Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Thanks N -- I have re-shorted here at the high, 1401.25, with a small stop as I don't want to get railroaded, but I see enough volume to offer resistance to the buying, but overall I am still leaning towards a neutral type of day, given the news schedule (or lack thereof) and volume overnight and so far. I just don't see OTF participating enough up here to reprice the market higher today.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just keep an eye on dollar index(and/or euro)

[roztom 10]

Well you guys positioned the short better than me..it ticked my first scale & reversed.. I ended up eating 1pt per car...

 

I got long against a LVN 98.75 @ 1399.00 and am holding waiting for a bkout , Have scales laid out - none off yet.. with final target 1405.00 for last scale... "Trading Gods be Willing"

 

Edit: If it breaks down from here I'll scratch it .. GRRRR :helloooo:

Edited March 19, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

Just keep an eye on dollar index(and/or euro)

 

Closed my short 1400.00, too much volume for me right at the VWAP ... could go either way IMO though down is still quite possible...

 

Was just thinking about dx, euro, etc... -- I have not watched either for some time. Can you talk a little more about the relationship right now with equities?

[roztom 10]

BTW: I hullucinate 15m Flags... that's what I see & we are in the congestion here but it "looks" like a lazy coil to me... but as Josh says ACH:missy:

[TheNegotiator 13]

Closed my short 1400.00, too much volume for me right at the VWAP ... could go either way IMO though down is still quite possible...

 

Was just thinking about dx, euro, etc... -- I have not watched either for some time. Can you talk a little more about the relationship right now with equities?

 

Well, depending on what's happening it varies from day to day. Sometimes it's close, sometimes it's not, Sometimes it reverses.

 

Example. QE sends dollar plummeting and ES rocketing. Why? Because money pumped in means lower relative $ value and so anything priced in $ has to reprice, plus of course the possibility(albeit remote ) that QE helps the economy. Then at other times it inverts. You can see it when good eco reports come out. Good for economy good for relative $ value good for ES. Then sometimes the market just loses interest and there a disconnection. The important thing is to watch a chart and see how ES is reacting relative to them(or anything, watch them around where you are interested in taking a position and whatever you do don't get fixated on the relationship!!!

[roztom 10]

I'd love to tell you how smart I am but I took my stupid pill...I got stopped at low of retrace... stop should have been 2 tics further away... I bought it right back...no matter what happens that was an unneccesay B/E .. I gave up .75 trade location to get my position back... :crap:

 

 

SO now I have a 5 tic risk instead of 2 tick...

 

I don't mind telling you this is where my focus breaks down... and it does impact the P & L..fortunately I do enough things right but it does add up... As I get older it is happening more often... Also I am taking some allergy med this morning - .. we have an early Spring in the Midwest..been in the 70's - 80's when it is usually around freezing so everything is blooming...

Edited March 19, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

The important thing is to watch a chart and see how ES is reacting relative to them(or anything, watch them around where you are interested in taking a position and whatever you do don't get fixated on the relationship!!!

 

This is why I usually don't watch too many interrelated markets (or any at all most of the time) .. just ES and the cash. It's easy to get too caught up in divergences between two markets like equities and euro, and then next thing you know they're converging, then diverging, and then I scratch my head and realize that reading one market is difficult enough, without introducing another, with the added complexity of the interrelationship between the two. At some point I may give it another shot as I do see the value in understanding these market relationships, but watching them is another thing altogether from understanding them, so for now I'm content with just ES to watch.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I'd love to tell you how smart I am but I took my stupid pill...I got stopped at low of retrace... stop should have been 2 tics further away... I bought it right back...no matter what happens that was an unneccesay B/E .. I gave up .75 trade location to get my position back... :crap:

 

 

SO now I have a 5 tic risk instead of 2 tick...

 

I don't mind telling you this is where my focus breaks down... and it does impact the P & L..fortunately I do enough things right but it does add up... As I get older it is happening more often... Also I am taking some allergy med this morning - .. we have an early Spring in the Midwest..been in the 70's - 80's when it is usually around freezing so everything is blooming...

 

Oh dear. I'm not too keen on Monday's in general. Never really in the flow until Tuesday

 

Plus the day is pretty lame so far. A bit concerning for bulls maybe or just NMI(need for info)?

[joshdance 10]

I wonder if the market will return any time soon to the normalcy that economic concerns would lead to caution and thus selling, and good economic news would mean confidence, and thus an investment in it.

 

Today, concerns and doubts about a healthy economy cause all eyes to look to the fed, whose monetary policies have to this point shown willingness to always help; and signs of a strengthening economy lead to more of the same.

 

Fed's Fisher says no more liquidity needed | Reuters

[TheNegotiator 13]

This is why I usually don't watch too many interrelated markets (or any at all most of the time) .. just ES and the cash. It's easy to get too caught up in divergences between two markets like equities and euro, and then next thing you know they're converging, then diverging, and then I scratch my head and realize that reading one market is difficult enough, without introducing another, with the added complexity of the interrelationship between the two. At some point I may give it another shot as I do see the value in understanding these market relationships, but watching them is another thing altogether from understanding them, so for now I'm content with just ES to watch.

 

Really though, I've looked at enough to realize that it's just crazy to be too focussed and silly to not watch pther markets at all. If one market which happens to have a decent enough relationship with another, starts trading heavily in one direction, it does give you a great heads up. Plus it can be really interesting if a realated market is pressing one way heavily and yours isn't really too interested or is being difficult. If the other market turns, that can give you a nice little trade.

[joshdance 10]

Plus the day is pretty lame so far. A bit concerning for bulls maybe or just NMI(need for info)?

 

NOTHING concerning the bulls, IMO. For several months they have had what has been essentially a zero risk environment.

