Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Now that takes @#%^ to go work out..I can barely go to the bathroom..

 

checking in from my phone, and using voice dictation, so the post may not be quite accurate. But I just logged in and saw that the target was almost hit, so I closed the 2nd unit 1400.25. Putting the stop at 1399, and will be back home soon.

[onesmith 10]

I have 1401.75 hod for regular session at aproximately 845 this morning.

 

Speaking of which -- I should probably go take care of some business before an accident happens at the desk...

 

Hard to believe the the opening is still the HOD (excluding GBX high)...if we don't break 1401 level today, then I'm definitely joining Tom in the short camp (not to be mistaken with the short bus)...

 

However, still long from 1397...initial target is still 1401...before I start considering where to rotation down will be.

 

CYP

[roztom 10]

I have 1401.75 hod for regular session at aproximately 845 this morning.

 

1401.75 is an important number & it should get taken out or at least tested.. but I'm a bit off it here since my short term stuff is long but some of my other stuff is just seeing this as an inside test of a potentially negative structure... BTW that takes nothing away from the long side...

 

I may actually trade it from both sides until I get evidence that we have more than 1402.00 1405.00 ish ish upside..

 

Since I can't get location for a long..I have to wait for a rotation if we haven't tested up top so I can ride that later or we won't make it... I'm leaning with the longs... though but on the sidelines for now..

[joshdance 10]

checking in from my phone, and using voice dictation, so the post may not be quite accurate. But I just logged in and saw that the target was almost hit, so I closed the 2nd unit 1400.25. Putting the stop at 1399, and will be back home soon.

 

Just got home, and closed the final one at 1400.50 -- I can see 1403 or even higher, but I don't think it's happening until it rotates towards 98s first. Now I can enjoy my lunch and not think about this market for a few mins

[roztom 10]

Just got home, and closed the final one at 1400.50 -- I can see 1403 or even higher, but I don't think it's happening until it rotates towards 98s first. Now I can enjoy my lunch and not think about this market for a few mins

 

Josh: What a nice way to do it.. Works out, has lunch, has a masseuse come in, lights some candles, burns some incence, makes $...

[joshdance 10]

I think it just made another one of those things that Josh doesn't like! (upwards)

 

Here's the view after the TL break earlier...

[roztom 10]

Here's the view after the TL break earlier...

 

Is that 1m chart ? JOsh

[joshdance 10]

has a masseuse come in, lights some candles, burns some incence,

 

Now THIS would be nice!

 

But in honesty I feel lucky that I am having a day in the black and not in the red. I basically got back in at my earlier stop out price, so essentially I bought on the way down, when I'd prefer to have bought around 95.50, scaled in another at 96, and one more at 97.25, on the way UP -- I would have had a better profit and experience. I suppose it would have been worse to not re-enter though, so at least I'm happy I did that part right--nothing makes most traders more sick than stopping out and then seeing their idea play out without them.

 

 

Is that 1m chart ? JOsh

 

Yes it is

[roztom 10]

Here's the pullback that refreshens... :missy:

 

I am conflicted so I am waiting for a clearer picture...

[CYP 10]

I have 1401.75 hod for regular session at aproximately 845 this morning.

 

Thanks onesmith - I was asleep during that part of the session... :crap:

 

Where's my 1401? I'd like to go work out and get a massage, like Josh...

 

CYP

[roztom 10]

Joined the long crowd @ 99.25... not thrilled about it..going to scale close 1400.50 and then see if we have any more juice in this ..

 

Single 1401.75 has held this so far..

 

If this fails I will short 98.00

 

Helmet on...

 

Edit: If we rotate against the short, and hold the test I will add for a continuation on the short side but I am in a mixed bag as you can see from my reversal.. I may just get whipped - too soon to tell..

Edited March 21, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

The character is such that I expect at least another run for the high. And 97s might be the best price we get if it's going up, though I would not be shocked to see 96s. Much below that, and a run at the day's low may be in store, and if that were to break, we would be overlapping yesterday's excess buying tail (down to 92), which would signal to me that 87s is is likely. Not all that may happen this afternoon for sure, but it seems a plausible scenario to me.

