Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

optiontimer

Trend & Momentum - Indicators of Choice II

Which indicator should I use to determine long-term trend for my trading system?  

106 members have voted

  1. 1. Which indicator should I use to determine long-term trend for my trading system?

    • Single Moving Average
      23
    • Dual Moving Averages (Short MA relative to Long MA)
      46
    • MACD
      13
    • Bollinger Bands
      10
    • Donchian Channel
      5
    • Other (Please post your suggestion to the thread when choosing this option)
      9


Recommended Posts

When you start the new thread, can you please post a reference to it here just before you close this one, so we get email notification ?

 

Thanks, Max

 

Sure thing ... thanks for that suggestion,

 

-optiontimer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi OT and others. I have been trading for about 4 years (unsuccessfully for about 3.5 years). My accounts (demo and real) are just starting to see some advancements in the last 6 months where previously there was a lot of downward movements. In the past I have done the indicator thing and been burned, probably because I didn't trade correctly with the indicators. For instance MA crosses, or price/close relative to MAs can make money. I guess my biggest mistake was to expect that every trade can turn into a nice big trend and make me rich!!! I have radically altered this to expect only a small targetted profit on each trade (1 lot) using a fibonacci extension target (132%, not 138%) then moving the stop to breakeven+ on the remaining portion (1 lot) to see if it turns into a trend.

 

An MA setup that I have been watching closely for some months now is the 2-3 SMA of the Open vs the 2-3 SMA of the Close - where SMA Close above SMA Open = uptrend and reverse for downtrend. Price crossing down the 2-3 SMA of the High and price crossing up the 2-3 SMA of the Low can be used for efficient entry points. I also enter similar to one of the previous posters with (for long entry) crossup of the previous bear candle's open and (for short entry) crossdown of the previous bull candle's open.

 

I have also been looking at trying to count Elliot Waves for entries and exits and have done some excellent trades when I got the counts correct. Of course, when you get the counts wrong you're stopped out...

 

Just my 2c worth... I have also invented an indicator which seems to indicate trend, but will post on that later with a chart when I am at home. I look forward with interest to the development of this thread.

 

As for instrument, my preferences are for those with the least spread, which for me are EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, FTSE100. I have spreadbetting accounts where I trade these based in the UK, although I now live and work in Brisbane, Australia.

 

Regards, Chris

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of my favorite trading books is Futures Trading Strategy by Stanley Kroll. It is out of print, but available used and on the cheap at Amazon and occasionally at ebay. I will be relying on it heavily, implicitly if not explicitly, as this project moves forward. Whether you are going to be following along or not, if you are not where you want to be as a trader, you might find this book worth s good read - or two or three or four.

 

On a side note, I mentioned that I would likely be using stochasticRSI (a stochastic of RSI) rather than RSI itself. Stanley Kroll, along with Tushar Chande, developed and wrote about the stochasticRSI in their collaborative effort The New Technical Trader.

 

Thank you,

 

-optiontimer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One of my favorite trading books is Futures Trading Strategy by Stanley Kroll. It is out of print, but available used and on the cheap at Amazon and occasionally at ebay. I will be relying on it heavily, implicitly if not explicitly, as this project moves forward...

 

I was poking around traderslaboratory.com and I found that a pdf file of Kroll's bok was posted here by thalestrader in the Reading Charts thread. You can download it by clicking on his quote which I am pasting below.

 

-OT

 

 

Weekend Reading

 

Hi Folks,

 

Here is a nice work by the late Stanley Kroll. I also recommend his earlier book, The Professional Commodity Trader. He is an interesting case in that he moved from being a largely discretionary trader to being systems based trader. What matters, however, is that whether he was trading based upon his discretion or his computerized systems, he knew well the importance of consistent and disciplined application of his method.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am not able to access the computer with CSI UA tonight, so the charts I will be posting as this project gets underway will look a bit different from this one. But I wanted to get this posted now so that any who are interested in following along can get themselves accustomed to the indicators I'll be using. The attached chart is a freebie you can use at Barchart.com - Commodity, stock and forex; quotes, charts & analysis. I will be using the 21 EMA, the 65 EMA, and, for now, a 7 period stochasticRSI. The chart looks like this:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=25001&stc=1&d=1308968372

 

I have decided that I will trade futures in this account. I will finalize the trading portfolio over the coming days. At this time, I will confirm that the eligible instruments will include US stock index futures (the e-mini's), forex futures (EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, and JPYUSD), and the 30 year bond and 10 year note. I will likely include several grains, softs, and meats as well. I still have not decided whether to include energy futures.

 

Once the trading portfolio is finalized, and I confirm with IB the account is ready for trading, I will start the trading thread.

 

I believe if you register at Barchart.com - Commodity, stock and forex; quotes, charts & analysis for free, that you can store your own "chart book" and save the a chart template matching the above chart. This would allow you to follow along on your own without having to rely solely on me and what I decide to post or not post. Also, since Barchart.com - Commodity, stock and forex; quotes, charts & analysis is free, there is no need to subscribe to CSI UA (keep your costs low right now so you can put the $$'s into your trading account rather than someone else's pockets). I will play with it tomorrow myself to see if it can be done there for free. If anyone already knows the answer, let us know here.