[roztom 10]

Oh dear. I'm not too keen on Monday's in general. Never really in the flow until Tuesday

 

Plus the day is pretty lame so far. A bit concerning for bulls maybe or just NMI(need for info)?

 

LESSON: TRADING 101

 

Well I got my scales.. so that is some salve on the psyche and am holding my runner target only 1405.00.

 

Moral of my lack of focus:

 

1. I gave up 1399.00 trade location with 2 tick risk to buy back @ 1399.75..

2. Increasing my risk to 5 ticks... over double..

3. Gave up .75 pts profit potential on the other side...

 

That is an interesting lesson and look at the consequences of the slip up..

 

I am posting this because while nobody else screws up like I do :rofl: Right? I want readers to see what can happen and what it can mean even for a seasoned trader...

 

That IMHO is where I can help others who read this thread... that is why I am here and also to get help for myself so I can do better...

[joshdance 10]

An interesting graphic of the YTD VWAP, which is in blue, with 1st (red) and 2nd (green) standard deviation bands.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I went short the 3.25's for a rotation down. Plus my upper target is 6.75/7.00. But who knows right?

[roztom 10]

I went short the 3.25's for a rotation down. Plus my upper target is 6.75/7.00. But who knows right?

 

N: I have 1405.50 on my composite.. I think it might not be set right..which date are you using?

[TheNegotiator 13]

I hate the grinder!!!

[TheNegotiator 13]

N: I have 1405.50 on my composite.. I think it might not be set right..which date are you using?

 

I am using 03/14/07. It's difficult to justify going any further back than this. The prior balance if you look is pretty much covered from this date apart from the tail end of the trend. I think what you have is okay too, just a bit thin.

[joshdance 10]

N: I have 1405.50 on my composite.. I think it might not be set right..which date are you using?

 

Not right or wrong Tom, just a different start date -- king of the composite, FT71, begins his long term profile in 10/2007, which you are as well I think, because that's the most recent top. N is using the beginning of that whole period of balance so it goes further.

 

Personally I think a look at SPY, or even TPOs of SPX, would give a clearer picture, as ES has been back-adjusted, spliced, combined, and mangled many different ways by many different data providers in those last 5 years at each rollover (about 18 of them). Just look at the last major swing low last October 2011 -- looking at a continuous ES contract you would think it only dipped 3 points below the August low, when a look at the cash will show it actually went 26 points below. Just my

 

Cash shows market's next target IMO: 1440, by the time we get there probably about 1437 ES.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I have around 1430 as a high volume target above, then around 50 for the dist low vol extreme

[roztom 10]

I have around 1430 as a high volume target above, then around 50 for the dist low vol extreme

 

JOsh Quote: Not right or wrong Tom, just a different start date -- king of the composite, FT71, begins his long term profile in 10/2007, which you are as well I think, because that's the most recent top. N is using the beginning of that whole period of balance so it goes further.

 

Personally I think a look at SPY, or even TPOs of SPX, would give a clearer picture, as ES has been back-adjusted, spliced, combined, and mangled many different ways by many different data providers in those last 5 years at each rollover (about 18 of them). Just look at the last major swing low last October 2011 -- looking at a continuous ES contract you would think it only dipped 3 points below the August low, when a look at the cash will show it actually went 26 points below. Just my

 

Cash shows market's next target IMO: 1440, by the time we get there probably about 1437 ES

 

Thanks..Well I just got my "runner" scale 1405.00 so I am done for now unless we counter rotate and then I would scalp around a upper balance area if it's large enough..maybe with 1402 - 04 bottom range...

 

Thanks for the info...guys..

[joshdance 10]

Well if there has been one thing for sure today, it's that my hypothesis that we would range was WAY off. We are now from 70% earlier relative volume, all the way up to 95%. There seems to be little shortage of buyers willing to pay up. Almost so much that it seems only the naive would do so, but so far, they have proven to be on the profitable side of the market today. No fear here, it seems. I guess the important thing is that I abandoned my hypothesis when I saw the first real signs that the market probably would not trade lower (when I closed my 2nd short) and did not stick to it with misplaced hope.

[roztom 10]

Well if there has been one thing for sure today, it's that my hypothesis that we would range was WAY off. We are now from 70% earlier relative volume, all the way up to 95%. There seems to be little shortage of buyers willing to pay up. Almost so much that it seems only the naive would do so, but so far, they have proven to be on the profitable side of the market today. No fear here, it seems. I guess the important thing is that I abandoned my hypothesis when I saw the first real signs that the market probably would not trade lower (when I closed my 2nd short) and did not stick to it with misplaced hope.

 

Exactly the right thing to do... Good for you...

 

I am still wondering about managing my runners..in reality I didn't let it run.. I set a target of 1405.00 - I'd say that was not running... but the good news is, in spite of myself I am having a decent day..but not the day it could have been... Still better to have been long than wrong... (I was short earlier too).

[joshdance 10]

Can't catch 100% of every move Tom, you did well, and you'd be feeling pretty lousy if the market had reversed at 1406.50, come all the way back to 1401 and you'd closed it there... only in hindsight do we know whether our decision was the one that would have yielded the most profit.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's something to do for anyone who fancies it(now or another time). What is the average max move away from the VPOC the following day when a more than say 100,000 contracts are traded at the VPOC?

 

Since the beginning of 2010, very much usual max distance from VPOC to high or low the following day when over 100,000 volume at VPOC(21.5% of the time), is between 5-15 points. It does have a long 'tail' though all the way to more than 35 points.

 

250 days out of the data were 15.00 points or above max high or low from prior day VPOC and interestingly only 14.4% of these days followed a day with a VPOC of volume more than 100,000 contracts. Well, that doesn't really clear anything up. But you can tell how bored I am!!!! :crap: :crap: :crap: