Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

UPdate: I "expect" to be stopped out on this trade..my stop is easy $... the key is the 97.00 IMHO... If that holds then I may go long again but ......

 

12:28cst..Update to update: I am flat - took seveal ticks out...

 

 

I always look to position on counter-rotations during lunch and my B/E stop was in the way of the rotation so I am out..while currently there is no reason to exit other than the fact we didn't take the HOD out & based on my view of auction theory the stops are the magnet to do business... so rotation is next, IMHO... Of course I do run the risk this will hold but it seems very low probability I "suspect" 98.00 area is easy $... Let's see...

 

I have 1403.50 on my 03/14/07 profile. That high looks pretty poor and looks like it could be set up to blast through at some point. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow etc. etc.

[roztom 10]

Thanks for the number... I am flat & thinking I just might call it a day... I was thinking of a short but this thing is not worth it IMHO.. The channel is up, trend up, etc... "However" the way this is setting up in this chop it could break down - also the MP is very thinck up in the top part... so it is not a good trade so far...

 

As bullish as this market is, it is Friday and the market is long... if the buyers are taking a long weekend then the sellers may show up this afternoon...

 

I think "punt" is in order...

 

On days like this I like to think I can scalp but there is not enough range... In the old days I would picture 2 guys in the S&P pit hitting a whiffle ball across an empty pit when it traded like this...

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think "punt" is in order...

 

Don't you mean "pint"?

[roztom 10]

 

:haha: Don't you mean "pint"?

 

Several, at least...

 

I have decided to get a new rubber stamp made so I can put this on my forehead..

 

"Trade The Trade, NOT the $." My long was at 97.75... the key number was/is 97.00 for this up move to fsil..so using the wisdom of over 30 yrs of this I pulled my stop to B/E @ 97.75, no reason... and then bailed for several ticks... even B/E stop wasn't taken as of 1:17cst. Maybe those ticks are worth a pint for both of us...

 

Moral of the Story: "Trade The Trade, NOT the $." I hate when the Hyde takes over for Dr. Jeckal... :crap:

[roztom 10]

Gosu: I read one of your posts on the forum that you exit: All in/All out and do not believe in scaling.

 

Is that still true for you or have you changed what you do on managing your trade?

 

I basically trade 2 exits: 1 is short term high probability targets - usually where stops should be clustered on the other side and then a runner for something more signifigent.

 

The issue is when I take a loss on that full position including runner vs just taking it all out at the high probability target do I come out ahead? DO I really get anything over time with the runner?

 

Steve: Says the runner adds almost 50% to his net so it is a bit of a conundrum for me...

 

Since I am descretionary and vary the number of contracts I trade it is difficult for me to analyze..

 

Have you looked at that by any chance?

 

Tx

[TheNegotiator 13]

Several, at least...

 

I have decided to get a new rubber stamp made so I can put this on my forehead..

 

"Trade The Trade, NOT the $." My long was at 97.75... the key number was/is 97.00 for this up move to fsil..so using the wisdom of over 30 yrs of this I pulled my stop to B/E @ 97.75, no reason... and then bailed for several ticks... even B/E stop wasn't taken as of 1:17cst. Maybe those ticks are worth a pint for both of us...

 

Moral of the Story: "Trade The Trade, NOT the $." I hate when the Hyde takes over for Dr. Jeckal... :crap:

 

Yeah definitely. Though I'd point out that when the market trades like this, it kind of hynotically induces Mr Hyde if you're not careful!

[roztom 10]

Yeah definitely. Though I'd point out that when the market trades like this, it kind of hynotically induces Mr Hyde if you're not careful!

 

Yes..It is frustrating to still make these kinds of errors... When my brain drifts...Hyde takes over..It is like the non-trading side of the brain takes over...

 

"Don't lose $."

"Grab what you have"

"Don't let it turn into a loser (3 Tic risk)"

"You're going to get stopped anyway - just get out... blah,blah..."

 

Does this sound familiar? The problem with this is many times I do get out and the trade goes South..this is where descretion is a challange...consistent inconsistency..

 

That, amoung other reasons is why Hyde shows up..I do not have a mechanical rule for this but Market Structure should trump everything else...

[TheNegotiator 13]

First off I'd say accept how you are then deal with it. You are human just like the rest of us. Everyone gets tired, bored etc and ends up making mistakes.