 

The top here is not particularly convincing, and at least another effort to break it is in store this afternoon IMO. 1:45pm is not a time I want to open a trade usually though, more around 2:30 or so would be ideal, or even 3:00. I am still bullish and see yesterday's test below to 92 a very significant signal of the demand in this area.

[roztom 10]

Here's where MP & charts can conflict a bit... My bar charts smell bearish, especially the longer daytimeframes 60m, 30m, etc.. I typically don't pay all that much attention to them as a daytrader except when it shouts at me like it has for the short side...

 

I am clueless of course ..

[roztom 10]

12:53cst..this is the test against the shorts1400 ish ought to be it unless the longs are back in it..

 

This is punt... I will add to short if the test is confirmed... clueless right now...

[joshdance 10]

pop up to 1401 here smells like a trap...

[roztom 10]

Ihad trouble here..I am back long but it has not been a fun day so far... up channel has held so ... that's where I am unless a failure/

[roztom 10]

Took one scale, looking 1402.00 then 1404.00 ish... :crap:

 

Just FYI, this is one of the worst days I've had in a long, long time... I am not shy to share this - you guys know me I trust by now... I was in a cuisinart...and conflicted...

 

I have already written today off.. I have let go of the loss but I will not let go of the reasons... that will be for me to sort out tonight..

 

One thing I will share.. I looked at some things I usually don't & that was longer term charts 60m, etc... I created my own problem... SO I will revisit what I was seeing and determine what was conflicting and if I can see no benifit jettison the 60's...

 

For whatever reason I did not trade today like I usually do... so I am going to review what I was up to...maybe I should just do what Josh did & go work out - my wife would throw a party...

 

Edit: 2:53cst.. I missed my second scale so I liq B/E on the balance.. not pretty...

 

If I made a list of what went wrong it is Trading 101: Overtraded, Created Conflict, Mixed Timeframes: DID NOt FOLLOW PLAN... Other than that it was a lovely day.. :doh:

Edited March 21, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

Just don't beat yourself up Tom. If I thought about quitting every time I had a bad day, I'd have left trading a long time ago. We all have bad days, me more than any of you probably. Just work it out, don't get down on yourself, and think about how much you enjoy doing this profession; revitalize yourself and I'll see you tomorrow when you'll be heavy in the green partner!

[roztom 10]

Putting aside for a moment the difficulty I had today...going into the cash close we are selling off pretty well.. As you know I had a bearish view based on longer term charts, 60's, etc... I tried to put the MP/VP within the context of a longer timeframe...

 

- but I am not trading that timeframe... Here is what is interesting..the chart was saying bearish. The Profile traded both sides in it's timeframe so I was standing against a shorter term timeframe that will rotate.. even though the 60m Chart looked bearish..

 

I should have just traded rotations... Sometimes this kind of stuff happens to me since I was weaned on bar charts and longer timeframes. I unconsciously will take a look at them and slip a gear.

 

Todays result for me wasn't good but it appears the analysis was good - of course got to be able to trade the analysis - right?

 

:helloooo:

Edited March 21, 2012 by roztom

[roztom 10]

quote=joshdance;143436]Just don't beat yourself up Tom. If I thought about quitting every time I had a bad day, I'd have left trading a long time ago. We all have bad days, me more than any of you probably. Just work it out, don't get down on yourself, and think about how much you enjoy doing this profession; revitalize yourself and I'll see you tomorrow when you'll be heavy in the green partner!

 

 

Thanks..truly appreciate the words... it's like we're each others trading therapists... :bang head:[

Edited March 21, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

Todays result for me wasn't good but it appears the analysis was good - of course got to be able to trade the analysis - right?

 

Tom, in a word--yes. The thing is, none of us will look at a chart and only have one perspective, buy or sell. We all at least consider, even if for a moment, both possibilities. And when we lose, our hindsight bias takes over, and we do the "coulda shoulda"... not saying your dominant bias was not short, but had it moved up above 01s and made a run higher, as you had hoped it would when you were long, then we would be talking a different story and you would likely be thinking that your short bias was misplaced--so a small series of events, which can not be predicted ahead of time, that occurred about 3:30, is causing you to have the feeling you are. But the thing is, the bearish view was good for about the first hour and a half, and the last half hour. Otherwise, the order flow was bullish throughout the day.

