

 

I can upload the indicator for MT4 if needed.

 

Just for consideration. Tweaking needed.

 

Ingot

[Ingot54 13]

OT -

 

You may have already considered this, but it occurred to me that Williams %R may be an indicator that fits the criteria.

 

It should also be universally available.

 

Ingot

[optiontimer 10]

I have been searching for similar indicators that match all (or most) brokers platforms, and I have come across these developed by Johne Ehlers:

 

I do not have Ehrlers Indicators and I do not know how they are calculated. What you have posted looks like it could work for you if applied it the same way I am using momentum, and if it works for you, I'd encourage you to use it. I will be choosing between stochastics and momentum/rate of change. Everyone should have access to these, and the calculations should not be as open to developer's interpretation as stochasticRSI apparently is.

 

You may have already considered this, but it occurred to me that Williams %R may be an indicator that fits the criteria. It should also be universally available.

 

I like Larry Williams (at least the old time Larry Williams) and his book How I Made a Million.... But Williams%R is a bit counter-intuitive with its inverted scale (even Williams turns it over to illustrate its use in his book). And %R is actually %K turned on its head, so for this project, if I choose to use the stochastics formula, I will stick with the George Lane version rather than the Larry Williams version.

 

Thank you,

 

optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

Here are some charts using an 8 period momentum indicator. If you do not have an indicator named "momentum," you should be able to substitute an 8 period Rate of Change. If we use this indicator, then our system would find oversold readings of <0 relevant only when the 21ema>65ema, and overbought readings>0 relevant only when the 21ema<65ema.

 

I have placed a red line on the "0" line.

 

Here is the perpetual chart of cotton which I had posted earlier in the thread, but this time 8Momentum replaces the 7stochRSI:

 

 

Here is the GBPCHF which also was posted earlier, again this time the 8 momentum replaces the 7 stochRSI:

 

 

And here is the EURUSD Futures, aka 6E, aka E6, with both the 8Momentum and the 7stochRSI. Blue circles are profitable entries, red circles are whipsaws, i.e. quick losses.

 

Momentum is somewhat more difficult to read quickly, but it does seem, at lest in this case, to smooth through minor momentum volatility and thus it has only two small quick losses to stochRSI's four quick whipsaws. I'm not at all sure that would always be the case. And we cannot let small losses bother us as there will be numerous small losses to be endured

 

 

I encourage everyone following along to check to see if they have access to the 8 momentum. Any comments would be appreciated, either here in the thread or through a PM. I am not 100% decided on this indicator as a replacement. For any interested in exploring the use of the stochastic formula, I am also considering an 8 period %K, with a 1 period smoothing and 1 %D

 

stochastic has the virtue of having a fixed 100 point scale. Momentum has the virtue of being a bit smoother through subtle shifts in the volatility of momentum

 

Of main importance is that both fit my criteria for visual clarity and ease of understanding. So, now I want to know if you all can get your charts to look like mine (and we can accept, of course, small variations depending upon session open/close/settlement times).

 

We'll talk more later,

 

-optiontimer

[rebyte2 10]

Hi OT and all......

 

This is proving to be an interesting and informative thread. Hope it continues for some time yet.

 

Looking at the GU daily with the required emas and the RS indy that Ingot has kindly supplied, i see that the PA under the emas and the RS turning south from its current position. Im also trialling a 150ema as an extra filter.

 

The price is currently retesting resistance at this level, suggesting a possible downside movement.

 

If this is a valid setup to the short side, where is the entry, or what do we wait for as a trigger?

 

cheers for the thread.

[rebyte2 10]

Hi OT......

 

Hold that reply(if you want) as i've re-read your earlier posts and it all comes home now.

 

cheers

[Avarice 10]

If I may be so bold I'd like to summarize what we got so far (this presupposes ofc that MOM8 is indeed the new star in the bar ):

 

IF :

(1) the 21 EMA is above the 65 EMA and

(2) the low of the current bar is below the 21 EMA and

(3) the high of the current bar is above the 65 EMA and

(4) the previous bar's MOM8 is lower than the current bar's MOM8 and

(5) the current bar's MOM8 is below 0

then and only then do we place a stop limit buy order at the current bar's high and let tomorrow's action take us into a long trade.

 

Likewise, IF:

(1) the 21 EMA is below the 65 EMA and

(2) the high of the current bar is above the 21 EMA and

(3) the low of the current bar is below the 65 EMA and

(4) the previous bar's MOM8 is higher than the current bar's MOM8 and

(5) the current bar's MOM8 is above 0

then and only then do we place a stop limit sell short order at the current bar's low and let tomorrow's action take us into a short trade.

 

Conditions (2) and (3) could use a bit of tweaking in order to take into account the notion of "slightly above / below" (see OT's post above) albeit I have to say that I like the "hard coded" version where you compare 2 numbers: one is either higher than the other or it is not. The notions of slightly, almost or near give room to human interpretation and we all know where that ends :doh:

 

Anyhow. What the above conditions do is to ensure that a trade is always taken in the direction of the longer-term trend and they time the entry in such a way that a position is only taken after a retracement or pullback has taken place. In essence, OT is betting on the continuation of an established trend and tries to get on board at a slightly better price than the sucker that jumped on the train when the retracement started. IMHO this is a very sound strategy and it should work out fine IF we (as in the participants in his next poll :missy:) pick a decent tactic for placing the stops (and, eventually, a profit target).

 

I know that this post is mostly a waste of bandwith since everything I've said can be found in OT's posts. Still I wanted to sum things up so that (a) I'd be sure that I understood correctly what we're all talking about here and (b) to emphasize the importance of understanding thoroughly what OT is trying to do here. The basic concept is what is important and not what type of oscillator we'll use to time our entries (and I think OT demonstrated this fact by showing how interchangeable stochRSI, Momentum and Williams %R all are.)

 

Alright enough babbling from me, laters all.

[optiontimer 10]

The symbols below are the symbols used by my database. You can find the key in post #6 of this thread: Optiontimer's Trading Portfolio

 

According to our system, the status of our markets is as follows:

 

Up Trending: (21 EMA> 65 EMA)

 

AD, CU, FC, GC, JY, OJ, SB, SF, TY, & US

 

Down Trending: BO/ZL, BP, C/ZC, CD, CL, CT, DX, ES, HG, HO, KC, LC, LH, NQ, O, RB, S/ZS, SI, SM/Z,, W/ZW, YM

 

Using our original 7stochasticRSI, we have to sell short signals - August Crude (sell stop 93.16) and September Coffee ( sell stop 257.50). Using an 8 period momentum, crude would be a short sale, but coffee would not.

 

Sell stops based on an entry threshold of .1ATR10: In other words, take the current trailing 10 day Average True Range, then take 10% of that, and subtract it from the prior day's low to determine youe sell stop. It is arbitrary, but it is as good as any other, and probably better than entering on a one tick basis.

 

In each case, the required risk exceeds what we have determined to be acceptable given starting equity. The opportunities will present themselves, we just need to be patient.

 

I am looking at several alternatives to the stochRSI still. We will continue to build our base through the coming days, and soon we shall have our updated system finalized.

 

Thank you,

 

-optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

Looking at the GU daily with the required emas and the RS indy that Ingot has kindly supplied, i see that the PA under the emas and the RS turning south from its current position. Im also trialling a 150ema as an extra filter. The price is currently retesting resistance at this level, suggesting a possible downside movement. If this is a valid setup to the short side, where is the entry, or what do we wait for as a trigger?

 

BP, aka GBPUSD, aka GU, is downtrending according to our system, but it is not signaling any action as yet.

 

You are free to use whatever indicators or system you wish in your own trading, but for the purpose of this thread, we will keep it to the indicators we have selected, without need for any additional "filtering."

 

For our purposes her, up-trending/down-trending is determined simply by the relation of the 21 EMA to the 65 EMA.

 

Entries are signaled only by the overbough/oversold readings of our momentum oscillator turning back in favor of the up/down trend. We are currently using the stochasticRSI, but given the difficulties many have had in replicating the settings from my database, we will be selecting another momentum oscillator to replace the stochRSI. But that will be it - 2 MA's and one oscillator. Those are all the "filters" we shall need. One of the goals of this project is to help us overcome the desire to add filters ad infinitum to our trading.

 

I hope you continue to participate in our project, but please check any extraneous indicators and system elements at the door. You can always pick them up on your way out;)

 

Thank you,

 

-optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

IConditions (2) and (3) could use a bit of tweaking in order to take into account the notion of "slightly above / below" (see OT's post above) albeit I have to say that I like the "hard coded" version where you compare 2 numbers: one is either higher than the other or it is not. The notions of slightly, almost or near give room to human interpretation and we all know where that ends :doh:.

 

As we get experience here, you will probably see that support, resistance, and price action will help to clarify the slightly, almost, and near on a case by case basis.

 

 

 

I know that this post is mostly a waste of bandwith ...

 

No such thing - yours is an excellent contribution to the project.

 

The basic concept is what is important and not what type of oscillator we'll use to time our entries (and I think OT demonstrated this fact by showing how interchangeable stochRSI, Momentum and Williams %R all are.)

 

Absolutely. If we can stick to the basics, we will be fine. And you are right, nearly any oscillator with a fairly short parameter will do. Even RSI, which the original poll selected, would work very well. I am simply looking for the one that offers the highest degree of visual clarity. They will all do the job. They will all be subject to whipsaws and successes.

 

Thank you for taking the time to post your thoughts,

 

-optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

For the forex traders among us, here is the GBPCHF:

 

 

-OT

[optiontimer 10]

Using our original 7stochasticRSI, we have to sell short signals - August Crude (sell stop 93.16) and September Coffee ( sell stop 257.50). Using an 8 period momentum, crude would be a short sale, but coffee would not.

 

Both Crude and Coffee did not trigger short entries. In fact, each rallied to new recovery highs. These show why we do not enter simply because and over bought or oversold condition exists. Price action, not the indicators, will pull us into a trade.

 

 

 

I call this chart template "optiontimer's laboratory." It will allow us to compare and contrast various alternatives to the stochRSI (which I am really liking, by the way). For now it shows our 7stochRSI, the 8Momentun, and a 5trix.