 

As much as missing out is not great, what matters is what happens in the trade not what happens after. Example. Say today you are long around 96, you want a run on 1400's and it stops there. You might then have got out lower when it didn't break above. You might also be kicking yourself thinking that you could have got the nearer 1400's if you'd just held on to it for the move back up. But what if it broke down? What if when it got to 1400's you were greedy then it didn't break? It makes no difference what happens after. Trade your plan. That's the important thing.

 

Maybe here you didn't execute well, but no matter what anyone says you can't always trade perfectly. It's done, move on. Next trade please

[roztom 10]

The issue here is "We know we don't know." That is at least how I try to rationalize risk..my job is to take it at the right time..

 

The other part of my job is to manage risk, the trade and the exit... This is really the difficult part of the business...

 

One of the things I have never reconciled is whether to use market structure for being wrong or just exit when the trade drys up like it has today.. However the market structure for the upside is still intact as of 2p cst... so eventhough it looks like paint drying there is nothing structuarlly wrong with being long - other than the double top at HOD which seems like it might be taken out... if so 1402.00 - 1405.00 potential...who knows...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's something to do for anyone who fancies it(now or another time). What is the average max move away from the VPOC the following day when a more than say 100,000 contracts are traded at the VPOC?

[roztom 10]

Here's something to do for anyone who fancies it(now or another time). What is the average max move away from the VPOC the following day when a more than say 100,000 contracts are traded at the VPOC?

 

:helloooo: YIkes: I hope YOU know the answer...

[TheNegotiator 13]

The issue here is "We know we don't know." That is at least how I try to rationalize risk..my job is to take it at the right time..

 

The other part of my job is to manage risk, the trade and the exit... This is really the difficult part of the business...

 

One of the things I have never reconciled is whether to use market structure for being wrong or just exit when the trade drys up like it has today.. However the market structure for the upside is still intact as of 2p cst... so eventhough it looks like paint drying there is nothing structuarlly wrong with being long - other than the double top at HOD which seems like it might be taken out... if so 1402.00 - 1405.00 potential...who knows...

 

So true Tom. "We know we don't know". Gotta remember that after the event.

 

I don't know honestly what is best to use. I often use combo of microswing structure, volume profile levels, trend and activity(inc delta). I think overall though it's just important to not take a hit(or a big hit) when you're wrong. Good trades generally look after themselves. I would add though that a good trade isn't defined by one which gets onside. Hell, I've taken plenty on crap trades and lost a bundle on trades which initially go onside in the past.

[roztom 10]

So true Tom. "We know we don't know". Gotta remember that after the event.

 

I don't know honestly what is best to use. I often use combo of microswing structure, volume profile levels, trend and activity(inc delta). I think overall though it's just important to not take a hit(or a big hit) when you're wrong. Good trades generally look after themselves. I would add though that a good trade isn't defined by one which gets onside. Hell, I've taken plenty on crap trades and lost a bundle on trades which initially go onside in the past.

 

I'm ok with losing $ for the right reasons..that's part of the business..it's all the human errors that creep in and take a whack at the P&L... over time it is very expensive...

 

When you look at todays market here is the question: Is it better to be out since it is crap no matter what happens or better to stay in and get stopped when the market structure breaks down? Today 97.00 is the sweet spot, IMHO...

 

If it breaks, psycologically I will be rewarded..if it rallys then I will be punished...either way I lose... Structure should triumph over $... but how many of us would hang out in this market with no OTF present..?

[Steve66 10]

I'm ok with losing $ for the right reasons..that's part of the business..it's all the human errors that creep in and take a whack at the P&L... over time it is very expensive...

 

When you look at todays market here is the question: Is it better to be out since it is crap no matter what happens or better to stay in and get stopped when the market structure breaks down? Today 97.00 is the sweet spot, IMHO...

 

If it breaks, psycologically I will be rewarded..if it rallys then I will be punished...either way I lose... Structure should triumph over $... but how many of us would hang out in this market with no OTF present..?

 

I stayed out of trading the market today as part of my trading plan. I never trade on options/ futures expiration day. Instead I just sat on hands and back tested some strats I have been working on. One of the traders I trade with made 18 pts today. He averages 20 pts a day. It was business as usual for him. I guess its personal choice. If you played mid to upper range of initial balance today you made money. Looking back at the price action, my set-ups would have taken 8 points with no heat today. I may change my rule and devote some capital for the next expiration.

[roztom 10]

That's nice.. I try to just get the range and trade the meat I don't have the focus to trade the short rotations..I certianly see them but it is too intensive at this point, at least for me..

 

I got a short off this morning and a long on the way back up..after that I managed my last position and decided that was it for me..

 

If we had more range I would have done a few more but Monday isn't all that far away and often on OPX this is the kind of range we get...

 

Have a good wknd if I don't "see you."

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thx Tom you too. Have a great weekend everyone.

[steve46 12]

Today's open

 

This is the second test of 1400...and I expect it to have better odds of success....that is why I was waiting for the open today

 

My entry was confirmed by what I call (and have posted several times) an algorithmic reversal pattern...this is a low risk entry...you know you are wrong if it comes back to take out the entry by a tick or two....so the risk/reward is pretty good....at this point (about 6pm PST) we have aready tested 1402

 

By the way there was a second low risk entry at 1397.75....same basic configuration...and of course it was successfull as well....this is often the case when you have a trend move right off the Globex open...

Edited March 19, 2012 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

algorithmic reversal pattern...this is a low risk entry...you know you are wrong if it comes back to take out the entry by a tick or two....so the risk/reward is pretty good

 

Please explain this steve...

[roztom 10]

Today's open

 

This is the second test of 1400...and I expect it to have better odds of success....that is why I was waiting for the open today

 

My entry was confirmed by what I call (and have posted several times) an algorithmic reversal pattern...this is a low risk entry...you know you are wrong if it comes back to take out the entry by a tick or two....so the risk/reward is pretty good....at this point (about 6pm PST) we have aready tested 1402

 

By the way there was a second low risk entry at 1397.75....same basic configuration...and of course it was successfull as well....this is often the case when you have a trend move right off the Globex open...

 

I actually took a scalp off the long side when we held Fridays closing swing low... I was suprised it went further than I thought but after it broke out I thought it had more upside - 1405.00 area.

 

What is the reason for the sell-off?

[roztom 10]

Potential IRT Memory Leak

 

Over the weekend I upgraded to ver 10.5.c3 and I had a memory leak issue.. which became apparent during playback.

 

Today I upgraded to ver 10.5.c4 which was just released.. I do not know if this ver fixed it or not since I won't do my playback review until after market...

 

Just FYI...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Potential IRT Memory Leak

 

Over the weekend I upgraded to ver 10.5.c3 and I had a memory leak issue.. which became apparent during playback.

 

Today I upgraded to ver 10.5.c4 which was just released.. I do not know if this ver fixed it or not since I won't do my playback review until after market...

 

Just FYI...

 

Memory leak? What do you mean? You lost historical data?

[roztom 10]

A memory leak is when the application uses up available memory and does not release it back... if you open your task manager you will see the memory being used by IRT and in mine it kept climbing.. IT set an alert off in IRT... When memory useage gets too high the app will slow down or crash... mine didn't get thqat far but it was headed in that direction....

 

They did a fix yesterday Sunday and did a new release this morning but I have no idea if it's just my configuration or something else...

 

It is only severe on playback and I have not checked it during realtime or to see if the release this morning fixed it...

 

I sent them a copy of my database to test..

 

just FYI..

Edited March 19, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Oh right. I did have that actually on c2 i think. Just upgraded to c4.

[joshdance 10]

Potential IRT Memory Leak

 

I did not use c3 long enough to notice, upgraded to c4 today as well. I did notice this though on one of the betas ... it went up to almost 500K, which it has never done before, so that sounds very plausible tom...

 

As for today, I shorted 1401 and covered 1399, as the offers just above yesterday's high held very strongly, but due to the low relative volume (74% so far) and general balance I'm seeing, I did not want to push my luck and thought +2 might be a good place to close it.

 

So, we had lots of happy buyers above 1400, but met with responsive sellers. The attached chart is kind of how I see the lines drawn-- balance 1386 to 1394, and the upper portion of that, 1394 was tested and held overnight. Seems initially in this first hour like a day to play the range -- 1394 to 1401. Just an initial observation though.

 

What do you guys see this morning?

[TheNegotiator 13]

I see a test lower which failed then a test higher which kind of failed too. If 1400.25 holds for any length of time, I'd think they'll want to try for yesterday and overnight lows.