 

Will it continue to break down and go below 90s? Possibly, in which case your bearish view was right. But IMO we still have a clear range, 94s to 01s, and this late selloff doesn't really mean much until the low 90s are breached.

 

I was still looking to buy near the end of the day but will post a chart later showing why I did not (and happy I did not).

[roztom 10]

Tom, in a word--yes. The thing is, none of us will look at a chart and only have one perspective, buy or sell. We all at least consider, even if for a moment, both possibilities. And when we lose, our hindsight bias takes over, and we do the "coulda shoulda"... not saying your dominant bias was not short, but had it moved up above 01s and made a run higher, as you had hoped it would when you were long, then we would be talking a different story and you would likely be thinking that your short bias was misplaced--so a small series of events, which can not be predicted ahead of time, that occurred about 3:30, is causing you to have the feeling you are. But the thing is, the bearish view was good for about the first hour and a half, and the last half hour. Otherwise, the order flow was bullish throughout the day.

 

Will it continue to break down and go below 90s? Possibly, in which case your bearish view was right. But IMO we still have a clear range, 94s to 01s, and this late selloff doesn't really mean much until the low 90s are breached.

 

I was still looking to buy near the end of the day but will post a chart later showing why I did not (and happy I did not).

 

Agree..as you summarized I had 2 conflicting scenarios playing out in multiple timeframes - If I was actually trading 60's I would still be short and would have never taken a long... eventhough I made $ on both sides it was stepping in front of it on rotations looking for short continuation... I was absolutely trading the wrong timeframe or at very least if I trade a 60 then use a 60m stop & Risk... Of course the 60m is not a daytrading timeframe I was not thinking too much about the shorter timeframe rotations inside of it...

 

I agree with your areas, of course but the chart is saying bearish - to where ? 84's or lower...This will be interesting to see what materializes.. and "if" , "how" it gets there.

Edited March 21, 2012 by roztom

[CYP 10]

Agree..as you summarized I had 2 conflicting scenarios playing out in multiple timeframes - If I was actually trading 60's I would still be short and would have never taken a long... eventhough I made $ on both sides it was stepping in front of it on rotations looking for short continuation... I was absolutely trading the wrong timeframe or at very least if I trade a 60 then use a 60m stop & Risk... Of course the 60m is not a daytrading timeframe I was not thinking too much about the shorter timeframe rotations inside of it...

 

I agree with your areas, of course but the chart is saying bearish - to where ? 84's or lower...This will be interesting to see what materializes.. and "if" , "how" it gets there.

 

Tom (and Josh) - thanks for the perspectives and candid thoughts.

 

It's already been said here, but it's interesting to read the differing viewpoints and how each of us acts/reacts to what we see, even though we're looking at the same information.

 

It was a truly long day for me, since I was long and waiting for 1401 to hit, so I could sell and reverse. It wasn't until the last 30 minutes before this happened...but the good thing was that it did happen. One good trade?

 

I liked Josh's post about 1401 smelling like a trap as it eventually started selling off into the close.

 

My bias is still slightly negative (just like Tom's). The Bulls were able to hold the 1400 level (barely), but I felt the conviction was not quite there...we'll see how tomorrow pans out.

 

Take care,

 

CYP

[roztom 10]

I just did a playback of today... I am going to keep my 15m chart..that is the one I really like for the interday structure..once I go longer it messes up & conflicts with the interday rotations inside those longer bars..

 

The 15m as a long day timeframe is really good, imho, to use along side the VP... I also have several other timeframes... sometimes I drop down to 233t - I call this "periscope depth" - when I am approaching an actionable area.

[joshdance 10]

Here is my picture. It's from earlier today I think. I agree that it was definitely bearish that the market could not breaker higher this afternoon. But until it goes south of those two shaded lines below, I'm a bull

 

Just look at that profile on the left, it's this week so far. Very clearly defined balance area. The one on the right is simply this portion of the yearly profile. All that 2007 composite activity means about as close to zero as it possibly can as long as we are in this range, IMO.

 

This was essentially the reason I did not buy this afternoon; it's prime area for shorting, and it would have needed to break above 1402, hold there, and then I would have looked to have bought. But until it did that, it was simply a good shorting area.