Week 4

[torero 10]

Got stopped out here from trailing stop.

 

[Buk 10]

I was going to say how great the charts are from buk and tex. I peruse once in a while and find how well those pivots work. I'm going to add those pivots in now.

 

 

well, they work for us anyhow!......thing is (as with any form of technical plays) to try keep the "visuals" simple & also find something to confirm them with?.....practice, practice, practice & train your mind to spot a favorite technical set-up so you can spot it in an instant from 100mtrs LOL........

 

to give you an example....all us kids used to play a game a few yrs back where we had 5mins to leaf thru a set of charts (240m thru 30m) & spot as many potential (of our favored) set-ups as quickly as possible......the rules were: there had to be a confluence!!.....whatever the confluence of choice was.....for instance, a clear & definite swing axis/noticeable top-bottom/key round number etc.......

 

we were only permitted to use pivots & fibs........if they hit on a confluence zone, we chose the best opp & picked that pair/instrument to research further.....we were then given a further 5mins to present a playable (potential) trade, including entry/risk/management.....

 

we continue to adopt that exercise to this day.......it's simply repetative behaviour practice....eventually, it programmes the mind to spot similar patterns at similar levels time after time..........

 

it also builds "intuitive" or instinctive traits......most of the time you get to the point where you can virtually accept or reject a potential trade based on prev experience & results etc........

 

Anna & myself now almost exclusively stick to the 78.6/pivot confluence set-up to further investigate a potential trade set-up.........

 

they don't all come off obviously, but they don't need to..........we know that as long as we look regularly enough & pick the cherries, we'll return the booty often enough to make a simple 5-10min scan worthwhile

 

and that's just one particular set-up/strat play...........there are a few others we use with a similar approach which have shown a positive expectancy......

 

but, I aint gonna give all the secrets away LOL..........

 

if you practice & study hard & often enough, the grind gets a little easier

 

2 other opp's today torero on the crosses, which panned out according to our "quick scan" observations........just shows, it's not only the majors which attract the cherry opp's!!

 

 

 

 

 

and the CHF/YEN cross from earlier today...........

 

 

 

[torero 10]

78.6 huh? I'll have to start scanning for these more often. I've applied 50% in futures with success but if looks like I'll have to check this one out. Excellent post training on the intuitive and instinctive training. I'll get there someday. Thanks, buk for the help.

 

About the 35 and 50, are these also fib right? If yes, have you found 21.4 or 38 to work?

[torero 10]

I normally don't counter-trade but seeing this is a monthly support, decided to take it with a small stop loss. 5min chart showing a low failure. I think this trade might fail on grounds that it was too early for a reversal and i rely heavily on this support to work, but gotta play once i'm in.

 

[Buk 10]

some pretty heavy unwinding of carry trades going on out there at the mo.....the jawboning is increasing between Eurozone & Asian finance chiefs, namely BoJ member Miyako Suda......she's the target for much of y'days short covering with her hawkish comments......same old, same old.......

 

wouldn't be surprised to witness more sharp jolts in the Yen pairings (across the board) as the rhetoric intensifies..........

 

they aint best pleased with the Jap positioning on rates v/s the economy & we could be in for some stormy sea's....should lead to one or two decent opp's on those pairs tho as more traders up their short covering

[hokshila 10]

OK folks, I did do a serious reading yesterday and that's how I understand it:

 

Find set ups (i.e.: reversal exhaustion candle formations) on higher time

frames, daily, 4 hours, 1 hour, and plot S&R, pivots and fibs.

 

Fine tune entries with 15 min and 5 min.

 

Right now I'm looking at the pound and that's what I see

 

 

Let me know if I'm on the right track.

 

Hokshila

 

[hokshila 10]

This is my 4 hours. We can see a range forming.

 

This is what I'd do:

 

Wait and see how this range box develops.

 

If there's a breakout, either North or South, wait for a pullback to validate the b/o.

 

[torero 10]

Exit here, stopped from trailing stops. I'm starting to like using trailing stops alot in forex, much much more useful than for stocks and futures! I may have found my exit strategy! I'm actually surprised that this trade worked out, to be honest. I don't think I'll do this often.

 

[hokshila 10]

This is my 1 hour.

 

Waiting for a p/b to confirm b/o of fib levels?

 

[torero 10]

hok, what are the red dotted lines going through the chart? standard deviations or regression lines? Not sure if you're using too much, but pivots and fibs would be a good start and london high-low and tokyo high-low would be good start. More might clutter the charts and you'll be more confused than before.

 

Here's what I do: I start with monthly charts, drawing the horizontal of highs and low of bars that are nearest to current price. Mark those on 240min-charts. Then do the same with weekly chart and marke them onto 240min. By this time, there are already lots of lines to keep your chart busy. I then turn the pivots and fibs on and off (to see confluence as buk, tex and others like to say. Us futures folks call them clusters).

 

So now, the trick is wait for the prices to get there (notice I say trick because it's difficult for traders to be patience enough to get there, they trade their account away and by the time it got there, their balance is exhausted or their psyche is already fatigued already, they're afraid to take action there). Once you see price react to these areas, then you have a choice, buy or sell. I would watch for higher high/low or lower high/low for cues to determine where it wants to go and go with it. That's pretty much my trading strategy. Now you know my secret.

[hokshila 10]

Torero, thanks for the reply.

 

What I'm trying to do is trapping price inside a channel and see how it reacts

inside of it: Buy at lower channel line/ Sell at Top.

 

You are seeing different channels here. The one with the red dots is a Fib

channel. I have marked extensions outside the channel to gauge exhaustion. The

other one is a Linear regression.

 

On these higher time frames I'm plotting the big swing fibo too.