 

We'll see what we cook up in the laboratory.

[optiontimer 10]

YM flipped to an uptrend today, and NQ and ES do not seem far behind.

 

Gold, which was a long entry stopped for a loss last week is signaling a re-entry long for tomorrow (per our entry rules, of course).

 

Here is Gold:

 

[PWP 10]

For the forex traders among us, here is the GBPCHF:

 

-OT

 

I took that trade. Large stop but it fit the parameters. When should we move stop to BE? Thanks

 

- Peter

[cees 10]

Congrats with the thread

 

as for an oscillator to pinpoint the entry , I suppose that those with a clear OB/OS area Like RSI , StoRSI and Stochastics are easier to deal with then oscillators which have no bounderies.The risk is that with the last ones one can start debating about the right entrytime.

 

following this thread with the utmost interest.

[PWP 10]

Thanks OT,

 

I took the Gbp/Chf Short. Large stop but fit the system. When should I move the stop to BE? Just looking for more info on stop/limit management with your project.

 

Thanks for your thread!

[optiontimer 10]

Thanks OT,

 

I took the Gbp/Chf Short. Large stop but fit the system. When should I move the stop to BE? Just looking for more info on stop/limit management with your project.

 

Thanks for your thread!

 

Good work, PWP! When I trade this type of entry, my stop would be about ten pips above that swing high. I usually go to breakeven in the stop once the open profit is 100% of my initial margin.

 

You have to trade within your own comfort zone. It is times like this where you will find out your capacity for fear.

 

This is an old downtrend, but when I look at the monthly, I can see reason both to think this downtrend may soon bottom but also I see plenty of room to the downside. I cannot advise you as to your own funds and your own account. But if you want my traderly advice, you must be willing to watch your profit run to a loss in the search for the big profits. But once your profit is equal to your margin requirement, I follow Kroll and go to breakeven on my stop loss.

 

Good Luck - please keep us posted no matter how you decide to manage the trade.

 

Win, lose, or draw, you should be proud to have spotted that set -up and doubly so to have acted upon it:applaud:

 

Good luck, buddy!

 

-optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

...Gold, which was a long entry stopped for a loss last week is signaling a re-entry long for tomorrow (per our entry rules, of course).

 

I am on the road until tonight, so I will not be able to freshen the Gold chart until then, but following this system, Gold is not an active filled long position. Risk parameters prevented me from taking it in this account, but we will watch gold's progress as though we were long. I know paper & demo trades are not the same as real money trades, but that doesn't mean we cannot follow a few paper trades while learning our system.

 

-optiontimer

[Avarice 10]

A question about execution (of trades, not the trader :doh:)

 

What type of entry order do you guys think would be best for this system?

 

a STOP LIMIT oder

- reduces slippage ;

- makes us miss out on potential moves if prices gap past the LMT price ;

- reduces chances of getting whipsawed by the filling of said gap (remember the old rule "most gaps get filled").

 

a STOP MARKET order

- is a license to steal our hard-earned cash (potential for huge slippage) ;

- is a guarantee that we always get in on the action when the price makes a move in the direction of the planned trade ;

- potentially messes up risk/reward calculations due to a different entry price.

 

The two order types appeal to two different types of traders:

 

The conservative player has no problem knowing that he might miss out on a potential trade, this is the price he pays for the peace of mind knowing that his slippage will always be reasonable. He will use the limit order.

 

The aggressive trader banks on the assumption that each entry might potentially lead to a huge profit and gladly pays the slippage which, in his eyes, is the price to pay to be part of every move. He will enter the trade with a stop order.

 

Up until now I have always used STP LMT orders simply because I told myself that my entry price is my entry price and if the market decided to not let me enter at that level then so be it. Also I didnt like the idea of trying to enter a trade on a 3:1 RR ratio only to find myself going long or short at a 1.5:1 (or worse) ratio.

 

What are your comments, thoughts?

[optiontimer 10]

QUESTION:

 

What type of entry order do you guys think would be best for this system?

 

 

ANSWER:

 

a STOP MARKET order...is a guarantee that we always get in on the action when the price makes a move in the direction of the planned trade

 

That is my choice, anyway. But everyone has to answer to his own hopes and fears.

 

-optiontimer

[optiontimer 10]

Here is Gold working its way higher on its re-entry long. Using our .1ATR10 entry/stop loss parameter, entry would have been approximately 1521, and stop loss would be 1478. The first block identifies last week's losing trade, and the second block identifies the current active long.

 

 

-optiontimer

[russellhq 10]

Hi optiontimer,

 

First, thanks for taking the time to create and share this project with the community

I wait keenly for each new email alert to appear in my inbox as I'm sure many others do!

 

I would just like to discuss the rational behind the sell coffee alert. Looking at the weekly and monthly continuous charts for coffee it looks to be in a strong bull market and selling would seem to break that strong tenant "the trend is your friend ".

 

I got my chart info from here:

 

Coffee Monthly Commodity Futures Price Chart

 

If I've got something wrong please excuse me as I'm still new to this game!