 

Thank You,

 

optiontimer

5aa710834e843_TraderslaboratoryProjectTemplate.jpg.9ad7eda06fb6b39660e99858c8db71e1.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
When you start the new thread, can you please post a reference to it here just before you close this one, so we get email notification ?

 

Thanks, Max

 

The new thread may be found here:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/10158-optiontimers-project.html#post121784

 

More material to follow in the coming hours or days - I want to have a good foundation for us to build upon.

 

Thank you,

 

optiontimer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • LZ LegalZoomcom stock, watch for a bull flag breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?LZ
    • XMTR Xometry stock, watch for a local breakout above 37.5, target 44 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?XMTR
    • INTC Intel stock, nice bounce off the lower 19.12 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?INTC
    • Date: 11th February 2025.   Market Update: Tariffs, Inflation, and Investor Sentiment Shape Global Markets.   Asian equities and US stock index futures experienced declines. At the same time, gold surged to a record high, reflecting investor caution following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium. Stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China faced selling pressure, contributing to a regional downturn. Futures contracts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Euro Stoxx 50 also traded lower. Meanwhile, Japanese markets remained closed due to a public holiday. Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset duringeconomic uncertainty, extended its rally for a third consecutive session, briefly surpassing $2,942 before paring some gains. The US dollar index maintained its Monday gains, signalling sustained strength amid market volatility. The precious metal has surged about 11% this year, setting successive records as Trump’s disruptive moves on trade and geopolitics reinforce its role as a store of value in uncertain times. US Steel and Metals Sector Reacts to Tariffs Shares of US Steel Corporation surged as much as 6% following Trump’s announcement, as domestic metals producers saw a boost from the prospect of increased business and stronger pricing power. Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, the top steel suppliers to the US, are expected to be significantly impacted by these trade restrictions. Trump stated that the new tariffs, effective in March, aim to revitalize domestic production and job growth. However, he also suggested the possibility of further tariff increases, adding to market uncertainty.     Investor Concerns Over Tariffs and Trade War Escalation Investors are grappling with the implications of Trump’s tariffs, particularly in distinguishing between policy announcements and concrete actions. The uncertainty surrounding additional levies and potential retaliatory measures has reignited fears of an intensifying global trade war. Tariffs on Chinese goods are already in effect, and concerns persist about further economic fallout. According to Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs, the key challenge in portfolio strategy now lies in identifying assets that can effectively hedge against tariff risks. Speaking to Bloomberg Television, he noted, “The big challenge is that this is going to be much more difficult from here because the tariffs are very specific.” Key Economic Data and Federal Reserve Testimony in Focus Beyond trade tensions, investors are closely watching this week’s critical economic reports and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify before Congress, while fresh inflation data will provide further insight into price trends. According to the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, inflation expectations for both the one-year and three-year outlooks remained steady at 3% in January. Short-term US inflation expectations have now risen above longer-term projections to their widest gap since 2023, signalling potential shifts in monetary policy. Inflation data, Powell’s congressional testimony, and tariffs are poised to drive the market today. A reprieve from negative surprises, such as the impact of DeepSeek, ongoing tariffs, and consumer sentiment concerns, could push S&P 500 to break out of its two-month consolidation.     Currency and Commodity Markets React The currency market also reflected shifting investor sentiment. The Japanese Yen remained largely unchanged. Meanwhile, the British Pound weakened after a report from the Financial Times cited Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann’s concerns that weakening demand is beginning to outweigh inflationary risks. Gold’s continued ascent has been accompanied by significant inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Global holdings have risen in six of the past seven weeks, reaching their highest levels since November. Banks have forecast that gold could test the $3,000 mark, with Citigroup predicting it could hit that level within three months and J.P. Morgan Private Bank projecting a year-end target of $3,150. Market Resilience Amid Trade Uncertainty Despite ongoing tariff tensions, equities have demonstrated resilience, leading some analysts to caution that further trade escalations could trigger renewed market pullbacks. Strategists at Deutsche Bank AG, including Binky Chadha, suggested that historical patterns indicate sharp but short-lived equity selloffs during geopolitical events, with markets typically rebounding before any formal de-escalation occurs. They projected that, in such scenarios, equity markets could decline by 6%-8% over a three-week period before recovering in a similar timeframe. China’s Growing Gold Reserves and Market Influence China’s central bank expanded its gold reserves for the third consecutive month in January, signalling an ongoing commitment to diversifying its holdings despite record-high prices. In addition, China introduced a pilot program allowing 10 major insurers to invest up to 1% of their assets in bullion for the first time. This initiative could translate into as much as 200 billion Yuan ($27.4 billion) in potential gold investments. Key Market Events to Watch This Week Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today Speeches by Fed officials Beth Hammack, John Williams, and Michelle Bowman today US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, Wednesday As global markets continue to navigate economic uncertainties, investors remain watchful of trade developments, monetary policy signals, and inflation trends that could shape the financial landscape in the coming weeks.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • KAR Openlane stock breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?KAR
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.