 

On my lower time frames (15 min) I have the pivot points, Tokyo H/L and pd

fibos.

 

I purposely posted those "almost naked" charts for simplicity. Should I also

plot pivot points, Tokyo H/L and pd fibos on the higher tf charts too?

[torero 10]

Here's USDCHF confirming a symmetrical triangle breakdown. Shorting at the apex was the ideal entry but I'm looking for a rally to short here. This is amazing, I never knew how many opportunities there are in forex! If there are that many, I may never have to trade futures after this.

 

[Buk 10]

Should I also plot pivot points, Tokyo H/L and pd fibos on the higher tf charts too?

 

you should do whatever you find helpful in assisting your trade observations......

 

if you can work with multiple information on your main technical template, then all good & well........if you require 2 or 3 monitors with your relevant info plotted across a varied timeframe template, then so be it.....or maybe multi-chart timeframes with differing info on seperate timeframes?

 

it's not particularly the specific lines/fibs/pivots which are of prime importance.....but where on the technical map they're forming!

 

if you get a particular level (which you find important) setting up on a confluence trigger, then I guess it amplifies that area, if that's what you're looking for?

 

the plan then is to ensure that whatever triggers or execution modes you're utilizing work to a positive expectancy..........

 

that takes both time & research........it's certainly helpful if you find a combination of technical aids which suit your personality and/or your views on trade prep, execution & management?

 

there's no right or wrong with however a trader utilizes the various price aid tools.......the important thing is that it/they work for you & return a positive bottom line expectancy.............

[hokshila 10]

Went short at 9715.

 

Reason:

 

- Confluence of PP and 382 Fib level from pd move broken.

 

- Reversal candles on my 15 min.

 

Don't know if entry was OK because we were near a round number and I was just plain

lucky and should have waited to take a p/b after piercing the round number.

[hokshila 10]

Covered my short at 9700 (+12).

 

However, If my observations are correct, though lucky, I got it all wrong. This move

down was the p/b from this morning's piercing of Asian box.

 

Tipped me because price held at 618 ret of today's up leg.

 

I drew a fib on the 4 h starting Jan 16th and realized price had been sitting on

the 78.6 ret. and this p/b was after crossing the 61.8 of that move.

 

Additionally, all fib levels and today's pp are matching perfectly at different

levels.

 

I'm starting to like those fibs on the 4 hour!

 

Hope I got right this time and I'm not just rumbling.

 

See pp and 4h fib detail on the 15 m.

 

[torero 10]

Good scalp! Tex mentioned that fib and pivots work best in 240min or higher, I use this rule also. I only use lower frames for watching only price action, not other indicator, to exact my entries. hope this helps.

[hokshila 10]

Thanks torero, but I think I got just lucky, I'm not the best scalper.

 

I remember reading about fib and pivots working best in 240min or higher, but I

think she was referring to the 35%-50% S/R levels (which I still don't understand

how she get's them), maybe I'm wrong.

[torero 10]

Well, it's a fact that the higher the frame, the more reliable the prices pattern, S/R and other levels, including indicators. The smaller the frames, the more noise you get so your trades will get whipped around.

[torero 10]

And I thought GBPUSD was volatile, GBPJPY moves like a wild bull, all over the place! NICE!

 

I'm a bit confused and new to how the pips are calculated. In EURUSD, 1 pip is $10 (for standard lot). How much is 1 pip in USDJPY or USDCHF, does it depend on the 2nd currency? If I have a US$ account, is it calculated to the exact spot rate? I'm very curious. This morning's trade was the $1 to 1 pip gains, so I'm not really sure how it works.

[Buk 10]

I've got a conversion grid for them all somewhere....I'll post up the calc basis for them when I can put me hand on it.......

 

in the meantime, why not use a leverage/risk matrix?

 

just pop your base currency (equity) in at the top....you can then stipulate your exact % of equity you wish to use & it'll work out your sizing & base currency costings relative to the pair or cross you're looking to trade.....

 

Forex trading - Mataf.net

[torero 10]

What a great tool, thanks buk. Site has some nice stuff.

[hokshila 10]

Wow, what an interesting day we had yesterday. It really tested our patience.

 

Anyway, I managed to learn some more good stuff. This is what I did:

 

Since previous day was a wide range day I plotted Anna-Maria's S&R levels, Buk

kindly posted them in the pivot's thread.

 

Let me tell you something, those babes really work. They perfectly

captured the day's move and saved my day too!

 

Another thing I did was to re-evaluate my fib's on the daily and I realized

price was finding support at a fib level. That made things clearer.

 

At around 18:00 GMT I saw finally some activity on the Swissy and at 19:00 GMT

the Pound finally went below the fib level and placed my trade at 9682 all the

way down to 9632 for a neat 50 pips profit.

 

The p/b at 18:00 GMT also confirmed my trade.

 

See 15 min detail below

 

[hokshila 10]

Right now I'm watching the action around the fib level and see if price holds

inside the channel.

 

This is the 4h chart

 

[steveshutts 10]

Morning guys,

Back from a couple of days off, seems like you have all been hunting down the good opps out there, nice to see plenty of trades being posted.

I have just taken a short on the swissy. Price has been rejected again off the 2525 area, which has been a strong resistance area of late.

This area was a watch area for me after the break of the asymmetrical triangle that Torero highlighted the other day.

Had a nice 2B pattern on the 30 min chart with inverted hammer bar off resistance, an inside bar print on the 15 and also a nice 1-2-3 on the 5 min chart, all lining up nicely for a short.

Hourly looks like it is going to print a nice inverted hammer spike.

Looking for 2430 -50 area for first level scale out.

Charts to follow to highlight trade.

[steveshutts 10]

Charts for trade.